It’s a big one in Hamburg tonight with in-form St. Pauli hosting promotion hopefuls Hamburger SV. The visitors are naturally favourites to win this game, and given that they’ve had the best squad in the Bundesliga 2 for the past three seasons in a row, I think it’s fair to say that’s warranted. However, the key there is that they have indeed remained in this division for that period of time, which should tell you that something is very wrong at the club.
It’s always the same story with them, which has got to be infuriating for their fans more than anything. I find it really hard to nitpick with them too because they have tried a lot of different stuff when it comes to returning to the Bundesliga, back where they belong. They’ve tried playing with lots of Bundesliga-level footballers – didn’t work. They’ve tried appointing a Bundesliga-level manager, as well as signing experienced players from Bundesliga 2 players – didn’t work. This time they’ve tried appointing a manager that knows all about work-rate and team-building, one who knows the German lower leagues well – and time will tell how successful that is. I’ve seen no reason thus far to expect anything other than what has transpired in years gone by though.
The way it goes for Hamburger SV is that they start really brightly, usually leading the table by the time the mid-season break comes around. At this point, some fans begin to class them as the best team in the division, and even some fans harbour faint hopes of their long overdue promotion coming home to roost. However, as soon as the second-half of the season kicks off, they start to struggle. See, they’ve no problem being the best team at this level because they’ve got the most resources, hence the best players joining. However, they struggle after the restart every single year because they can’t cope with opponents that enter a desperation mode that the business end of season brings upon them.
I mean, look at Braunschweig and Wurzburger Kickers in 2021; they’ve both been very good because they’ve had to be. They know that their situation is dire, that a return to the division below is staring them in the face, so those players are giving a bit more, and their respective new recruits have breathed some fresh life into the teams. When those teams step up, and work that bit harder, opponents find it harder to beat them, and none moreso than Hamburger SV, who are not prepared to put in the work-rate to match such teams. It’s hard to oppose a team with such obvious quality (e.g. veteran striker Terodde up front) but without the necessary energy and belief, Hamburger SV are simply not a reliable team.
By far the weakest element of Hamburger SV is their mentality too. At no point am I ever convinced that they’re utterly sure of their capacity to be promoted. All it takes is one or two bad results to send them on a downward spiral, and they don’t have the leaders and work-rate to get out of it. Subsequently, one win from their last five (which came against a Paderborn 07 side that was preparing for a DFB Pokal encounter with Bv09 Borussia Dortmund just a few days after) is completely unsurprising to me. They’ve had a couple of challenging fixtures along the way, sure, but they’ve had a couple of easy ones too. They simply don’t have the bottle for a promotion push.
Quality? Yes, it’s there in an abundance. They’ve got 1,5 squads of players which could predominantly do a good job in the division above. Kittel and Kinsombi have both dominated this division before, and I am a huge fan of winger Jatta, who should be playing at a higher level. Do they have the bottle to win this intense derby though? I doubt it. They shit themselves against Wurzburger Kickers last time out, losing 3-2, and it’s very rare that they even play well against St. Pauli, let alone beat them. Why? Because St. Pauli always, without fail, want to win this derby more than their more illustrious neighbours – and I doubt tonight’s affair will be any different.
St. Pauli’s defence is crap; that’s the risk with backing them to get something from this game. I suppose it’d make more sense to back goals here but again, I just don’t trust the visitors in games that matter. They’ve no way to counter intensity, and despite an atrocious few months at the start of the season, St. Pauli have intensity in abundance. They’re energetic, confident, fast, and very effective. I don’t know how they’ve switched it up as much as they have throughout the season; it’s been very random. I appreciate that getting Bundesliga level attacker Burgstaller back from injury has played a big role because he’s been terrific for them, but it should still take more to bridge the gap between the two very different St. Pauli sides that have been witnessed this season.
Whatever the case may be though, St. Pauli are playing like promotion is a very real possibility – which of course, it isn’t. They’ve now won four on the spin, and at least three of them have been really tough matches to win, you know? It would have been seven from seven had VfL Bochum not visited Hamburg with their typical professionalism, grinding out a 3-2 win. The point is that is takes three goals or more to beat St. Pauli right now, and as capable as Hamburger SV are of scoring that many goals, they simply don’t work hard enough for me to believe that they’ll do it.
With Marmoush providing the legs, Burgstaller providing the nous, and Makienok providing the height, St. Pauli have a lot of routes to goal here. Zalazar has been excellent this season, Kyereh has had his moments, and even Dittgen has stepped up of late. The signing of Reginiussen in defence hasn’t greatly changed anything there, but the St. Pauli attack is deadly, honestly. When a team works as hard as this with the quality they’ve now got, they’re dangerous – and not to be underestimated. They may be inconsistent, St. Pauli, but you can usually bet on them upsetting the apple cart because little appeals to them more than that – other than derbies!
To summarise, Hamburger SV are absolutely the better team here. However, they don’t work hard enough for me to worry about them beating St. Pauli tonight. I think the home team will have so much energy and belief that they’re going to sweep their opponents away. Based solely on what has been produced on the pitch in 2021, there’s not a chance in hell that St. Pauli should be underdogs in this match. Therefore, backing the home side to avoid defeat at 22/25 is very, very appealing.
