TFT Issue 3351!

Adelaide United vs Central Coast Mariners

KO: 08:05 (UK time)

Well, here’s a tip I never thought I’d be giving. Adelaide United got a lot right pre-season, and the Mariners did something similar to what they usually do, so I would almost always expect a home win in this fixture.

However, things aren’t going well for Adelaide, and things are going well for the Mariners. I keep waiting for the day to come where the Mariners run out of luck but it’s not happened yet. A Ball red card for Phoenix last time out left them with an easy home run, and Adelaide’s absentee list today is hugely problematic too. I don’t want to give you all the impression that what the Mariners have done this season is entirely centred upon luck because that wouldn’t be fair or accurate of me. They are not the best team in Australia though, and they will come unstuck sooner or later because they’re simply not good enough to keep grinding out the wins.

Credit to Stajcic and co. though. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen heart in the Mariners’ squad, but this lot have it in abundance. Their kids coming through are all shining, a few players that time had forgotten about have suddenly returned to the fore, and their organisation levels have been very good. It’s been hard for their marquee signings to get near the starting eleven, although Costa Rican forward Urena played really well lately. He’s not a natural finisher, but his intelligence, hold-up play, awareness etc. are all very valuable assets.

The Mariners are basically outbattling teams at the moment, and outsmarting a lot of them too. There’s a lot of energy and stamina in this relatively young side, and when you fuse that with some favourable results, and some surprisingly consistent displays from players that haven’t been all that consistent in recent years, you get good results. Ironically enough, the player this season that has worried me the most for them has been shot stopper Birighitti, who has easily been their best player for the past few years but he’s had some nervy moments this season.

I’m not here to tell you that the Mariners are perfect because they’re most certainly not. Again, their luck will run out at some stage, and someone is going to hit them hard because they’re really not doing enough to keep teams out in defence despite Tongyik’s best efforts – and he really has played well this season. They’re very confident in their ability to outscore teams at the moment, the Mariners, but that shouldn’t mean that they allow themselves to be complacent at the back, which has happened a lot lately. Still, for now, I like where they’re at, and I think they’ve landed on their feet with today’s fixture.

Adelaide were absolutely atrocious in their hammering against Macarthur FC last time out; 4-0 was a perfect reflection of the game. I never thought that The Reds got into it, constantly on the back foot, consistently giving the ball away, and giving their opponents nothing to think about at the other end. I don’t honestly think Macarthur FC had to play well in order to achieve it either, which is the scary part though. I associate Adelaide with speed and intensity but it wasn’t there in that game so the Sydney outfit simply bossed it at their leisure. They looked short of confidence and short of options, and I doubt much will change today.

I still think that the re-signing of Craig Goodwin will make a whole world of difference because he’s a great, experienced attacker, and they need that at times like these. However, he’s still in quarantine so he can’t play. They’re still without half of their back four with Strain and Jakobsen out, the latter of which is their defensive organiser. Lopez is back but with his injury problems in mind, I doubt he’s going to be risked here. I don’t see this Adelaide defence keeping a rampant Mariners team out, to be frank.

At the other end, I’m sure that Halloran, Toure, Mauk, and Juric will ensure that their opponents have at least got something to worry about today. Whether it happens often enough is another matter though. I find that Adelaide are bullied out of matches too easily at the moment, as can happen with young teams. The Mariners will most likely do the same here, and that makes me wonder where the Adelaide goals will come from.

I still regard Adelaide United as the better team here, for clarity. When the reversal of this fixture comes around, don’t be surprised if you see me backing Adelaide United to win. However, at this moment in time, it makes a lot of sense to oppose The Reds, and it makes a lot of sense to trust the visitors. Therefore, I’m on the away win with draw no bet cover.

Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to win with draw no bet at 49/50.

Slaven Koprivnica vs Sibenik

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

I’ve been a big fan of backing Slaven to get something in home games over the years because they’ve always been very capable of doing so. Even during the hardest, cash-strapped moments of their existence, this team has still operated at 200% capacity in home games, even upsetting the very best teams that Croatia has to offer. They’ve never been crap, Slaven, but it’s been some time since they were good so it’s surprising that they’ve been as effective as they have on their own patch.

Today I’m going to oppose them though, and I really don’t remember the last time I trusted an away team at the Gradski. Based on my lack of luck lately, I’m sure I’ll be rueing my call by 19:00 GMT but c’est la vie; the pick makes sense. You see, Slaven started the season really well, playing some terrific attacking football, but at no stage did they look capable of keeping teams out. Big Bosnian striker Krstanovic was bullying defenders, Bacelic-Grgic was tearing teams apart – it was great fun to watch.

However, several injuries later – one of which was to Bacelic-Grgic – and this team has become a lot less impressive. Still not a team you should underestimate, mind you, but other Prva Liga teams have figured them out now. Although they’re still attack-minded and entertaining, they’ve lost a lot of their effectiveness – even Istra 1961 has got the best of them in 2021, which is pretty much the worst team in the division nowadays. As long as you deprive Slaven of their aerial service in the final third, they’re basically sitting ducks – and most teams in 2021 have figured that out. Considering that Sibenik have outsmarted far better teams than Slaven of late, I’d be surprised if they were underprepared for this fixture.

The visitors were the worst team in the Prva Liga earlier in the season; opposing them was very straightforward. Now, though? They’re Croatia’s surprise package, playing with confidence, scoring goals, and seriously upsetting the apple cart. Dinamo Zagreb, Rijeka, Lokomotiva Zagreb – they’ve all failed to beat Sibenik at home in 2021, most of which Sibenik have actually won. They’ve not been smash-and-grab jobs either; they’ve been very shrewd, calculating displays.

