TFT Issue 3357!

Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar 

KO: 10:05 (UK time)

This game is one of those weird ones where it really could go either way in terms of it being high-scoring or utterly barren. Both of these teams proved last season that they know how to defend, and should one of them choose to do so, I think this pick is in trouble.

However, the signs from both camps this season has been anything but defensive. Perth Glory have started fielding two men up top instead of one, and with that twosome being Keogh and Fornaroli, it’s not surprising that they’ve scored lots of goals. Spanish wizard Castro is as brilliant as ever, and rumour has it that even Ikonomidis is only a few weeks away from being fit now, and that’s a frightening attack at A-League level. I like what they’ve shown, basically, and they’re completely the opposite of what they were under Popovic last season.

Interestingly, Brisbane Roar are playing more offensively too. I still think that they have a terrific capacity to irk their opponents, but their speciality this season has been pressing high up the pitch, and using their pace to cause problems. I’m still not happy about the state of their finishing, especially with McDonald injured for this one, but they create so many chances that they end up scoring quite a number. That uncomfortable attack against an unfamiliar defence should only produce joy for Brisbane Roar.

Subsequently, I’m left feeling like we’re going to see a very open, end-to-end, intense affair. Perth Glory’s rust is likely to take its toll, and I am a bit puzzled by Aldred’s inclusion for the visitors here, as he was carrying what looked like a hamstring problem for the second-half against Sydney FC and should not be able to play here. However, he’s been named in the squad, so we’ll have to wait and see how that pans out. As Roar’s best defender, it would be a serious boost for us were he to not feature. Even if he does though, I can only envision these two teams causing one another problems.

Glory have the better finishers here; there’s no escaping that. I’d probably say that they’ve got the best finishers in the A-League, actually. However, their defence still looks suspect to me, and it will until they have a consistent run of games playing alongside one another, which keeps getting interrupted with weird fixture changes from the FFA. I can see them struggling to deal with a very intense, fast Roar attack here. Roar are uncomfortable to play against at all times, and even if their finishing is frustrating, I believe they’ll do enough to stay in this game, and I respect them far more than their hosts when it comes to tactics this season.

It’ll be an interesting affair, this one. I can’t split the two teams right now. Backing over 3 goals at 6/5 appeals to me though.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 6/5.

SC Kriens vs Neuchatel Xamax 

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

It’s three games unbeaten for Kriens now, and who is surprised? Not me. They’re only going to improve whenever Sessolo exits quarantine too. What we’re seeing is Kriens getting back to their best, basically. Even at their best, they’re still not an especially good team – it’s important to keep that in mind. However, what they morph into is a very solid unit that gives nothing away, and will be very awkward to suppress.

You can look at different reasons for it if you want to, but I see a Kriens team that has now kept three clean sheets in a row – and that’s with new signing Kryeziu having barely kicked a ball yet. Keeping a clean sheet against Chiasso may not be anything to write home about, but Aarau and Winterthur? Those two teams are comfortably better than most at Challenge League level when it comes to creating chances and finding the net. Kriens did a very good job on both of them though, and with sharper play in the final third, they’d have won both.

That’s why the likes of Luan and Sessolo have been signed, though, to give Kriens what they lack up front now Abubakar has left. The presence of either – or both – of them will only encourage Yesilcayir, Mulaj etc. to show how good they can be with intelligent movement ahead of them. I mean, Abubakar was great so don’t get me wrong here, but Sessolo and Luan bring a naturally swift dynamic to the equation which Kriens sometimes need in order to keep teams from getting at them too much. I’ve been really impressed with Kriens lately, in short, and I suspect I’ll be impressed with them again tonight because they look very organised, and smarter than their opponents too.

Neuchatel Xamax are the bigger club with some good players on their books but they’ve been poor for most of this season. That doesn’t surprise me though, not after what they did pre-season. The only surprise for me was that they started their campaign as well as they did when all logic pointed to them failing miserably. Things have gone from bad to worse for them over the past few months though, with even their owner exiting the club. It seems they’re set for yet another unpleasant finale, Neuchatel Xamax, whether it’s this season or the next, just like they did in the past. 

It’s sad to see the class act that is Nuzzolo being part of this squad though. Someone that has given as much as he has for as long as he has does not deserve to be amongst the smouldering wreckage of what was once a good club. Even he is beginning to look his age too. A lot of their gambles this season haven’t paid off e.g. Parapar from Stade Lausanne-Ouchy has struggled to find any rhythm, Basha has struggled to stay fit, and both Corbaz and Teixeira struggling to make an impact. Hell, even their recent signings, Frick and Koura, have done nothing in attack with the Liechtenstein international injured, and Koura still yet to find a goal after four matches.

I suspect things are going to get worse for them tonight too. No direction, a change of manager (Binotto) last month that hasn’t gone swimmingly, and now absentees too. Young defender Ouattara has been something of a regular this season, for example – but he’s out tonight, as are numerous others, some of which are rotation players and some of which would be regulars. On paper, I would still say that Neuchatel Xamax are the stronger of these two teams but on the pitch, I think Kriens look too good for them right now, and at the very least too smart for them.

Therefore, it’s Kriens with draw no bet at 9/10 for me.

Verdict: SC Kriens to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

PEC Zwolle vs SC Heerenveen

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

I was tempted to back Heerenveen here but then I thought, “Why do that? They’re utterly insane at the back!” so I didn’t. I do like this Heerenveen attack, and I think they’ve got a better chance of winning this game than the odds suggest. However, I just don’t trust the northerners, I’m afraid. The Dutch Eredivisie is known for high-scoring games anyway, but I’ve seldom seen a team like Heerenveen that seemingly wants to concede goals on a regular basis. Sometimes they tighten up in home games for reasons unbeknown to me; they just look more focused when I watch them play at the Abe Lenstra. On the road though, it’s a coin toss as to whether they win, draw, or lose.

