TFT Issue 3347!

Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners

KO: 05:05 (UK time)

The odds on the home win here are dropping, and although I get why people are doing it, I can’t get on board with right now. Under ordinary circumstances, I’d be all over Phoenix to beat the Mariners at evens, honestly. The Kiwis are a really good, well-organised team, and the Mariners have a history of imploding on a regular basis, at least over the past few years. The foundation is there, basically. However, this season is different. The brutal reality is that Phoenix haven’t had any luck yet this season, and the Mariners have not only had a lot of it, but have played some really good stuff too. At this moment in time, I’d be more inclined to back the visitors to not lose the game than I would to back the ‘home’ win.

I mean, you have to keep in mind that rapid wide attacker Sotirio and marquee striker Hemed are both out for Phoenix today, which does create something of a concern, even though Hemed is yet to fully impress and Sotirio’s finishing is wayward at best. That might be a more logical opinion for not wanting to take on the home win. I’m not concerned about that because everything Phoenix does is a team effort, and if anybody carries this team, it’s their midfield, not their attack. Davila is the heartbeat of everything that they do; his passing plus Ball’s speed will always be an avenue to goal for the Kiwis. As far as I am concerned, Muratovic or Waine could play instead of Hemed and Sotirio; it doesn’t change anything for me.

The Phoenix midfield this season has been excellent too. I’ve never seen Devlin play this well, for example, and the likes of Lewis, Rufer, and Ridenton are really consistent battlers with lots of stamina and commitment. In general, stopping Phoenix involves outlasting them, and most teams in the A-League can’t do that. Their wing-backs are hugely important to this team, though – take that away from this preview, if nothing else. I would be far more concerned if McGarry or Fenton being out because they have to get everywhere in this Talay setup. With Laws and DeVere in the middle of defence, Phoenix have a solid enough core, and there are no passengers in this squad. On their day, they’re a very hard side to deal with.

Like I said above though, they’ve not had much luck this season. Red cards that never were, freak goals scored against them, their own finishing being mere centimetres away from a goal etc. It’ll change in due course, but until then I am not prepared to back Phoenix to win, even though the majority of their displays do deserve better than what they’ve been getting. They may well beat the Mariners today; I consider them to be the better team, no matter what the form guide shows. I just don’t think it makes sense to back them to do it at this time though.

The Mariners are riding the crest of a wave at the moment, which really isn’t slowing down. Mentally, they’re the strongest they’ve been in a long time, and that’s what is getting them through games. Their defence has levelled out in the sense that it’s now getting exposed a lot more than it was at the start of the season, which is because they lack good centre-backs. Tongyik has performed above and beyond this season but is generally an inconsistent and injury-prone player so it’s not going to last. The signs are already there for that being the case.

However, the Mariners are killing teams with their intensity and surprisingly effective goal threat, which is coming with or without their foreign imports, surprisingly enough. It’s homegrown lads that have impressed me the most with the Mariners this season. I’ve mentioned before that full-back Clisby and midfielder Bozanic have been particularly impressive this season, and they’re two  of the more experienced players in this squad so it should be that way. Rapid Nisbet, playmaker de Silva, and forward Kuol have stole the show for the most part though. Nisbet has been excellent out wide, de Silva has played with remarkable consistency and excellent vision, and Kuol has bagged five goals already, displaying an extraordinary acumen for headed goals when you consider that he’s not particularly tall.

Everything works, though – and I like that. Boss Stajcic has to take the credit for restoring the pride and heart to this dormant club. With an infectious target man like Matt Simon pressing from the first minute to the last, and everybody else following suit, the Mariners now look as capable of upsetting the apple cart as both Phoenix and Roar did rather consistently last season. This may be a pretty young team but they’re playing with remarkable maturity and composure. Being brutally honest, I’m not convinced that they can keep this up but they’re not showing any signs of slowing down right now though, so why doubt them?

