TFT Issue 3346!

KuPS vs SJK

KO: 11:00 (UK time)

Please check the line-ups before getting involved here, folks. That is always good practice anyway, but it’s especially true here. Last weekend, KuPS gave their star foreigners an extra period off for whatever reason. The Suomen Cup is not taken in a massively serious way by the Finns so I wouldn’t be surprised if KuPS continued to do the same here.

The KuPS starting eleven can beat any Finnish team on their day. A KuPS A/B team mix, however, cannot. They won at Ilves last weekend, which pleased me, but they did so via their opponents having made too many pre-season changes. KuPS do have some good Finnish players, especially since star midfielder Nissila returned, negating the loss of Pennanen (for a third time!). Popovits, Tomas, and especially winger Haarala were all seriously good additions to this KuPS squad, and they should continue to impress as the season goes on.

The reality is that KuPS do rely on their foreigners a lot though, as do most Veikkausliiga clubs. Defensive midfielder Adjei-Boateng, arguably the best in the division in that position, didn’t play last weekend. Star Nigerian winger Sale didn’t play last weekend. Regular striker Udoh didn’t play last weekend. Two of those players are absolutely quintessential to the Kuopio club’s plans. I appreciate that today’s hosts have a real knack of replacing players that they lose, and they’re almost certainly going to lose all three of them at some stage. Whilst they remain KuPS players though, they’re needed – and it looks like they won’t be playing.

There are some teams I would still take KuPS to beat with this squad, as I did with Ilves last weekend. I would take them to beat AC Oulu, Haka Valkeakoski, KTP, IFK Mariehamn, and HIFK at this moment in time – but not SJK. I think that it requires a great deal to actually overcome the Seinajoki club nowadays, now that they’ve found a manager that they’ve not wanted to sack – Honkavaara. That’s especially relevant here, given that KuPS is the club he was poached from last season so he knows quite a number of these players really well already.

It took him a while, but Honkavaara has really whipped SJK into shape now. People doubted them last weekend, as I recall, and the odds kept rising on them winning in Oulu, which I found very strange. They were excruciatingly close to qualifying for the UEFA Europa League last season but a poor start to the campaign plus Covid-19’s intervention meant that it didn’t happen. Do not write this team off, though. They’re certainly not the bottlers that they have been for the past three years, which would shy away from battling teams, and be afraid of competition.

No, this is the real SJK, the one that was supposed to exist at least four years ago. This is a very settled group that made few losses and a number of good signings pre-season as Honkavaara honed his squad, ready for a proper push. Isaksson left, but was generally on the peripheral anyway. Rashkaj, Kujanpaa – same. Chavez – the writing was on the wall for him when he was demoted to their “B” team. I was only surprised that they didn’t let Ions go because he’s been a shadow of his former self since his bad injury, and no longer looks capable of positively contributing at Veikkausliiga level, despite the excellent work he did prior to the injury.

Backaliden from IFK Mariehamn joined, and he’s an excellent creator; very dynamic. Arciero, Valencia, and Akpan will improve the competitive nature of the squad, and ensure that the team has even less chance of being bullied by opponents. They should control games better because of Akpan too. With Atakiyi still on the flank (he matured so much last season), Ledesma ghosting his way into the box, tricky Ngueukam still battling his way past every opponent, towering Jervis arriving late in the box, Hetemaj pulling the strings, and clever Oliynyk making intelligent runs, SJK have an attack that most other Veikkausliiga teams should fear now. It’s varied, experienced, and wholly dangerous. 

They’re aided by the likes of Murilo and Markkula getting forward too, the latter of which used to be a winger anyway. I love that Vainionpaa is still with the club; he showed more than enough quality and maturity last season to have moved on. The team plays with more passion and fight when the youngster is on the pitch though, and remaining in Seinajoki can only benefit SJK. They really do have the lot this season, SJK, and any additions they’ve made have only been to improve the squad a little here and there because the building blocks are very much in place now. I expect good things from them this season, and they won’t get a better chance to win in Kuopio than they have today, with the above in mind.

For me, it’s an SJK win with draw no bet cover at 33/20 with the proviso that KuPS are still resting Sale, Udoh, and Boateng. 

Verdict: SJK to win with draw no bet at 33/20.

HJK vs HIFK

KO: 11:45 (UK time)

I opposed HJK last weekend with a +2 Asian Handicap because they were priced far too short away from home against a good, familiar, and well-organised FC Lahti. The game typically ended 1-1, and both teams were reduced to ten men, the result of which is that defender O’Shaughnessy will be suspended for today’s derby.

Am I concerned by the above? Not in the slightest. HJK has the biggest and best squad in Finland with two players per position, for the most part. The only position I don’t see two players for is defensive midfield; they miss Djalo when he doesn’t play. Other than that, they’re good to go at all times, HJK. I think that the draw in Lahti helped them shake off a little rust, which helps. They’re still the best team in the country so I’m inclined to believe that they’ll show more of what they’re about in more familiar surroundings today.

In the Veikkausliiga, these two teams tend to share the same stadium. This match is being played indoors for obvious reasons though, which is almost always the case at this time of year in Finland, and therefore I’m expecting a little bit of an ‘away’ feel for HIFK today, which is something they’ve not had against HJK for ages now. It’ll be a challenge for them, even moreso than usual, given that HJK are by far the best team in the nation’s capital.

Despite winning at weekend against KTP (which says more about KTP than about HIFK), I have very real concerns about HIFK this season. They lost some seriously good players both in the middle of last season and pre-season this time around; players that are yet to be properly replaced. Take Mattsson, for example. Since the mid-season change of management in their last campaign, he was one of HIFK’s most dangerous creative threats, playing out on the wing – but he’s gone to Vejle in Denmark now, although has been loaned back to the Veikkausliiga to play for IFK Mariehamn. Fofana was another star for them last season; he’s gone to Vejle. Vitinho played regularly last season; he’s gone back to Vejle too, as has Luiz Henrique. Basically, I’m left wondering who will be creating and scoring for HIFK this season. Big Tukiainen is always going to be a threat in attack but he’s not a danger to anyone without service, you know?

