TFT Issue 3358!

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Adelaide United 

KO: 06:05 (UK time)

I was tempted by the home win here but the bookies were all over it, I’m afraid. Is it worth handicapping Western Sydney? Not for my money; it’s seldom worth it at this level. Besides, I was really disappointed with how Western Sydney did in the first-half against half of Phoenix’s “B” team last time out, and on top of that, I’m extremely keen to not underestimate Adelaide United purely because of some sloppy displays because I know how good the visitors can be.

I’m not making any promises here, but with Craig Goodwin not only back at home in the city of churches, but now able to play too, I expect to see Adelaide United improve. They don’t have a bad squad anyway; I quite like what they have. It’s just that they’re a bit young and need an experienced head or two sometimes, which hasn’t always been possible with Lopez’s injuries and Halloran’s surprisingly inconsistent form. Goodwin adds a lot of quality to the left-hand side; he’s a natural match-winner, and is capable of scoring from most situations. He’s done it before for Adelaide United, and he can do it again. If he can serve as the catalyst that the youngsters have sometimes missed away from home, Adelaide United could become rather good, rather fast.

That’s why I don’t want to handicap the home team here; their opponents are capable of springing surprises, and even McGowan’s return from injury hasn’t sorted out this defence. The two goals they conceded against Phoenix were both extremely cringe-worthy, all things considered, and it’s not the first time I’ve seen Western Sydney make a mess of things in defence this season, although Mourdoukoutas is usually the one responsible and he’s injured at the moment. For me, Western Sydney just don’t look comfortable with three centre-backs instead of two. Their positioning is a bit of a mess as a result, and that allows teams to get at them, and score against them.

Western Sydney have sorted all of their attacking issues out though. Pleasingly, they’ve found a replacement for Mitch Duke in…well, Mitch Duke, who has come back, reportedly delighted to be playing up front again rather than on the wing. He’s a good target man, and should be a valuable asset to them, just as he was before. Cox may be a cleverer player, but Duke tends to be in the right place at the right time more often, and that leads to him scoring more goals. Robinson has ensured that Cox and/or Duke will be surrounded by a lot of speed, and intelligent creators. In other words, it’s not hard for Western Sydney to find themselves creating chances nor scoring goals. Doing enough to win games on a consistent basis continues to evade them though, interestingly enough.

I won’t deny that I still think the home team will win this one. I mean, Strain is still out, meaning ageing Marrone has to step in to replace him. Danish centre-back Jakobsen, their defensive organiser, is injured. Lopez is not yet up-to-speed in his new team. That, fused with a new, young goalkeeper in Delianov (who has impressed me more than any other young goalkeeper in the A-League this season) means it’s really not hard to unsettle Adelaide United at the back, as multiple teams have proved in these past few weeks. Western Sydney should not struggle there.

That attack of Adelaide United’s, though – I can’t wait for it to blossom, honestly. Dukuly has gone a bit quiet, and so has Mohammed Toure, but both are such talents that it won’t be long before they’re back to torment A-League defenders. Rapid winger Al Hassan Toure is back from injury now to help out, and with Goodwin back in the equation, suddenly Adelaide United look even more dangerous. With Mauk’s late runs into the box and composed finishing, and Halloran’s usually impressive vision and creativity, not to mention the fact that they’ve finally got a good target man on their books in Juric, I really can’t doubt Adelaide United when it comes to scoring goals. They just need to learn how to control games better, and how to deal with pressure better because that’s literally all that has caused them problems this season.

So, yeah – a slight nod in Western Sydney’s direction, but nothing more than that as the bookies are all over it. I like the prospect of this one containing goals though. I can’t envision either side controlling this game well enough, nor defending solidly enough to keep the other out. For me, backing over 3 goals at 111/100 makes sense here.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 111/100.

Antalyaspor vs Istanbul BB

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

It’s been a good few months since I last trusted Antalyaspor to do anything. Despite having a very good squad and a relatively good start to their Super Lig campaign, today’s hosts had a very dark period in which their confidence completely disappeared, and teams found it very easy to beat them. That led to a new manager coming in, namely Yanal, and although it took him six or seven weeks to whip the team into shape, he managed it.

