TFT Issue 3365!

Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC

KO: 06:05 (UK time)

When these two teams met a few weeks back, it ended 0-0. By no means was it a drab 0-0, but it was one where the two teams worked tirelessly to stop one another. Not many teams have kept Roar as quiet as Sydney did on the day, although at the same time I would argue that Roar kept themselves quiet with some strange substitutions and typically wayward finishing from Wenzel-Halls (although he was definitely one of their best players on the day). It could be argued that Sydney would have won it if not for the heroics of Young between the sticks too. I still think a draw was a fair outcome on the day though.

Since then, I think these two teams have only further convinced me that they’ll draw again when they meet in Brisbane today. Now that Wenzel-Halls has remembered he’s a crap finisher, Champness is struggling to play consistently well, and Mebrahtu is yet to adjust, the goal-scoring onus naturally rests squarely with veteran striker McDonald, as he’s the best they’ve got at it. The trouble is that he’s done his hamstring so he won’t be playing today, nor for another fortnight or more. At this moment in time, now that the form guide has levelled out, that’s a problem because Roar aren’t scoring enough goals.

I thought they looked a bit leggy in Perth last time out but then again, Glory will do that to a team nowadays. It was the same story against Macarthur FC and Newcastle Jets, though – lots of ball, little penetration. It was easier to penetrate Sydney FC, in a way, because they left space for the pacier Roar forwards to get in on the action – but then they all remembered that they’ve not got a good finisher other than McDonald. The bottom line is that it’s now four games played, and just one goal scored – and they deserve that record for what they’ve done.

Roar are not playing badly, for clarity. They’re still really hard to break down because of their stubborn defending, their energy in midfield, and their intelligent pressing game. Any team that pushes out against them needs quick, confident passers, and fast defenders – and I can’t think of a single A-League team that fits that bill. However, teams that sit back and wait for Roar to try and make things happen will usually get the best of them in that sense. They may not score at the other end but they know it’ll frustrate Roar, and I believe that’s precisely what Corica will instruct his boys to do today because it simply makes sense. I mean, Sydney struggle to keep up with most teams as it is, tiring themselves out by the seventy minute mark with alarming regularity, so why they’d be insane enough to engage in a high-energy game against the team with the fittest players in the A-League, I don’t know. I may not rate Corica all that highly as a manager, but he’s not stupid enouh to do that.

Therefore, I believe that Sydney will have the tactical edge here. When they sit back, they tend to defend quite well. Another reason I think they’ll do that is because defensive midfielder Retre is out, and they don’t want to give Danzaki etc. the freedom of midfield. No, I expect Brattan to slot back into the team against the club where he made his name, and he should help them control this game whilst also preventing some counters. Now that they’ve got striker Bobo fit, it should be a matter of outwaiting teams for Sydney, really. They can do that, and it makes sense to play that way. They couldn’t do that pre-Bobo because they had no recognised striker on the pitch but now they can.

I think the form guide of Sydney’s is a tad harsh at the moment. Tactically, I thought they were stupid in Melbourne; you either press City, or you defend deep; you can’t do neither – but Sydney did neither. They could have – and should have – beaten Roar in the reversal of this fixture, and the Macarthur FC result could have gone either way, just like their last meeting. They’ve not been horrendous though; just missed players that they could have done with in the squad. And they also could do with a better manager, but that’s not going to happen anytime soon. I think Sydney have shown enough lately to ensure that they control this game in Brisbane, and as long as the Roar press doesn’t hurt them too much, they should probably edge the encounter.

However, the 1×2 market does nothing for me here. Roar aren’t clinical enough to be trusted right now, and Sydney are playing better than the charts suggest. Backing under 2.5 goals at 11/10 makes sense to me though, as whichever team takes the lead (if either) should really look to hold it, and both are capable of playing well in that sense. 

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Erzgebirge Aue vs Hannover 96 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

There are a couple of absentees for Hannover 96 today which I’m not delighted about. Sulejmani and Bijol are their names, the former of which is a good creator, and the latter of which has been a very good screener for the back four since joining. Against a harder team, I believe they’d both be missed, especially Bijol.

However, this is a good time to travel to Aue, whom Hannover 96 are considerably better than. I think the visitors have played well enough lately to be trusted to win it too. The form guide shows they’re without a win in three games now, but they’ve faced three of the division’s better teams, namely Fortuna, Paderborn, and Furth. I can’t say I’m surprised that they’ve not won those games. Instead, I’m far more impressed that they’ve beaten the likes of Osnabruck and Braunschweig in previous weeks. Why, when they’re both poor teams? Simple – Hannover 96 are in this mess because they’ve not worked hard enough, not because they don’t have quality players. Beating Braunschweig and Osnabruck requires a lot of tenacity and patience, and they had it. If they can play like that again in Aue, they’ll win.