True enough, they still have Yaghoubi, and he’s a brilliant playmaker when he wants to be. Mattila is a solid enough maintainer for them too, who had a really good campaign last season playing alongside Yaghoubi. Again, though – where will the goals come from? They’ve recently taken a punt on young forward Streng from SJK, who scored a considerable amount of goals for their “B” team last season, but is unproven at Veikkausliiga level. They also did some good business with SJK for Isaksson, who is a good midfielder at this level. Other than that, they’ve taken wild punts on random players, and have made plenty of changes to their squad. That’s not the kind of foundation a team needs before taking on the best team in the country, to be frank.

Therefore, I’m left feeling like HJK should beat them without much fuss here. The Riski brothers can decide any game in favour of HJK, they’ve still got Tanaka, who is a class act. They’ve re-signed Slovenian attacker Valencic from Inter Turku, who is yet another match-winner in the final third (as if they didn’t have enough already!). Jair has joined; another hard-working creator. Even losing the likes of Schuller and Vayrynen pre-season should not greatly impact HJK, whose only real challenge this season is managing to give enough minutes to the entire squad to keep everybody happy, such is the quality in depth.

It may take some time before they’re at peak sharpness, HJK, so perhaps this tip is a bit bold on my part. I trust in their quality, experience, and depth though. I also think that boss Koskela keeps them as honest as he can with their playing style, and I believe that now is a really good time to face HIFK, who have made too many changes pre-season. I’m not saying that those changes will be bad ones, but they’re the kind that they need to be proven that they work rather than the assumption being that they will for obvious reasons. Therefore, I’m going to back a more familiar, consistent HJK to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap in this Suomen Cup derby which, given the new format of the competition, the hosts really need to win.

Verdict: HJK to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 5/4.

Heidenheim vs Erzgebirge Aue

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

The Heidenheim form guide of late hasn’t been particularly flattering but I still fancy their chances today. I’m not going to lose sleep over their recent outings because there’s a reason behind every failed win. A draw away from home against potent Karlsruher SC is always a good result at Bundesliga 2 level. Defeat on a rough pitch against desperate Eintracht Braunschweig in a game that could have gone either way? I’m not concerned. Defeat at home against St. Pauli is not ideal, but St. Pauli have been on fire since Burgstaller returned from injury. I’m not saying Heidenheim are happy with this run, but more than it simply makes sense that they’ve done what they’ve done.

I’m actually very excited about Heidenheim for the rest of this season because they were savvy enough to re-sign Kleindienst up front. Instead of rotating him with new recruit Kuhlwetter though, boss Schmidt is making them play alongside one another, which goes some distance as to explaining how St. Pauli bagged four against them! Still, they’re going to score a lot of goals playing this way because those two players are goal machines at this level. Whether Kuhlwetter can keep this up into next season or not remains to be seen, but Kleindienst is too good for this level. Those two combining is a lethal concept, and I look forward to seeing where it takes Heidenheim.

They’re not perfect, Heidenheim, but when you have a manager who has been in charge for as long as Schmidt has, there’s always this calmness and cohesion that I really admire about this team. Without being amongst the best teams in the division, they often perform as one. Heidenheim don’t struggle to create chances, they move the ball well, and they always score goals. Their best characteristic is being able to replace players they’ve lost, though. They just never seem to struggle on that front. When I saw Glatzel was moving last month, I couldn’t help but wonder if he’d be back at Heidenheim too! With Kleindienst and Kuhlwetter being supported by Schnatterer, Mohr, Kerschbaumer etc. Heidenheim are going to score enough goals to beat most teams, Erzgebirge Aue included, so I have to consider the home win as a good bet today.

Of late, Erzgebirge Aue have been their typical battling selves, taking points off teams that underestimate them whilst being flattened by superior teams. I’d like to see what they’d do with a bit of money behind them because this is essentially a very consistent team. Despite almost never having particularly good individuals, they’ve always managed to find ways to hurt teams. It’s a really impressive setup, all things considered. I find it far easier to oppose them than to back them because of their lack of quality but they are certainly worthy of respect; nobody has an easy ride against Erzgebirge Aue!

This season, instead of the typically seasoned bruisers that usually play across their front line, they’ve found a promising youngster with an eye for goal, namely Kruger. He’s quite tall too, mind you, but the ex-Schalke 04 man has some finesse about him, which the likes of Nazarov and Zulechner simply don’t. Support for Erzgebirge Aue attacks is somewhat limited to Zolinski, Strauss, and Hochscheidt, and the rest are the busy bees. Again, despite not being particularly good individually, this is a team that thrives collectively. With that in mind, I’m sure they’ll trouble Heidenheim today.

Still, when it comes to quality, the visitors can’t hold a candle to their hosts. They’ve lost their last four trips to Heidenheim in a row, and the quality gap is as steady as ever. With Heidenheim better than ever in front of goal, and their opponents plucky but short on quality,  I can’t help but see value in the home win at 4/5.

Verdict: Heidenheim to win at 4/5.

SV Sandhausen vs Karlsruher SC

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I had high hopes for Sandhausen this season but they’re four points from safety at the moment, and showing no signs of bursting into life. Their sole saving grace is that Osnabruck are finally showing their true colours because other than that, Sandhausen would be further adrift in due course, given the improvements of St. Pauli and Darmstadt 98 respectively. They need to start winning matches, and with a squad like theirs, there really isn’t an excuse for failing to do so.

I mean even today, without Danish midfielder Nartey, they’ve still got Keita-Ruel and Behrens up front, supported by Esswein, Halimi etc. They’ve just signed target man Schmidt too, not to mention young VfB Stuttgart attacker Zografakis, who is from Greece. Gargantuan midfielder Bachmann arrived from Kaiserslautern to give them a greater aerial threat, and they’ve even got a new goalkeeper in Kapino, which is handy as their number one Fraisl left, and his understudy Wulle is out today. I can’t deny that they’ve certainly taken good steps in their bid to avoid being sucked into this relegation battle but whether it works or not remains to be seen.