Now, what’s slipped under the radar is that Antalyaspor are actually unbeaten in ten Super Lig games. Presumably folk are overlooking it because they’re not winning enough but they’re certainly outsmarting teams, and that should seriously worry Istanbul BB today. Why? Well, the visitors are led by Aykut Kocaman, who has a truly dreadful managerial record against Yanal. Yanal has only lost four out of twenty-four meetings with Aykut Kocaman, and has recorded more wins against him than any other Super Lig manager, including immortal Fatih Terim! He knows how to beat Kocaman’s teams, and with Istanbul BB far from confident right now, it’s hard for me to consider that Istanbul BB have a realistic chance of getting something today.

I can’t deny that the reigning champions have the better squad but with no sign of proof on the pitch, it’s hard to read too much into that. Besides, Istanbul BB the visitors are without a lot of players for this game. Rafael, Mahmut, Aleksic, Visca, Chadli, Bolingoli, Caicara, Ali are absent whilst Turuc, Giuliano, and Junior are doubts – and nobody is going to play through the pain barrier for this soulless club, not with so many mercenaries about. Essentially, Istanbul BB are without three defenders, and most of their creators, if not all of them. They still have the power of Ba and Crivelli, as well as the speed of Fernandes, but unless they go long, they’re not going to hurt Antalyaspor.

With Istanbul BB barely remembering what a clean sheet is, let alone how to outsmart an opposing team, I can’t see why they’ve been given a fair shot at winning in Antalya today. I appreciate that they’ve got far more potential to boast but without any kind of reality to back that up, what does that really change? The reality here is that Turkish teams are relishing facing Istanbul BB because they’re not working hard enough, and they’re nowhere near effective enough. I don’t see why Antalyaspor would feel any different.

The home team aren’t winning enough, as I said above, but they’re certainly not losing games – nor are they looking like they’ll lose. They’ve remembered how to control games properly again, and although I wouldn’t call any Turkish team ‘good’ at defending, Antalyaspor are certainly one of the smarter Super Lig teams when they want to be. They’re in a very solid place right now, Antalyaspor, and they’ve got more match-winners than their form would have you believe. They just need a bit of luck, and with so many folks out for the visitors, I’d like to think that luck would come today.

It shouldn’t take more than a bit of magic from Podolski, Sam, or Fredy.to decide this one in Antalyaspor’s favour, and I don’t see that as asking a lot. It’s a good time to oppose Istanbul BB, and a good time to back Antalyaspor, especially with the managerial head-to-head in mind. For me, 83/100 on Antalyaspor draw no bet is a risk worth taking.

Verdict: Antalyaspor to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

VfB Stuttgart vs Schalke 04

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

I’ve been a relative advocate of Schalke 04 in 2021. I think that, despite their bizarre choice of manager, they’ve done some good things. The trouble is that it’s been too little, too late. Now they’ve got injury problems too, and the little confidence that had been generated via various factors back in January has all but entirely ebbed away now. It’s sad, really.

I can’t pretend that Schalke 04 don’t deserve it, though. They’ve got very little right over the past three years, and relegation has always been on the cards for teams like this. Even the emergence of young American striker Hoppe has not been able to catapult them into quite enough positive results, and rumour has it that he’s Juventus-bound in the summer. For what it’s worth, I think that adding full-backs Kolasinac and William has livened up their attacking capabilities as it’s afforded them some width that simply wasn’t there beforehand. I think Raman has looked a bit more helpful, and Serdar has gotten back to his best too. It’s not enough though, really, especially not after replacing Kabak with Mustafi.

I thought they had the perfect opportunity to bounce back last weekend by taking on their most hated rivals, Bv09 Borussia Dortmund. Players are always more motivated for derbies, after all, and this is far from an overly intimidating Dortmund team with two exceptions. Schalke 04 went down without so much as a whimper though, and that game has cost them today too, as they’re now without quite a number of players. Schalke 04’s physio room is never empty anyway, but it’s more jam-packed now than it has been for a while.

Instead of the usual suspects of Paciencia, Ronnow, Sane, Uth, and Skrzybski, they’re now without Fahrmann and Nastasic for sure, as well as potentially being without Bentaleb, Huntelaar, Mustafi, Hoppe, Kolasinac, and William. Their absentees alone are too much for a limited squad with zero depth; if they’re missing even 50% of their doubtful players too, they’re in for a mauling today. As always, check the line-up beforehand but I think Schalke 04 are going to find the final nail in their coffin lid in Stuttgart today with so many players out, and confidence all but gone.