I know Hannover 96 have lofty goals, and that a squad like theirs should really be pushing for promotion, but I still think they’ve done well in addressing their weaknesses. Bringing in Bijol has helped them defend better, for example, and they’ve even learned how to play without Falette in the back four, which is very impressive. Putting Hult and Muroya as full-backs has aided their attacking game considerably, and adding Kaiser and Muslija to their midfield has really lessened their dependence on Haraguchi. Furthermore, forward Ducksch is in good form, and Weydandt is there if they need an even bigger target man, whilst Twumasi brings speed to their attack.

What they’ve got is not perfect, but it’s functioning better than it has in years. Subsequently, Hannover 96 are actually quite good now. Not good enough to be promoted this season, I feel, but possibly next season with one or two more signings. Anyway, the point is that they’ve now ascended to a level whereby I feel I can trust them again. Mentally, they’re in a much better place, and now that they’re considerably more effective at both ends of the pitch, the away win looks really appealing to me today.

It helps that they’re playing Aue, really, a very predictable team. Every season, it’s the same for them – big forwards that don’t finish very well, a team that prioritises work-rate over quality, and a promising start usually followed by a disappointing end to the season. It’s really simple to understand what they bring to each game, Aue, and yet it never ceases to amaze me just how many teams continue to underestimate them. They may lack quality, Aue, but if you don’t work as hard as they do, then chances are good that you won’t win.

I mean, they’ve got Schuster as a manager, who has been around for ages now – that in itself is a weapon at this level. He knows how to get the best out of his players, hence Strauss coming to prominence this season from the relative obscurity of last season. He’s gotten plenty out of Hochscheidt over the years, who is something of a talisman for them now, and he’s got a really tough defence that love to get stuck into challenges. This is an annoying team to face, basically – nothing more than that.

In the past, Hannover 96 would have struggled with teams like these. My belief is that they’ve now progressed enough to win matches of this nature. The absence of Samson at the back for the home team – as well as the continued absence of Cacutalua and defensive midfielder Riese – should afford Hannover 96 more than enough chances to win this one, and at 11/10, I’m happy to back them to win a match that they should win on most days of the week.

Verdict: Hannover 96 to win at 11/10.

Karlsruher SC vs St. Pauli 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I’m really looking forward to this game, probably more than any other today. That’s me cursing it to be a 0-0, isn’t it?

All logic points to this being a terrific spectacle though. I daresay folks will be all over the visitors here, and given their recent form, I couldn’t blame them. Burgstaller has really inspired this team, and they look like nothing will faze them at the moment, especially after their derby win earlier this week. However, all good runs must come to an end, and this is a tough away game. I’m just not sold on the idea that St. Pauli will lightly beat Karlsruher SC today, I’m afraid. I’m far more confident in backing them to upset a lazy team like Hamburger SV rather than an energetic, tenacious team like today’s hosts.

If you’re set on the 1×2 market here, I think you have to take a step back and evaluate the two teams. Are St. Pauli really better than Karlsruher SC? Not for my money. I think they’ve got a couple of players that belong in the division above, which is two more than their hosts, but attack is the only area they’re stronger in. They’re more confident, it’s true, and I entirely agree with the notion of them being favourites to win this game. However, I think they’ll have to move heaven and earth in order to manage it against a very motivated, feisty team that fears no Bundesliga 2 outfit.

I was disappointed with Karlsruher SC against Nurnberg. Imagine not being able to score against a team that doesn’t work hard! They redeemed themselves with a win at Darmstadt 98 though, who looked a bit lost without Seydel, not that it stopped them from picking up a vital three points in Paderborn last night! Karlsruher SC are never down for long though. Mentally, there aren’t many teams at this level tougher than they are, and it’s hard to be that way for the amount of time this substantial club has spent languishing in Germany’s lower leagues. In their heads, they’re ready to return, but on the pitch they need to do more before I take them seriously as promotion candidates.

In the meantime though, they’re a very annoying side to face. Hofmann does a terrific job up front, and he’s very well supported by Gueye, Batmaz, Wanitzek, Gondorf etc. As handy as a big target man is, it’s the midfield of Karlsruher SC that has really stood up to be counted this season – that’s what I’ve liked the most. Kyoung-rok, Goller, Wanitzek, Lorenz, and Gondorf have all been phenomenal at both getting forward and getting back, keeping the team flexible and keeping them honest with regard to work-rate. I may not trust them to keep teams out because of their attacking nature, but I do trust them to score goals – and I believe they will today against a leaky St. Pauli defence.

The Hamburg club are so good in front of goal at the moment, though, that I honestly couldn’t blame any of you for taking your chances on the visitors, much as though I am sceptical of this run lasting much longer. Following his injury, Burgstaller has had the effect on St. Pauli that I thought he’d have when they first signed him because he’s too good for this level – and yet not really able to cut the mustard at Bundesliga level. One of those type players, you know? The Austrian has been phenomenal but he couldn’t do it without the tenacious team around him. St. Pauli seldom lack runners; that’s one thing I can never accuse them of. This is not a lazy team, unlike their neighbours!

