Melbourne City vs Sydney FC
KO: (UK time)
I still have my concerns about Sydney FC but the reality is that they’ve played well lately. Importantly, they’ve finally got Bobo fit, and The Sky Blues are so much more penetrative when they actually have a striker on the pitch. Not just any striker, either, but one that knows the club and the division well, having blitzed it at A-League level before. He’s not the most mobile of forwards, Bobo, but in a team like this, he really doesn’t have to be. All he has to do is either win headers in the box or contribute with one-twos to link-up play, and he does both very well. He should give Sydney FC that additional dimension that will probably see them scrape another title win.
It does terrify me that a team like this isn’t punished more often for their weaknesses though. Without fail, in every single game this season, they’ve become too tired to compete after the seventy minute mark. Teams with fitter, faster players than them tend to run riot at that stage, and only some good defending and poor finishing on the part of their opponents has bailed them out, for the most part. Well, that and the fact that in the preceding seventy minutes, Sydney FC have usually done enough to go a goal or two up anyway. It’s a big weakness to have, though. If they play in the Asian Champions League like this, they’re going to get battered.
I will say this for Sydney FC though – they’ve got some good kids coming through, which is pleasant to witness. Striker Wood has done well, for example. He’s not what I’d call a poacher, but he helps offset the weakness of Sydney FC toward the end of matches because he’s fast and presses well when he comes on, meaning Sydney FC generally take less pressure than usual. His movement and finishing are both fairly good for his age though. Nieuwenhof has a very strong shot on him from range, and even left-back King has tightened up his game defensively, although as an offensive player, he’s still the weak link in this squad. They all give Sydney FC options though, which is handy.
For me, Sydney FC are lacking pressers in midfield and speed in the middle of their back four, as well as any kind of suitable deputy for Grant at right-back. The rest of the squad is very strong though. They keep the ball really well, and have now honed their ability to pass their way around teams, actually putting in two good displays in a row. I know they only drew 0-0 with Roar at weekend but for me, that’s the hardest game for them at this level and although they gave some chances away, they were generally very impressive, and that display would have seen them beat most other A-League teams – but Roar are very switched-on defensively when they want to be. If they play as well as that again today, they’ll win.
Melbourne City used to be good at defending but that’s not quite the same any longer. Their change of goalkeeper has not gone terribly well, for example. Some young goalkeepers in the A-League have impressed me this season – but Glover is not one of them. He’s too weak at coming for crosses, and seems to struggle to command his area. Truth be told though, he’s the least of their problems as City really, really struggle to control matches now. They’re only able to if up against a team that doesn’t press them, which seldom happens in the A-League. I mean, they’ve not been dreadful lately but have still lost three games on the spin because they’re incapable of dealing with such, and they won’t be aided today with battling midfielder O’Neill injured.
They’ve recently brought in Portuguese defender Nuno Reis to help them in playing out from the back, which is another big problem they’ve had. MacLaren is a brilliant striker but he’s not going to win much in the air so it’s got to be played along the floor. Well, other teams figured that out, and have been cutting City’s supply off at the source, which they have no insurance policy for dealing with. Reis may help them more there but for me, it’s having a lack of central midfielders that are prepared to turn on the ball that is the big problem there.
Subsequently, even though I know how good their front three can be, I don’t worry about them. MacLaren’s pace and finishing, Noone’s technique, Luna’s movement, and even Nabbout’s direct running – none of it bothers me because the team is ill-equipped to support them. Subsequently, they’re not scoring enough goals, and they’re far too easy to interrupt, harass, and score goals against. I daresay the Australian media will be quick to point to inexperienced boss Kisnorbo but for me, this project has been a disaster from the start because they’ve not actually had any soul or pride in this squad since Mooy, Fornaroli, and Novillo were tearing it up all of those years ago. They’re just too predictable, City.
One final point to consider is that this is City’s first game in two weeks or so. Western Sydney Wanderers had that problem at weekend, and looked rusty for the entire first-half against Wellington Phoenix’s “B” team. Sydney FC may not be able to outlast them, but they’re capable of being out of sight by the time the seventy minute mark comes around. For me, draw no bet odds of 26/25 on Sydney FC winning this match are a must, really. City will trouble them in spells, the visitors should be comfortable enough.
Verdict: Sydney FC to win with draw no bet at 26/25.