Stuttgart have problems of their own, but absolutely nothing compared to that of their opponents. Argentinian forward Gonzalez has impressed in the Bundesliga this season, as has young French winger Coulibaly; the former is out today, and the latter may join him on the sidelines. Their injury problems of a few weeks back are all but gone now though, with mainstays like Didavi and Castro very much able to play in this game. With towering Kalajdzic and rapid Wamangituka, their main goal-scorers, both available here, Gonzalez’s absence doesn’t greatly concern me, even if I recognise the contribution he makes.

There’s been a really healthy balance in Matarazzo’s squad this season, which I’ve really enjoyed seeing. They’ve both attacked and defended well, all things considered, and the young American boss has really gotten the best out of his boys. I don’t think it’d be misleading to describe them as the revelation of the Bundesliga this season for all that they’ve done, and the consistency they’ve played with. They’ve looked very intelligent and very effective, Stuttgart, and even as the long season has gone on, they still look good, albeit a shade more tired.

They’ve shown no signs of complacency either, Stuttgart, and I love that. They’ve remained grounded through what has been a truly excellent campaign for them, remembering to continually apply the work-rate that got them to where they are in the table right now. They don’t really have a weakness, Stuttgart. This is a very uncomfortable team to have to face, never mind overcome. There are a number of teams competing at this level that are better than they are so their results will never quite illustrate just how above and beyond they’ve been this season. However, for me, they’ve been outstanding, and this kind of team should not struggle to overcome injury-ravaged Schalke 04 today.

Therefore, I’m on the hosts to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 81/100.

Verdict: VfB Stuttgart to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 81/100.

Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Petah Tikva

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

Bnei Yehuda as underdogs again, huh? Well, if the bookies are game, then so am I!

Again, Abukasis’ return to the club makes them into a solid mid-table team that could, luck permitting, break into the top six before being beaten in most games when the Ligat Ha’al splits in two. The league table may portray them to be crap, but that’s purely based on who they were earlier in the season, not who they are now. Two months ago, I’d have backed most teams against them. In fact, I’m pretty sure that I did! Now, though? It’ll take a lot to convince me to oppose them.

Since his return, (barring a Covid-19 influenced home defeat against Hapoel Haifa) Bnei Yehuda have picked up a handy draw against Hapoel Tel-Aviv following a resilient display. Their never-say-die attitude in the 3-3 State Cup draw against Hapoel Haifa was noteworthy, and they won against Ironi Kiryat Shmona as underdogs last time out too. Once more, streetwise Abukasis is turning this team into one that is very complicated to play against without them being especially good at anything. Forget the league table; Bnei Yehuda are a side that will not lose many matches between now and the end of the season.

They’ve got a solid enough squad, Bnei Yehuda, and they’re playing with more confidence. Again, they’re not especially good individually, but Abukasis helps them attain an extra level collectively, which is why I like them. I do want Serbian playmaker Ljujic to pass a late fitness test because he’s the best game-changer they’ve got. Still, I have faith in them doing enough to overcome Maccabi Petah Tikva today, whom they’re certainly no worse than, so quite where the bookies have got these odds from, I don’t know.

Unsurprisingly, Maccabi Petah Tikva’s outstanding start to the season has come to a crashing halt in 2021 because, as mentioned above, they’re simply not that good. They were very fun at the beginning of the Ligat Ha’al, playing with tremendous energy, some relatively unknown footballers, and they looked fitter than most. None of those are long-lasting characteristics though, so this relative demise, if you will, cannot be considered a surprise. I mean, look at their attack. Youngster Abada has been their best goal-scorer but he’s by no means the finished article. Everything else about their attack relies upon the physical attributes of Baribo, Arroyo, and Lupeta. In the right circumstances, that can be very effective, but their predominant lack of quality has led to low quality finishing, unsurprisingly.

