TFT Issue 3359!

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix

KO: 07:10 (UK time)

The last time these two teams met, I backed Phoenix to win. They were the better team, they controlled proceedings, but got hit on the break twice and lost 2-1. That’s life, I guess! Since then though, the Jets have become more and more efficient (without necessarily playing better) and Phoenix have remained unlucky. That in itself has started me wondering just how unlucky the Kiwis actually are, you know?

I’ve lost count of how many times Phoenix should have picked up points this season and yet haven’t so I’m starting to wonder if it’s even bad luck at all. They’re not playing badly; let me be quite clear on that. They’ve got arguably the most mobile, energetic midfield in the division, and you don’t get into a Talay side without giving a shit. What they’re lacking is quality at both ends, which is something that wasn’t really an issue for them last season. I mean, Taylor and DeVere at the heart of defence whilst Hooper bagged at the other end? It was a good setup, especially with German midfielder Steinmann screening the centre-backs really well.

However, this season, they look a bit short, Phoenix. I know they’ve been dealt a shitty hand by being made to play home games in Australia, and it’s not like they’ve not attempted to replace Hooper, Steinmann and Taylor after they all moved on, but it’s just not worked out – yet. Hemed was Hooper’s replacement; he’s yet to score this season, has mostly been injured, and even his return today does not bother me because he’s not settled in yet. I think Laws has done well in Taylor’s stead, but now he’s carrying the can with DeVere out for at least a couple of months, and that’s a tall order for him. Numerous players were brought in to replace Steinmann but none of them have his awareness and precision passing, and few miss that more than Mexican creator Davila, who had a very good understanding with him. With that in mind, it’s not hard to figure out why Davila is struggling this season too – well, by his lofty standards anyway!

I don’t want to paint too droll a picture of Phoenix because they’re still a good, organised team that are lacking in some luck. They’ve had some real success stories this season, none moreso than ex-Sydney FC midfielder Devlin, who has been superb. I believe a win or two would really change their dynamic, and highlight the emergence of certain players. However, until they get it though, they’re nervously looking over their shoulders. I mean, this week they’ve had to field half of a “B” team in two matches. I thought they showed amazing character against Western Sydney Wanderers, although they should never have been allowed to leave that game with a point (it was their opponents not being smart enough throughout the game that did it), and they showed balls against Victory too, only to be undone by two Gestede headers from two corners. Bad luck or not, Phoenix just aren’t doing enough to get positive results.

Now, the Kiwis may have most of their players back now but are still without a good finisher (unless Hemed randomly turns it on), and still without top-drawer service because Davila is not getting the ball in the right areas, and when he does, the unfamiliarity with overlapping wing-backs is leading to miscommunication and mistimed passes. Furthermore, most of the goals they’ve conceded this week have stemmed from crosses not being dealt with properly, which is because DeVere is not there to organise everything – and he won’t be for a while. On top of that, today’s match is Phoenix’s third in a week. I know they’ve been forced to rotate anyway (plus they’re a naturally fit team) so fatigue won’t hit them as hard as it would most A-League clubs, but it’s still not helpful for a team bereft of luck, and short on quality. I think they’re in trouble today too.

See, I’m not duped by the Jets’ form guide, thinking that they’re going to walk all over Phoenix today. I’ve watched the Jets a lot recently, and they’ve seldom dominated games other than in brief spells. However, their defensive qualities are shining, as expected, and they’ve regained that familiar resilience and work-rate that was lacking earlier in the season. The Jets don’t mind not being the best as long as they want it more than their opponents. That wasn’t happening at the start of the season for a whole host of reasons, but now it is – and they look much better for it.

Unlike Phoenix, the Jets have had luck lately. Victory not making the most of their possession, City missing a simple one-on-one (actually, it was more like three against the goalkeeper!) etc. but the Jets’ spirited displays and belief has earned them that luck. With each passing week, they regain cohesion, organisation, and efficiency. I still have the same concerns for this team as I did at the start of the campaign, which predominantly centres around their lack of threat in attack. I mean, O’Donovan will win most balls in the air but they’re not using him properly yet – that’s why Matt Millar was brought back. I expect him to play today too, and he’s one hell of a lethal winger. Not a skilful winger, per se, but with a good level of intelligence and excellent acceleration, not to mention good deliveries and good finishing; h’s what O’Donovan has been lacking, for sure.

I mean, Yuel has arguably been their star this season but it’s mostly borne out of things he’s made for himself, you know? I don’t want to say he’s not a team player, but let’s just say that he doesn’t really tend to need others in order to show what he’s capable of so he tends to go it alone, although his tee up for Thurgate’s goal against Victory was beautiful. Millar will contribute more tactically, if I can put it that way. I’m keen to see what new youngster Stamatelopoulos will bring to their attack too, now he can finally play, a month or more after signing. He offers more mobility than O’Donovan, and that should make the Jets better at countering. 