Whether they get anything from games or not right now, the Mariners have been finding the net regularly. Against a Phoenix side bereft of luck, I believe that trend will continue here. I also think it’s worth noting that this is more of a home game for the Mariners than for Phoenix as the Kiwis have relocated to Australia (Wollongong, to be precise) for the A-League campaign, and Wollongong is not far from Gosford, where the Mariners are from. If you twisted my arm, I would rather back the Mariners to get something from this game than Phoenix – for now. I still think the 1×2 market is dicey though. Backing over 3 goals at 5/4 appeals to me though, given how much these two teams do try to get forward swiftly and score goals.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 5/4.

Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets 

KO: 07:10 (UK time)

It was disappointing to see Roar end their excellent run against Macarthur FC but it’s fair enough, really. Roar were never going to be good enough to keep recording positive results, and Macarthur FC did a very good job on them, containing well, and executing counters very well indeed. Macarthur FC have become the form team in the A-League lately, actually – they were really good against Adelaide United too. 

I have no concerns about trusting Roar to bounce back today though, in this fixture that isn’t a derby but that I always class as one because it usually produces some feisty action. I still class Roar as being a cut above the Jets at this moment in time, although it certainly hasn’t gone unnoticed that the Jets keep improving, week on week. They had to ride their luck in order to beat City, to claim a late equaliser against Western Sydney, and even to beat Phoenix – but they’ve still done it. Indeed, one could make the argument that they’ve recorded better results in the games that they’ve played the least well in this season, and I’m not 100% how to feel about that!

Still, things are going in the Jets’ favour, and that must be respected. I still see weaknesses that need addressing in their squad though, and a couple of South-East Asia imports isn’t really going to cut the mustard for me, I’m afraid. I need to see a good goal-scorer, another wide threat, and a natural creator in this squad before I take them as seriously as they’d like to be taken – and probably a left-back too. Millar will provide the width when he’s free from quarantine, which hasn’t happened yet. The rest are open to interpretation though. The most that the Jets have really done lately is tie down promising youngster Thurgate to a longer contract, which although is good news, is not really what their focus should be right now. Abbas can be the playmaker sometimes but generally isn’t fit enough to do it. O’Donovan is a good target man but you won’t see the best of him until Millar can play. Stamatelopoulos could be the man they’ve been looking for but it’s a big ask, and he can’t play for them for a while yet.

Therefore, as impressive as Yuel has become, I just don’t trust the Jets to hurt good teams on a regular basis – and the Roar do defend well. I also think you have to appreciate that the Jets playing without defensive midfielder Kantarovski does lessen their capacity to stop teams. The spine of the team is solid enough; I think Duncan, Topor-Stanley, Boogaard, and Ugarkovic have been very good this season, and I’d probably chuck Yuel in there too. The Jets have rode their luck though, and generally needed teams to come at them in order to be effective. Roar will attack them today but not in the same, and I don’t see enough intelligence in the Jets’ squad to believe that they can cope with this style of play that Roar have adopted over the past couple of years, as was evident in the reversal of this fixture earlier in the season.

See, Roar do attack teams but they do it in a very calculated way. They play with energetic pressers across their front line to force opponents into errors, and then use the speed they’ve got to make the most of those situations. They’re also a very good threat from set pieces, and their speed ensures that counters are very prominent too. Their biggest weakness lies in breaking teams that sit back against them because they don’t have the best finishers, Roar. Forget what the statistics tell you; Wenzel-Halls may have been excellent this season, but he’s not a good finisher! McDonald is a good finisher but in a team that is not naturally gifted in the final third, good chances are not easy to come by for this team.

Don’t get me wrong; Roar create a lot of chances overall but they’re not gilt-edged ones, you know? They tend to need a team to come at them in order for Roar’s best to be triggered because they’ll get more opportunities that way. Macarthur FC did a really good job of sitting back against them, but I really don’t see the Jets being solid enough to stop Roar today. There’s always this lingering attacking intent in the Jets’ squad, and Roar will exploit that. Boogaard and Topor-Stanley, no matter how experienced they are, will have nightmares after coming up against the terrier that is Wenzel-Halls because he won’t give you a second to dwell. 

