TFT Issue 3349!

With Sevilla CF looking rather confident and efficient, and Bv09 Borussia Dortmund still playing like a bunch of idiots after stupidly sacking Favre without having a replacement ready, backing the Andalusians tonight was something of a no-brainer to me tonight, whether the tip wins or not. The bottom line is that these two teams are in different places mentally right now, and that makes a big difference on a big stage.

I mean, anyone that doubted Lopetegui’s pedigree is a moron, for my money. He wasn’t given time at Real Madrid, which is pretty much a standard occurrence there, so he was unable to show what he’s capable of. His FC Porto and his Spain teams were really good though. Alright, there were times in Portugal where you could question his selections as he experimented here and there but there was this winning mentality that he helped maintain, and you can’t buy that. He’s able to tap into the minds of his players, and that always gets the best out of them, which was very evident with Spain. I still believe that they had a damn good chance of winning that tournament before the saga that ensued just days before its start, which culminated in him leaving. 

So now it’s Sevilla that are benefiting from his presence, and if anyone needed that calming touch, it’s the hot-headed Andalusians. In the past, they’ve played pretty football, and recorded some brilliant results, and even won the UEFA Europa League/UEFA Cup more than anyone else that comes to mind. Despite all of that though, and despite constantly being a respected, quality team in Spain, they never competed for the major honours – until now. I firmly believe that Lopetegui gives them that edge, and their performances this season support such a theory.

He knows precisely what he’s doing. I mean, who else would have deployed winger Navas at right-back? He’s actually carved out quite a good living there though, not that he can play tonight. He’s made intelligent signings to balance the squad out better, bringing in the likes of Jordan and Kounde to be the force behind the passing of Rakitic, and the outrageous skill of Gomez and Suso. They’ve not overspent, either – I love that. They’ve got players for every situation, Sevilla, and look like the real deal. Although I appreciate that now really is a good time to try and close the gap at the top with Barcelona still looking very amateur to me under Koeman, and Real Madrid’s transition being slow-paced at best, I still don’t think that Lopetegui’s work should be underestimated. He’s done a marvellous job in every sense of the word, and his team is one to take seriously now, even in the UEFA Champions League.

I would have expected an interesting duel tonight if Favre was still in charge of the visitors, who is yet another very good manager, but Dortmund were dumb enough to sack him so that won’t happen. Instead, it’s rookie Terzic, who has hardly set the world alight since taking over, and who can be surprised? He took the job with no experience of managing a supposedly under-achieving team at a high level, and then folk seem surprised when the likes of Leverkusen and Gladbach are besting them, week in, week out. Even the relegation-threatened teams know how to annoy them, and yet still Dortmund won’t admit that they were wrong to sack Favre, who had done nothing but improve an ailing Dortmund team during his time there. I guess people really just don’t get how bang average Dortmund truly are nowadays if they thought he was doing a bad job.

I mean, when he took over, have people forgotten how bad Dortmund had been? They’d been conceding three or four goals per game, not controlling a single match, and playing very predictably – something like they’ve been doing since he left, unsurprisingly. When he came in, he brought in Witsel to help them control games better, and signed strikers to stop everything being pointless passes around the edge of their opponents’ box. He tweaked lots of little things and suddenly Dortmund looked like a top and feared team in Germany once more. Yes, they had their disappointing moments but that happens in transitional phases. Then Dortmund sacked him, replaced him with somebody not ready to do the job, and have now just written off the entire campaign by announcing that Marco Rose (Gladbach) is to take over next season. If you were a Dortmund player, would you be motivated for the rest of this campaign now? I can’t promise I would. Indeed, I would not be surprised if the likes of Sancho, Guerreiro, and Haaland started looking around for their next adventure because this boat isn’t going anywhere for awhile, and that’s coming from someone that really, really rates Rose as a manager.

So now Dortmund have to go to the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan and somehow outsmart a very competent, composed, and consistent home team. Dortmund will enjoy some elements of this match as the Spaniards are not going to be wholly defensive here. However, are Dortmund really a team that can be trusted to outscore good sides in such scenarios nowadays? I don’t think so. Furthermore, they’re without some key players for the trip to Spain. Burki may be back here, and let’s hope he is; he’s a disaster in big games! Reus is back but he’s not been an amazing player for years now. They’re still without midfield controller Witsel, and with Delaney out too, it’s Can or nobody, which isn’t a good start against a team that monopolises possession really well. They’re missing wing-back options on both sides. I mean, I still don’t think Meunier was the right player for them to bring in but he’s still the best that they’ve got on the right; who is going to do that job whilst he’s out tonight? 

I just think Dortmund are a walking disaster at the moment. Even if they had everybody fit, I still would not fancy their chances here. Haaland is amazing; he’ll give them a chance by himself. Guerreiro has been fabulous this season. Sancho has blown hot and cold, but when he’s hot, he’s unplayable. Other than that though, this team is looking a little too average for me with their erratic goalkeepers, mostly slow centre-backs, and limited number of central midfielders, not to mention decisive players in the final third. They need an experienced hand to guide this team at the moment and they don’t have one so they’re being swept away far too often in matches – and I believe they will be tonight too.

Anything can happen in the UEFA Champions League, I suppose, but at 13/10, I’m sure you can see from the above why I fancy a home win.