TFT Issue 3343!

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne Victory

KO: 08:05 (UK time)

The odds are dropping on the home win here, and I am not entirely sure why. Are folks reading too much into the Melbourne Victory form guide? I’ve opposed them more often than not this season, and I’ve been proven 100% correct to do so – but that doesn’t make them a crap team. It makes them a victim of circumstances, nothing more. I’ve maintained all along my belief that Melbourne Victory will become a very strong attack-minded team in due course, and I stand by that. All they were missing were available players.

Don’t get me wrong now; I thought Brisbane Roar deserved to beat them last time out. They looked fitter, faster, and more capable. However, I also thought that the scoreline was harsh on Victory, who were by no means battered, and I believe that they were suffering from a touch of low self esteem, based on the goals they conceded. The Victory fans are naturally ripping boss Brebner to shreds for it but I’m not sure what else he could do, really. If half of his star players weren’t fit for the game, then that’s just bad luck, I’m afraid. I think he’s done the best that he can with what’s been made available to him, in short. I mean, how many other teams would manage to avoid defeat when playing without one of their best defenders and virtually all of their attackers?

Slowly, but surely, Melbourne Victory are improving, and I would not be surprised if they got a positive result in Sydney today. Most of their absent players are now available selection, and although I don’t know if Brebner will risk playing any of them from the start, I have to believe that most of them will participate in at least part of this encounter. Ansell and Shotton will made a solid centre-back pairing, although against such a fast attack, I’m inclined to believe that Brebner will probably leave Ryan to partner Shotton. Gestede’s return affords them a natural target man and goal-scorer, and Folami’s return is yet another dynamic option in attack, which is sorely needed with Rojas still not looking anywhere close to the player he once was.

Kruse has improved with each passing game since returning from injury, which is encouraging. Pairing him with Folami, Kamsoba, Rojas, and Gestede should have the desired effect against a suspect Western Sydney Wanderers defence. Furthermore, although I’m not his biggest fan, I think that Brimmer has been superb for them this season, really getting around all over the park and even scoring a free-kick. Butterfield has contributed very well too, as you’d expect. McManaman is still injured but has been razor sharp when seen so again, this is not far away from being a seriously dangerous attacking team, and I believe we’ll see something closer to the end product on that front today.

No, I still don’t trust Victory to contain teams. They’re defending quite poorly against all manner of attacks right now, and with attack-minded full-backs either side of this relatively new centre-back pairing, not to mention a new goalkeeper between the sticks, it’s safe to say that Victory are nowhere near their best in defence. They’re still competing well enough though, and I’ve seen more than enough from them on the counter to believe that they’ll hurt other teams in due course, hopefully starting with Western Sydney Wanderers today.

Yes, I believe that the home team has more stability and consistency right now, and arguably a better manager. However, their own project is far from complete. I said pre-season that my biggest concerns for this team were the lack of replacement for target man Duke, and the lack of a centre-back partner for McGowan. Given that Robinson has often played with three centre-backs rather than two since taking over, that’s been even more problematic for this team. Mourdoukoutas simply isn’t good enough right now, and even Ziegler’s return from injury has done nothing because McGowan himself is now injured. This centre of defence looks really weak at the moment for Western Sydney Wanderers from all manner of situations. They’ve conceded so many goals from set pieces this season that it’s not even funny anymore. Still, on the plus side, they have found a replacement for Duke. Yes, the replacement for Duke is…well, Duke, as he’s decided to come back after his brief foray abroad.

The Western Sydney Wanderers attack will be even better for his return too. Cox is more of a poacher than anything; Duke brings height and power. Given the support that Western Sydney Wanderers have from midfield, it’s brilliant news for them that he’s back. Yeboah needs to get his head out of his arse after a poor few games now, and Ibini-Isei appears to have lost some of his speed but has at least gained power in doing so. With Kamau fit again, and Muller having now returned from injury, not to mention the ease in which ex-Melbourne Victory playmaker Troisi has settled in since his transfer from Adelaide United, I have to believe that this team will score goals.