So, yeah – I don’t want to get carried away by the Jets’ form guide here because they’re not playing amazingly. However, they’re giving a lot, they’re earning their luck, they’re taking their chances, and they look really organised at the moment. Duncan has been excellent in goal, Topor-Stanley and Boogaard are beasts in the heart of defence, O’Toole has settled in far better than I thought he would at wing-back/full-back, and Najjarine has really matured in midfield with his awareness and simple distribution. It’s all positive news for the Jets at the moment, even with defensive midfielder Kantarovski and wing-back Hoffman both injured at the moment, and they’ll be joined on the touchline today by Najjarine himself. 

I don’t class the Jets as a better team than Phoenix, for clarity. Indeed, if you forced me to pick, I’d say that Phoenix are better. However, at this moment in time, I believe it makes sense to trust the Jets. They’re getting more right, they’re far fresher, and their opponents are missing one key player through injury, and a number of others that will be on the pitch but aren’t playing close to their best. As long as the Jets properly marshall Ball when he makes lung-bursting runs into channels, they shouldn’t have any trouble in stemming what is likely to be a Phoenix tide, and then countering effectively. 

Ergo, at 137/100, the home win appeals to me. 

Verdict: Newcastle Jets to win at 137/100.

Nurnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

On paper, Nurnberg are a lot better than Braunschweig; I can’t escape that undeniable fact. Like I’ve said many times before, I really liked what Nurnberg did pre-season in their bid to not only be left out of the conversation surrounding relegation, but to be in the discussion for promotion. There’s something rotten at the core of this club though, and it keeps derailing them. With the squad they’ve got, there’s no reason for them to not make the top six, even if promotion didn’t happen (Bundesliga 2 is notoriously hard to get promoted from). Instead though, they find themselves in the relegation battle – again. 

When I watch Nurnberg play, I still see a very awkward team on show, you know? It’s as if all these good players got together the night before, but had never been in the same squad before. There’s little cohesion, and everything feels very ad hoc because of it. Sometimes that approach can work but in general, it doesn’t. Their new signing Daehli proved to be the match-winner against Karlsruher SC last time out, tapping into an empty net after yet more frustrating finishing luckily ended up seeing the ball bobble to him. Did they deserve the win? Not for my money; it was an off-day for Karlsruher SC. Their biggest fluke of the lot came against Darmstadt 98 though. How they won that game, I will never know. That crazy own goal that Darmstadt scored at the end was pure, pure luck; yet again, Nurnberg did nothing to warrant winning the game.

Again, Nurnberg have the quality to be so much better than this that opposing them is not something I do as often as I probably should. When I see them simply not putting in the work required to win games though, I can’t help but want to bet against them. There are too few players in this squad that give a shit, and the majority of them have defensive/screening roles and thus can’t serve as a catalyst up front. It speaks volumes that it took the signing of Schaffler, a thirty-two year old striker from relegated Wehen Wiesbaden to get anyone up front to give a shit about winning duels and pressing defenders, you know? 

Another problem that exists for the visitors today is their absentees, especially that of defensive midfielder Nurnberger. He brings energy and commitment to the middle of the park alongside Geis. Without him, I fear that they’ll be even worse at making life complicated for opposing teams. They’re still without some other regulars in attack, but like I said above, it’s only Schaffler that worries me today. Hack is very capable, but given that he’s only just returned from injury, I question whether he can influence the game enough for Nurnberg to beat a team that simply wants it more than they do. The quality is there, but the performances simply aren’t; they’re only avoiding defeat via luck nowadays, and it’s a seriously bad time of the season to be playing in such a complacent way.

Visitors Braunschweig have a weak squad; there’s no getting around that. They were a tad arrogant at the start of the season, I thought, not making enough signings to prepare them for the season ahead. However, there’s been no sign of arrogance in 2021; just intelligence. Behrendt has come in at the back, and they look more settled in defence for it. They’ve signed South Korean outcast Dong-won, and he’s significantly livened up their attack, which has been too reliant on Kobylanski for too long. Dong-won adds intelligent movement, speed, and good finishing because he’s too good for this level, and I’ve still no idea how they managed to lasso him into joining.

Those two signings have improved Braunschweig immeasurably though. It’s made their squad more confident, basically. They’ve still lost some games, but they’ve actually given a really good account of themselves in 2021. They’ve obviously got their limitations so when they lose against Hannover 96, VfL Bochum, or Holstein Kiel, I’m really not all that surprised. They’ve still done what they can, but what else can you do? They’re simply out of their depth in such encounters so all you can ask is that they give a shit, and they did.

