TFT Issue 3366!

Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory 

KO: 05:05 (UK time)

I’m always a tad wary of opposing a team that has recently come into some luck, as Phoenix did. They certainly deserved more luck in the preceding few weeks, producing good displays without any joy. Ironically enough, they didn’t play particularly well against the Jets but they won. Don’t get me wrong – considering the pressure their defence was under without DeVere on the park, I thought they held their own well. A deflected shot from Ball, and a long-range effort from Waine for which the Jets defence and goalkeeper were equally as culpable, has done nothing to convince me that Phoenix can now beat Glory though, even at ‘home’ in Wollongong.

The good news for Phoenix this week was that they announced the re-signing of English centre-back Steven Taylor. It made me wonder why they let him go to begin with, but that’s another story. He won’t need any integration into this squad; he knew it inside out in the recent past, and did a very good job alongside DeVere. However, what he will need is a quarantine period, which means he can’t make his second debut for The Yellow Fever for at least another fortnight – and that’s assuming he’s in decent condition, which I have no idea about. So, to put it bluntly, things are still the same now as they were last week with Phoenix struggling for defenders.

I actually like Phoenix a lot, you know? I think they’ve got a seriously underrated manager, who really surprised me by doing as well as he did in replacing Rudan, who left to join new franchise Western United. Tactically, Phoenix are one of the best teams in the A-League. The only thing they lack is a certain amount of quality, and this season, that’s been evident in both defence and attack. The new partnership at the back between Laws and DeVere has promise but Laws’ injury problems and DeVere’s absence has naturally halted that growth. Phoenix do not have a defensive leader without DeVere. 

They’ve also struggled in attack though, and that’s arguably more pressing. You see, I have no issue with Ball running the channels like he does because he’s brilliant at it – but he’s not a natural goal-scorer. Sotirio’s a fast, capable dribbler with shocking decision-making – and he’s injured anyway. Waine is not ready for this level. Muratovic has his moments but needs someone to learn from. The signing of Ngoy is one of sheer desperation because of a lack of threat. Hemed was supposed to be the main man for them in attack this season but the more I see him, lumbering around up front, the more confused I become because he still doesn’t seem to have any kind of connection with his teammates. 

Another issue that’s occurred is the passing from deeper midfield roles. I think they’ve got some terrific engines in that area, Phoenix, but they really are missing Steinmann’s distribution. Ahead of them, Devlin and Davila have both been very good this season, particularly the former, but they’re still not getting the ball at the right time and at the right speed so it’s slowing Phoenix down more than usual, and without speed, they look a bit easier to defend against. These are not major, unsolvable problems for Phoenix – but they are problems, and they are preventing them stringing together a positive run. I think the midfield issue will sort itself in due course; the right folks are in those positions for it to happen authentically. Their defending is a concern though, especially considering how much they rely upon it, and not many teams will struggle to create chances like the Jets did last time out. And as for their attack – it’s just not one I can trust to score goals other than against teams with very high defensive lines.

It may well transpire that Glory are the perfect team for Phoenix to face in that regard because Garcia’s style is a lot more attack-minded than his predecessor was. That’s led to them conceding goals on a regular basis. I appreciate that it’s worse now than it will be when they get Langkamp/Ota playing more often, but this is still an attacking team, and they’re still going to concede goals because of it. This is not a fast defence, and nor is it one with lots of cohesion either. That, fused with backup goalkeeper Velaphi seemingly having replaced Reddy as number one has led to Glory being a bit too easy to score against.

However, Garcia has transformed Glory into a goal-scoring machine, and I really don’t think any team in Australia is better-equipped to score goals than they are right now, and they’ll be even better when Ikonomidis returns in a week or two after a long time out. Armiento has done brilliantly in midfield this season, as has Stynes, both of which have supported the Glory attacks really well, the former making especially intelligent late runs into the box. I’ve been surprised that target man D’Agostino has had the nod over Keogh up front but his goals return and the chances he creates mean that decision is more than justified, especially with his Irish understudy yet to bag since returning to Perth.