Baccus is maturing more with each passing game, starting to look more like his brother. O’Doherty is getting back to his best too. This is rapidly becoming a very mobile, tenacious, and dangerous team. They’re only a couple of pieces short of being able to legitimately push for the title, especially given how splendidly young wing-back Russell has been this season, and Aquilina on the other side has done quite well too. One thing that has become quite clear about this team is that, whether they play well or not, they’re going to be hard to keep out. The speed and energy that they can introduce from the bench can change the dynamic of any game, and that’s one hell of a weapon to boast.

Western Sydney Wanderers are good in attack, to be blunt, but look disjointed in defence. Melbourne Victory have improved a lot in attack, and still have concerns of their own in defence. These two teams are seldom scared to go at one another, and both are far more capable than the bookies seem to think. Therefore, it’s over 3 goals for me.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 117/100.

Sibenik vs Istra 1961 

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

You know something? Despite being a woeful side on paper, Sibenik have been a real breath of fresh air in Croatia’s Prva Liga, at least in 2021. I’ve watched them on several occasions now and I’m genuinely staggered at how many opportunities they manage to carve out for themselves, even against Croatia’s elite. I mean, it may have looked like a smash-and-grab job, their victory away from home against reigning champions Dinamo Zagreb, but it really wasn’t. Yes, I thought Dinamo were poor on the day, but Sibenik displayed no fear of their more illustrious hosts, and were always looking to play balls in behind – and it paid off. 

Prior to that, they smashed a new-look Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-0 away from home; yet another team that was supposed to be too good for them. They’ve even drawn 2-2 away from home against a far superior Rijeka too. Indeed, I only believe they failed to overcome Varazdin at home last time out because key attacker Ampem couldn’t play, and he’s been instrumental in breaking teams down this season. He’s maturing his game too; rather than just being a direct attacking threat, he’s now starting to get his head up and find those around him at the right time too. Out of all of their squad, it looks likely that he’ll be the first to leave for bigger and better things in the summertime.

I do find it strange that all of these random players have come together and started playing well as one though. None of them are marvellous, but Rendulic has unearthed some gems and gotten the best out of far more players than I’d have thought possible. Take Hajduk Split attacker Sahiti, for example. His performances at his parent club were decidedly immature last time he played there. Now? He looks better than any that Hajduk Split are fielding! Juric is never going to be a top player but he remains a constant handful as a good pressing forward. Keep an eye out for Bulat too, who looks just as capable going forward as he does at getting back. 

Despite this being a somewhat young group of misfits and outcasts, Rendulic has managed to use them to make Sibenik into a team that nobody in Croatia really wants to face right now. They’re not a special team, and they’ve not found the next Messi, but they look fitter, faster, and smarter than most at the moment. They’re finding it far easier to score goals, and they look very confident, which was the case even before they started taking points off Croatia’s best teams away from home. With Ampem back today, I have to believe that Sibenik will continue to deliver impressive displays.

What can Istra 1961 really do about that? On paper, there’s not supposed to be much between these two teams but you wouldn’t know it based on their respective outputs. Istra 1961 are not getting battered by anyone but they’ve lost all four of their recent games, the only one of which they managed to score in was their derby against Rijeka. Yes, they’ve had hard games, and they’ve demonstrated a great deal of resolve, but they’re not going to stay up unless they start scoring goals.

At the start of this season, I thought Sibenik were relegated for sure. Now? I’m finding it hard to look beyond Istra 1961. Lokomotiva Zagreb will always be able to call upon big brothers Dinamo Zagreb for aid, should they need it – I very much doubt that the reigning champions will let their ‘pet’ get relegated, and Varazdin have another level or two to go to. Are things really going to get any better for Istra 1961? I don’t think so, because I’ve no reason to believe such. They’re slow in attacking, incredibly predictable, and not good enough to keep teams out, no matter how organised they are. I know they’ve just added forward Bande from Ajax but it’s still not enough for me.

To be fair, Istra 1961 have walked this tightrope for a long time now, though. They’ve got some very experienced heads to call upon, and they know how to battle hard enough to grind out points sometimes, so I won’t write them off just yet. I do fear for them, though. There’s not enough quality in any area of the pitch, and unless they’re playing on their own atrocious pitch, few things seem to go well for the minnows. Only a goal from Ivancic separated the two teams when they last met in the reversal of this fixture, and Sibenik have come on leaps and bounds since then.

