TFT Issue 3350!

Dynamo Kyiv vs Club Brugge

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

As expected, the impact of Romanian boss Lucescu at Dynamo has been very positive. I know there were darker things that occurred when the ex-Shakhtar Donetsk man took over, but the football that the Ukrainian heavyweights now play is so much better than it has been for a long time. The dank, dour football of Khatskevich vs the brilliant ball use of Lucescu? There’s no competition, really. I think Dynamo’s fans had forgotten what playing good football was all about until his appointment actually.

There are still some Dynamo fans that criticise the team though, even know. They have fonder memories of being more entertaining and more goal-hungry. I believe Lucescu will take them back to that ‘place’, if you will, but it’s not a quick fix. He needs to get more players into this squad that are as comfortable on the ball as Rodrigues, which is precisely why they’ve signed Clayton from Bahia. Lucescu is trying to separate the team in order to make it more flexible, you see. Like his old Shakhtar Donetsk side, he wants Dynamo to be able to attack and defend in flexible phases without being overly predictable. It’ll take a long time to achieve, but I recognise the direction they’re heading in.

In the meantime, they’re a bit over-reliant on certain players in the final third to make things happen, and they’re still a little bit hesitant when it comes to committing men forward. These are minor issues, though. The team is performing well as a whole, and seldom leave games without scoring goals nowadays. Tsygankov is finally back to his best, Rodrigues is still annoying as hell to play against, Verbic is playing well, and the likes of Harmash and Bukalskyi look like they’re finally coming around to this new way of playing. I think they’ll be even better if/when Duelund becomes a regular in the team, although the main problem is finding a regular goal-scorer, really. I wondered if they’d try Fran Sol again after his loan expired because he’d be the perfect fit (his last spell at this club was in a very defensive team so the use of him was embarrassingly poor) but they’ve loaned him out to Tenerife, presumably keeping the faith with Supryaha, or possibly bringing Besedin/Clayton instead. 

Either way, Dynamo are now at a stage where I do trust them to find a way to score against teams. Defensively, they’ve got a long way to go, which is presumably why Sidicley wasn’t given a new loan spell elsewhere after his last one expired. They look a bit too naive at the back basically, and their goalkeeping situation is far from ideal. Still, the purpose of this team is to attack and score goals, and that’s what I believe they’ll try to do today. They don’t fear Club Brugge but they probably should; this is a very complicated team to deal with because of their athleticism. Dynamo can at least score in this game but containing Club Brugge in a first leg affair (that they really need to win) does not look an optimal situation for Dynamo here. The last time they tried it was in the UEFA Champions League back in 2019, and that ended 3-3. Club Brugge have become a lot better since then.

I stand by what I’ve said about Club Brugge for a year or two now; they’re actually better in Europe than they are domestically. In the Eerste Klasse, their athleticism isn’t quite such an advantage because other teams at that level prioritise such too. In Europe though, not many teams can keep up with them. The only two things that stop Club Brugge from proving it more regularly is their inability to defend consistently well under pressure, and their lack of consistency in front of goal – and I’d like to think that the arrival of big Bas Dost would solve at least one of those issues. 

I’ve lost count of how many good teams I’ve watched Club Brugge dominate, only to let themselves down in one way or another. They’ve done it twice to Dortmund earlier in the season, losing both games in what appears to be a massacre format – but the reality is quite different. I watched them outplay Lazio away from home despite playing the majority of that game with ten men too. This is a seriously dangerous team, one that should not be underestimated. I agree that they need to hone their efforts at both ends but tactically and physically, they’re one hell of a handful, Club Brugge.

Their chances in Ukraine tonight have been hit pretty hard by defensive absentees though. Mitrovic has been out all season anyway, but now new arrival Denswil and Sobol, the latter of which has been a regular this season, are both out too, and this team really doesn’t need any ‘encouragement’ when it comes to conceding goals! They’re also without attacking midfielders Vanaken and de Ketelaere but I’m less concerned by that as they have ample options in their squad when it comes to getting forward, one of which is a talisman of theirs, namely Ruud Vormer.