With O’Shea putting balls into the box, good movement a-plenty, and plenty of tenacity, Roar should have enough about them to beat the Jets today. I’m looking forward to seeing them field new forward Mebrahtu in due course too, as he fits like a glove into this squad with his speed and pressing capabilities – and I’d like to think that he’s retained the improved finishing we saw from him in Czechia, which certainly wasn’t present when he first left Australia! They’re a real bundle of energy from front to back though, Roar, and it makes them awfully uncomfortable to play against. Individually, they’re not much to look at but collectively, they’re very impressive – and I haven’t seen anywhere near enough from the Jets to convince me that they can get the best of their hosts here.

For me, Roar should return to winning ways at evens.

Verdict: Brisbane Roar to win at evens.

Konyaspor vs Denizlispor 

KO: 10:30 (UK time)

Ordinarily, this game would be a colossal under 2.5 goals affair, even by the standard of the Super Lig’s traditionally attack-minded games. However, this has become a game that two teams are desperate to win, and with two new managers in charge, both of which prefer attacking football, I’m inclined to believe that we’ll see goals in Turkey this morning.

Konyaspor have, at times, been the best in the Super Lig this season – at defending. They haven’t been lately, hence the managerial change that saw Palut introduced to lead them lately. Is that the right thing to do? It doesn’t matter; the Turks don’t tend to do the right thing in football terms as they’re too busy doing what they feel like doing. The end of a Super Lig campaign generally ends in mass hysteria with players panicking on the pitch, making strange decisions, and both fans and non-playing personnel panicking off it. In essence, nobody is safe during those times, so if avoiding relegation can happen before that time, it’s preferable.

Palut was brought in from Goztepe, where he did a good job for two years. He turned an average team into a slick, attack-minded outfit that never struggled in their quest to hurt teams. They weren’t perfect but they were good. It’s a bit of a transformation for Konyaspor though, having a manager like that at the helm. Like most managerial appointments in the Super Lig, I’m sure it’ll end in tears at some stage. For now though, we should really see an attack-minded Konyaspor, which fills me with both curiosity and fear.

I don’t think anyone can question the fact that Konyaspor do have goal-getters on their books. Cikalleshi may not be prolific on the ground, but he sure is in the air, and Kravets is a far more orthodox poacher. Those two being supported by Shengelia, Hadziamehtovic, Jevtovic, as well as newbie Bytyqi should produce goals. Also, they may not be newcomers, but let’s not overlook how long both Miya and Eduok have been out for this season. It may be a bit much to expect a lot of them early on in 2021, but both are very capable attacking options because they’re natural dribblers. To put it bluntly, I think this is an optimal time for an attack-minded manager to begin the conversion of Konyaspor from a somewhat defensive team into an attack-minded team.

The above will naturally lead to Konyaspor scoring more goals, but it’ll also lead to them conceding more; that’s the nature of the beast. As a unit, the Konyaspor defence is good but individually they’re quite vulnerable, and we’re going to see a lot more of that in the near future. I’m expecting a good display from the home team today though. They won’t have many easier Super Lig fixtures than this to come this season, and they’re more than capable of doing what’s necessary. It’ll be fun to see Konyaspor truly go at a team, which is what I expect to happen today.

However, Denizlispor will have other ideas, of course. Their performances have improved since their own new boss, Kutlu, took over. Their results haven’t, but there’s a lot more life and energy in Denizlispor’s displays now, which is encouraging. I still maintain that they’re the greatest Super Lig mystery of all this season because they made some terrific buys pre-season. They looked to all the world like they were in for a very safe campaign but instead find themselves battling relegation. Rodallega has done his bit, to be fair, but Sagal, Mesanovic, and Sacko have all let themselves down this season. Perhaps a new manager will cause more to be brought out of them.