I really hope they stay up, for what it’s worth. They’ve been fun to watch over the years, and they sure to do work hard. Any team can be relegated from this division, though – it’s bloody ruthless! They need to be more effective going forward, Sandhausen, and hosting a leaky Karlsruher SC should be a good opportunity to do so. Let’s face it – they’re in deep shit if they don’t, and not just because they need the points. No, Russian centre-back Zhirov is amongst those out today so keeping a clean sheet here will require something of a miracle. It’s far from impossible for them to outscore Karlsruher SC though. All it generally takes is a team that is prepared to go toe-to-toe with them, and Sandhausen can do that. If they use their physical attributes in the final third properly, they can win today. It’ll be tough, though – imagine trying to mark Hofmann without Zhirov!

The visitors are unbeaten in seven games now, which is both fun and hilarious. Again – Karlsurher SC are grafters and goal-scorers, but they’re not winners, per se. They embrace being a typical Bundesliga 2 team with tremendous gusto in that respect, prioritising the football style over effectiveness. Nobody has an easy ride against them because of the fight and finesse that they bring, but at the same time, any team at this level can beat them with the right application. It’s one hell of a curious tightrope walk, but it sure as hell doesn’t make the visitors boring at any time.

Like their hosts, they find themselves without a defensive regular for this one, namely full-back Heise, who is on loan from Norwich City. Even rotation defenders like Jung and Carlson are still out so they’re far from strong at the back right now, although loaning Wimmer from Stoke City recently sure was one hell of a boost as he’s a bit too good for this level. Everything about Karlsruher SC is to do with attacking though, even in defence, so he’ll be fighting the Alamo, the Austrian! 

In attack, Karlsruher SC are deadly. Towering target man Hofmann is always unplayable, and with Kother/Batmaz/Gueye alongside him, there are plenty of opportunities for knock-ons. All of the Karlsruher SC midfielders have benefited from such this season, especially Gondorf, Goller, and Wanitzek, the latter of which is back today. The simplest way I can explain this team to you is to say that they’re forever committing players forward, and they’re never far away from scoring or conceding. I admire their mental strength and work-rate but their strength is collective rather than individual so teams can hurt them. Truth be told, on paper I’d say that Sandhausen are marginally better than their opponents today. You wouldn’t know it to look at the league table though!

As far as today’s game goes, I believe that backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 is something of a no-brainer here, whether it comes in or not – neither team is capable of controlling this match enough to suppress the other! 

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Ilves vs AC Oulu

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

I was pretty concerned by Ilves’ transfer activity ahead of their game against KuPS last weekend, and I was right to be – they lost at home against a KuPS side that didn’t even start with any of their foreigners. Ilves are not crap, and I trust in Wiss to always have a plan, but it will take time for this group to properly gel because of the scale of changes made.

However, I’m not concerned with those changes when it comes to Ilves hosting AC Oulu. The visitors lost key creator Hertsi to FC Lahti pre-season, which was a hammer-blow for a team that already massively over-relied upon Veikkausliiga level footballers in the Ykkonen last season. Most of their recruits pre-season have come from the Ykkonen too, although I know that both Malolo and Alanko are good enough to play at this level. The latter was only denied a better passage away from VPS a year or so ago because of injury problems, and Malolo’s only real issue is inconsistency, which is why he moves about as often as he does. Still, both are solid signings for the northerners.

The rest, though? It’s not a lot to look at. Veteran striker Makela is not there any longer. They’ve two really experienced defenders in Hurme and Rafinha, but both have seen better days. Sadat is a good creator at this level, if you can keep him fit and stop the game passing him by. Nurmela is a playmaker with lots of potential but has still never fulfilled it, and it’s generally considered that the Veikkausliiga is a bit beyond him. Jokelainen is a striker with a lot to prove at Veikkausliiga level but again, he’s never shown enough quality to prove he can consistently do it at this level. In short, they’ve taken a lot of risks this season, AC Oulu. Time will tell how that works out for them.

For me though, they’ve made a lot of changes in a short space of time, and haven’t come out of it with a wildly superior squad to what they had last season. There are a few unknowns about this team, and I am sure that facing them in Oulu will still be a nightmare for teams, but this is not an especially good outfit. They’re not going to be able to control games like they did in the Ykkonen, and they’re not going to enter games with a vastly superior attack to their opponents either. I fear for AC Oulu, to be frank, and that extends to today’s Suomen Cup affair in Tampere.

Ilves did make a lot of changes pre-season, it’s true. It’ll be really fascinating to see how this team performs without talismanic attacker Ala-Myllymaki, who has opted to try his hand in Italy’s Serie B with Venezia. They lost a lot of good players at once with Jair (HJK), Tendeng (IFK Mariehamn), Skytta (Toulouse), Tomas (KuPS), and Jarvinen (KuPS) moving on. Still, they’ve made good signings as replacements, and I am not concerned about them in the long-term. They’ve taken a couple of risks, but mostly their new arrivals are experienced at this level. For example, big VPS forward Sarr knows this level, defender Katz has one or two years under his belt at this level, and playmaker Tolonen has been around for so long that it feels like he should be in his thirties already! 

Essentially, what Ilves have done – it sits well with me. It’ll be a challenge, gelling these players, but not something that is beyond Wiss. He built the last Ilves team from scratch, and he can do it again. This is a seriously close-knit, hard-working group; I know they’ll all be on the same page at some stage. They’ve still got Mensah at the back, as well as Aspegren and MIettunen, so their defence isn’t in a bad place at all. Their goalkeepers are young, and they do look short of depth in midfield, but I like their starting eleven, even if this is a somewhat young squad. It’s imperative that they keep target man Mettala fit if they’re to achieve their goals this season, though, particularly as Missi Mezu joined Etar in Bulgaria just a few days ago. Keep in mind that Fofana may yet return to the club, too. His loan spell at Sabah ends in April, which is when the Veikkausliiga begins, and he’s barely played there.

Anyway – as far as today’s game goes, I see more than enough in the Ilves squad to trust them to beat AC Oulu at home. 9/10 is a very generous set of odds to take such on at.

Verdict: Ilves to win at 9/10.