Of course, then you’ve got the class acts; the wizards of the Glory attack, namely Castro – who is essentially unplayable at this level – and Uruguayan striker Fornaroli, who is very good at most things, and in lethal form at the moment. Having such an attack makes Glory not only mobile and strong, but also clever and clinical. In other words, it’s not hard to see why Garcia is happy for his team to take their chances by playing attacking football, almost throwing down a gauntlet for opponents to try and outscore them. Some have managed it this season, and fair play to them for that. I don’t see Phoenix being one of those teams though, not with their attack as it currently is.

With that in mind, backing Glory to win with draw no bet at evens suits me just fine here as I’ve no idea why they’ve been made underdogs for this fixture. 

Verdict: Perth Glory to win with draw no bet at evens.

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Nurnberg

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

Germany in general has disappointed me this weekend; let’s see if the match in Dusseldorf goes as it should, shall we?

Fortuna are not the most consistent of teams, admittedly. If they were, they’d be in the promotion race with a squad like theirs – but they’re not. They may make a late break for a play-off spot, I suppose, given Hamburger SV’s impending implosion and Greuther Furth’s inability to play as favourites. I still doubt it’d be Fortuna that breaks up that party, though – as I said above, just not consistent enough, even though the squad is not only more than good enough to do so, but actually good enough to survive in the Bundesliga too. Only bad luck sent them down last season, after all.

Midfielder Appelkamp may still be out for Fortuna but their other ‘heavies’ are all available. I don’t know if Rosler will roll with Kownacki or Hennings up front today but with the Pole barely remembering what a goal frame looks like, and Hennings at least able to contribute to general build-up even if he’s not scoring goals, I’d have to assume it’d be the latter. With Sobottka, Peterson etc. in midfield, Fortuna will create chances, as they always do. It’s their defending that bothers me, and not just because of their actual defenders  but more the general attitude in the squad when it comes to getting back.

In the division above, especially in the second-half of the season, I thought Fortuna put in some really good shifts. They showed how much they cared. However, at this level, it’s hard to recall times when they’ve done the same, which is really disappointing. Even when they’re winning nowadays, it’s still generally too reliant on luck and circumstances than anything else. Their win against Hannover 96, for example, can only be described as ‘tumultuous’ – and bear in mind that the visitors were missing their best forwards that 3-2 defeat! 

Fortuna just don’t do enough to stop teams, in a nutshell. That’s led to me being very cautious when I back them to win games because they essentially go with the flow as opposed to putting up the odd dam here and there. Against Hannover 96, it ended up going in their favour but against Heidenheim, it went in the opposite direction. Although part of me agrees with their approach of always wanting to attack, it should be clear to Rosler by now that his forwards, for whatever reason, have stopped being clinical, and thus a tactical switch might be beneficial. Still, he’s not going to change, and they’re not going to change, so more heart attack madness will no doubt ensue today.

Fortuna should win the game either way, though. They might even come out of this game looking like they’re brilliant because an opponent like Nurnberg really, really suits them. The visitors, much like Fortuna, are a lot better than they look. The problem Nurnberg have that Fortuna usually don’t is that they can’t be arsed attacking either. When they put their minds to it, much like poor Schaffler all by himself up top, they’re rather good. It’s just that that doesn’t happen very often, and I would be surprised if it happened today too.

Nurnberg almost got relegated last season, despite having only just been relegated from the Bundesliga. They had a good squad at the time; they have an even better one now. It doesn’t seem to matter, though, because it never lasts. At some point, they simply lose interest in performing as a unit. This team is so cautious and individual-based that they weren’t even able to break Braunschweig down at home last time out, a team that only really has tenacity. There are players in this squad I like but they’re literally trying to do it by themselves, and that seldom ends well for Nurnberg.

Cards on the table – the ones in this squad that give a shit, and that actually have the capacity to make a difference, are Schaffler, Hack, Daehli, Geis, and Nurnberger. Note that none of them are defenders, although Nurnberger generally plays more defensively in midfield. What you have there is a striker, a drifting creator, and central midfielders. The problem with that is that there’s not enough determination out wide for them to press teams properly, so they tend to not bother, and there’s not enough intent from the attacking players to get back and defend. It feels a very disjointed group, basically.