Lately, Denizlispor have introduced Diskerud and Yasin to their midfield, both of which should speed up their passing. Again, it’s all about making Denizlispor harder to handle in the final third because their defence doesn’t bother any Super Lig team, really. That attack has the potential to be really good though, if properly utilised. Perhaps Kutlu can be the one to do that. Like I said earlier, the early signs are encouraging, even if the results are not. It’ll still be one hell of a tightrope walk for them to stay up but they’ve given themselves a fighting chance here.

The thing is that this is now a must-win game for Denizlispor though. No fans, a team with a new manager, no quality gap to speak of – why shouldn’t the visitors go for all three points today? Games are going to get harder, not easier, but they’d be so much better off if they won today and against struggling Genclerbirligi next time out. I believe that Denizlispor are going to have a real push for the three points today, and so they should too. If they do, then we should be in for a high-scoring game as neither team is going to be able to contain the other, and nor are they likely to attempt to.

Therefore, I’m left feeling like backing over 2.5 goals in this game is the right thing to do. The game itself represents a great opportunity for two desperate teams to push for three points, and with both capable of winning it, I expect a good and open game. 

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.

Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Osnabruck 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

I felt a bit sorry for Darmstadt 98 last weekend. How they lost 2-1 at home against Nurnberg, I will never know. They didn’t batter Nurnberg, to be fair, but they were the better team for my money. They conceded a goal randomly – which can happen – and then had Nurnberg hemmed in for the rest of the game. They weren’t threatening quite enough – the final ball never seemed to be quite right – but after Nurnberg were reduced to ten men, Darmstadt 98 levelled from the penalty spot. At that point, I wouldn’t have bet against them going on to win but a moment of madness cost Darmstadt 98 the draw, never mind the win, with a long punt downfield from Nurnberg goalkeeper Mathenia eventually finding its way into the net. Darmstadt 98 defender Rapp did his job as he was supposed to, heading the ball back to Schuhen – except that Schuhen had come out of his goal and not told anybody, which meant that Rapp’s header bounced into an empty net. It was harsh on Darmstadt 98, to put it bluntly.

Am I expecting an improvement today? Why, yes, I am! Darmstadt 98 are a very spirited bunch; keeping them down is very tough. Besides, Bundesliga 2 is a gruelling division with no sympathy whatsoever; they simply cannot afford to let opportunities like this pass them by, not when they need wins as much as they do. I mean, Karlsruher SC did them a favour yesterday, turning a 2-0 defeat into a 3-2 win against SV Sandhausen, so beating Osnabruck today would really give Darmstadt 98 some breathing space. The bottom three are not performing to their maximum, for the most part, but will do as the season unfolds and desperation kicks in. At that point, you need a buffer to stay safe, and Darmstadt 98 don’t currently have one.

They won’t get many easier games than this, Darmstadt 98. I’m not suggesting it’ll be a walk in the park, but it’s a game that they both could and should win. Osnabruck have massively over-achieved all season long, and although I respect the manner in which they did it, reality has come back to bite them in the backside. It’s a really good time to face them, and with all of their best players now available (Dursun, Palsson, Seydel, Kempe, and even new signing Campo) I’m struggling to doubt the superior hosts here. There’s a distinct quality gap here, and Darmstadt 98 have no excuses for failing to prove it.

This is football, and no bad run lasts forever. However, Osnabruck appear to be doing their level best to prolong this painful run of theirs. They have serious issues with absentees today. Amenyido, Auge, Beckemeyer, Buchholz, Engel, Grot, Wolze, and Klaas are absent, whilst Reichel is a doubt. What does that mean? It means that 50% of their best forward line (Amenyido + Santos) is missing, and it also means that their defence is in turmoil, especially on the left-hand side if Reichel fails his late fitness test. The prospect of Osnabruck simply keeping a clean sheet today, let alone getting a positive result, already seems too much to ask.