With ex-AFC Ajax Amsterdam attacker Lang in lethal form this season, big Dost, all-rounder Okereke, and young target man Badji as backup, Club Brugge are not short of routes to goal, and they’ve been helped by the departure of overrated Nigerian forward Dennis to desperate Koln, albeit on loan. They’ve brought in Chong on loan from Manchester United, who is another good dribbler too. Therefore, despite the team’s shortcomings at the back, their attacking power should not be underestimated. They’re excellent from both open play and on the break, Club Brugge, and they love to play as underdogs.

First legs are traditionally cagey affairs but Club Brugge are a very high-pressing, hard-hitting, goal-scoring team, and they’re up against an opponent who are tasked by their boss with goal-scoring rather than containing. That, fused with Club Brugge’s absentees, paves the way for an over 2.5 goals affair in my little world.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

FK Krasnodar vs Dinamo Zagreb

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

I appreciate that Krasnodar’s players probably haven’t even seen a ball in months, and that they’re going to be rusty here. They’ve only participated in friendlies in 2021, after all. It’s a risk, backing a team like that. Honestly, though – they can’t be any worse than Dinamo Zagreb right now. They just can’t.

I do think that the winter break has helped Krasnodar, though. They were knackered after their consistent UEFA Champions League meetings, hence their poor domestic displays this season, and they’ve had multiple injury problems along the way too. I’ve lost count of how many times they’ve been without key players – and let’s not forget how much Covid-19 screwed with them too. Really, they’ve been very unfortunate this season, Krasnodar, and for my money, they still play the best football in Russia. It’s safe to say that they need to turn those positives into wins but they know that, and should be raring to prove it tonight.

Krasnodar are arguably the best Russian team when it comes to dealing with European opponents too. Although the Russian Premier League has gradually undergone changes in recent years as more and more teams have introduced better styles of play (off the back of Krasnodar’s blueprint, of course!), Krasnodar are the most naturally comfortable and confident on the ball. They’ve got lots of ways to hurt teams, and they seldom fail to make it count in such situations. It’s a tall order, but winning this competition really isn’t beyond such a capable outfit.

On their day, the likes of Claesson, Vihena, and especially Cabella makes this team impossible to defend against. I should really include Wanderson in that equation too, who is now back from injury, and hasn’t been signed by another club. Ari is still injured, but experienced striker Berg is still there, as is wonderkid Suleymanov, who has scored some terrific goals in this competition over the past couple of years. They’ve got options, Krasnodar, and a lot of cohesion, not to mention mental strength. Even with rusty legs, and holding midfielder Kaio out, I still expect good things from them.

The teams that hurt Krasnodar the most are those that try to get at their suspect defence. Based on what I’ve seen from Dinamo Zagreb in 2021, that won’t be happening much tonight. I know that their form guide doesn’t look too incriminating but honestly, it really is. They’ve beaten a Hajduk Split team in disarray,  their own “B” team Lokomotiva Zagreb at home, scraped past an awful Istra 1961 side away from home, and limped past Osijek at home last time out, even ending with ten men as newcomer Ristovski was dismissed. I can’t fault a team for winning games, and there’s no doubt that Dinamo Zagreb are the kingpins in Croatian football, but this is not an impressive team to me.

When I watched them lose at home against newly-promoted Sibenik a couple of weeks back, it wasn’t an accident. It wasn’t a smash-and-grab job that Sibenik rode their luck with. No, you have to remember that Dinamo Zagreb has a lot of officials on their books; they’ll call in favours where required. The brutal reality is that they barely penetrated Sibenik’s stubborn defence, and they never once comfortably dealt with their counters. It ended 2-1; Sibenik should have scored five by my count. I’ve seen some good Dinamo Zagreb sides in the past with players that European opponents have had to be wary of, but this one does nothing for me.