FC Honka Espoo vs Haka Valkeakoski

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

The odds on the home win at the time of release (earlier this week) showed precisely why I love betting on competitions that the bookies know less about. At one stage, FC Honka Espoo were genuinely priced at around 137/100 to beat Haka Valkeakoski at home. That’s a team that they’re a good couple of levels above, for clarity! I can only assume that the bookies read far more into Haka’s win against IFK Mariehamn last weekend (largely borne out of IFK Mariehamn’s lack of cohesion) and into FC Honka Espoo’s home defeat last weekend (against one of Finland’s best teams, Inter Turku).

I won’t deny that Honka have challenges to overcome this season. Kandji has been let go, which was coming, given his injury problems. Striker Martin has gone back to Spain which again, was expected, given his age. Playmaker Hervas leaving was a kick in the sack, though – they’ll miss him. Honka have not done much business pre-season but I’ve liked what they have done. South African attacker Smith tore up the Ykkonen for Ekenas IF last season, and should be a good addition. Wonderkid teenager Pyyhtia joined from TPS, and the intention appears to be for him to replace Hervas. It’s a big ask for the youngster, but he’s very mature so we’ll see how that goes. Goalkeeper Huuhtanen joined to provide competition for American shot stopper Murray too.

In essence, the bedrock of the Honka team has remained. They’ve got a really experienced defence containing Hatakka, Heikkila etc. Their two deep-lying midfielders, Tammilehto and Voutilainen, are still at the club. Brazilian creator Kaufmann and tricky dribbler Savage are both still on Honka’s books, although the latter didn’t play last weekend, and I’ve no idea if he can play today either. The intention appears to be for young Colombian forward Alegria to play this season too, which is interesting. All things considered, Honka are a very settled team with a couple of new faces to integrate. That’s not enough for me to suddenly doubt one of Finland’s most consistent teams winning at home against an inferior team.

I appreciate that Haka still have Tainio as manager, which is very good news for the visitors. They’ve done very little pre-season that does anything for me though. They made some random signings, some of which (e.g. Hussein) has the potential to succeed, but I would not read much into where they’re at purely on the back of their win against IFK Mariehamn at weekend, who really did look like a fish out of water in that match. Keep in mind that shot stopper Tannander returned to HJK, playmaker Popovitch joined KuPS, and target man Markkanen left to begin an American adventure with Orange County SC. 

I think Leon will be a good addition in midfield, but time will tell if that’s true or not. That defence of theirs looks weaker than ever, and their attack seems over-reliant on pace rather than good movement and finesse. I think that teams that are a couple of weeks further down the line than IFK Mariehamn currently are will trouble Haka without much fuss, and Honka certainly fits the bill there. Haka will be confident here, I am sure, but they’re up against a seriously good team away from home. I just can’t see what makes the bookies give Haka a realistic chance today, really.

Finnish football can be very weird sometimes, I grant you, but I’d take Honka to win most games in Finland at odds of 11/10, and this Suomen Cup encounter is not an exception, especially as they need to win it if they intend on progressing to the next round.

Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win at 11/10.

VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha Berlin

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

I appreciate that there’s a bit of a feelgood factor around Dardai’s ‘return’ to Hertha Berlin, which in itself is comedy gold, seeing as he didn’t leave the club, then he did, and now he’s back again. I do think that he’s done the best job out of any manager of this club for a while now but at the same time, I’ve questioned each manager they’ve brought in in the meantime, so has Dardai really had any competition? Has any of his replacements really had enough time to ‘replace’ him? I’m not so sure.

I’ve not had a problem with the Hertha Berlin squad for a while now though. Indeed, I love their whole project, which is designed to make them into the biggest club in eastern Germany with an improved cash flow situation, thus enabling them to be competitive in the Bundesliga for years to come. Everything about the capital club is very positive in those aspects. It’s just finding the right manager that has continued to evade them though. Dardai’s return will do them some good in the short-term, but does he really have what it takes to take them to the next level? I doubt it. Mind you, that may not even be the idea; perhaps it’s simply a case of him taking the reins for a few years before they can afford somebody better to take them to a level above.

Despite that Dardai feelgood factor though, Hertha Berlin still lost at home against Bayern Munich last week. That might not sound all that incriminating but they’ve been the Bavarians’ bogey team for a while now, and it’s almost expected that they don’t lose that home game. It was under Dardai when they consistently upset Bayern, actually. Now they’ve got another tough game as they head west to face VfB Stuttgart, and they’ve got to make that trip without a number of regulars.

In defence, they’re without Plattenhardt, Torunarigha, and Boyata, all of which are problems. Mittelstadt can arguably replace Plattenhardt quite well on the left, but missing both Boyata and Torunarigha are problems that I just don’t see a natural ‘cure’ for. Furthermore, the continued absence of live wire Dilrosun plus the absence of tricky Cordoba in attack has limited Hertha Berlin’s options today. This squad has a deceptively good level of depth, to be fair, so Cordoba can be replaced by Cunha, and it may even be the case that Radonjic gets to feature after his move from Olympique de Marseille too. Overall though, this team still doesn’t do as much for me as it should. I recognise their potential, but their lack of confidence and consistency concerns me. In time, I genuinely think that this will be an excellent squad but for now, it makes sense to oppose them.

That’s especially true as today’s hosts get a lot of their big names back for this game. Argentinian striker Gonzalez is out but with towering Kalajdzic able to come in alongside Wamangituka, that’s no big issue. It’s doubtful that all of the returning players will feature for VfB Stuttgart, especially given the proclivity that the likes of Castro has for the medical room, but with him, Didavi, and Sosa all back, all of the problems that Stuttgart have had lately begin to melt away. Their form guide has taken a substantial hit lately because of absentees but I think we’ll see them bounce back now.

Let’s not forget how good the work done by boss Matarazzo was earlier in the season, with Stuttgart as capable defensively as offensively. They’re a very flexible, dynamic unit with lots of goal threats, excellent creators in midfield, and a tough defence. They don’t have enough depth to keep it up for too long, I’m afraid – that’s why absentees cripple them more than they do most at Bundesliga level. With no real absentees of note other than Gonzalez today though, it makes sense to believe that Stuttgart can bounce back from their massacre in Leverkusen by overcoming a mentally frail Hertha Berlin side.