In ‘easier’ games, they’ve been more effective. I thought they looked very dogged and focused against Heidenheim, for example, just as they did against Jahn Regensburg last time out. I mean, since making those two signings, the only teams to beat them have been those that are pushing for promotion, and even they’ve been given rough rides. I can’t deny that Nurnberg should be amongst that group but given that they’re doing nothing to prove it, why should they suddenly become an exception? Braunschweig look really proud, stubborn, and tenacious at the moment in their battle to survive, and although I question how long it can last for (they’ve started this ‘desperation’ a bit too early, I feel), they simply want wins more than most teams right now. Nurnberg may have better players, but they’re complete bottlers, and they do not play like they give a shit.

I have to believe that the visitors are going to be too strong and too committed for Nurnberg to overcome today, despite the quality gap. Therefore, at 93/100, I believe there’s value to be found in laying the hosts.

Verdict: Eintracht Braunschweig to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 93/100.

SV Sandhausen vs VfL Osnabruck

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

Sandhausen really should be too good for Osnabruck today. I’ve had that thought since the start of the season; all that surprised me was that Sandhausen were so inconsistent at the start of the season, and Osnabruck were absolutely flying! Parity has been restored for Osnabruck, who have understandably plummeted in 2021, but Sandhausen are still yet to fully convince. They need to do so soon, however, or relegation will be on the cards.

I mean, they may be better than Wurzburger Kickers, VfL Osnabruck, and Eintracht Braunschweig but two of those three have improved significantly in 2021 because desperation has set in, and they’re working harder. Sandhausen really need to up the ante when it comes to winning matches, basically. That’s what they’re short of. See, I may be critical of their winning ratio lately, but I actually think that they’ve applied themselves really well in 2021, both on and off the pitch. As you all know, I was a fan of what they did pre-season, not that it’s worked out for them. They’ve pushed the boat out again though, trying to remedy the situation they’ve found themselves in, which is why I think they’ll stay up. They’ve not made it easy for themselves, though!

They’ve been spirited lately, Sandhausen, and I like that. Their defending has been atrocious, which is a worry, but they’re at least back to scoring goals now. I knew that Keita-Ruel would lead the line well but that his goals would dry up at some stage, so the arrival of target man Schmidt has helped Sandhausen out on that front. Esswein has done really well in a creativity capacity since joining, and Behrens has stepped up to the plate lately too. Goalkeeper Kapino has joined to replace the departed Fraisl too, so I can’t accuse Sandhausen of being lazy or complacent. Things simply haven’t gone their way – but they’re at least attempting to turn things around, and that’s enough for me today.

Why? Well, Osnabruck are finally performing to a standard that the quality of their squad denotes they should. It was heartening to see them performing well above and beyond their best earlier in the season, against all odds, but it was also inevitable that they’d have to be brought back down to earth with a bang at some stage, which has now happened. Unlike their hosts, they’re not simply being unlucky, or looking a bit off-colour. Osnabruck are in this mess because they’re simply not a very good team; that’s the reality of it.

I had some hope for them when I saw that they’d united Amenyido with Santos up front, a partnership which started very promisingly but fell apart after Santos’ month out with injury in 2020. Neither of them have looked confident since then, and now Amenyido is amongst the absentees today, it’s hard to envision things getting any better for Osnabruck in this do-or-die match. They’re too easy to score against, Osnabruck, so it’s imperative that they find a way to score goals – and they haven’t. There’s a lot of football to be played, and I know they’ve signed Muller from Arminia Bielefeld and Grot from Leeds United to help out in attack, but I feel confident in stating that this team won’t be in the Bundesliga 2 next season. I don’t think they have enough of anything to survive this battle, not when I look at who they’re in it with.

The bad news for today’s trip is that Amenyido is not their only absentee. No, Beermann, Buchholz, Engel, Klaas, Grot, Ihorst, and Reis are absent too. Simplified, that’s their tallest forward, new forward, best central midfielder, and one of their best centre-backs. I didn’t fancy their chances before I saw this news; I certainly haven’t changed my mind now. I know that fate will smile upon them soon enough because of the law of averages, but there’s simply no reason to believe it’d be today.

For me, the home win at evens is a must.

Verdict: SV Sandhausen to win at evens.

Union Berlin vs TSG Hoffenheim 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

I think it’s handy for this tip, the fact that TSG Hoffenheim managed to embarrass themselves mid-week by crashing out of the UEFA Europa League against Norwegian side Molde FK, but it’s by no means the driving force behind this pick. If anything, that’s simply yet another example of something that has been going on at TSG Hoffenheim for what feels like a long time now.