All I can think is that Kerk or Reis might bail the visitors out here. Other than that, they’re extremely likely to lose. They’ve looked short on confidence lately, very short on effectiveness, and now are short of numbers too. Confidence played a huge part in their relative success earlier this season but now that’s gone, they’re being seen for what they truly are. I won’t deny that Osnabruck have had some hard games lately – but they’ve also had some games that they should never lose. Just one win in 2021, and now they’re facing a relegation six-pointer with superior Darmstadt 98 whilst missing a lot of regulars. Ouch!

Football can be weird sometimes; we all know that. Darmstadt 98’s own goal last weekend proved that! There’s no logical reason to doubt the home team here though. I can see it being a tense affair, and I am hoping to see more penetration from the home team, but at 9/10 I can’t possibly overlook the home win with the above information in mind.

Verdict: Darmstadt 98 to win at 9/10.

Nurnberg vs St. Pauli 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

This kind of fixture makes the German Bundesliga 2 utterly hilarious, honestly. On paper, Nurnberg should generally beat St. Pauli. If this game took place two months ago, I would not hesitate on betting on it either. However, Nurnberg’s heads have fallen off, yet again, and St. Pauli have rediscovered their modjo now that Bundesliga-level attacker Burgstaller is fit again. Subsequently, I’m inclined to back the visitors for this one.

I mean, let’s not skirt the fact that St. Pauli have been absolutely phenomenal lately. They’re a very passionate team anyway but had nothing to inspire that passion earlier in the season because of absentees. Burgstaller’s return has not only given them a good goal-scorer, but has also inspired those around him once more. Subsequently, St. Pauli are back to being the most annoying team in Hamburg to actually outplay. They’ve only failed to win one of their last five games, which was against promotion hopefuls VfL Bochum. At least three of those teams played are supposed to be better than they are too. 

Don’t be misled; St. Pauli are not producing professional displays. No, they’ve simply reverted back to their old selves which outfought teams rather than trying to outsmart them. The difference now is that they’ve suddenly found a goal-scorer, and thus the chances that they usually squander are ending up in the back of the net. Burgstaller has been amazing, although I feel like I’m being a touch harsh on Egyptian forward Marmoush, who has more than played his part as his pacey accomplice. Even towering Danish forward Makienok has played his part now that there’s some kind of service on offer. 

Burgstaller has simply glued everything together so now, instead of over-relying on Uruguayan youngster Zalazar, or waiting for one of forward Kyereh’s rare good days, they’re suddenly playing on the front foot and forcing the issue. Subsequently, Dittgen and Benatelli in midfield have stepped up to the plate, and St. Pauli suddenly look an entirely different prospect. They’re playing far better football now, and playing without fear too. This is a team that now scores goals for fun, and that’s an opponent that Nurnberg can’t hope to deal with at the moment.

Again, on paper, Nurnberg have the stronger side, in my opinion. I was excited for them pre-season because they made all of the necessary changes to prevent themselves from being bad enough to be in the relegation play-off again. It looked that way for a while, too. They were never 100% ‘there’, Nurnberg, but the changes were palpable. Lately though, they’ve gone back to how they were for most of last season, playing without energy, conviction, nor effectiveness. Only sloppiness from Darmstadt 98 allowed them the win last weekend; nothing more than that. They did not play well. They did not suddenly improve after a spate of bad losses. It’s a team with all of the same problems as before, and honestly, I just wonder how long it’ll be before boss Klauss gets sacked. I’m not one for sacking a manager so soon but I’m not seeing anything close to enough progress from what is essentially one of the top four teams in the division. Indeed, I’d be far more inclined to call it ‘regression’.

Even after bringing Norwegian midfielder Daehli to the club, a man who knows this division well from his time at today’s opponents a few years back, I still don’t have any hope for this team. They’re massively over-reliant on big Schaffler up front, who has been injured lately and may not even play today. The sheer class of midfielder Hack has been one of the few positives at Nurnberg this season too, although he’s definitely out for this game as he’s still injured. A lot of their pre-season gambles have failed to come off with Kopke almost never fit, for example. Geis is still a top-drawer player but not enough work as hard as him so what’s the point?

