TFT Issue 3362!

Ankaragucu vs Galatasaray

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

The general approach of Ankaragucu in 2021 has been to give games a really good go. They go ultra defensive against the top teams in Turkey for obvious reasons, but everybody else is fair game for them. Despite having one of the worst squads in the Super Lig, they’ve played some seriously good football over the past few months, and actually given themselves a reasonable shot of staying up. At a time of complete positivity though, Ankaragucu did what a number of Turkish clubs would do in their position – sacked their manager unnecessarily. Madness. Pure madness. I doubt Guardiola could get more out of this team than Dalci did but there you have it.

Since Hikmet Karaman was appointed as replacement, Ankaragucu have not won a game. Kayserispor away, Rizespor at home, Hatayspor away – none of them easy, but none of them impossible either. It’s knocked the wind out of their sails, this unnecessary bringing in of Karaman, and for what? All it’s done is cost a club money when they have very little of it anyway! Based on what I saw over the past few months, I wasn’t convinced they’d go down; it’s the best they’ve been for ages. Now, though? I’m confident they’ll be relegated under Karaman.

Their patterns haven’t changed though, and nor will they. They still want to win most games but won’t even try to against the top teams. They’re not bad at parking the bus, as it goes. Galatasaray struggled with them last season, although that was a very poor, out-of-sorts Galatasaray side. I don’t see Ankaragucu suddenly seizing the bull by the horns, not whilst their opponents are playing as ruthlessly as they are. Furthermore, key attacker Paintsil is suspended for this game after his red card against Hatayspor, making it really unlikely for Ankaragucu to make things happen here.

Galatasaray should win the game, of course, but the odds do nothing for me. No fans helps, of course, but keep in mind how much the Super Lig’s quality has dropped this season. It’s not a coincidence that it’s come when most teams are being asked to play every three days, which they’re simply not accustomed to. Galatasaray have a big enough squad to rotate and still win matches like this, of course; I certainly don’t envision them losing in the capital. Still – this type of game is hard right now, and the weather in Turkey has not been ideal in recent weeks. I would not lightly back the away win.

That said, I couldn’t really blame anybody for backing Galatasaray here. I think Fatih Terim has finally gotten the combination in this squad right, and the return of talismanic goalkeeper Muslera has ironed out all their defensive issues. They look a really well-oiled machine at the moment, and it’d take a braver man than I am to oppose them in the Super Lig title race because everything is going their way right now, and they’ve got more match-winners than the other teams. I daresay the Turks may disagree with me here, but it’s nice to see the three Istanbul powerhouses competing for the Super Lig crown again after some disappointing recent years. They can all win it, but for me, Galatasaray should edge it.

Today’s match in Ankara is likely to be a bit more grisly and arduous than Galatasaray prefer. As they’ve amply demonstrated over the past month or two though, they’re quite prepared to get their hands dirty when they have to. They don’t always have to win in a flamboyant fashion, basically – they’re well equipped when it comes to grinding too, and I envision a lot of that being required to win today. Galatasaray are right to be priced as favourites here but with almost certainly a bit of rotation on the horizon, and a Paintsil-less Ankaragucu awaiting them, I can’t see Galatasaray going gung-ho here. Instead, I expect a patient approach, knowing that they’ll get their opportunities, and convert them.

The above makes me think that, contrary to what recent statistics may suggest, we should see a low-scoring match here. Ankaragucu will go for the draw, and Galatasaray will not want to fall behind here. For me, backing under 2.5 goals makes sense at this moment in time.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 23/20.

AC Milan vs Udinese

KO: 19:45 (UK time)

In the past, I would never have backed Milan to win this game. This is the kind of team they’d always, always struggle against, predominantly through not wanting it as much as them. However, since Pioli took over, such games have not fazed Milan, even if they have ended up falling behind. I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me from backing them tonight either.