I mean, they’ve got a good target man in Gavranovic but they don’t have a convincing wide game. They’ve not replaced Olmo with any natural flair player. They’ve got a couple of very tidy central midfielders in Ivanusec and Majer but there’s nothing for them to work with. Aside from numerous threats from set pieces, this Dinamo Zagreb side looks slow, predictable, and frankly unfit. They may still be able to grind out wins in Croatia with this squad, but Europe? Even against a rusty Krasnodar side, I would be surprised to see it.

Now, I remember watching Dinamo Zagreb’s last trip to Russia, which was against CSKA Moscow earlier in the season. They performed very well in that game, defending intelligently, and affording their hosts very few shots on goal whilst remaining a solid enough threat on the break. This Dinamo Zagreb team doesn’t look as convincing as that, and they’re up against a team that is far harder to contain. For me, even without having played a competitive match in months, the home win at 23/20 is something that requires very serious consideration today.

Verdict: FK Krasnodar to win at 23/20.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs PSV Eindhoven

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

The last time PSV Eindhoven travelled to Greece in a European match was to face PAOK in Salonika in 2020 – and they were hammered. They may have had some absentees, but in that game I saw the weaknesses that the Dutch heavyweights have been doing their best to conceal all season long. In the Eredivisie, they’ve generally done it very well because of their superior firepower but it’s shown a lot in Europe, their inability to cope with good tactical teams, and they couldn’t have picked a more experienced, streetwise European team for this round than Olympiakos Piraeus, in my opinion. I think PSV Eindhoven are going to find this trip very, very challenging.

I won’t deny that the visitors have their moments. Their attacking, at times, is pure dynamite. Malen has taken a lot of the praise this season, and he’s been excellent. I also think that Madueke and Gakpo have been very good, and the class of Gotze and Zahavi cannot be denied. Whether on the break or from open play, they usually have a route to goal, PSV Eindhoven, and doubting them on that front is very dangerous. Like most Dutch teams though, they lack the intelligence in their displays to perform consistently well away from home. Indeed, I’ve only been impressed by them on the road in the UEFA Europa League just once this season. I thought they were atrocious in Salonika against a team that not only kept the ball better than them, but used it more dangerously. I thought they were really poor in their win over Omonia Nicosia too, needing a late strike from Malen to rescue them against yet another solid tactical team. 

PSV Eindhoven may be well-equipped to outscore most Dutch teams, but European teams really do look too much for them, in my opinion. I previewed their trip to ADO Den Haag at weekend, stating how poor they’d become at controlling games. This is where you need to watch games though, and I cannot stress that enough. Their form guide may have been decent lately, but they’ve not been playing well. They’ve won games by virtue of relying on their individuals to bail them out. Alright, that’ll work more often than not at a club like this but there are times that it won’t because their opponents will actually convert some of the many opportunities that they’re getting against PSV – and that’s what happened in Den Haag. That’s what happened in Rotterdam against an honestly inferior Feyenoord side. As good as they can be at scoring goals, PSV are not good at controlling games, which is why it baffled me when they let Hendrix go.

Olympiakos are a real pain to play against too, which doesn’t help. Far better teams than PSV have struggled with the Greek heavyweights before, and I can’t even remember the last campaign they had which didn’t involve European football. They’ve got enough financial backing to bring very technically gifted footballers in from the likes of Portugal and Spain, which affords them a natural level of comfort on the ball. They’ve got a lot of experienced heads in their squad, and plenty of match winners too. This is not a team to take lightly, folks, especially not with their midfield balance being as pristine as it is.

As arguably the best team in Greece, they seldom struggle to bring good Greek players to them after stints abroad. Fortounis is one they’ve been lucky enough to never actually lose, but the likes of Papadopoulos, Sokratis, and Holebas are amongst those to have returned to add that bit more quality to the squad. They’re good at everything, Olympiakos, without being brilliant at anything. They have their limitations, but when it comes to hosting teams in the UEFA Europa League, there’s not a team I’d confidently back to beat them, looking at all potential opponents. They’re awkward, basically, and unbelievably patient too. Dealing with them is horrendous.