I stand by what I said above, though – they’ve got a better chance to win this one than the odds suggest. Why? Well, Zwolle are without half of their defence for this game, and have hardly been setting the Netherlands alight in recent weeks. They’ve lost none of their energy, nor attacking impetus, but have seemingly lost their confidence when it comes to actually winning matches. They’re not the kind of team that can easily contain opponens, Zwolle, so it’s all about goal-scoring for them. Lately though, they’ve just seemed more reactive than proactive, and it’s led to some games ending in draws that they should really have won. 

I may doubt Heerenveen’s capacity to defend, but I don’t doubt their attacking capacity right now. They’ve looked really sleek in the final third since they loaned Swedish wonderkid Nygren from Racing Genk. Putting him on the opposite side to van Bergen has allowed them to revert to their favoured trident approach in attack with big Henk Veerman in the middle, and Heerenveen’s best football over the years has always been played in that formation. Now that they’ve unearthed promising youngster Hajal to unlock defences, as well as bringing classy veteran de Jong back to the Eredivisie, I have even less reason to doubt this team’s attack. I wouldn’t hesitate in backing them here if they could defend, honestly – but they can’t, so I don’t trust them.

Even with half of their defence out, Zwolle remain a danger at the other end. Even without van Duinen up front, they still have some very dangerous threats. I’m sorry to say that Vitesse Arnhem’s purported wonderkid Buitink is not one of them, having fallen by the wayside somewhat, but veteran Iranian attacker Ghoochannejhad and Misidjan have kept them very dangerous. The latter doesn’t surprise me; he’s too good for this level. All that surprises me about him is how he limped through life in Germany, where he had ample opportunities to prove himself, feigning injury, before returning to The Netherlands only to play regularly and remind everybody of how good he is. It’s a very bizarre story. Still, having two such talented match-winners against a shocking Heerenveen defence should produce Zwolle goals here. 

Zwolle’s defence is a mess for this one though, just like Heerenveen’s, and given the attacking nature of both teams, backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 makes sense to me. 

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt 

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

As always, I love Bremen, and I want them to survive the relegation battle that they’re absolutely in. However, whenever I see a tactically astute team coming up against them, I cringe – because I know what’s likely to occur. Bremen play off the cuff, relying on their individual brilliance and work ethic to get themselves through games, as well as the fact that everybody in this team of theirs was selected through their comfort in possession of the ball. However, a team that can line up their defence properly will not be troubled by this team, and that’s precisely the case tonight.

I really do fear for Bremen this season. They rode their luck in the play-offs against Heidenheim last time, and this season has not been an improvement. Mentally, I don’t doubt them at all; every player at this club would die for the team. I just doubt their effectiveness. They’re far too reliant on Rashica, and although the Kosovan creator is finally back from injury, they still look thin on the ground when it comes to making things happen. I know that Bittencourt, Eggestein, and Mohwald have their moments, and I appreciate that Fullkrug is finally back for injury up front, but these are not long-term solutions. Even their amazing wing-backs, Gebre Selassie and Augustinsson, are not able to hurt teams as much this season because the passing from Bremen isn’t slick enough nor accurate enough in the final third – and the Swede is actually out tonight anyway, for whom there is no replacement.

Teams that don’t want to match Bremen’s work-rate, or don’t bother to pay attention to a big target man, will struggle with Bremen. However, teams that know how to defend against such, and how to incisively break, will hurt Bremen. A more stubborn, confident, tenacious team than Bremen you simply won’t find in Germany. However, you also won’t find a more predictable outfit. They’re no capacity to shake things up whatsoever right now, and even struggle to deal with situations where teams won’t let them play out from the back. I can’t see Frankfurt messing up an opportunity like that tonight.

For my money, too many people trust Frankfurt in games that they really shouldn’t, which is when they play as favourites. You see, they’re the perfect ‘mirror’ team, as I call it. What I mean by that is that they’re very good at mirroring their opponents’ tactics due to their squad’s flexibility, and making it count better. They’re an extremely intelligent team, led by an extremely intelligent manager. However, they’re not at all well equipped to play on the front foot as the team expected to break opponents down. They seldom create clear-cut opportunities playing that way.

However, playing as a team that is expected to be put under pressure, one that is expected to counter threats and break with regularity – that suits them. I wouldn’t even say that Frankfurt are as fast on the break as they used to be though, which is ironic. I know Kostic can motor, and Jovic is no slouch either, but this is simply a team with great understanding and excellent passers. Subsequently, their breaks tend to be that bit sharper than most, and there’s no shortage of good finishers in this squad. That’s when they’re at their best, Frankfurt, and I believe they’ll prove it in Bremen tonight.

I watched this exact fixture last season; it was Frankfurt controlling it, waiting for opportunities to come – which they did. They scored one, and then Ilsanker came off the bench to bolster their control of the match only to score two goals from set pieces. Frankfurt can hurt teams via multiple methods, you see – Bremen cannot, which is why they rarely beat Frankfurt nowadays. I just have this feeling of inevitability about this fixture in Germany, really – Frankfurt should not only boss it without being hurt much, but be able to score a couple of times along the way.

I’m not so interested in their impressive form guide, although I do fear that it’d be asking a lot of Frankfurt to win six games on the spin. Still, all logic points to the away win, especially with Augustinsson out, so I’m on the away win at 83/100.

Verdict: Eintracht Frankfurt to win at 83/100.