They may not defend well enough, Nurnberg, but it’s their lack of work-rate that I dislike the most. Bad defending can happen, but conceding goals will always to lazy teams. They play with the arrogance of a top team, Nurnberg, despite almost never producing the results nor the displays to back it up. I can’t even blame their absentees because even with a fully sit squad, Nurnberg are painfully close to being classified as disgraceful. They’re doing nothing to stop this slide of theirs, and if they get something from a game against a highly dangerous St. Pauli side today, I will be extremely surprised.

Team news doesn’t help the hosts either. I already mentioned that key midfielder Hack is out, and that star striker Schaffler is a big doubt. Another attacker, Lohkemper, is still injured. Valentini is a doubt, and his substitute last week when he suffered the injury against Darmstadt 98 was Sorg, who later got sent off and is suspended today. These are not ideal absentees for any team, let alone one that masochistically seems to enjoy being atrocious.

For me, backing the underdogs with draw no bet cover at 11/10 is a must today.

Verdict: St. Pauli to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

VfL Bochum vs Eintracht Braunschweig 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

I’m not expecting a massacre here, folks. Eintracht Braunschweig have entered ‘survival’ mode recently, which means that they’ve become a lot sharper, keener, and better organised. They’re still one of the weakest teams in the division, and thus should lose games of this nature, but whilst they’re as focused as they are, they’re going to be annoying to beat. They were annoying as hell for Heidenheim recently, and they pissed off both Holstein Kiel and Hannover 96 too. True enough, they did lose the latter two fixtures but they still gave a good account of themselves. Let me put it another way; a team that underestimates them at the business end of the season is in for a nasty surprise.

Luckily for us, VfL Bochum’s more professional side has come out over the past couple of years. It’s almost as if they not only want to return to the Bundesliga after a lengthy absence from it, but also they are working toward it too. They’ve been building toward this promotion push for a little while now, abandoning their crazy attacking football in favour of a more measured attacking approach. It’s worked well for them this season, and you can only respect them for it when you realise who they’ve been without. I mean, Decarli and Weilandt haven’t kicked a ball between them this season!

Not just that, but purported star striker Ganvoula has one goal in twenty appearances now. New Hungarian striker Novothny has hardly hit the ground running either. Have they got their best from Pantovic too? I wouldn’t say so, not unless I grossly overestimate the ex-Bayern Munich attacker. Despite all of those things, Bochum are fourth in the table, just three points away from drawing level with league leaders Hamburger SV following their typically bottling draw with Greuther Furth yesterday (get used to it; they always do it at this time of year!). Not a bad place to be considering that they’ve not even shown their full hand yet this season.

I just love how resourceful Bochum are, really. When someone drops out of the equation, someone else steps up. Take Lee, for example. I never thought they’d have a midfielder as classy nor as capable as the Korean was but since he’s left, they’ve unleashed Austria’s Zulj, and he’s been one of the best players in the division this season. Ganvoula may have dropped up but suddenly Zoller remembers how to be a dangerous striker, some six years after last being one. Decarli drops out of the equation; no problem because Gamboa is there. They’re flexible, tenacious, and wholly dangerous, Bochum. This is a very good team, and I would not bet against them being promoted. I certainly think that they’ve got the mentality to finish above Hamburger SV.

Eintracht Braunschweig have done some good transfer business in 2021. Defender Behrendt has come in, for example, and their defence looks a lot better for it already. They also somehow managed to persuade Dong-won to play for them. Now, I appreciate it’s been a while since the Korean tore up German football but he’s still a class act. I don’t know what it takes to unlock it nowadays, based on the number of clubs he’s now failed at, but the quality he potentially has access to could easily make him the best player in the Bundesliga 2. It’s a hell of a coup for Eintracht Braunschweig, and he’s already off them mark for them.

