TFT Issue 3356!

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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Young Boys Bern

KO: (UK time)

Last week’s defeat in Switzerland was one of many examples of my lack of luck. It took the best display from a Swiss team in Europe for many years and a poor Leverkusen first-half to put the Swiss champions into a really commanding position. Fortunately, parity was restored in the second-half and the Germans did not struggle to create chance after chance, scoring three of them. That was what I expected to see from the start but no such luck. 

I feel strangely confident in stating that Young Boys Bern can’t be that lucky again tonight though. They’re still without their only good striker, Nsame, and they’re still without lanky, powerful Camara at the back too, which makes Young Boys Bern’s two most vulnerable areas even more suspect. I won’t deny that they’re capable of playing some beautiful football in midfield, the Swiss champions, but it seldom actually gets them anywhere nowadays. I’ll admit that it’s nice to finally see Elia following in the footsteps of Assale by being a very late bloomer, and it’s nice to see Siebatcheu remembering what it’s like to be a decent player, and so on. I still maintain that it’s masking the true problem, though – Seoane.

See, it’s easy to get carried away with Young Boys Bern because of how commanding their Super League lead is right now. It’s really misleading, though. It’s a competitive Super League but only in the sense that most teams in it are of a very similar level. Young Boys Bern are the best team in it by default, not by virtue of anything that Seoane has done. With the way he seems intent on regressing this club, I would not be surprised to see Young Boys Bern drop down another level quality-wise, and for the Super League title race to become a free-for-all with no real favourites. That’s the way Swiss football is going, and that’s why I can’t back Young Boys Bern much nowadays; they just don’t play well enough, irrespective of their results.

I mean, I’ve no problem being critical of Leverkusen, who are generally overrated, especially by the bookies. They’ve got players out tonight, and they’re a very predictable team in terms of what you can expect from them. Teams that know how to sit back and defend properly will cause the German team no end of problems, for example, but teams that play open football (ala Young Boys Bern) are cannon fodder for them. They have some stupid moments, Leverkusen, and continually fielding midfielders in defence plays a substantial role in that, but they’re also very good at attacking open spaces.

Leverkusen are fit, athletic, and always want to get men forward. Defending against them is problematic for that reason. Then you’ve got the problem of dealing with their counters when they do take the lead against you. Honestly, defending deep is the only way to irk Leverkusen, and Young Boys Bern are not only incapable of doing so, but they won’t even attempt to here, especially not without Camara. Therefore, as annoying as Leverkusen can be when getting forward sometimes, I have to believe that they’re going to have this game precisely how they like it.

For me, they’re not only a few levels above their Swiss opponents, but they’re also fitter, and far better prepared to defend one-on-ones. Young Boys Bern can’t even figure out how to deal with long balls over the top, and they’ve not had a good goalkeeper in years now. The right team can rip Young Boys Bern apart, and for me, that team could and should be Leverkusen tonight. There aren’t any acceptable excuses for them to failing to do so.

Therefore, I’m on Leverkusen with a -1 Asian Handicap at 93/100.

Verdict: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 93/100.

Additional games

Club Brugge vs Dynamo Kyiv

KO: (UK time)

A 1-1 draw in the reversal of this fixture leaves the tie in a more interesting state as Club Brugge have an away goal to sit on, meaning that the Ukrainian heavyweights need to come out and play more here. That’s what Lucescu’s teams prefer to do anyway but I don’t feel that same sense of comfort and trust in this team as I did with his Shakhtar Donetsk side, and that’s because he’s simply not been there as long.

Dynamo Kyiv are putting into place some very important and impressive building blocks after years of malaise, on and off the pitch. They’ve always had a very strong academy so the kids they’ve got coming through are very helpful in addition to their more experienced players. He may not be popular in this part of Ukraine, Lucescu, but he sure does know what he’s doing. However, he’s not yet had enough time to make this team brilliant, and that makes Dynamo Kyiv susceptible against the right opponents.

