TFT Issue 3355!

Willem II vs ADO Den Haag

KO: 15:30 (UK time)

Are we still going to sit here, pretending that ADO Den Haag are not a match for Willem II right now? I’m sorry, but there’s no way the home team should be odds-on to win this match, not in a relegation fight. I agree that Willem II have more potential and more consistency than their opponents, but they pissed all over that notion when they axed their manager, Koster, who was one of the best they’ve had in a long time. There were some encouraging displays to begin with, including a very spirited effort in Amsterdam, but they’ve lost 5-0 at a pretty average Feyenoord Rotterdam and 6-0 at home against FC Utrecht last time out. Is it just me that thinks they may live to regret this call?

I can accept Willem II losing two games against two teams that are better than they are. What I can’t accept, however, is their complete lack of interest in those matches – that’s poor. To not even go down fighting goes against everything that the Eredivisie is. If they’ve no fight, then they’re going to find the relegation battle (that they’re very much in) an extremely challenging time. Again, they have some quality in their squad but how much experience do they have of this battle? Do they have the leaders? I’m not sure that they do.

They’re without quite a few players today, Willem II, but none that they should lose sleep over being without as they’ve been rotation players at most this season. There’s really no excuse for this lethargy that they’ve been exuding. I appreciate that it’s quite a young team but that’s what they signed up for; they knew what they were getting when they made this call, Willem II, and what it would mean to sack Koster, so I’m finding it really hard to feel sorry for them. Don’t get me wrong; they’re not going to be in this malaise forever. Indeed, the odds movement alone suggests that most people think they’ll exit it today, but I have a different viewpoint altogether.

Four months ago, yes, I would have agreed. ADO Den Haag were truly woeful then, largely because they had a poor squad, which is me describing it in a very generous way. They’d also been having some ‘fun’ by making strange managerial choices. However, this ADO Den Haag squad today actually impresses me. It’s a bit risky, what they’ve done in their bid to beat the drop, but signing so many formerly good players and hoping to tap into some of it has actually started to work. It’s bitten them in the backside with Janmaat, who is unsurprisingly injured again, but the others have started to look good, and even their former talisman El Khayati lasted a good seventy minutes on his second debut in their recent defeat against Fortuna Sittard.

Don’t get me wrong; ADO Den Haag need to learn how to channel these improved displays into wins, as they’re ultimately what’ll count. However, when it comes to experience, they;’re a lot better off than they were, not to mention quality. El Khayati, Mokhtar, Adekanye, Zuiverloon, Janmaat (when fit), Vejinovic, Fraisl – these are all good signings that improves their squad considerably. It’ll take a little time to integrate some of them, for sure, but the service their creators can now provide big target man Kramer with makes me rate this side far higher than I have in years.

It’s not even all about their newbies, either. After what feels like years on the sidelines, they’ve also got Kishna back fit again, and they’ve still got Goossens to call upon too. On top of that, it’s Ruud Brood that is leading them, whom I have very fond memories of from his time at RKC Waalwijk many moons ago. He hasn’t really settled anywhere since then so his appointment now could also be considered a little wacky, but I do love his attacking football, and the confidence that his players tend to have. To put it bluntly, I recognise what ADO Den Haag are doing in a bid to beat the drop – and I like the potential of it. I certainly like what I’ve seen from them lately far more than what I’ve seen from their hosts.

With that in mind, I’m inclined to back the away team to get a positive result today at generous odds of 27/25.

Verdict: ADO Den Haag to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 27/25.

Atalanta Bergamo vs Real Madrid

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

When it’s come to Europe this season, Atalanta have always been up for it, whether it’s in their customary attacking approach or even when adopting a more unusual defensive approach. They’ve rested star players in anticipation of such matches, and have basically made it abundantly clear that they want to progress as far as they’re able to. 

Beating Real Madrid, the all-time kings of the UEFA Champions League/European Cup, is obviously not an easy task. However, I believe that the Italians are not only able to do so, but that they’ve also picked a good time. I say that partially because Real Madrid are still in the middle of a transition, unable to properly control games, but also because they’re missing a lot of players. For example, both right-backs are out, Militao and Ramos are out, midfield all-rounder Valverde is out, Hazard and Rodrygo are out in attack, and star striker Benzema is also out. Despite the fact that that leaves Kroos, Modric, Mendy, Isco etc. as available players, it’s fair to say that this is not an especially intimidating Real Madrid team. It’s still not one to underestimate, but it looks vulnerable to me – to the right opponent.

I believe Atalanta Bergamo can be that opponent tonight. Real Madrid’s passers are still there but if you press them well enough and hard enough, you’ll prevent them from controlling the game. The home team are still suspect enough in defence to concede here, but their intensity and fitness should be way too much for a Real Madrid team that is seriously lacking in mobility nowadays, completely unused to not dominating matches. A team like Atalanta are both fast and powerful in just about every area of the team, and that’s a threat that Real Madrid simply don’t have to encounter in Spain. Some of their worst displays this season have been in Europe because of the transition they’re in the middle of, and their inability to cope when they’re not controlling a match. I believe we’ll see another example of such in Italy tonight.

Ahead of this match, the home team have won three on the spin to give them some confidence. Continuing life without Gomez has been a bit more challenging for them than I thought it would be but they’re back to doing well again now. They’ve sorted their wing-back situation out, acquiring Maehle to be another option out wide after losing Castagne pre-season. Their central midfield situation looks very strong again, and their attack looks just as dangerous as ever, although I still find myself questioning why Lammers was the target man that they opted to sign. Is he really any different from Cornelius, whom they let go? Arguably inferior, too? 

Anyway, I like where Gasperini’s men are at, and I think that their football style will be too much for Real Madrid to handle here. Liverpool did a good job on them in Italy but had to be very well-organised and very fit to do it. Ajax got very lucky in their game in Italy; they should have conceded five or six by my count. I guess that’s my one fear, really – Atalanta not converting their chances. I’ve seen it in Europe a couple of times this season. Still, at 13/10, it’s a risk worth taking because everything else about the home win in this match simply makes sense so I’ll back the hosts.

Verdict: Atalanta Bergamo to win at 13/10.