Maccabi Petah Tikva are actually without a win in the Ligat Ha’al in February, losing three from three. They’ve only had one particularly challenging game during that run too. It’s been the same story in each game, too – industrious, challenging, ineffectual in the final third, and not good enough defensively to contain teams for ninety minutes. They don’t get battered, Maccabi Petah Tikva, but each goal they concede tends to be rather decisive because of their lack of quality in the final third. They’re just looking a bit too predictable at the moment. I certainly wouldn’t call them a bad team, but they’re lacking too much in front of goal to be taken seriously right now.

Essentially, unless Maccabi Petah Tikva strike lucky today, they’re not going to score. Bnei Yehuda have really tightened up at the back since Abukasis returned, and everybody in Israel knows all about their forwards by now. No, I’m afraid that this game should be decided by how effective Bnei Yehuda are in front of goal, and based on what I’ve seen lately, they should have enough to win the game. I certainly can’t comprehend when they’re underdogs here. For me, the value lies in backing the home team with draw no bet cover.

Verdict: Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv to win with draw no bet at evens.

St. Gallen vs FC Basel 

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

I can’t say that either of these two teams have been particularly good this season. FC Basel have had more moments that have impressed me, but St. Gallen have played more consistently. On an average day, there’s really not much between the two teams, and the bookies have captured that pretty well with the odds given.

However, what the bookies have failed to take into account is that FC Basel’s squad, which is threadbare at best anyway, has been decimated by injuries, Covid-19, and suspensions. Defensive midfielder Xhaka and Brazilian full-back Jorge are no strangers to being out, and nor is new signing Abrashi. He was brought in to be a replacement for Zuffi when he’s injured, so imagine the irony of Abrashi himself now being injured. No, it’s far, far more than that with key centre-back Comert, backup left-back (main one with Jorge out) Padula out, utility man Petretta out, right-back Widmer out, their best playmaker Stocker out, as well as both von Moos and van Wolfswinkel in attack out.

Now, this hasn’t left FC Basel without any good players. Indeed, I’d argue that Cabral, Kasami, and Frei have been amongst FC Basel’s best players this season, and they’re all available tonight. Zhegrova has had his moments too, and Palacios may even be able to debutise. I’m gravely concerned for FC Basel though, because they’re simply not as good as they used to be. They don’t force themselves upon opponents like they used to, which means they see less of the ball. Subsequently, opponents don’t fear them anymore, and that leads to far more open, coin toss type games. 

The old FC Basel might have got away with these absentees, but not the new FC Basel. I mean, von Moos and van Wolfswinkel being out isn’t the end of the world, but their best defence-splitting passer is out, and all but two of their seven ‘main’ defenders are out today. Throw an erratic goalkeeper between the sticks, and an FC Basel side that is without a win in three weeks; one that is under intense pressure after their utter humiliation in the Schweizer Pokal at home against Challenge League outfit Winterthur. This is a good time to oppose FC Basel, that’s for sure.

So, no, I don’t regard St. Gallen as being a superior team to FC Basel – it’s just a good time to back them to get the best of their opponents, and I certainly wouldn’t do so without draw no bet because St. Gallen have really struggled for goals this season. It was inevitable they’d struggle after Demirovic and Itten but everything they’ve tried has failed. Kamberi was supposed to be the perfect replacement but that’s not happened at all, and he’s now buggered off back to Scotland. With Quintilla finally stepping back into ‘normal’ mode rather than the superhuman he was for the two preceding years, goals simply haven’t happened for St. Gallen. I mean, only Duah has bagged more than three – and his tally is six!

I still think that Zeidler has them playing good football, and that they’re only a finisher away from being Switzerland’s second best team. The margins are so fine at Super League level though, that St. Gallen have looked very ordinary this season. It just feels like it’ll be one of ‘those’ seasons for St. Gallen where they don’t have any luck, and never really get going. It’s a shame, though – Switzerland desperately needs someone to give Young Boys Bern a good ride for the title, and St. Gallen managed that really well last season.

Having said all that though, I do believe that St. Gallen could not ask for a more straightforward task tonight. They’re not going to get a better opportunity than this to beat FC Basel, and they need something to kickstart their Super League campaign if they intend on playing in Europe next season. As long as they take their chances against a horrendously short, demoralised FC Basel defence, St. Gallen really should pick up three points tonight – and they certainly shouldn’t lose.

Verdict: St. Gallen to win with draw no bet at 4/5.