They were once one of Germany’s more progressive teams, TSG Hoffenheim. They played outstanding football, scored lots of goals, and upset teams that were a lot better than them. SAP sponsored them (and still do!), and they became a team that regularly competed for European places. Now, though? I sort of feel like those days are coming to an end, really. Each year, they regress more and more. It’s not the harsh kind of regression like Hamburger SV all those years ago, or Schalke 04 for the past year or two, but it is still regression. They’ve been less competitive, less effective, and less consistent. Again – losing against Molde FK was simply the latest instance of it. This team actually lost 4-0 against Schalke 04 earlier in 2021. 4-0! 

I can’t deny that TSG Hoffenheim sometimes put on a good display, and sometimes remind everybody of their potential. It’s very occasional though, and it’d be even less occasional if Kramaric left, which he’s likely to in summer because he’s better than this and hasn’t got many more years of playing at the top level in his locker. Besides, Bayern are interested, and when they’re interested in a Bundesliga play, they tend to get them. What concerns me more than their hot-and-cold attacking is their defending, though. I mean, only three Bundesliga teams have shipped more than they have this season, all three of them are in the bottom four right now. Can TSG Hoffenheim really think they’re clear of the relegation battle? I don’t think so. All the teams below them (that have a realistic chance of getting out of the mire points-wise) have more fighting spirit than them, with the sole exception of Hertha Berlin, who have a better squad and their favourite manager back in charge now. I would be extremely worried if I were a TSG Hoffenheim fan because little about them convinces me.

That’s the thing – today’s visitors still play with the arrogance of a top-drawer team, attacking at will, but only sometimes making it count. If you’re going to play that way, you have to score more regularly because you’re almost never going to keep a clean sheet! Of late, they’ve not been as bad on that front but for me, it all depends on what type of team they play against. If they come up against an open team, and play a traditional Bundesliga match as a consequence of such, they’re fine. Open games allow their creativity to shine. However, coming up against tactically superior teams is a nightmare for them because they don’t break them down, and they almost always concede – and that’s what they’re up against today.

See, Union Berlin may not be as revered as TSG Hoffenheim but they’re a far more impressive unit, and they’ve been progressing for three years now. I don’t even know how they do it with the budget they have, but they continually make impressive acquisitions that fit in effortlessly. Everybody is on the same page at Union Berlin, and it’s lovely to see. The only sad part is that their passionate fans can’t get in the stadium to see what is easily the best Union Berlin team of all time. 

It’s not like Union Berlin are just being fortunate, either. I really don’t think that this team gets anywhere near enough credit for what they’ve achieved this season. Bear in mind how long Kruse and Pohjanpalo were out for, in addition to Ujah having been out all season long – that was supposed to be their front three this season! Instead, they’ve had to get Teuchert and Becker to step things up as pacey accomplices, and then panic-loan Awoniyi from Liverpool to lead the line – but they’ve been impeccable! Awoniyi is not a natural finisher but everything else about him has been sheer perfection at Union Berlin, and the other two, although limited, have done seriously well. They’ve basically been flying high without three of their main attacking threats, which is really impressive. 

On top of that, they’re garnering most points by outsmarting teams. Man for man, I couldn’t call them an excellent defensive team, Union Berlin – but as a collective, with Fischer in charge, I can.say that they’re outstanding. I’ve watched this team outsmart Bayern Munich, Bv09 Borussia Dortmund, Borussia Moenchengladbach etc. in 2021, and each in different ways too. Their preparation is out of this world. Whether it was playing for set pieces against Dortmund, or playing long diagonals in behind against Bayern, they always ensured that they carried a distinct goal threat, took their chances as best they could, and defended vigilantly. In terms of tactics and flexibility, I genuinely consider the capital club to be one of Germany’s best teams right now. It’s only a lack of stars that costs them in some games.

Therefore, backing this Union Berlin side is a no-brainer for me, because they’re always worth the risk. Even with Becker and Awoniyi joining Ujah on the sidelines today, the return of Kruse and Pohjanpalo shouldn’t impact things much. Union Berlin are a ruthlessly efficient machine this season, and facing an inconsistent, tired TSG Hoffenheim at home should be a pretty straightforward game for Union Berlin today, just as the reversal of this fixture was. As long as Kramaric isn’t on his “A” game today, I can only see value in backing the home win with draw no bet today.

