TFT Issue 3364!

Adelaide United vs Newcastle Jets

KO: 08:35 (UK time)

Making Adelaide United underdogs at home against the Jets today strikes me as a strange call from the bookies. It’s not because of the form guide either, although back-to-back wins sure does help with momentum.

Against the Mariners, I thought they were very lucky. They were awarded three penalties, two of which never were, and the third was dicey at best. However, despite coming up against a physically intense team like the Mariners, I still thought Adelaide held their own pretty well in that game, and deserved a draw for their newly-discovered backbone – but at least they took their penalties in a very clinical fashion. Against Western Sydney, they started brightly, capitalised upon errors made by their opponents, and were very clinical. I couldn’t say that they were the better team, but they were the smarter team – and luckier team, too. I mean, I doubt I’ve ever seen worse heading than Western Sydney showed in that game; I lost count of how many corners they won the first ball from, and did nothing with!

Still, Adelaide look more confident in front of goal, and that’s all that was missing to me. They’ve never been a defensive team, and they’re still not, so conceding goals or giving away chances is a natural byproduct of what they do. On top of that, you have to appreciate that both Strain and Jakobsen were absent in recent weeks, which is half of their back four – and they’re both back today. Even if the improvement is minimal, I still do expect an improvement from the hosts when it comes to defending set pieces or crosses into the box.

Importantly, Juric returns up front to lead the line, and that’s a nice boost to have. As brilliant as teenager Mohammed Toure really is, sometimes you just need a big front man to relieve some pressure, and Juric is the only one at Adelaide that can do that. They’ve got some marvellous youngsters, Adelaide, but they’ve needed their more experienced heads a lot this season so it’s nice to have them all back now, including Goodwin, who bagged inside two minutes on his second debut at the club. He’s a brilliant match-winner, and will help this team score a lot more goals, I assure you.

It was nice to see Halloran getting back to his best last time out too. With their more experienced players doing their jobs, their youngsters will do their jobs better too. Although they’ve had to ride their luck in the past couple of matches, I still believe that Adelaide are better off for it. They’re working harder, they’re playing smarter, and they’re taking their chances better. That’s a team I can trust. I do have concerns about their depth, and it bothers me that they seem to lack any kind of proper midfield ‘sitter’ to prevent them from being overrun, but the majority of what they do is positive, and I personally class them as a better team than the Jets right now.

The Jets had gone unbeaten for a little while until Phoenix beat them at weekend. The simplest way I can put it is that the Jets’ luck ran out in that one. They didn’t deserve to lose the game; they deserved a draw. However, they can’t really complain because they’ve deserved to draw against Victory and City too – but won both. Luck plays more of a part than folks realise sometimes. Against Phoenix, the Jets had the better of it. Now, I thought they’d win it, but I didn’t think they’d control it because of how good Phoenix were on that front the last time the two teams met. To my surprise, the Jets did control it, and did very well on that front, only lacking in a bit of penetration because their passing wasn’t quick enough without Najjarine in midfield. Ball’s opener was a deflected shot that Duncan stood no chance with, and Waine’s strike from range was a number of errors at once with nobody closing him down, and Duncan moving his feet way too slowly to deal with a shot from range which really wasn’t very powerful. Again – they lucked out, the Jets. 

Because they’ve been unbeaten for a while, people have tended to stop focusing on the Jets’ weaknesses – but I’ve noticed them. The goals they’ve scored have been really opportunistic rather than training ground routines. I can also see that Millar and O’Donovan are not yet on the same page, meaning that the service into the Irishman is not good enough for him to be of any real use. Teams have figured out that Yuel is the main threat now so they simply sit on him, and watch the Jets flounder – which they have been. Other than counters, the Jets have not been especially good at hurting teams recently. It’s a lack of natural creativity which is the ultimate problem, but I also think Najjarine still being out is slowing down their passing around the edge of the box, and that in turn is making it harder for them to create chances.