As far as I am concerned, Olympiakos should be too smart for PSV here. They played really well in all of their UEFA Champions League home games but didn’t convert well enough against FC Porto, and left themselves too open on the break as they knew they had to win that game, which allowed their opponents to score a decider. They were solid enough against Manchester City, and comfortably outplayed Olympique de Marseille twice, although they were robbed by officials in the game in France. I have a lot of faith in this team. It takes a lot of tactical organisation and clinical finishing to beat them, and PSV Eindhoven only have one of those things on a good day.

With the visitors not playing well at the moment, surrendering possession far too easily, and their hosts the far more experienced European team nowadays, I have to back the home win at 11/10.

Verdict: Olympiakos Piraeus to win at 11/10.

Red Star Belgrade vs AC Milan

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

When it’s come to away games in the UEFA Europa League, AC Milan have been far more impressive than at home this season. They’ve looked more professional, Pioli has taken less risks with his selections, and their patience has generally paid off. I’m expecting them to do something similar on a tricky pitch in Serbia tonight too.

AC Milan are the favourites, understandably, but they looked like they’d ran out of steam against plucky Spezia at the weekend so I’d think twice before backing them here, even though they’re clearly the better team. They’re in a tricky place at the moment too, Milan. They know that winning this competition is very much an attainable prospect but they’re still flying high in Serie A, and a Scudetto would mean much more to the club and their fans than a UEFA Europa League win. However, the underlying target is UEFA Champions League football, and it’s handy to have two routes to it at this stage of the season although I expect the Italians to rotate for the trip tonight, I don’t think they’ll do so with the intent of playing the game out without a care of what actually transpires.

Indeed, I think they’ll go to Serbia and play a patient style of football – because it makes sense to. Their hosts are fast on the break, and you don’t want to give defence-minded teams the chance to go ahead. A patient game would not only see Milan dictate the tempo and give less chances away, but would also lessen the impact of the pitch, which is not in ideal condition right now. Subsequently, I’m expecting a professional display from Milan, but not one where the likes of Ibrahimovic are fielded to destroy their hosts.

For me, the bigger question is what Red Star Belgrade will choose to do. I mean, their chances of going through are slender but if they are to manage it, I think they have to win tonight as a starting point – so will they go for it? Time will tell. I’d like to think that they’d be a bit wary of this unfamiliar superior opponent but if not, we’re in trouble because playing openly against Milan will encourage the visitors to do it too – and they’re better at it! Luckily, Red Star Belgrade have crammed a couple of domestic matches in prior to this game so the rust has mostly left their players now, having beaten both Novi Pazar and Radnicki Nis away from home, so I don’t see them panicking in this match, or making too many rash calls. Helpfully, they’ve retained the majority of their squad from earlier in the season too, only losing big Boakye in attack to Gornik Zabrze in Poland and Austrian midfielder Spiridonovic to Genclerbirligi in Turkey.

Indeed, this squad – which I still maintain is the strongest Red Star Belgrade squad I’ve seen in many moons – has only been added to with the Serbian juggernauts flexing their muscle again, bringing in yet more recruits from, rather ironically, Italy. Fast French forward Bakayoko has joined on loan from Internazionale after a pretty disappointing spell with St. Gallen in Switzerland, for example, and attacking midfielder Falco has arrived from Lecce too. The club has also brought experienced midfielder Simic back to the club after a few years in Spain with Las Palmas so they’ve bolstered their ranks, really.

I still maintain that Red Star Belgrade are at their best when playing on the break though, which is why the absence of star creator Katai does not concern me tonight when it comes to Red Star Belgrade’s chances. As far as my under 2.5 goals selection goes, the absence of any creator is good news, really! With Falcinelli as target man and Ben Nabouhane his pacey accomplice, Red Star Belgrade are in a position to threaten teams without committing lots of men forward, especially when factoring in how good Ivanic and Nikolic have been this season. For me though, the standout area of this team is their defensive midfielders because when you’ve got Sanogo and/or Kanga controlling things, it’s so hard to get past them, especially with rocks like Gajic and Degenek behind them. It’s far from impossible for Milan to score tonight but let’s just say that I trust their hosts to make it really hard for them to do so.