For me, this game should be won by Stuttgart. I think they can outsmart their opponents, and be more clinical too. As long as they’re tight enough to not give too much space away, just like the way they played against RB Leipzig, then backing them to win at 13/10 makes sense to me.

Verdict: VfB Stuttgart to win at 23/20.

Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

I love Bremen. When it comes to German football right now, there’s nothing I want more than for them to avoid relegation. Last year was depressing, and they should have been relegated; Heidenheim were the better team over the two legged play-offs. It was clear they had to do something special this season in order to turn the tide which, honestly, simply hasn’t happened.

I’ll happily point to the departure of Klaassen as a problem that they’re yet to solve. However, Bremen losing players is nothing new; they should be used to it by now. The theory at this club is to always have a replacement waiting in the wings e.g. Gnabry left, so Rashica stepped up. It’s not the conveyer belt that is the problem to me; it’s the style. For me, Bremen seem stuck between relying on a big target man whilst also wanting to pass their way around teams. I don’t think those two approaches make for good bedfellows. All that tends to happen is that they find these lovely little pockets of space in between enemy lines, Bremen, and almost never put a ball into the box that Selke can actually get onto. They’d be better off ditching the target man altogether, and either using another midfielder to play that role, or to bring in a really fast forward that can break defensive lines whilst also dropping the team back a bit.

Or better yet, play the bloody wide game that they’re already extremely well-equipped to play! Gebre Selassie and Augustinsson are outstanding wing-backs! Rashica and Bittencourt can put great balls into the box! So why they don’t play a more orthodox wide game with a taller attacking midfielder to make late runs into the box, I’ve no idea. They insist on playing out from the back, and it makes them so easy to defend against. The right team will simply press their defenders into pumping long balls forward, and very few of them end up with Bremen players. The only games they’ve triumphed in this season have been when their opponents haven’t pressed in the right places at the right times because from open play, Bremen have been depressingly bad this season – and I’ve not seen SC Freiburg play charitably very often under Streich’s reign!

It may not come to pass because football is weird sometimes, and because I have no luck right now, but can you imagine the potential damage SC Freiburg could do to a team with little central midfield, a slow defence, and a predictable attacking game? They seldom lose at the Weserstadion anyway, let alone now, facing the weakest, most predictable Bremen side for years. I know Bremen have picked up some really good results lately, that they’re more confident because of it, and that Fullkrug is back now. This is a really good Freiburg side that they’re up against though, and one that should really be too smart and too savvy for them today.

Freiburg have generally played really well in 2021, and I am not just talking about their win against Bv09 Borussia Dortmund last time out. They were very good in their 2-1 defeat at Bayern Munich, and were excellent against both Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart too. I know they had a slow start to the season, but they’ve finally gotten back to their true level, and that bodes ominously for the rest of the Bundesliga because boy, do they look keen! I often feel like people underestimate this team because they never win anything. I think most German teams would say that facing Freiburg away from home is one of the hardest games in the division.

What you have here is a very settled team with a very consistent, meticulous manager. They’re as good at defending as they are at attacking because everybody fights, and nobody quits. I couldn’t state that they’re specialists at either end of the park, but it sure does make them annoying to face. Even without Hungarian midfielder Sallai available to them today, I still trust this team to cause Bremen problems. Jeong has been excellent for them this season, Schmid and Grifo have been terrifically consistent, the latter of which has been integral to Freiburg creating chances. They’ve all been set free by the arrival of Santamaria, who now sits in front of the back four and controls the game. With an experienced poacher like Petersen up front, and a beast like Lienhart from set pieces, Freiburg have multiple routes to goal.

Sure, if you hem them in then you’ll score against them. Individually, they’re really not very good defensively. As a unit though, they put a lot of effort in, and breaking a team down like that is really very hard. Everything clicks at Freiburg, basically. The team is very effective as a unit, and they know no fear. I can see them causing Bremen a lot of problems today, as sorry as I am to say it. This is a game that Bremen need to win, but that only further plays into Freiburg’s hands, who are excellent at exploiting space.

For me, the away win with draw no bet cover at 4/5 is a must today.

Verdict: SC Freiburg to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Paris Saint-Germain vs OGC Nice

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

Opposing PSG is always risky. We all know how good they can be, and how good Pochettino has the ability to make them. Truth be told though, I can’t remember the last time I watched PSG and was impressed by them. I suspect it was last season, which is a sad indictment of their mercenaries really.

I’m a bit fed up of the manager taking the chop for it, really. Are we really supposed to believe that Emery, Ancelotti, Blanc, Tuchel, and soon enough, Pochettino, are all shit managers? How long before the owners suddenly have an epiphany, and realise that toxic players like Neymar are the problem? The fact that they’re after giving him a new contract is scandalous; he’s done fuck all for them for a while now. The talent he has is staggering but the amount of it going unused nowadays is even more staggering. He doesn’t create, he seldom scores, and he doesn’t even look confident in front of goal when he has the energy to get into the box (minus the faux ‘hands raised in despair at another failed move’ and/or diving to win free-kicks/penalties). PSG don’t need Neymar in order to do well. What they do need, however, is eleven players of the same mindset – and that’s not going to happen whilst players like him are there.

I’ve singled Neymar out there but it’s more than just him. For all of his talent, I find that Verratti does way too much talking and not enough progressing, that di Maria only bothers to show up when Neymar isn’t playing, and that Mbappe has somewhat lost his way over the past twelve months too, presumably sick to death of being the only PSG forward that makes runs in behind and that closes opponents down. Kean has done that job really well since coming in, to be fair, but there’s so much wrong at this club that I just can’t trust them anymore.

I mean, PSG should dominate Ligue 1 every single season with this squad. For a number of years, they have done so – until now. Other teams are now cottoning onto the notion that PSG are nowhere near as effective as they used to be. They’re slow, ponderous, and very sideways. They don’t have enough of a counterattacking threat to sit back properly, and their midfield doesn’t work hard enough to help the defenders out when being countered. There are so many weak areas to this squad, which you simply wouldn’t believe, considering who they’ve got in their squad on paper. Sometimes they’ll produce a marvellous display, and knowing my luck of late, it’ll probably be today! It’s so rare though, that I can’t help opposing a team that can’t outplay Angers SCO or Lorient. They’re lazy, pure and simple.