The Jets need a natural creator, and a natural goal-scorer before I start to take them seriously. Something like an uninjured Vargas and a homesick Taggart would do very nicely! They’re not a bad team without such, and I really do like their defensive setup in general. It’s not a team I can take too seriously right now though, because they just don’t do enough to hurt teams. Even Adelaide should not struggle to deal with this attack, in other words. Can the Jets reality contain Goodwin and co. for ninety minutes though? Time will tell, I suppose, but I doubt it. 

Therefore, for me, it makes sense to back Adelaide to win with draw no bet cover at 11/10.

Verdict: Adelaide United to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Paderborn 07 vs Darmstadt 98 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

Paderborn haven’t been consistent enough for my liking this season. However, this is a good time to face Darmstadt 98, who are desperate for points, and the home team appears to be thriving on playing games that don’t really matter now that they’re not going to get promoted, and they’re not going to get relegated. 

For me, the change happened when they ran Bv09 Borussia Dortmund unbelievably close in the DFB Pokal. They ended up losing 3-2 in extra-time but it was a herculean effort from the Bundesliga 2 side. Since then, they’ve been putting a lot more effort into their matches. Make of that what you will, but despite their form guide showing one win in four, I’ve actually been impressed with Paderborn. Not winning games is an occupational hazard of being a football team, especially one that attacks as much as they do; I can live with that. What bothered me earlier in the campaign was that they weren’t doing anywhere near enough in the final third to win them. 

At the present time though, I like Paderborn. I still maintain that, with the right preparation, they’d have been in the mixer for promotion back to the Bundesliga this season. The good things they’ve done have taken too long to do though, and the Mamba situation didn’t help either. I really do love the changes that they made before the transfer window slammed shut though. He may be yet to feature, but Swiss centre-back Burgy is a very good addition, and I am very excited about the arrival of DR Congo midfielder Akolo, who has previously done a good job in the division above this one. His directness and awareness should help make them into a very effective attacking force. Suddenly Paderborn look a lot more capable than they did earlier in the season.

I don’t want anybody to overlook the roles of Terrazzino and Michel either. The latter was injured for a lot of this season but is a natural match-winner at this level; they missed him, and his return has been very important for them in 2021, significantly lessening their over-reliance on in-form Fuhrich. Terrazzino was a great buy too; not a natural finisher, but a very tricky false nine/inside forward type option to help unsettle opposing teams. The only thing Paderborn currently lack (with their new signings in mind) is a natural finisher. Other than that, they’re ready to control games, break teams down, and create good opportunities whilst even defending in a semi-decent way.

The question here is more about what Darmstadt 98 can do to stop their in-form hosts. Now, I like the away team; I really did expect good things from them this season. Instead, they’re now battling relegation, and every point counts with that in mind. The trouble is that they’ve been very unlucky with injuries etc. of late and are now missing a lot of important players. On their day, Darmstadt 98 can beat most Bundesliga 2 teams but I would be surprised if today is that day, given who is out.

I’ve remarked upon the importance of gigantic attacker Seydel before now, and perhaps his importance makes more sense to you all now, if it didn’t make sense before. He’s not simply a target man; indeed, I prefer him in wide positions where he uses his speed and strength to get past opponents. He’s had issues with fitness for two or three years now but I remember how good he was at Holstein Kiel, and it’s been nice to see him mostly stay fit since moving to Darmstadt 98. He’s started to look more like his old self, and although it’s Dursun that scores the lion’s share of the goals for this team, Seydel has played a big part in supporting him. Subsequently, the fact that Seydel is now injured – and has been for a couple of games – is a problem for Darmstadt 98, particularly as their approach is to outscore rather than outsmart opponents.

