TFT Issue 3363!

Kasimpasa vs Trabzonspor

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

There’s a chance I’ll horribly regret this pick by about 15:00 today if Trabzonspor’s past is anything to go by. This is a highly emotional club that massively dramatises any situation they’re in. If they’re playing well and winning, for example, they’re the best Turkish team of all time. However, if they lose so much as a single game, their heads go, their confidence is shattered, and they go on a losing spree for a few weeks. It’ll be interesting to see if that happens again today.

As you can tell by my pick, I believe that we’ll see an exception today. I may be wrong, but I believe that boss Avci has the capacity to keep things calm, organised, and efficient. He did it so many times in the past with other clubs that I think he can do it again now. Don’t forget what he’s achieved since joining Trabzonspor. He inherited a team that had been pulled apart by other clubs pre-season, poaching the likes of Novak and Sosa. He had to rebuild it, add a few players, and keep the wheels turning. Because of that, Trabzonspor have turned a disastrous campaign into one where they’re still technically in the title race, and they were also the first Turkish tem of the season to lift any silverware, beating reigning Super Lig champions Istanbul BB in the Super Cup final. I simply believe that it’ll take more than one defeat against Fenerbahce to upset this team right now.

I appreciate that Trabzonspor’s hatred of Fenerbahce is great nowadays because of what happened in the past with the ban, the league title etc. but even so, Avci’s calming presence and methodical nature should enable the northerners to power through in Istanbul today. He’s not just brought in good players, Avci. No, he’s brought in resilient players that work hard, which Trabzonspor need. Therefore, even in darker periods, Trabzonspor should – in theory – be alright. They bounced back from Trabzonspor’s only other defeat under Avci’s reign, which came against Galatasaray, by beating Fatih Karagumruk 2-1 away from home. I’d settle for the same scoreline today against Kasimpasa.

Most away teams in Turkey are favoured at the moment because playing without home crowds is a distinct advantage for the visiting teams. That’s not really the case for Kasimpasa though, who seldom have more than 1000-2000 fans at home games. This is how it always is for them so Kasimpasa shouldn’t be as badly afflicted by the absence of fans as, say, Sivasspor, for example, or Ankaragucu/Genclerbirligi. Despite that, Kasimpasa have been crap for a while now as they’ve still not adjusted to boss Capa’s style, and he joined back in November. I have to believe that his number will be up soon, based on the average patience ratio that exists in the Super Lig. I mean, Ankaragucu just sacked their manager during their best period for two years, so what Kasimpasa are hanging around for, I do not know!

It’d be stupid to say that Kasimpasa were a bad team, though – that’s just not true. Nowadays they’re always capable of pushing for a UEFA Europa League place, whether they obtain one or not, largely thanks to their penchant for finding bargain-priced creators to help their counters. The right manager would make this team seriously hard to beat, just as they always were over the past five or six years. Capa does not seem to be that man, though. This is a good, experienced Super Lig side; it should not take this long to implement your ideas, and get the best out of your team, but Kasimpasa continue to lack conviction, effectiveness, and consistency.

I disagree with some of their signings (e.g. Drinkwater, Tosic) because I don’t know why they were brought in. However, signing players like Kiese-Thelin and Bistrovic are yet more examples of how astute the Istanbul minnows can truly be when they want to. Whilst they’re defending as badly as a unit as they are though, it doesn’t matter how much they improve their attack because they’re shipping way too many goals. New Dutch defender Luckassen, signed to be the one that Capa builds his defence around, won’t be able to help today either due to his red card received against Goztepe at weekend. So he’s out, Jeanvier is out, who was signed at the start of the season to be another regular in defence, meaning Kasimpasa are now short of centre-backs – again. That, fused with attack-minded full-backs goes some distance as to explaining why Kasimpasa concede as freely as they do.

I do fear the Kasimpasa attack because it’d be really good – under the right manager. Luckily for us, Capa is not someone that knows how to tap into it properly at this time. I just think that Kasimpasa are a team that should be opposed right now, really. Trabzonspor have gone from strength to strength since Avci joined whereas the home team have struggled since Capa took over. The only real good result Kasimpasa recorded was a 4-3 win against Trabzonspor away from home, rather ironically, and I remember watching the game. Trabzonspor played them off the park, were 3-2 up until five minutes from time, and then Ie inexplicably gave a goal away, and Koita scored a worldly to win it in the dying embers. It was a smash-and-grab job, and if I remember rightly, it was the final straw that broke the donkey’s back with regard to English boss Newton, who was sacked. I just don’t see Kasimpasa being quite as lucky today.

So, yeah – with the proviso that Trabzonspor’s emotions don’t get the best of them, backing the away win at evens appeals to me here.

Verdict: Trabzonspor to win at evens.

FC Sion vs Lugano

KO: 17:15 (UK time)

When I was creating my initial draft of picks for today, I omitted Lugano from it. Sure, I liked them to beat FC Sion because, well, I like everybody to beat FC Sion right now – it just makes sense! Unfortunately, the bookies know it though, and I would have needed some serious persuading to back Lugano to win this fixture at 5/4 without draw no bet. Those were my initial thoughts, anyway. 

