TFT Issue 3345!

Free

Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Inter Turku vs IFK Mariehamn

KO: (UK time)

Based on the displays of these two teams last weekend, anything but an Inter Turku win here would be very surprising. I still think that Inter Turku have some adjusting to do in defensive situations but their attack – especially bludgeoning Furuholm – looked really impressive indoors against FC Honka Espoo. By contrast, IFK Mariehamn looked a good couple of weeks away from fitness, their newbies not even close to being on the same page, making the win for Haka Valkeakoski at weekend all the easier for their hosts. I don’t doubt that the islanders will improve but perhaps it was a tad adventurous of me to expect it to be as fast as I did. Either way, at this moment in time, I trust in a home win.

Verdict: Inter Turku to win at 11/50.

Featured game

Bologna vs Benevento

KO: (UK time)

I’m expecting one hell of a battle here because Mihailjovic team hosting a southern team will almost certainly produce fire, and probably cards too. These two teams have gotten to where they are in Serie A this season by attempting to outwork their opponents, which has generally worked well. I suspect we’ll see a very energetic game in Italy tonight.

It’s hard to describe Mihailjovic’s work as progressive because he always seems about the same to be. As a short-term booster, he’s a great manager to have in charge. As time goes by though, it becomes more and more apparent that he doesn’t contribute enough in the long-term. It’s still tremendous fun to watch a Mihailjovic team play because they press hard, always want to attack with speed and flair, and always do their utmost to outscore their opponents. That approach saw them beat Parma away from home in their regional derby last time out too. There’s no consistency in this squad, though, which is ironically just like every other team from this general area of Italy; extremely entertaining, but not very consistent.

Still, the one thing you’re guaranteed in a Bologna game, with or without Mihailjovic, is a fight. They’ve always been battlers because, well, they’ve had to be, bearing in mind their financial problems of the past, and their relegation to Serie B. They’ve done things the hard way, Bologna, and those fighting traits have endured the test of time. Having the nutcase Serbian at the helm only enhances their ability to run themselves into the ground, if indeed it can be labelled as an ‘ability’. 

Bologna are seldom far away from goals, and I expect nothing different tonight because if you break through the Benevento resistance in midfield, you’ll generally not struggle to score goals. It’s their work-rate that stops most teams in their tracks, not their defending. Bologna aren’t going to shy away from that challenge though. This is the kind of team that has constant threats lurking in the channels too, meaning that they’re especially dangerous from turnovers, and that they can never be completely out of a match. 

You can praise Barrow if you want; he’s a real handful, although his finishing has taken a backseat since his loan move from Atalanta Bergamo became a permanent transfer. Palacio is an outstanding professional; to still be in the condition he is at thirty-nine speaks volumes about his dedication to the cause. Orsolini remains a phenomenal dribbler on his day but his diving does let him down. Soriano has been spectacular this season, and both Poli and Sansone are very capable players too. Despite that large list of capable players though, do you know who has impressed me the most for Bologna this season? Japanese full-back Tomiyasu. I think he’s got bags of potential. He’s as diligent in attack as he is in defence, very comfortable on the ball, and is naturally quick. I don’t like it when he’s forced to play at centre-back sometimes because it doesn’t suit him, but as a full-back he’s been excellent, and I can’t help but feel that he’s destined for bigger things. 

So – what are Benevento going to do to contain such an attack-minded team? That’s the real question here. On one hand, I think they’ll be delighted to be facing another team that is expected to beat them because Benevento are a counterattacking team. They’re not the best at converting chances in general so creating better chances by virtue of exploiting space in behind defenders tends to improve their conversion rate. That side of things is just peachy for the southerners because Bologna will come at them tonight. 

However, part of me thinks that they’ll also be dreading this game for a couple of reasons. Firstly, they’ve given absolutely everything for Filippo Inzaghi this season, and he’s had more than 200% out of them on a lot of occasions. They’re starting to look a tad weary to me though, which has led to effectiveness dropping. Bearing in mind that this is an average team at the best of times, that’s led to a run of games without a win. Benevento are the kind of team that always deserve more than they typically get from games, but they’re not going to survive relegation based purely on merit, so they need to find a solution.