Dursun and Berko are still available, naturally, as is club legend Kempe, and new signing Campo, so the Darmstadt 98 attack is still reasonable. It lacks a natural flair player like Seydel though, which can make them easier to defend against. It’s their defence that is even more of a mess than usual today though. Defensive midfielder Palsson has had lots of injury problems this season but is available now. However, just as he gets close to his best again, the likes of Mai and Bader join Wittek and Zehnder on the sidelines, not to mention new Swedish defender Isherwood. Darmstadt 98 can’t afford these key absentees at both ends of the pitch. Those players being out totally eclipses the fact that Collins is out for the home team!

Darmstadt 98 are still not a team to take lightly but with few defenders available, and one of their more unpredictable attackers out, I can see a rejuvenated Paderborn 07 picking up all three points today.

Verdict: Paderborn 07 to win at evens.

Wurzburger Kickers vs Heidenheim

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

At this stage of the season, there needs to be enough toing and froing from both teams for me to even consider backing over 3 goals. I tend to find that one team wants it more than another at this stage of the season, you see, and that isn’t the best of bedfellows for an over 3 goals call, I’m afraid. Earlier in the season, things tend to be a lot more open but that’s simply not the case at the moment.

However, I believe that tonight’s match between Wurzburger Kickers and Heidenheim will go over 3 goals. It goes without saying that Kickers are desperate for points right now, given their seemingly eternal battle against relegation. Heidenheim seem very interested in making a late push for promotion too, and with Kleindienst having returned to the club, and a very capable plus mentally strong group already there, who would bet against it? They should have managed it last season, beaten in the play-offs by Werder Bremen despite Heidenheim being the better team over two legs. Heidenheim’s campaign isn’t over yet, that’s for sure!

I can’t make up my mind whether I feel sorry for Kickers or not. I mean, it’s entirely their fault that they’re in this position to begin with, given their ineffectual recruitment drive earlier in the campaign. However, I think they’ve responded to their situation really well in January, and have put in some really good displays in 2021. Poor preparation is annoying, but the ability to react to bad situations properly should not be underestimated. I mean, over the past five games, Kickers have had some gruelling fixtures. Fortuna, Furth, Kiel, Hamburger SV, and Bochum – most of them are pushing for promotion, and the only one that isn’t, should be! I think they’ve given a good account of themselves in three of those games, and in the other two, they were powerless really. They’ve beaten Fortuna and Hamburger SV at home though, two teams that didn’t put in the necessary work-rate to beat them. Heidenheim tend to put more into games than those teams but do struggle on the road so I wouldn’t be so quick to back the away win here.

He may not have scored since joining, but big Austrian forward Maierhofer is a really good addition to this squad; he’s certainly still got it. Defending against him is a nightmare. With Hasek having settled in now, and Dutch winger van la Parra having recently joined too, Kickers suddenly have a much more capable and effective attack. I couldn’t say that any of them are amazing, and most tend to rely on their physical attributes over their natural ability (e.g. Munsy is fast but not a good finisher), but they do cause teams problems nowadays. They were one of the worst teams in the division for a few months, but it’d be harsh to say that they are now.

They’re going to have to score goals tonight though, no matter how obvious that may sound! Keeping Heidenheim out at the moment looks impossible, and that’s especially true for Kickers, who are without a number of defenders here, ranging from Ewerton to Hemmerich to Hansen. Even rotation goalkeeper Giefer is out! Feltscher is the main man now, and he can play, but this still doesn’t look like a team that can deny Heidenheim. Beating them, though? I think that’s a possibility.

Bringing Kleindienst back was both a stroke of genius and a bit of a Football Manager move. You know when you want to buy him because he’s a good player, even though you don’t really have room for him in the squad? Yeah, that’s Heidenheim with Kleindienst. They’ve forced him into the squad, pushing Kuhlwetter further wide, but they’ve had to play a lot more attacking football because of it. Well, that’s not been an issue for the most part because they are indeed a very capable attacking team, Heidenheim. It’s led to them conceding more goals than they should though, which is dangerous.