However, having seen the team news, I’ve got to roll with Lugano here. I seldom need much encouragement to oppose lazy, overrated, and wholly disinterested FC Sion anyway, but when they’re missing the players that they are tonight, the away win simply makes sense here. It’s not accurate to say that they’re carried by anyone but Grgic because it really is every man for himself at this club, and few of them stand up to be counted here. Grgic is the best that they’ve got after they lost Toma to Racing Genk last season, and Kasami to FC Basel earlier this season, seemingly carrying the FC Sion ‘virus’ to the club, making even his current club into a joke despite his personally impressive displays.

Grgic is the only one left at FC Sion that gives a shit, and it shows. Why he’s there, I don’t know. Does he love Geneva? He’s not from there, but I’m struggling to work out why such a good player would stay at that club after two or three years of reminding the whole of Switzerland just how good a midfielder he can be at an incredibly disappointing club, one that has been walking a tightrope in the battle against relegation for a couple of years now, and that rope might just snap this time around.

Anyway – Grgic is out tonight, which is a problem. In fact, I can’t think of a bigger problem for FC Sion to have, and that’s saying a lot because owner Constantin sure does his best to bring about new problems on a regular basis. They’ve had over fifty managers at FC Sion since the turn of the century. What’s that – an average of over 2.5 managers per season? It’s embarrassing, and showing no signs of slowing down either. But I digress; Grgic’s absence is a colossal problem for FC Sion at any given time as he runs the midfield alongside the warrior that is Serey Die.

Now, FC Sion made some good signings earlier in the season, bringing in lethal French forward Hoarau after years of dominating Swiss football at Young Boys Bern, and FC Thun winger Tosetti, who hadn’t played well for twelve months or so but whose pedigree was well-known in the country. Both are players that can make things happen, and given the relative stagnation of Luan and Baltazar, that was incredibly necessary. The fact that Hoarau is still yet to bag his first goal for them in the third month of 2021 tells you how few chances they create for him (and yes, I appreciate he was injured for a month or two of this period), and Tosetti is largely responsible on that front. It’s fair to say that FC Sion haven’t got any kind of return on either investment – and it’s largely the club’s fault.

There’s no energy at this club, and certainly no conviction. Subsequently, players aren’t making good runs in behind, and there’s a real sense of trepidation about playing the ball forward with most players opting to go safe with sideways passing instead. Occasionally they look good on the break but that’s about all you get from them. Their leading goal-scorer this season is naturally Grgic with eight, who is out. Second in line is Karlen with four, who is also out. Both act as link-up men, further damaging FC Sion’s capacity to hurt teams. I love Serey Die being there because he always brings life to any situation but he really is on his own without Karlen and Grgic tonight. And did I mention that Hoarau is out too? He may be yet to bag for his new club, but he’s absolutely their best forward in every single way – and he won’t be playing either. 

That’s pretty bad, huh? Well, their defence is in a bad way too, you know. They brought Lacroix back to the club in January after a couple of years of not playing. He was a good defender before he left but bringing him back after not kicking a ball for a year or so was a strange move. Anyway, he’s been something of a regular since then, playing alongside poor Bamert, who must be wondering why he only ever gets to play in shit teams, wasting his potential. The two of them have done quite well together, as it goes, partially thanks to the industry of Serey Die in front of them, and the cowardice of the team in general. They’re good centre-backs though – and both are out tonight. Other defenders like Kabashi, Martic, and Andersson are also still injured, as is one of Grgic’s understudies in midfield, Zock. For absolute clarity, there is nothing in this team I like tonight. All of the energy, limited attacking quality, desire, and structure has gone with those absentees. If they get something from this game, it’ll be squarely down to Lugano not showing up.

Admittedly, Lugano themselves haven’t been great lately, even going down 2-0 to injury-ravaged Lausanne Sport last time out. They’ve had some problematic injuries of their own, to be fair, but I’m still disappointed in them because I know what they’re capable of – and they’re not performing well enough with that in mind. I mean, they’ve just signed Abubakar, a striker they’ve needed in their squad for years, and their response to that has been to not create enough chances for him. Their link-up men simply aren’t doing their jobs well enough so when Custodio went out injured recently, it was a problem. Luckily for us, there’s a good chance he’ll return tonight, but I’m still not happy with the situation in southern Switzerland.

Bottani does his best, and Gerndt has his moments, but there’s a lack of a flair player here, or even a direct creator. Why that is, with Aratore and Gashi languishing at Aarau, and Roberto Rodriguez available for free(!) after he was the latest to fall foul of Yakin at FC Schaffhausen, I don’t know. Sometimes I wonder if Lugano don’t want to get back to how good they were in the Zeman times, you know? Still, the quality is there; they just need a bit of encouragement, and facing this depleted, depressing FC Sion, home or away, is motivation enough for anyone to show up.

They’ve recently brought in veteran defender Ziegler, which I think is good business. He stopped playing way too early, given how well he’d been playing, and I think he’ll make a good addition after his appearance against Lausanne Sport. I’m also encouraged by Lugano finding the net more than usual in 2021, even if I am rather critical of their creative setup. It’s defending they’ve struggled with more in 2021, hence Ziegler’s arrival. With Abubakar and Custodio likely to feature here though, and FC Sion in a state of disarray, backing the away win at 5/4 is a must for me tonight. 

Verdict: Lugano to win at 5/4.