What I still find with the Ukrainians is that they’re too easy to break down (for teams that are capable of doing the unpredictable more often than not), and they’re not all that comfortable with sending enough men forward. Both will improve in due course, but let’s just say that being forced into playing in such a way against an experienced, fast, and determined Club Brugge side is likely to have some bad repercussions. Their hosts may be missing defenders for this encounter, but it’s Dynamo Kyiv that are going to struggle here. They’re going to need to play on the front foot, and for their attackers to do enough at their end to send them through. That might happen, but I wouldn’t put money on it because pushing forward against this team generally leads to problems, and Club Brugge are very good at countering such teams.

If Club Brugge had more defenders fit, I would probably back them to win tonight. The Belgian champions have a habit of giving chances away as a byproduct of their naturally attacking style of play. Sometimes they concede those chances, and sometimes they don’t; it doesn’t tend to affect Club Brugge themselves as they know they’ve got the attacking power to outscore opposing teams anyway. In Europe it’s different though, which is why they tend to struggle. Ironically, I tend to find that they perform better in Europe than they do domestically but also record less favourable results, usually leaving games wondering how they’ve not scored four but acknowledging that they’ve deserved to concede four too. The two UEFA Champions League group stage games against Bv09 Borussia Dortmund were pristine examples of such with the Belgians doing more than enough to win both – but the scoreboard showed a heavy defeat in each encounter!

That’s the problem with Club Brugge at this level. I really can’t think of a time they’ve actually been outplayed in a European game over the past couple of years – but I can think of plenty of occasions where they’ve been on the receiving end of one-sided scorelines through a lack of consistency at both ends. That’s what makes it so hard to know whether to back them or not. However, the one thing you’re guaranteed with this team is entertainment, and that tends to walk hand-in-hand with goals. They’re not going to sit on their away goal tonight, Club Brugge, because it’s not their way, and because they’re not good enough to do it. No, they’re going to try and win on the night to make things absolutely certain, and that should make the match an interesting and eventful one.

I’m not going to pick a winner here for reasons already mentioned. Backing both teams to score at 19/20 is very appealing though.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 19/20.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

UEFA Europa League:

Arsenal – Holding and Partey are doubts. Game played in Athens, Greece.
SL Benfica – Almeida and Jardel are absent.
Rangers – Katic and Tavernier are absent.
Antwerp – Batubinsika, Butez, Coopman, de Sart, Haroun, and Seck are absent.
Villarreal – Coquelin and Iborra are absent.
Salzburg – Bernardo is absent. Wober is a doubt.
TSG Hoffenheim – Akpoguma, Bicakcic, Gacinovic, Geiger, Hubner, Nordtveit, Posch, Skov, and Stafylidis are absent.
Molde FK – Haraldseid, Gregersen, and Brynhildsen are absent.
SSC Napoli – Demme, Lozano, Hysaj, Manolas, Petagna, Ospina, Mertens, and Ghoulam are absent.
Granada – Herrera, Milla, Quini, Soldado, Soro, Suarez, and Vallejo are absent. Lozano and Sanchez are doubts.
Shakhtar Donetsk – Dentinho, Ismaily, and Malyshev are absent.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Karzev, Y. Cohen, and Nikolic are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam Mazraoui and Onana are absent. Giovanni is a doubt.
Lille OSC – Yilmaz is absent.
Club Brugge Denswil, Lang, Mitrovic, Rits, and Vanaken are absent.
Dynamo Kyiv – Baluta and Burda are absent. Kostevych is a doubt.
Manchester United – Jones and Pogba are absent. Van de Beek, Cavani, and McTominay are doubts.
Real Sociedad – Ayesa, Elustondo, Fernandez, Le Normand, Moya, Sangalli, Sola, and Zaldua are absent.
AC Milan – Hauge, Bennacer, and Mandzukic are absent.
Red Star Belgrade – Katai, Milunoviv, Nikolic, and Rodic are absent. Erakovic is a doubt.
Leicester City – Iheanacho, Fofana, Justin, Morgan, Perez, and Praet are absent. Maddison is a doubt.
Slavia Prague – Sevcik, Hovorka, Tecl are absent. Holes is a doubt.
AS Roma – Santon, Milanese, Ibanez, Zaniolo, Smalling, Kumbulla, Calafiori, and Pastore are absent.
Sporting Braga – Carmo, Esgaio, Fonte, and Moura are absent.
Dinamo Zagreb Moharrami is absent.
FK Krasnodar – Oyongo, Ramirez, Petrov, Safonov, Stotsky, and Utkin are absent.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Amiri, Arias, Baumgartlinger, Bellarabi, L. Bender, Paulinho, and Hradecky are absent.
Young Boys Bern – Camara, Petignat, Martins-Pereira, Sierro, and Nsame are absent.
PSV Eindhoven Gakpo, Ledezma, Madueke, Romero, and Sangare are absent. Boscagli is a doubt.
Olympiakos Piraeus – Papadopoulos and Vrousai are absent. 