Now, up until last weekend, I had opposed OGC Nice more than most in Ligue 1. However, something strange happened as they produced probably the best display I’ve seen from them since the Favre days in order to comfortably despatch a good Angers SCO side. They followed that up with a confident mid-week Coupe de France win in Nimes too, and they look so much more confident for it, which is to be expected with a young team. 

So – what prompted it? Well, strangely enough, it was the solving of their defensive mire that did it. Dante is still out, and Bambu still doesn’t seem right. However, pairing youngsters Saliba and Todibo really, really worked. For one brief moment in time, the entire French nation saw the future of the national team as those two comfortably dealt with a painfully dangerous Angers SCO attack. They dovetailed marvellously, and that bedrock allowed OGC Nice to get forward and rely on their attackers to do the business. This is still OGC Nice, so there’s no telling how long it’ll be before the ol’ circus rolls back into town, but for now, I am taking this team seriously!

Yes, they’re still without important players, none moreso than Swiss full-back Lotomba, striker Dolberg, and playmaker Reine-Adelaide. However, things are beginning to click for this team, and I’m sorry that I can’t put it any better than that. Lopes finally got on the scoresheet recently, and he’s such a talented creator that having him with confidence is like signing a new player. Seeing Maolida do what he did has reminded everybody of his glistening potential, not that it’s been seen for many years. Gouiri is still inconsistent but brilliant on his day. It’s like this ‘new’ OGC Nice is forcing its way out of the existing OGC Nice, almost like the way a snake sheds its skin. It’s weird, but also pleasing to see; a team like this should never be the embarrassment that they were under Vieira.

Despite their absentees, OGC Nice look confident, organised, and dangerous on the break. This type of game suits them because they’ll have space at the other end, and they’ve finally got a defensive pairing that works. I appreciate that the Saliba video has been floating around social media lately, and that could potentially derail the youngster, but I doubt it; he seems very focused to me. Subsequently, I expect another impressive OGC Nice display, and with their confidence leading to more energetic displays, I can envision them outrunning and outfighting their more illustrious hosts here, who are without a number of first-team players. If that happens, they should not lose this game by more than a solitary goal, if at all.

Again – opposing PSG is risky, but at this moment in time, it simply makes sense to me. 

Verdict: OGC Nice to win with a +2 Asian Handicap at 93/100.

Chiasso vs FC Schaffhausen 

KO: 17:15 (UK time)

I’ll never understand odds like these because it’s as if the bookies believe that Chiasso are somehow on the same page as FC Schaffhausen, which they’re really, really not. Chiasso are hard-working part-timers; FC Schaffhausen are led by a Super League level manager and have splashed enough cash this season to make promotion a very realistic possibility. These two teams are poles apart, and although football can be a very strange mistress at times, there’s no logic in believing that FC Schaffhausen are somehow not a lot better than Chiasso – because they are.

Are the bookies reading too much into the potential absence of star Uruguayan striker Pollero today, perhaps? He’s been very good but he’s not carrying this team, you know? I know boss Yakin is very outspoken but he’s also very smart, and if he feels confident enough in his team to cut Roberto Rodriguez loose mid-season then it’s because he’s got a really good squad – and he has! Prtajin and Pollero have been lethal up front together this season, yes, but both can perform well without the other because of the depth in the FC Schaffhausen midfield.

Francisco Rodriguez is a Super League level playmaker who looks to be thriving after predominantly overcoming his battle with depression. Mozzone has done well up front when called upon. New signing Muller has settled in well, and their Kosovans work tirelessly whilst also keeping the tempo fast. Yes, they have some question marks over certain regulars today but they’ve got depth, they’ve got match-winners, and a brilliant manager. Why should they be doubted against the worst team in the Challenge League? That’s the real question to be asked here. They’ve already beaten Aarau and Winterthur in 2021, who are both a lot better than Chiasso. I see no reason to doubt the visitors today.

It helps that Chiasso have been poor in 2021 too. I became somewhat fond of them toward the end of 2020 because their hard work was fused with confidence, and that led to them scoring some of the numerous chances they create per game, which led to high-scoring, entertaining matches and plenty of upsets. In 2021 though, it’s been more business as usual for Chiasso i.e. plenty of running, and zero effectiveness. I’m not even prepared to take their draw with excellent Grasshopper Zurich all that seriously because they always work harder than them, and always deserve to get something from such games because Grasshopper Zurich are inherently lazy nowadays.

Chiasso never stop fighting, but their lack of goal threat in 2021 is a real problem. Like I said above, they seldom struggle to create chances but that ball is not hitting the back of the net. I know Bnou Marzouk has gone off the boil, as has Almeida really, but towering forward Sifneos has done alright this season, and they’ve just loaned Manicone from Lugano, who is too good for this level – apparently. Still the goals won’t come though, and that’s despite French midfield star Bahloul having bizarrely stuck around when he’s amply proven that playing at a higher level is inevitable for him.

Again, nobody at Challenge League level puts more into matches than Chiasso but they lack tactical intelligence, and they lack composure in front of goal. The winter break really came at the wrong time for them; they look a shadow of the team they were in November. The problem now is that Chiasso are not the kind of team to keep opponents out. They must score goals – and they’re not. I can’t see things improving against a far superior FC Schaffhausen today either. SC Kriens or FC Wil, possibly – and Chiasso desperately need that to be the case (they’ve ran out of their nine lives now!) in their battle against the drop – but not FC Schaffhausen.

For me, the away win at 9/10 is a must here, all things considered. A Yakin team will not struggle to match the industry of Chiasso, unlike title rivals Grasshopper Zurich, and if you can do that, then Chiasso are sitting ducks.

Verdict: FC Schaffhausen to win at 9/10.