The Milan form guide has taken a bit of a nose-dive lately but that happens to every team at some stage. Remember that their best player this season – Ibrahimovic – is thirty-nine, and Milan are attempting to play every three days so it was inevitable that there’d be some kind of kickback at some stage, which has now happened. It’s ended up being enough to knock them out of the Coppa Italia, to almost get knocked out of the UEFA Europa League, and to take a pounding from their neighbours recently. 

Still, a win in the capital last time out should be enough to set them back on the right track, and Milan are not short of quality. I don’t want to make you all things that Ibrahimovic carries them because that’s just not true. He’s shone this season because of the support he’s had from Calhanoglu, Tonali, Kessie, Diaz, Castillejo, Leao, and Rebic, especially with Bennacer left to control the middle of the park. Mandzukic’s arrival has also paved the way for better rotation at Milan now that they’re playing as often as they are, meaning Ibrahimovic can be rested more often. This is the best Milan side I’ve seen since the Ancelotti days, and they’ve become very effective too, enough so for me to not be concerned about Ibrahimovic, Calhanoglu etc. being out tonight.

I even like their defence, as it goes. Donnarumma is a fine goalkeeper; you all know that. They’ve really straightened up in defence, at least when not playing every three days, with Hernandez, Kjaer, and new arrival Tomori in the equation. Calabria has done surprisingly well this season, although the Dalot experiment has pretty much failed. At least they’ve now found a solution for Romagnoli getting injured, which happens more often than it should. They look good as a unit, Milan, and very dangerous in the final third. You know what I like the most about them though? They look competitive. Players like Saelemaekers may not get much credit but it’s that kind of person that forces those around them to work harder, to give a shit, and to get stuck in – Milan have been lacking that ever since Gattuso stopped playing for them. There’s a finite balance of everything in this Milan squad now, basically – and I can’t doubt that team beating Udinese at home.

Of course, my pick is helped by Udinese themselves. I actually think that, on paper, they put together their best squad in years this season, largely because one of the other ‘triangle teams’ (all owned by the same owner) got relegated, namely Watford. They want to play at a higher level, and Udinese was the obvious choice of the two remaining ‘triangle teams’ so Pereyra, Pussetto, and Deulofeu both joined them, and they’re all too good for this team. Those two, fused with playmaker de Paul staying at the club after pre-season interest from Leeds United, looked surprisingly intelligent from a club that generally just wants to sign youngsters and sell them for big bucks. Of course, not having to pay for the afore-mentioned trio helped the ‘transfers’ along, but it was refreshing to see at least one of these clubs trying to move forward rather than make a quick dollar or two.

However, Udinese typically impaled themselves upon their own sword earlier in 2021, disastrously letting forward Lasagna join Hellas Verona on loan. Why, I don’t know. He’s not a great forward but he’s precisely the man they need running into space for the others to find or even to serve as a decoy. His natural pace caused problems, and Udinese really needed that option for the others to thrive – so they let him go to a team that’s no better off than they are. It’s madness. I love that they brought in Llorente to be his replacement because he’s seriously good, both in the air and on the floor, but it cannot be considered a progressive long-term move because of his age. Again – the two transfers do not make sense when analysed as part of the big picture, which is why I am confused.

On top of that, Deulofeu has had lots of injury problems since joining, Pussetto has been out a lot lately, and even Pereyra has had a spell on the sidelines. Mandragora has gone, leaving them with less midfield controllers, and I have little faith that they’ve got such calls right, Udinese. Again, I get that it’s all about the money for them but this approach of theirs cannot be taken seriously. If you want Llorente to be serviced, you need a good wide game. Udinese do not have good enough full-backs for that to happen, and their best wingers are both injured so it cannot be considered a surprise that Llorente is yet to score for his new team. It all looked so positive for Udinese – and now it’s gone to shit again. 

Udinese will still be annoying to play against, as they always are, but I cannot overlook odds of 4/5 on Milan beating them at home with the above in mind. Both teams are without players, but Milan have depth – Udinese do not. 

Verdict: AC Milan to win at 4/5.