We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.
Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.
Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.
KO: (UK time)
Although not playing fabulously, Chelsea have been grinding out positive results under Tuchel, and I expect more of the same tonight. What better way to introduce yourself to a highly impatient club than to win some silverware, after all? The FA Cup should be very much on Chelsea’s agenda too. There may be some rotation here, but as annoying as Barnsley can be to break down, I still anticipate the Londoners winning on the night.
Verdict: Chelsea to win at 3/10.
KO: (UK time)
Even with rotation, there’s no way that Benfica should let this opportunity pass them by. They’re facing Estoril, a team that should really be playing in the same division as them, based on their squad, but they’ve really not applied themselves well enough this season and may not be promoted because of it. They’ve been poor lately, even losing at home against Academica de Coimbra at weekend, so Benfica should not really struggle to beat them here, even if they do concede their token goal along the way.
Verdict: SL Benfica to win at 2/5.
KO: (UK time)
This game between Tigres UANL of Mexico and Bayern Munich of Germany is the FIFA World Club Cup final, which is being played in Qatar. Much like the bookies, I don’t have any real doubts over Bayern Munich ultimately winning the trophy because of their quality, experience, and match-winners.
However, what I would say is what I’ve said for quite a while now; Bayern Munich are not playing especially well. It’s difficult to fault a team, especially when they’re still winning games whether they’re playing well or not, but it only takes one plucky opponent to derail them. That’s what happened in the DFB Pokal when Holstein Kiel upset all odds to dump the reigning champions out, and that’s what should have come to pass against both Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg, who gave the Bundesliga champions one hell of a match apiece. Even their more impressive wins on paper of late (e.g. 4-0 vs Schalke 04) were flattering in terms of the way the game went.
Bayern Munich have this innate ability to grind out wins, you see. I admire that about them. They’re natural winners, and they only need half a chance to punish teams. That’s why it’s less apparent when they’re not at their best, really – the form guide will still show them to be performing well. Although I’ll freely admit that they’re performing better now than they did in January, I’m still not convinced with them, especially at the back. In attack, Lewandowski, Muller etc. will always give the team a damn good chance, and that won’t change in Qatar tonight. That defence is getting worse, though.
For the life of me, I can’t quite figure out why Real Madrid apparently want Alaba from Bayern Munich. That’s the story that has dominated the German media for a while, you see – the Austrian is out of contract in summer, and won’t sign an extension. Now, if he were to be used as a left-back, I’d agree with the interest in him. However, everybody – including Bayern Munich themselves – want him to be a centre-back, and that’s just madness because he’s not intelligent enough to play in that position. A lot of Bayern Munich’s defensive problems this season have come when either he, Boateng, or both of them are in the middle of defence. They’re simply too erratic, and at his age, I’m inclined to believe that Alaba is not going to get any better than he already is. Christ, I’d even have him as a defensive midfielder over a centre-back!
So, yes – that’s the problem here; Boateng and Alaba. Sule does a sterling job but isn’t an especially injury-free centre-back. Hernandez can come in and play in that position, Pavard is better there but is generally deployed as a right-back, and thus Flick is left with playing players in the middle of defence that shouldn’t be there. Subsequently, when this high-pressing team gets undone by a simple diagonal over the top over their centre-backs on an alarmingly regular basis, I cannot claim to be surprised. Again, it shows less and less because of how wonderful they are at attacking but this team seems to be actively craving an opponent to batter them because they’ve done nothing to address this problem. Luckily for them, not many teams in Germany are good enough to score as many as they are, and that’s the reality of the Bundesliga.
In a FIFA World Club Cup final in Qatar against unfamiliar opponents, though? I can see that defensive problem of theirs being made more apparent, shall we say? It’s been some months since I last covered Mexican football but I remember Tigres UANL being a very confident, attack-minded team. As a club, they spent most of their money on attacking talent rather than trying to balance the squad out, wholly confident in their ability to keep the ball, thus keeping teams away from their goal. It’s not a great defence by any strength of the imagination, but it is a great midfield, at least by Mexican standards.
With Aquino, Carioca, and Pizarro controlling proceedings whilst Fernandez and Quinones support Gignac, it’s not hard to figure out why this team is never far away from goals. I was very scornful of Gignac during his time in Europe because his finishing was woeful but with age he’s gotten a lot better at it, especially in the air. The support he gets is excellent, and that’s why the Frenchman has found the net as often as he has in the Liga MX this season. They were confident enough in their squad to let experienced Chilean attacker Vargas join Atletico Mineiro in Brazil too, which should tell you just how powerful they consider their attack to be.
I have to reiterate that I still expect Bayern Munich to win the trophy tonight because they’re good enough to do it via one method or another. However, I also feel confident that Tigres UANL have enough about them to make the European champions sweat for it. Both teams are very good in possession of the ball, and Bayern Munich will push out against Tigres UANL more than most Mexican teams dare to nowadays. With that space, the Central American side should be very dangerous, and I’d like to think that they’d bag at least one goal as a consequence of such, even if they do end up losing.
I think it’ll be an interesting game, and it’s one that I rather like the look of backing both teams to score in, especially at generous odds of evens – few games slip by nowadays without Bayern giving away at least three really good opportunities away.
Verdict: Both teams to score at evens.
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
English FA Cup:
Wolverhampton Wanderers – Podence, Ait-Nouri, Boly, Marcal, and Jimenez are absent.
Southampton – Walker-Peters returns. Minamino, Walcott, Smallbone, and Jankewitz are absent. Armstrong is a doubt.
Barnsley – Halme, Kitching, and Williams are absent. Palmer and Sibbick return. Morris is absent. Dike may debutise.
Chelsea – Ziyech and Kante will start. Silva is absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Netanya – Ezra, Banda, Jaaber, and Ashkenazi are absent. Doumbia and Tsedek may debutise. Sehovic returns.
Beitar Jerusalem – Zehavi, Verdasca, Matheusinho, Jankovic are absent. Olsak may debutise.
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
FIFA World Club Cup:
Al Ahly vs Palmeiras (6) 0-1
Tigres UANL vs Bayern Munich (6) 1-2
Belgian Cup:
Germinal Beerschot vs KV Mechelen (4) 1-2
AA Gent vs Sporting Charleroi (6) 1-0
Union Saint-Gilloise vs RSC Anderlecht (5) 1-2
Czechia Cup:
Slovan Liberec vs Viktoria Zizkov (6) 1-0
Danish DBU Pokalen:
OB vs FC Midtjylland (5) 1-2
Vejle vs Randers (5) 2-1
English FA Cup:
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Southampton (5) 1-1
Barnsley vs Chelsea (7) 0-1
French Coupe de France:
Sochaux-Montbeliard vs AS Saint-Etienne (5) 1-1
Angers SCO vs Stade Rennais (5) 1-2
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Netanya vs Beitar Jerusalem (5) 2-1
Dutch KNVB Beker:
SC Heerenveen vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (5) 2-2
Portuguese Taca de Portugal:
Estoril vs SL Benfica (7) 0-2
Spanish Copa del Rey:
Athletic Club vs Levante (6) over 2.5 goals
We will send our latest tips straight to your email inbox. We typically send 5 free tips per week.