Union Berlin vs Schalke 04

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

I keep saying it, but it’s perfectly true; Schalke 04 must win this match. I don’t agree with Gross being appointed as manager, and I concur that some of their transfers have been very strange, but I recognise that this team has improved a lot in 2021. That said, you don’t get points for improved displays; you only get points for wins, and no matter how much they’ve troubled Bayern Munich or Koln – and they did! – they still keep on losing. The defensive errors are going to keep coming with Kabak now replaced by Mustafi, which speaks for itself; Schalke 04 obviously never want to keep a clean sheet ever again. The only good aspect of their defensive situation tonight is that Sane is injured, which makes them slightly less calamitous than usual, although there’s still Oczipka, I suppose.

Their attacking has improved immensely in 2021; this team has created good opportunities in each game they’ve played in. More than that, they’ve been lively, wholly energetic, and ran the channels more. The support their front line has had from overlapping full-backs like Kolasinac and William has been a welcome booster for a team without any natural width, and Raman/Uth have both thrived because of it. The one that impressed the most is American striker Hoppe, though – a brilliant finisher. If he gets a chance, he scores – and that’s a very welcome boost to a Schalke 04 team that hasn’t had a good finisher in years, although they ironically used this information to go and re-sign Huntelaar for reasons unbeknown to me.

Schopf and Harit have looked more up for it in this calendar year, and Serdar – well, I honestly don’t know why he’s still at the club. He’s got more class and composure than anyone else at this club, yet he stays at a Bundesliga 2-bound group of has-beens. Sad to see, but I admire his loyalty. Gross may be a joke of an appointment as manager, but he has at least encouraged their fight and effectiveness, which has made Schalke 04 that bit better than their form guide suggests. I’ve seen enough from them lately to believe that they’ll take the game to Union Berlin today, and if they’re lucky, they might just get something from the encounter.

I mean, Union Berlin are not infallible, not that you’d know it from their tip-top performances against Bayern and Dortmund a few weeks ago. However, they’re just beginning a bit of a descent at the moment, the capital club. They’ve asked a lot of their players this season, and they’ve got it back in spades – but fatigue hits every team, really, and Union Berlin do not have much depth. Indeed, they’ve been very lucky this season because they lost star attacker Kruse early on, target man Pohjanpalo for ages, and Ujah hasn’t played at all. How many average Bundesliga teams could cope with such absentees? Not many. Union Berlin thrived though, bringing in Awoniyi on loan, who has been outstanding. Forget his goals, a lot of which have been very scruffy; it’s his ability to lead the line that I’ve enjoyed because he’s powerful, he’s fast, and no defender wants to go one-on-one against him. That’s the measure of Union Berlin, though – they have a problem, and they somehow find a solution that isn’t music-orientated.

That said, Union Berlin are going to find winning today a lot harder than the odds would have you believe. They’ve not won in four games now, losing three of them along the way. They’ve not lost any of their work ethic during those games; as I said above, it’s just a touch of fatigue that has led to some slight hiccups here and there, and that’s been the deciding factor between Union Berlin picking up valuable points, or leaving empty-handed. They’re not that good, you see. They perform heroically as a unit, but individually they do struggle so it’s at this time of year when I start to be a bit wary of them.

With Pohjanpalo back to lead their line now though, and both Becker (out tonight) and Teuchert having really matured into dangerous wide threats as the season has gone on, I like Union Berlin’s chances of at least scoring in this game. They’re phenomenally tenacious, this group, and have the attitudes that Schalke 04 have been craving for years. They’ve got options with the big Finn back, who can be rotated with Awoniyi. Andrich has performed very well this season, supporting attacks excellently, and Ingvartsen is a handy aerial presence too. 

However, Union Berlin do have problems at the back today because of absentees. Regular goalkeeper Luthe is out, so Karius will come in, and you don’t need me to tell you what kind of errors he’s capable of making. Regular defender Lenz and rotation defender Schlotterbeck are both out too. The beast that is Friedrich is still available, at least, so I would not panic. However, keeping tabs on this rather fast and suddenly capable Schalke 04 attack might prove a bit too much for them. Time will tell.

I would not enter the 1×2 market here. Like I said above, it’s not a good time of year to be backing Union Berlin to win as they’re tiring, and their opponents have improved considerably in 2021, not to mention the fact that the visitors are utterly desperate for wins now. However, backing both teams to score at 4/5 makes a lot of sense to me right now. 

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven

KO: 17:45 (UK time)

I’ve been monitoring the ADO Den Haag situation for a while now because I wanted to see what they’d do. Truth be told, they should have been relegated years ago, if only for their horrendous decision-making. They’ve lost so much quality over the years that what was left this season was an embarrassment. 

Over the past couple of months though, they got desperate, ADO Den Haag, and it led to some really interesting signings. For example, injury-ravaged defender Janmaat joined, which had the potential to be a great move but of course he’s injured again, joining fellow defender Bijen on the sidelines today, as well as creative midfielder Bourard. It was a real scattergun approach from ADO Den Haag though, roping in ex-Liverpool Nigerian wildcard forward  Adekanye from Cadiz, experienced midfielder Vejinovic (once of Vitesse Arnhem fame), big Croatian midfielder Gomelt from Crotone, and Austrian goalkeeper Fraisl from SV Sandhausen. I’m honestly not sure there was any long-term plan involved here; they simply wanted to improve a squad that was dreadful in every area, and in a roundabout kind of way, they did.

Of course, it was their two most recent additions that piqued my interest. First there was Mokhtar, a Moroccan creator who was terrific for PEC Zwolle when last in the Eredivisie. It never worked out for him abroad, but back in Dutch football is where he thrives, and he should provide some much-needed creativity in this squad. Even more recently, however, they’ve managed to bring former club star El Khayati back from his Middle East adventure. He literally carried ADO Den Haag when he last played here, so it’s without question that he can save them from relegation. This time around, he’s actually got some good players to play with, so I am insanely curious to see where this peculiar pattern takes ADO Den Haag.

Needless to say that integration periods are required but with Goossens, Bourard (when available), El Khayati, Vejinovic, and Mokhtar now loading the bullets for big Kramer in the middle, ADO Den Haag have a route to goal that works. That might just be enough to keep them up, you know. Their defence is still terrible, and I wouldn’t necessarily trust them to win games, but I do expect improved displays in the near future. Why not today against PSV Eindhoven, a game they can play without any pressure as nothing is expected of them?