With the above in mind, 13/10 looks far too long for the home win here so that’s what I’ll be taking a punt on.

Verdict: Sibenik to win at 13/10.

Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro

KO: 00:30 (UK time)

Although a draw is not the end of the world for either team, there aren’t so many Copa Libertadores places up for grabs, and there are very few games remaining in Brazil’s Serie A. With that in mind, as well as the attacking tendency of each of the two managers in charge tonight, I have to believe that both of them will actively try to win the game, and that’s despite the likelihood of Sao Paulo continuing their most bizarre implosion.

The fact that Fluminense are even in this race at all is a massive feather in the cap of boss Hellmann, who has truly gotten the best out of his squad this season. It’s not unfair to call it a rather limited squad either. For at least half of the campaign, thirty-nine year old creator Nene has been playing like a mid-twenties man, wonderkid Marcos Paulo has been phenomenal, and even outcast Ganso has looked good (when fit). Fred has done a decent enough job as a target man, and the rest of their forwards bring so much speed that the job of the creators is made a lot easier.

Robust is probably the best term to use when describing Fluminense. Hellmann knows that, if sat back in a Sao Paulo or Corinthians-esque manner, Fluminense would lose most games. However, by pressing sometimes, playing an attacking style, and basically sticking to their strengths, the Rio de Janeiro outfit can spring surprises. That has happened a lot this season. They’ve been very entertaining, very fun to watch, and their games usually involve a fair amount of goals as a consequence. There are worse defences than theirs at Serie A level – but not many. In my mind, that makes them an ideal over 2.5 goals candidate, including for tonight’s hosting of Atletico Mineiro.

On paper, you’d have to favour the visitors here. Sampaoli is an extremely good manager; too good for this level, in all honesty. He’s both inherited and assembled a very good, fluid Atletico Mineiro side that looks just as good on the break as they do from open play. I can’t say that they’ve been amazing lately, mind you. They seem to have lost some of their tenacity  and energy, which is more than understandable as Brazil easily has the longest football campaign of any country I’ve ever come across. I mean, at least half of the division participate in four competitions per season. How do you begin to deal with that if you’re in charge of Fluminense, for example? Utter madness.

Still, I thought Atletico Mineiro would have forded this particular stream better than they have, given the depth in their squad. The only leeway I’ll grant the Belo Horizonte outfit is that they’re worse hit than most in Brazil when it comes to internationals, and the Brazilian FA cannot and will not postpone matches during the international break so they’ve drawn the short straw there. They’re more than good enough to beat each team playing in Brazil though, such is the quality that Sampaoli has brought in, and the attacking style that they play.

Their somewhat fatigued displays of late fused with the absence of leading goal-scorer Keno makes me not fancy taking on the away win though. I recognise just how much quality and variety remains in this Atletico Mineiro line-up, even without Keno, but I’m not convinced it’ll be enough to see them overcome a very determined, confident Fluminense side. Marrony’s leading of the line involves a lot of speed and intelligent runs but he’s not quite got the nous that Keno has at this time so things don’t always happen at the end of such. Still, with Sasha, Vargas, Hyoran, Savarino, and Allan in the equation, Atletico Mineiro are going to ensure that they’re very much in this game, and it’s not all that challenging to score against Fluminense anyway.

What confuses me the most about Atletico Mineiro is their defending though. When at full-strength, they’re actually quite good. I appreciate that they play attacking football, for the most part, but it’s not done chaotically so there’s no real excuse for them not keeping more clean sheets than they have this season. With Evertson in goal, and Alonso to organise everything, I would have thought they’d do more to contain teams, Atletico Mineiro. Instead, they just rely on their midfield pressing to prevent teams from getting near their goal rather than focusing on defending properly, which naturally doesn’t work as well when energy levels dip – like now.

Subsequently, I’m left feeling like we’ll see a game in which both teams will create some very good chances. Neither fears the other, and both could do with the win, so as long as nerves aren’t in place from the start, backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 makes sense to me.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.