Two players don’t make a team though, especially not against one of the division’s best teams. Nigerian forward Abdulahi could make it three but doesn’t seem to want to. Kobylanski has been a real disappointment at this level, often outshone by Kaufmann and Nikolaou. Their pre-season gambles failed to pay off, basically. There’s always a chance of that, I suppose, but it’s likely to cause Eintracht Braunschweig a swift return to the division below. Time will tell if that’s indeed the case or not though.

For today’s game, the visitors are without midfield controller Kroos, which is far from ideal. They might have been able to frustrate Bochum with him in the side but without him, I fear Bochum will find it too easy to control the game, and when they do that, they score goals. Eintracht Braunschweig definitely still have something of an “X” factor in Dong-won, and the work-rate of their midfielders should at least ensure that Bochum are made to sweat for it here. However, Bochum are comfortably better than them, and could not ask for a more opportune time to face the relegation-threatened away team.

Therefore, I’m on Bochum -1 AH at 21/20.

Verdict: VfL Bochum to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 21/20.

Lyngby vs Brondby 

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

The away win here may look tempting, and it really should for anyone that keeps a close eye on Danish football. Brondby have been outstanding this season, grinding out wins, frustrating teams etc. The old Brondby would have just tried to go out and outscore teams but this one tries to outsmart Superligaen outfits – and it’s worked so far. Outsmarting Lyngby is pretty much a given for teams playing at this level anyway, so the away win at 83/100 should always look appealing.

There’s a reason for it today though, and that reason is enough to put me off backing it. The reason is that the pitch at the Lyngby Stadion is a complete mess; you can’t play football on it. The game will go ahead as planned though, which is a distinct disadvantage for the Zealand visitors, given how much they tend to play balls along the floor. I still think that they’re more likely to win this fixture than their hosts are, for what it’s worth, but I just don’t see the point in taking the risk, not on this impossible surface.

Furthermore, I think it’s fair to say that Brondby showed a few signs of rust against Aalborg BK recently. It wasn’t a horrendous display, but it showed that they’re still a week or two away from their best, the title hopefuls. As poor as Lyngby can be defensively, getting around their wall of energy can be challenging. That’s even truer when you consider that Brondby haven’t exactly been prolific in front of goal this season. Big Uhre has played his role well, and so has Hedlund, but there’s no Wilczek in this squad anymore. The best they’ve got in front of goal is young midfielder Lindstrom, which speaks volumes. The Brondby project under Frederiksen may be working, but there are reasons for it working; it’s not because they’re now the best team in Denmark.

Subsequently, I’m left doubting Brondby’s chances just a tad today. Again, I still think that they’re more likely to win it than Lyngby are, but on this pitch I would not back any team to win right now. Instead, I can see a frustrating match in which most moves don’t come off, and the teams aren’t rust-free enough to convert their opportunities. Brondby should still control the game well enough, and I doubt they’ll give much away with Radosevic patrolling in front of the back four, but I’m just not convinced Brondby will be good enough in the final third to counteract all of the problems that exist there right now.

Lyngby are battlers, if nothing else. They’re not the most streetwise of teams but any opponent not expecting to work their socks off against them is in for a nasty surprise. Brondby know that, though – it’s not their first rodeo! Lyngby have surprised me with how focused they’ve looked in 2021. I would not read too much into it because such things never last at this club, but whilst they’re annoying clubs from Aarhus and Odense as they have been, it stands to reason that they could irk Brondby on a far more challenging pitch too

With their best forward Gytkjaer still injured, as he has been for most of their campaign, it’s hard for me to envision Lyngby scoring in this game. With central midfielder Romer also missing, I think they’ll struggle to gain a foothold in the encounter. This is an experienced, close-knit group though, so I am confident that they’ll make life tough for their more illustrious opposition. Beating Brondby looks a bridge too far right now though, even if the home team does adjust to the awful pitch better than the away team.

I can see these two teams cancelling one another out today with a little help from the pitch itself, so backing under 2.5 goals at 19/20 is far more appealing right now than the deceptively seductive away win.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 19/20.