The second problem is that Benevento are going to find it hard to rival Bologna for stamina and intensity. Usually, Benevento hold the high ground in such games but Bologna cover a lot of ground, and if that particular advantage is denied for the visitors, I struggle to envision them troubling this accomplished Bologna side. That’s especially true because winger Improta and experienced creator Ionita are out here, meaning it’s all about pressing forward Lapadula, classy but out-of-sorts Falque, clever Caprari, and maybe a touch of Finnish magic from Hetemaj. It’s not a lot for Bologna to worry about basically, not that they ever worry about anything defensively, fully confident in that they’ll concede in most games anyway!

Benevento are running low on things to utilise tonight that can upset Bologna, to put it bluntly. I’ve really enjoyed watching Benevento this season because they do attack teams well; it’s just that they’re not clinical enough. I would be very sad to see them go down. However, football is not a sympathetic sport, and Bologna need to survive too. The bottom line here is that Bologna have better players, and are more experienced at beating the drop. For me, particularly on the back of a dominant derby win, backing Bologna to pick up a much-needed three points at 4/5 is a risk worth taking.

Verdict: Bologna to win at 4/5.

Additional games

Macarthur FC vs Adelaide United

KO: (UK time)

My initial thoughts for this game were to go under 2.5 goals. Macarthur FC were really clever against Brisbane Roar, defending well, and actually unearthing some semblance of counterattack. It was a marked improvement from them, and if they can control Brisbane Roar, then they can control Adelaide United too. However, today’s proposition is a little different because the Sydney outfit have to play on the front foot. I’m not saying that they can’t win it, but it involves them playing a bit more adventurously, and Adelaide United are extremely fast at the other end. In fact, if returning hero Craig Goodwin was able to represent the visitors today, I’d probably take a punt on the away win with draw no bet cover. As it happens, he’s in quarantine, and The Reds are missing defenders so the 1×2 market is pretty much off the table for me. Goals, though? Yes, I like that idea.

Macarthur FC were smart against Brisbane Roar, and not just because they managed to win the game, but because they managed to rest players too. The likes of Meredith, Puyo, and Jovanovic all get to return today as fresh players rather than the team being fielded looking totally knackered. It’s good rotation from Milicic, really – I’ve already seen Victory and Glory make a mess of similar situations this season. Still – three games in six days. It’s a slog; there’s no getting around that, and now they have to play on the front foot against a rapid counterattacking team that has a lot more stamina than them? Ouch.

The teams that have hurt Adelaide United the most this season are those that have high pressed them. That’s knocked the wind out of their youngsters’ sails, and prevented their more experienced forwards from getting involved. As good as Macarthur FC have been lately, they can’t play that way. Therefore, they’re going to inadvertently invite Adelaide United into this match, whether they want to or not – and The Reds always score goals when such situations arise. Therefore, I’m not as easily seduced by the odds on the home win as some are.

I get it, though. Strain is still out, now defensive organiser Jakobsen is out, and veteran Spaniard Lopez is out again. On an ideal day, that’s three of their back four. So, yes – I agree that Macarthur FC should at least have fun there. That’s especially true now that Susaeta has remembered how to be a top-drawer winger again, and now that striker Derbyshire finally broke his duck. The chemistry between their players in the final third is a lot stronger now, enough so for them to even omit live wire Rose for today’s game because they don’t feel like they need him. The above, fused with the natural set piece threat that Macarthur FC carry, makes me not doubt goals for the home team.

Part of me still thinks that this game will suit the visitors, though. They’re a lot fresher, they’ll have more space to break against a slow defence, and they get to play as underdogs. They’ve got boatloads of industry in midfield, and so many willing runners into channels too. Containing them is annoying. Sure, I think Macarthur FC can probably marshal big Juric up front quite well, but Halloran? Toure? Dukuly? I’m not buying it. Those fellas have annoyed more than one defence already this season, and unless they’re denied the ball to begin with, they’ll do it again.

Adelaide United are goal-scorers, basically. Yes, it’s a young team, and they’ve made some naive mistakes this season, but they’re a good team, and it’s important not to lose sight of that. Some situations will favour them more than others at this time, and it’s particularly poignant to keep that in mind until they get to dictate what happens in games, which will happen more when Goodwin can play again. For me, today’s trip to Sydney ticks a lot of boxes for the visitors, and although I don’t believe they’ll leave with a clean sheet, I can see them scoring a goal or two at the bare minimum. For my money, this is the hardest attack that Macarthur FC have had to face this season, all things considered, and I’m curious to see how they handle it.