No, Burgstaller is merely the glue for a somewhat capable team that were lacking in a bit of composure and experience. Marmoush joined in January, not far off the time when Burgstaller returned from injury, and he’s been very effective up front, using his speed well. Big Danish forward Makienok has done well when called upon, not that he’s a natural goal-scorer, and Kyereh has weighed in with the odd goal too. With Dittgen and Zalazar excelling in midfield, I can’t help but wish that Miyaichi was fit because they’d have an attack good enough to give them a shot at promotion, even if their defence ultimately made it impossible.

There’s a lot of quality in the St. Pauli attack, basically, and I doubt Karlsruher SC will be able to stop them today. That said, I can’t really envision the visitors containing their hosts either. In short, we’re surely in for an entertaining game between two teams with nothing to lose and everything to gain, hence my pick of over 3 goals at 53/50.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 53/50.

Sheffield United vs Southampton

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

For Sheffield United, each match of late seems to go the same way. They work their socks off, do everything possible to score, miss most of their chances, and concede when their opponents take theirs better. Defending is what Sheffield United are best at but there’s no scope for it to show right now because their situation is beyond desperate, and only wins count for them now; draws are of no use. Therefore, they’re gradually being forced to play a style that does not cater to their strengths, which is not ideal.

On top of the above, Sheffield United are still without lots of important players, especially Norwegian midfielder Berge, but mostly in defence. For clarity, last season, it was Stevens, Baldock, O’Connell, and Egan in front of Henderson that made The Blades so hard to beat. This season, Henderson has gone, and has been replaced by Ramsdale. I like Ramsdale a lot, but he’s not coped well with the intense scrutiny and pressure since his move, which has led some fans to criticising him. O’Connell has missed most of the season through injury too, and both Stevens and Egan have had time on the sidelines too, forcing Ampadu, Bogle, and Jagielka into the eleven at different stages.

For today’s game, Sheffield United are without Jagielka, Basham, Egan, Bogle, Berge, Robinson, and O’Connell, and based on what I’ve said in the above paragraph, I’m sure you can identify that that’s pretty much all of Sheffield United’s defence that are now out, as well as their best midfielder. I know that Burke has his moments, flying down the flank, and some of Fleck’s passing is terrific. I know that few forwards work harder than Ireland’s Mcgoldrick, and that Sharp’s movement is top-drawer – and I doubt there’s a physical battle that McBurnie would ever shy away from. These are not bad players; it’s just that they’re playing in a very high division and there’s not enough quality around them to help out, and there’s certainly not enough of anything in defence right now.

Therefore, although Sheffield United aren’t getting battered any longer, they’re not hurting teams either. Weirdly, I think it’d only take a couple of wins to get that confidence back, and maybe they’d have a shot at staying up. Who knows – the win over Villa last time out might just prove to be the catalyst; but I doubt it. Facing Villa without Grealish is a very different prospect, and they capitalised upon it. Southampton won’t be as easy to pin down today, I’m afraid. Sheffield United might be more confident here, and I am damn sure that they won’t take this game lying down, but without almost all of their defenders, I can’t see a happy ending for them.

Southampton themselves are hardly in the form of their lives at the moment but then again, I’d argue that they’ve had harder games. I also think that they’ve played well in those games but haven’t taken their chances well enough, a little like Sheffield United themselves. The difference is that Southampton can usually score against teams of Sheffield United’s level, and there’s a big difference between trying to score against Ancelotti’s Everton, or trying to score against the cellar dwellers that are pushing out to try and win games.

At times, I think that both Adams and Ings have excelled in attack for The Saints this season. I agreed with Hasenhuttl’s call to bring in Minamino to liven up their attack though, who may even return from injury today. It was a bit too much about pace before the Japanese international joined; now there’s more skill, making them harder to anticipate. With options like Armstrong, Redmond, and Djenepo for Ward-Prowse to pick out, Southampton are seldom far away from hurting teams with their speed – but they do need said teams to come at them. Sheffield United must come at them, which again paves the way for Southampton to score in this game.

For me, the bigger question is whether Southampton can hold it or not. They may not be great finishers, Sheffield United, but they certainly do ask defenders a lot of questions via their aerial prowess and intelligent movement. Southampton are still without their controller too, namely Romeu. Still, I think they look better with Vestergaard playing alongside Bednarek, the latter of which has arguably been Southampton’s best player this season. Those two keep things in order, and if they can do their job today, then I trust Southampton to win this match because what little remains of Sheffield United’s defence should not be capable of denying a Premier League team.

Therefore, it’s an away win at evens for me. 

Verdict: Southampton to win at evens.