I can’t pretend to understand it, mind you. I know they made lots of pre-season signings so the integration process was going to take a while, and I always had in the back of my mind that they’d be better than Istra 1961 in the end, and possibly Varazdin too. The way they’re playing now, though? Wow. Let me put it this way; they’ve made Lokomotiva start to shit themselves at the prospect of being relegated, and bearing in mind that they’re 100% protected by their big brothers Dinamo, that’s quite something to achieve! 

It took a really impressive Gorica display to see them eventually overcome Sibenik last time out too. Gorica can be that good though; it’s just not often that they have to be against a weak team. That in itself speaks volumes for Sibenik, and I can’t believe that this assurance on the ball they’ve developed and this swagger of theirs will simply dissipate after a sole defeat. As long as their main men – Bulat, Ampem, Schildenfeld, Sahiti – start this game, I really don’t think Sibenik will leave the Gradski empty-handed.

At 83/100, it’s a risk I am rather unusually prepared to take.

Verdict: Sibenik to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 83/100.

Eintracht Braunschweig vs Jahn Regensburg

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

Folk are always keen to oppose the bottom teams in the league, and I get it – they’re obviously in that area of the table for a reason. That’s just it, though – there’s always a reason. What might surprise people is that it’s not often that they have the worst team, though. I tend to find that it’s mostly borne out of circumstances than anything else. I mean, outside the drop zone, you’ve got Darmstadt, Sandhausen, Nurnberg, and St. Pauli at the moment. How the hell are they there? They should all be far higher in the table but they’re not because the Bundesliga is a highly competitive, unforgiving division of football.

Earlier in the season, I would say that Braunschweig deserved to be near the bottom of the table. I thought that their pre-season preparations were somewhat arrogant, barely bringing anyone in to help them bridge the gap – and it’s not like they’re strangers that don’t know how hard this division is to play in. I don’t think they’re at fault for Abdulahi failing to show up; that was a risk worth taking. However, expecting another heroic season from Polish midfielder Kobylanski seemed overly ambitious, and they struggled because of it. All teams concede at this level so it was always going to be about goal-scoring, their survival, and they’ve simply not done enough to prepare for it.

However, that was then; the Braunschweig of today has done something about it though. Yes, they’ve impressively gone out and loaned South Korean forward Dong-won, the forgotten man. He’s had loads of injuries over the years so I feel sorry for him because he’s a seriously good attacker on his day, not that his penalty miss last time out would have you thinking otherwise! He’s a very clever player though, and that’s what Braunschweig have lacked. I’m not surprised he’s made the impact that he has, basically – he’s way too good for this level, and if they can get his confidence back to where it was, they’ll not be relegated.

Furthermore, the acquisition of defender Behrendt has worked; they’ve looked better at the back too, especially against Heidenheim, which was a gritty and impressive display in equal measure. See, I know the Braunschweig form guide is rather condemning of late but look at who they’ve played against – Kiel, Bochum, and Hannover? Three of the best goal-scoring teams in the division, all of which expect to be promoted this season? I mean, come on! Let’s be realistic here. I think Braunschweig have given everything in those matches but those targets are beyond them. Jahn Regensburg at home though? That’s not beyond them.

The away team contribute to the above rather helpfully by consistently squandering chances. Even in games they’ve actually won in 2021, I’ve been scratching my head at how they’ve now conceded more. The great irony is that I like this Regensburg squad more than I’ve liked any of theirs for a couple of years now. George carried them last season but he’s not been a regular this season, not with Moritz and Vrenezi upstaging him. At the same time, it could be argued that they shouldn’t have to rely on George anyway; he should be a part of the team, not the team itself.

The Regensburg midfield, I’m fine with. There’s a really healthy balance in there, lots of composure, and good forward passing. No complaints from me at all. In attack though, they annoy me. Only Albers knows how to find the net, for example, and even that only happens some of the time. The rest provide the stereotypical pace and power but none of the finesse, and that leaves Regensburg teetering on the brink in each game they play in because they do not do enough to suppress any opposing team. Subsequently, they’re at the mercy of what their opponents throw at them.

Of late, that’s not mattered because the teams that have faced them have predominantly been rather charitable. A team battling against relegation is not often charitable though, and that’s where Braunschweig are at. They may be unbeaten in five, Regensburg, but other than the DFB Pokal match against Koln, I really haven’t found them to be playing well at all. Now, that doesn’t mean that they’ll lose today; I still think that they have the better squad, and if their midfield shows up, then Braunschweig are in bother. However, I think that they’re playing poorly enough for certain teams to get the best of them, and contrary to what the form guide suggests, Braunschweig have looked very focused lately, which is a combination that makes me lean toward the hosts anyway.

When you then factor in that Regensburg are missing half of their defence today with Elvedi and Nachreiner both out, I think the prospect of backing Braunschweig is that bit more attractive, is it not? Braunschweig cannot afford to let opportunities like this slip through their fingertips any longer. This is a really good time to face Regensburg, and the home team must win; it’s just an average, run-of-the-mill fixture for the visitors though, who have looked a touch complacent in 2021.

Therefore, I’m going to boldly back the relegation battlers with draw no bet cover at 11/10.

Verdict: Eintracht Braunschweig to win with draw no bet at 11/10.