For me, it’s an over 2.5 goals game.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Macarthur FC – Popovic, Ruhs, and Rose are absent. Jovanovic, Meredith, and Puyo return.
Adelaide United – Strain, Lopez, Jakobsen, and Kitto are absent. Niyongabire returns. 

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

OH Leuven Duplus, Aguemon, Kehli, Osabutey, and Schuermans are absent.
Kortrijk – D’Haene and de Sart are absent.

Croatian Prva Liga:

Varazdin
Lokomotiva Zagreb – 

Czechia Liga 1:

Slovacko – Cicilia and Danicek are absent.
Teplice – Shejbal and Plachy are absent. Knapik is a doubt.

German Bundesliga:

RB Leipzig – Forsberg, Hartmann, Henrichs, Novoa, Laimer, and Szoboszlai are absent. Kluivert is a doubt.
Augsburg – Iago and Moravek are absent. Framberger and Finnbogason are doubts.

German Bundesliga 2:

Hannover 96 – Doumbouya, Evina, Falette, Frantz, Gudra, Lamti, Maini, Ratajczak, Sundermann, and Twumasi are absent.
Paderborn 07 – Michel is absent.
Holstein Kiel – Awuku, Komenda, and van den Bergh are absent.
Wurzburger Kickers – Hemmerich is absent. 

Italian Serie A:

Bologna – Svanberg and Santander are absent. Farago and Medel are doubts.
Benevento – Improta, Ionita, and Volta are absent. Letizia is a doubt.

Italian Serie B:

Monza – Paletta is absent.
Pisa – Masucci, Masetti, Sibilli, Iacobucci, and Marin are absent. 

Dutch Eredivisie:

RKC Waalwijk – Ngonge and El Haddouti are absent.
FC Emmen – Bij, Caciano, Carty, and Kolar are absent.

Portuguese Liga 1:

Famalicao – Neto is absent.
Belenenses – Varela is absent. Kau is a doubt.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Celta de Vigo Alvarez and Junca are absent.
Elche – Barri is absent.

Swiss Challenge League:

FC Wil – Kamber, Abubakar, Ismaili, and Zumberi are absent. Blasucci, Mettler, Sarcevic, Sauter, and Talabidi are doubts.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Efendic, da Silva, Dalvand, and Ramovic are absent. Albizua is a doubt.
FC Thun – Sutter, Salanovic, and Castroman are absent.
Grasshopper Zurich – Acheffay, Morandi, Nadjack, and Salvi are absent. 

Turkish Super Lig:

Rizespor – Remy, Umar, and Koybasi are absent.
BB Erzurumspor – Obertan and Rashani are absent.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Australian A-League:

Macarthur FC vs Adelaide United (5) 2-2

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

OH Leuven vs Kortrijk (5) 1-1

Bulgarian A PFG:

Botev Plovdiv vs Arda (6) 2-1

Croatian Prva Liga:

Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (5) 0-0

Czechia Liga 1:

Slovacko vs Teplice (6) 2-1

Finnish Suomen Cup:

Inter Turku vs IFK Mariehamn (7) 2-0

German Bundesliga:

RB Leipzig vs Augsburg (6) 1-0

German Bundesliga 2:

Hannover 96 vs Paderborn 07 (5) over 2.5 goals
Holstein Kiel vs Wurzburger Kickers (6) 2-1

Hungarian Liga 1:

Ujpest vs Diosgyori VTK (5) 1-0

Italian Serie A:

Bologna vs Benevento (6) 2-1

Italian Serie B:

Monza vs Pisa (6) 2-1

Dutch Eredivisie:

RKC Waalwijk vs FC Emmen (5) 1-1

Portuguese Liga 1:

Famalicao vs Belenenses (6) 1-0

Spanish Primera Liga:

Celta de Vigo vs Elche (4) 1-1

Swiss Challenge League:

FC Thun vs Grasshopper Zurich (5) 2-1
FC Wil vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (5) 0-1

Turkish Super Lig:

Rizespor vs BB Erzurumspor (5) 2-1

The Footy Tipster logo

Sign up to our email newsletter to receive free tips

We will send our latest tips straight to your email inbox. We typically send 5 free tips per week.

Get free tips