Brazilian Serie A:

Sao Paulo – Liziero, Paulinho, Reinaldo, and Walce are absent.
Flamengo – Alves and Maia are absent.
Ceara – No absentees.
Botafogo – Barros, Cavalieri, Fernandez, Forster, and Morais are absent.
Atletico Mineiro – No absentees.
Palmeiras – Menino and Veron are absent.
Bahia – Fessin, Mateus, Pedro, and Ramirez are absent.
Santos – Laercio, Raniel, Sanchez, Kaio Jorge, and Jobson are absent.
Internacional – Boschilia, Guerrero, Moledo, and Rodinei are absent.
Corinthians – Avelar, Leo Santos, Mantuan, and Ruan are absent.
RB Bragantino – Alerrandro, Helio Junio, and Ortiz are absent.
Gremio – Geromel and Leo Gomes are absent.
Athletico Paranaense – Azevedo, Canesin, Erick, Gonzalez, and Richard are absent.
Sport Recife – Barcia is absent.
Atletico Goianiense – Natanael is a doubt.
Coritiba – Cerutti, Galdezani, Mailton, Moreira Milouski, and Sales are absent.
Fluminense – Ferraz, Ganso, and Nino are absent.
Fortaleza – No absentees.
Vasco da Gama – Lopes, Miranda, Paiva, and Werley are absent. Benitez is a doubt.
Goias – No absentees.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

UEFA Europa League:

Arsenal vs SL Benfica (5) 1-1
Rangers vs Antwerp (6) 2-1
Villarreal vs Salzburg (6) over 2.5 goals
TSG Hoffenheim vs Molde FK (6) over 2.5 goals
SSC Napoli vs Granada (5) 1-0
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv (7) 2-0
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Lille OSC (5) 1-1
Club Brugge vs Dynamo Kyiv (5) 1-1
Manchester United vs Real Sociedad (6) 2-1
AC Milan vs Red Star Belgrade (6) 2-0
Leicester City vs Slavia Prague (6) 1-0
AS Roma vs Sporting Braga (6) 2-0
Dinamo Zagreb vs FK Krasnodar (5) 2-2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Young Boys Bern (7) over 2.5 goals
PSV Eindhoven vs Olympiakos Piraeus (5) 2-2

Brazilian Serie A:

Sao Paulo vs Flamengo (5) 1-1
Ceara vs Botafogo (5) 1-0
Atletico Mineiro vs Palmeiras (6) 1-1
Bahia vs Santos (5) 2-1
Internacional vs Corinthians (6) 2-1
RB Bragantino vs Gremio (5) 1-2
Athletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife (5) 1-1
Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba (6) 2-1
Fluminense vs Fortaleza (6) 2-0
Vasco da Gama vs Goias (5) 2-1

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