Verdict: Union Berlin to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Olympique de Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

New week, new owner! That’s the latest out of Olympique de Marseille in their utterly tragic yet somehow hilarious situation. I don’t know if Longoria will change anything or not; frankly, it’s just somebody new for the Marseille fans to launch tirades of abuse at when their patently average squad achieves an average squad’s result. Still, he can’t be any worse, the Spaniard, so let’s see what happens on France’s beautiful south coast, shall we?

As far as tonight’s game goes, I think that they’re still in a huge amount of trouble. The Stade Velodrome is not hard to play at when there’s no fans in it anyway. The fact that Marseille are still generally priced by the bookies as if they’re a good team makes it incredibly inviting to oppose them too. Helpfully, Marseille’s huge disciplinary problems usually means that their threadbare squad is without personnel that cannot be replaced, and sure as shit, they’re without Sakai and Benedetto due to suspension for this game. 

Now, the Marseille fans in general seem to prefer new Spanish right-back Lirola anyway. My suspicions are that they prefer him because he contributes more going forward, which Sakai tries his best at but is generally rather inconsistent, and as Marseille have been so starved of creativity this season, Lirola is seen as a starter. I think that’s fine and dandy for games in which Marseille are favourites, but against what can only be described as a vastly superior Lyon team, I think they need Sakai back to help the team defend better – but Sakai is out, which creates a problem. Then there’s the Benedetto situation. I don’t consider him to be a particularly good forward at Ligue 1 level, but he is capable of producing something from nothing, and he gives a shit, which makes him a very rare commodity in this Marseille squad. Therefore, they’ll miss him.

Subsequently, it’s all down to Thauvin and Payet tonight, assuming Marseille have some intention of getting a positive result from the encounter. Payet blows hot and cold, as you all know by now. Thauvin is brilliant but even he barely scores nowadays, presumably fed up of playing alongside players that simply don’t give a shit. At least they’ve got tenacious Germain to lead the line and provide some kind of press or Marseille really would be up shit creek without a paddle. He’s not a good finisher, but he at least sacrifices himself for the team. Again though, this is a temperamental, hot-headed, average squad; I just don’t have a reason to fear them.

The above fused with the natural drama that surrounds Marseille makes me want to oppose them. They’ve got an inexperienced manager to lead a lot of big egos, a lot of new faces that are to fit in, no depth, no leaders, intense pressure, and at least one player – Ntcham – that was signed and nobody seems to know why. I just can’t find a reason to fear this team nowadays, folks – sorry. For what it’s worth, I really do like traditional clubs, and I hope they bounce back one day, but this is a Marseille team to always oppose at the present.

This Marseille team is well-known by Lyon, courtesy of ex-Marseille boss Rudi Garcia, who is at the helm of the visitors, and doing a very good job. Lyon’s fans are just as uppity and temperamental as Marseille’s fans so it’s unpopular for them to glorify Garcia for restoring them to a genuinely good, hard-working team because they consider him a ‘Marseille reject’, or so I have been told by their fans. Instead, they praise their Sporting Director, Juninho, who is naturally a legend at the club from his playing days. Maybe it’s a combination of both, but whatever the case may be, Lyon are back – and it’s about time, too!

The project is not complete; you can see how much Lyon’s displays drop when they’re missing any of their first-team players. However, that starting eleven is one of the best in France right now, for my money. They’ve replaced sulky and disruptive influences with hard-working, skilful players, thus keeping in line with the club’s ethos of playing good attacking football whilst also working harder when out of possession. They’ve had the intelligence to shift on Dembele, which absolutely had to happen, but probably wouldn’t have happened five years ago because nobody had the balls to make such a call, fearful of the repercussions. They look so much better with Toko Ekambi and Kadewere in attack than hmi, though, because they actually contribute to build-up play instead of just being a fast forward. 

For Lyon’s excellent campaign to date,I daresay the praise will go to Depay, who has been remarkable, and Paqueta, who has settled in marvellously. Perhaps even Aouar, at least for those based outside of France. For me though, the heartbeat of this team comes from Guimaraes and Mendes in midfield. Those two sitting provides the best protection that Lyon’s defence have had since the Diarra days. Having Denayer and Marcelo at the heart of defence is such a bonus too; one is fast enough to sweep up balls in behind, and the other is dominant in the air. These emerging little combinations have made Lyon so good that teams find it really complicated to deal with them nowadays, which again, hasn’t happened for ages. In recent years, simply pressing Lyon or defending deep was enough; now it’s not even close to being enough.

With this new level of professionalism, effectiveness, and game management at Lyon, and the utter state of disrepair that Marseille find themselves in, backing Lyon to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 27/25 really appeals to me tonight. 

Verdict: Olympique Lyonnais to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 27/25.