Girondins de Bordeaux vs Olympique de Marseille

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

It doesn’t really matter who they’re facing anymore; opposing Marseille is simply the right thing to do when it comes to Ligue 1 betting. Their bad streaks won’t last forever, and they’re not a shit team, but they play like amateurs for a multitude of reasons, and you just can’t do that against Bordeaux nowadays.

I’m still not blown away by the Bordeaux attack, but their all-round structure is good. It’s not something I really anticipated Gasset bringing to the role. His appointment was a risky one, but it’s worked out rather well for Bordeaux thus far. I assumed he’d take a leaf out of Galtier’s back, playing the old 4-3-3 with attack the priority but he’s not done that. Mind you, it’s a wise call for him to not do that, given Bordeaux’s real lack of attacking quality. They’ve had to drag Ben Arfa off the scrapheap in order to have some kind of route to goal that actually works, you know?

Ironically, it’s been their defending that has been the problem of late though. I expect weak attacking from Bordeaux but not concentration lapses, which is precisely what cost them away from home against Stade Brestois and Olympique Lyonnais respectively. Ordinarily, they’ll hold most leads that they get but they’ve taken their eyes off the prize a bit too often lately, and it’s now led them to four consecutive defeats. I’m not worried, though. The Bordeaux form guide makes sense to me, and I get what Gasset is doing. If given time, it should work, but Bordeaux is not the club it once was so they may not have the patience for him. Time will tell.

For now though, I trust Bordeaux to deliver a committed and organised display. With Koscielny and Baysse there to hold the defence together, Costil between the sticks, Seri having now joined as a midfield controller, Oudin playing as a decent target man should, Ben Arfa and Adil making things happen, and both Briand and Ui-jo adding that bit of intelligent movement to the final third, Bordeaux do have an acceptable spine to their team now. It’s far from perfect, but I can see how it’s shaping up, and I like the gradual progress they’ve made. I still wouldn’t trust them to beat most teams in Ligue 1, especially given how challenging they find coming from behind, but a spineless Marseille should be just what the Doctor ordered for the home team.

Marseille – I mean, where do you even start with this team? Appointing Villas-Boas was a joke to begin with, and he ended up offering to leave without any severance pay because he couldn’t do any more with this squad. The club signed Ntcham without him being on Villas-Boas’ list, so who made that call, and with what intent, I don’t know. I don’t know why they opted to let Strootman and Sanson go because neither of them are inferior to Ntcham. At the time they needed a proven goal-scorer, they signed Milik, who has not been a consistent goal-scorer (nor even consistently on a pitch) for quite some time now. They needed depth; it came in positions they already have cover for. I’m just bewildered by everything this club does nowadays, honestly.

The manager for now is Larguet, at least until they find the next poor SOB to take over. I see some good individuals in this squad but nobody really knows why they’re there anymore. The goal posts move all of the time, the managers change too often, and the club appears to have no long-term plan anyway. Some of the players’ body language shows that they don’t want to be there anymore, and I wish I could take the moral high ground here, but I would feel precisely like they do in their situation. I mean, what is the point? If Marseille could stop the season now, they would – that’s how bad things are right now.

In their last Ligue 1 game, Marseille were beaten by PSG at home. Losing against PSG is nothing shameful, but being lazier than the capital club definitely is – and they were. Payet cleverly got himself sent off at the end of that fixture to ensure he doesn’t need to play in this lifeless team for a few games, and he’s not the only one out today with Croatian defender Caleta-Car, French full-back Amavi, and Polish striker Milik all missing too. That makes their defence a lot more suspect, and their attack only likely to find the net if Thauvin produces some magic – and how long before he leaves? Honestly, he’s been carrying this club for what feels like years now.

New faces, new interim manager, good players having left, and problematic absentees; what’s not to like about opposing Marseille today? Again, their bad run won’t last forever but there’s no real reason to doubt Bordeaux’s chances here, especially not with draw no bet cover. 

Verdict: Girondins de Bordeaux to win with draw no bet at 83/100.