I mean, it’s easy to get lost in the PSV Eindhoven squad because of how big it is nowadays. They’ve had injury problems all season long, not that you’d know it from the consistency of their wins. It’s gotten to the stage where they can be trusted to win games at Eredivisie level because of the match-winners they now have. Malen, Zahavi, Ihatteren, Romero (when fit – he’s missed most of this campaign!), Madueke, Gakpo, Mauro, and of course, Gotze – it’s too much for teams to prepare for at this level. Subsequently, PSV Eindhoven always have a route to goal so whether they play well or not, they still stand a good chance of winning.

However, I’ve watched PSV Eindhoven a lot lately, and they’ve been really disappointing. Even when they’ve won, they’ve really had to ride their luck, and by that I mean consistently failing to control games, and consistently failing to stop teams from creating good chances against them. I mean, I still don’t know how they beat RKC Waalwijk at home, honestly. You wouldn’t have known that PSV Eindhoven were the home team in that game, let me tell you! I can’t fault a team that’s winning games, and I sure as shit wouldn’t bet against them here. It’s just that they’re giving each opponent opportunities to beat them, and with ADO Den Haag’s new recruits in mind, I have to believe that today’s hosts will at least score in this game.

PSV Eindhoven are obviously the better team, and they really should win. However, they had a tough KNVB Beker tie in Amsterdam mid-week, which they lost, and now they’ve got to find the energy to outrun a desperate ADO Den Haag today. The visitors have a really impressive record against ADO Den Haag, at least when it comes to scoring goals, but they seldom manage to win such games without conceding because they’re typically very open, just as this one should be. Again, I would not bet against the visitors doing enough to pick up the three points but I also wouldn’t back them to do it. This has now become an ADO Den Haag team that should be approached with caution, and their tired opponents are not looking all that great. It’ll be interesting to see what transpires here.

For me, backing both teams to score at 4/5 makes a lot of sense here, as it typically does in most Eredivisie games really. I can’t remember the last Dutch team I saw defend well!

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

Aston Villa have had a week to prepare for this challenging fixture; Brighton & Hove Albion, however, were dragged through the wringer mid-week by Leicester City, losing the FA Cup tie 1-0 after The Seagulls went to sleep at the death, nobody picking up Iheanacho from a cross into the box. They’ve got some depth, Brighton & Hove Albion, but not enough for three challenging fixtures in a week, in my opinion, which firmly places the advantage in Aston Villa’s court.

I think it’s been well-documented that Aston Villa have been playing really well under boss Smith. It’s remarkable how much of a difference a manager can make, really. He didn’t arrive at Aston Villa with Premier League manager pedigree but because he understands the club and its ways, he’s proven to be a very astute appointment, and I doubt many could get more out of the Villa players than he has because of it. 

I mean, a lot of people rave about Grealish, for example. Part of that is borne out of England simply not producing natural playmakers nowadays, but part of it is borne out of the way in which Smith uses him, which people tend to forget. I’m not surprised that he’s not moved clubs yet, despite apparently having numerous opportunities to do so, because nobody is really sure if he’ll simply become the next Shelvey i.e. someone capable of the sublime sometimes, but generally won’t change a game enough unless playing for a desired manager.

Make no mistake, it’s Smith that glues the Villa squad together. His signings have been terrific too, haven’t they? I’ll never fully understand why Arsenal wanted to part ways with Martinez and fielded Leno ahead of him but their loss has been Villa’s gain; the Argentinian has been superb. Mings has looked really solid for them at the back, Douglas Luiz has really come of age in the middle of the park, and some of McGinn’s passing and crossing this season has been out of this world. Even typically inconsistent, diving El Ghazi has had his moments! 

What I like most about this squad that Smith has assembled is that they don’t over-rely on individuals; everybody plays their part. One week it’s Watkins, another week it’s Traore, another week it’s Grealish, and so on. Containing this flexible, fluid, and tenacious Villa side is a real pain in the arse. They’ve already annihilated Liverpool once this season, should have at least got a draw from their game against Manchester City but were robbed by shocking officiating, and they played bloody well against Manchester United too, definitely deserving more than they got. Nothing seems to faze this team, and adding a top-draw midfielder like Sanson to their squad in the meantime is a complete stroke of genius. I just can’t help wondering where they’d be in the table if they’d not had a steady stream of long-term absentees this season because for me, they’ve been the revelation of this campaign.

A tired Brighton & Hove Albion should seriously struggle against the above. I say that with full respect to the coastal club too. I know they’ve had some shitty moments this season but overall I think Potter has done a sterling job. They seldom look outsmarted by any team, and only lack that touch of quality in front of goal at the required teams to be a more effective outfit. I think Potter’s signings have been really clever too, for what it’s worth. They’ve just been unlucky with absentees, especially in recent times, with emerging wonderkid right-back Lamptey absent, and class act Welbeck injured, to name a couple. Consistent full-back/wing-back March’s absence is a real pain for them too; he’s remarkably good at what he does in every area of the pitch except when he arrives late in the box because his finishing is atrocious. 

Brighton & Hove Albion should welcome Dutch midfielder Propper back today at least, although defender Webster is a doubt. They’ve got some terrific engines in the middle of the park, Brighton & Hove Albion, and are very well-organised in defensive situations. I’m a big fan of what they’ve done with their general attacking play too, as it goes. No, they’re still not converting enough opportunities but it’s not through a lack of them being created, I assure you! Even with Lallana adapting his game to become something more of a ‘hard man’, the penetration offered by Trossard, Welbeck (when fit), Gross, rapid forward Maupay, and battling Connolly ensures that they’re usually in games whether they play well or not.

Again, I think Potter has done really well with this team, and they’re no more than a good finisher away from proving it in their form guide. Without it though, there’ll always be doubts about what they can achieve, and I doubt them now too. I think there’ll be tired legs in this squad, a lack of support in wide areas with March and Lamptey out, and a lack of finesse. That should be particularly problematic against a very good Aston Villa side that never seem far away from scoring goals so despite this game being every inch the complex encounter that the bookies have made it out to be, I still think there’s value to be found in backing the visitors with draw no bet cover at 83/100.

Verdict: Aston Villa to win with draw no bet at 83/100.