So far, it’s mostly gone well for them. Alright, in-form St. Pauli beat them but they needed to score four times in order to do so! Aue, Osnabruck, and Fortuna have all lost against Heidenheim lately, and Paderborn were held to a 2-2 draw in their own backyard. I just fear for Heidenheim when they almost inevitably have a poorer patch, if I can put it that way, because they’re not equipped formation-wise to deal with such situations anymore, which wasn’t the case earlier in the season. Kleindienst may be banging the goals in right now but if things go sour, is he or Kuhlwetter going to accept a place on the bench? I doubt it.

Still, that’s another story for another day. As far as tonight goes, I see no reason to doubt Heidenheim’s goal threat here. I think it’s a bad time to face Kickers, but then again, I also think it’s a bad time to face Heidenheim so it’s swings and roundabouts really. Neither team should fear the other too much, both need the win, and both have been good in attack lately. With Heidenheim also missing someone in defence, namely Husing, I see the potential for a high-scoring encounter tonight.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 27/20.

Pacos de Ferreira vs CD Nacional de Madeira

KO: 18:30 (UK time)

A lot of the talk in Portugal is how Sporting are somehow winning the league, and how Braga are second in the table, both of which are rather unusual, all things considered. Not enough folks are talking about how amazingly Pacos de Ferreira have done though!

This is not a good team with good resources, you know? The likes of Vitoria Guimaraes or Portimonense or Rio Ave, or even the Madeira clubs have more scope for a high finish that Pacos. That is how well they’ve done this season. It’s not even a flash in the pan either. They’ve made good signings, and played consistently well all season long. Canada’s Eustaquio is something of a cult hero in Portuguese football for his technique and vision, and I don’t really know how they’ve managed to keep hold of him. Singh has played well, goalkeeper Jordi has been a revelation, and former FC Porto academy graduate Costa has done really well in midfield too.

Everything feels rather serene at Pacos right now. They’re putting in very organised, disciplined displays, and I love it. Boss Pepa has done really well with this group, even adding attacking full-back Rebocho to the squad recently to further boost their options. Mentally, they’re so strong now that nothing seems to faze them. They’ve been unplayable at home this season too – both Porto and Braga have already lost at the Movel. They’re good at taking the lead, and good at holding it. Their resilience, flexibility, and cohesion consistently impresses me, and a standard home display from them tonight would see them beat the islanders; of that I have no doubts.

Nacional are a typical Madeira club; not worth opposing at home, but generally worth opposing away from home. The potential is always there for a club like this to make the UEFA Europa League, but not this season. Much like the last time they were relegated, they’ve not scored enough goals – and a solution for that predicament is nowhere in sight, largely because they’ve not changed any of their bloody forwards since their last relegation! Honestly, the stubbornness of the islanders is unbelievable at times. 

Having Ruben Micael (formerly of Pacos) in midfield has helped to balance things out better with Koziello not setting the world alight since joining in the summer. PAiring him with Luxembourgian wonderkid Thill has helped keep things very slick and mobile in the middle of the park. With Gorre having had a good season too, Nacional have not lacked in a creative way. They’re fast enough and determined enough but simply don’t have a good finisher anywhere in their squad. It’s that simple, I’m afraid.

That defence of theirs is a real problem too. They remind me more of Portimonense than anything nowadays in the sense that you simply can’t trust them to keep teams out. They’re all happy enough to get forward when it suits them, each comfortable in possession, but the amount of times they’re caught out of position or sleeping when they’re supposed to be marking completely explains why they’re in the discussion for relegation. I mean, other than Pedrao, most of the defenders aren’t even close enough to those they’re supposed to be marking to even foul them if they do get away! On one hand, I do enjoy the attacking style that Nacional have adopted but on the other hand, they’re incredibly naive – and that should cost them tonight.

At 4/5, it’s a home win for me, especially Nacional having failed to win here in six years now, and entering the game on the back of three consecutive defeats. 

Verdict: Pacos de Ferreira to win at 4/5.