Therefore, assuming Milan play the patient, controlling game that they can do so well when they want to, backing under 2.5 goals at 4/5 is very appealing to me.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Young Boys Bern vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

Am I the only one that really fancies Leverkusen here? That’s never a good sign, is it? It’s true, though – I can’t see a reason to doubt Leverkusen.

Young Boys have still been beating most Swiss teams; fair play to them. I don’t like the job Seoane has done there, but they’re still grinding out the wins, and that’s all that matters really. It’s a really poor Super League with no competition for them though. Therefore, even when they’ve had bad runs this season, they still emerge from it at the top of the table so they’re not panicking in any game. Even when they concede, they know they can up the ante, and get the result that they want. Domestically, it’s hard to deal with them.

In Europe though, I’m not impressed. Their weaknesses are far more apparent at this level, and have been for a while now. Hutter’s Young Boys were very competitive at this level but Seoane’s team is not. They give too many chances away, especially from diagonals over the back three, and they are not good enough to take their own. They have their moments of playing beautiful football, Young Boys – I won’t deny them that. At times, their midfield is truly breathtaking. However, they seldom use it properly, and seldom impress because of it. I don’t even know how they got through their UEFA Europa League group because they didn’t outplay a single team in it other than when hosting CSKA Sofia.

Their incompetent manager is one problem, and their insufficient tactical strength in Europe is another, but another problem exists for Young Boys tonight, which is borne out of the Seoane problem. You see, this team lacks depth, especially in wing-back positions, and in attack. They’re not without wing-backs tonight so that’s fine. However, they are without their only good striker, Nsame, who is suspended. Siebatcheu has done well in 2021 but there’s a reason that a twenty-four year old forward is on loan from Stade Rennais “B” team, and it’s not because he’s secretly a good player, just waiting to emerge. He’s made a career out of being a disappointment, Siebatcheu, and he is no fit replacement for Nsame, sorry. They missed the boat, Seoane and co., because Nsame’s backup should have been Abubakar from SC Kriens, but he’s now joined Lugano instead. They’re also without key centre-back Camara, who isn’t the best on the ball but he wins most crosses and is very strong; there’s no real replacement for him in a back three that does lack in physical strength. All of those problems, even on their plastic pitch, really make me fear for the Swiss champions tonight.

I assume I’m supposed to be put off by Leverkusen’s form guide but I’m really not. Anyone that regards this seas a consistently good team needs their head examining. They’ve been inconsistent for a long time now, and it’s been that way because they only ever bring in managers that know how to coach attacking football. Defending has been a weak spot for them for a long time now, and with so many midfielders still playing in defence, it’s not hard to see why it’s still an issue. Subsequently, when this team draws at home against Mainz 05, I am not surprised. It’s a risk that Leverkusen regularly take, and it’s even cost them their DFB Pokal place against part-timers Rot-Weiss Essen not long ago. 

I’ll let you into a little secret, though. The biggest weakness Leverkusen have, given their style of play, is breaking teams down. They’re quite bad at it, actually, which is fair enough when you consider that they’ve lost Brandt and Havertz over the past two years, exposing Bailey as the very overrated winger that he absolutely is. Note how all four defeats from their last seven games – no matter what level of football we’re talking – have come against teams that know how to be awkward to break down. Also note how they’ve bagged nine goals in three games against teams that dared to come at them. They’re not coincidental statistics.

Leverkusen have their weaknesses, it’s true. I could rant about them all day if you wanted me to, ranging from Alario’s inability to be a good finisher on the floor to Diaby’s inability to release the ball at the right time to the fielding of the Bender brothers in the back four etc. etc. However, the bottom line for me is that Leverkusen are in a far better place than Young Boys right now, and they sure as hell tend to turn up when teams have the gumption to actually attack them, which the Swiss champions unquestionably will. When that happens, the likes of Bailey and Diaby get so much space that they eventually make something happen, usually with the help of Demirbay and Wirtz – and I suspect Gray will contribute even more with time too, as he’s a very gifted player. 

I may not trust Leverkusen defensively, and the Mainz 05 game shows why, but I do trust them outscore teams that attack them. Even Europe’s best teams have struggled with them in the past on that front. The best way to deal with them is to sit, and watch them fail to break you down, before hitting them with a sucker punch; it works every bloody time against a Bosz team. Young Boys can’t play that way though. They’ll continue with their high defensive line and attacking style, and against a fast Leverkusen attack, I think they’re in serious trouble tonight. Young Boys do not look cut out for European football; I expect Leverkusen to prove why that is.

Verdict: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win at 11/10.

SL Benfica vs Arsenal

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

Although Arteta is gradually bringing in a more possession-intensive style of play at Arsenal, the project is far from complete, and thus more settled teams tend to disrupt them somewhat. I still think Arteta has done an excellent job there, weeding out the weak links, and bringing in good players, but that kind of appointment has been a long time coming at Arsenal so he’s got a lot of shit to undo from his predecessors.

Personally, I think that the UEFA Europa League should now be a priority for Arsenal as it’s a very winnable competition (Arsenal always seem to be a great Cup team, if nothing else) and they’d be in the UEFA Champions League next season, which is something that looks less and less likely for them via a high Premier League finish – for now. Therefore, they shouldn’t rotate players too much for this game. If that is indeed the case, I think we’ll see a strong Arsenal side trouble SL Benfica in Rome. 

Whether they’ll win the first leg or not, I don’t know. They’re more than capable of it, and their ‘hosts’ don’t know how to defend, but Arsenal’s ability to implode at all times makes me doubt them from a 1×2 perspective. Still, with their live wires Martinelli, Smith-Rowe, and Saka all back and mostly in-form, I don’t doubt their capacity to hurt teams. Ironically, it’s the more experienced Arsenal players like Lacazette, Aubameyang, and Willian that are impressing the least at the moment. It’s good that Arsenal have such talented, energetic youngsters in their squad though, as it helps to keep them competitive, especially with Ceballos running the show. I can’t trust their defending until they find a partner for Gabriel though, and Benfica should have some joy on that front here. With both of these teams technically being ‘away’ for this game though, I’d like to think Arsenal would treat this UEFA Europa League tie as more of a final than a first leg, meaning that they should put more into trying to win it.

I mean, for my money, Arsenal are better than Benfica. However, I would also argue that Benfica are the more settled team, especially with Jesus back in charge. Benfica’s inability to defend is nothing new; they just don’t seem very interested in dealing with it. I mean, even Ruben Dias made too many mistakes for them, and yet he’s come on leaps and bounds at Manchester City, so perhaps the problem is Benfica themselves. I really don’t know, but the bottom line is that their full-backs only know how to attack, and their centre-backs simply aren’t very good at defending.

A Jorge Jesus team will keep and use the ball very well, though – that’s been his trademark wherever he’s gone. Truth be told, I’d love to see him manage the national team rather than Benfica because Santos’ football is so boring; Jesus could do so much more with a really gifted group. Anyway, for now, Benfica have him back, and he’s doing well enough, keeping them both honest and competitive. I’m pleased that they’ve unearthed Uruguayan striker Nunez to keep the goals flowing too because I know Seferovic is just a battering ram. A good one, but not a good finisher, so his goals will always dry up sooner or later. 

With Pizzi, Everton, Silva, and even forgotten man Taarabt in the equation though, Benfica are never short of chances. I should really include Weigl and Waldschmidt too as the Germans get all over the pitch for the Lisbon heavyweights! They may lack the same enthusiasm when it comes to helping out their defenders, but Benfica lack nothing when it comes to passing their way around teams, and scoring goals. They’re an experienced team in Europe, of course, and even taking on good teams doesn’t faze them. I believe they’re confident enough to get at Arsenal here, and they’re good enough to hurt them. Whether it’s enough to give them the advantage in this tie or not, I honestly couldn’t say.

For me though, backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 simply makes sense here, even if first legs are traditionally more cautious than anything. 

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.