They have their moments, it’s true, but I doubt even the return of Lohkemper will change much for them today, or in any other game this season. They’d better pray that they’re not involved in a relegation battle because they are not mentally strong enough to come out of it alive; I still don’t know how they survived the play-off last season other than blind luck in the second leg. They certainly don’t have the mentality for an average Bundesliga 2 fixture, and that’s especially true with Hack still out. On paper, they’re good enough to trouble Fortuna; in reality, they’ll do well to leave without conceding two or three in Dusseldorf.

Verdict: Fortuna Dusseldorf to win at 9/10.

FC Midtjylland vs AGF

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

I’ve not been blown away by FC Midtjylland in 2021. I think it’s fair to say that I like them more than any other Danish team because of the effort they put in versus the football they try to play, but they’ve not impressed me in this calendar year. Things have felt a little forced, they’ve looked a shade rusty, and that’s led to some underwhelming displays. 

They lost in their last match actually, going down 2-0 against Lyngby. Ironically though, I’m more concerned about their display in the win over AC Horsens than I am about losing at Lyngby. Lyngby have a way of annoying teams with their incessant attacking intent, and unless every player is on their “A” game on the day, that away game can be a lot harder than it looks. FC Midtjylland lost their heads, lost two men, and then lost the game last time out; it can happen. That display against AC Horsens was poor, though – they were only inches away from drawing it.

Despite that though, they generally just keep winning. They’ve beaten Brondby, they’ve beaten Aalborg BK, and they’ve beaten OB and Randers too, most of which was away from home, and they’ve almost never conceded along the way. To think that they’re doing that when they’re not at their best is mind-blowing, really – Denmark hasn’t seen consistency like this in years, which is why I think they’ll win the Superligaen title – again. They’re a highly efficient machine, FC Midtjylland, as good with the ball as without it, and year upon year they simply keep growing the size of their squad, making them capable of playing on multiple levels at once.

Sviatchenko has whipped their defence into shape, even with Hoegh still out of the equation, who was brought back to the club with the intent of making him a regular. Paulinho has done well since returning from Brazil, although he won’t be playing today through suspension. Scholz can play, and Cools returns today, so I’’m content that FC Midtjylland’s defence is in good enough shape ahead of the AGF visit. It’s the FC Midtjylland midfield that blows me away though. Bringing Sisto back is one thing, and getting him close to his best again is another, but the depth they have is just staggering.

Sisto doesn’t even need to start in order for this team to function because Evander is the one running the show nowadays. It’s in no small part down to the Brazilian that winger Dreyer’s performances have been far more effective this season, and the same can be said of Mabil. With Cajuste doing a sterling job in front of the back four, and Icelandic wonderkid Anderson getting forward, FC Midtjylland are fully loaded at all times. That’s why I’m not concerned about their various absentees in midfield today; they’ve got the depth required to deal with it. My only real concern for today’s hosts is their attack, which still lacks a finisher. With a midfield like this though, and a decent enough target man up front, FC Midtjylland score goals – and they then control games, and secure the points. It’s simple, but it’s effective – and it should work again today too.

AGF have a good record in Herning, and they’ll arrive with plenty of confidence today too, despite defeat against FC Nordsjaelland last time out. That’s because boss Nielsen has done a really good job of turning them into an industrious, efficient, and frankly dangerous Superligaen outfit. They’re not in a position whereby they can push for silverware, but they can certainly cause problems on their day, particularly in Aarhus. There are some really good individuals in this squad, not least poacher Mortensen, who just gets better with age.

The problem I have with AGF at the moment is their defence though. Backman being out is nothing new; he’s played in, what – three games this season? That doesn’t mean he’s not missed though. This team still doesn’t convince at the back without him, whether they win or not, so the fact that Tingager is also out yet again, as is new signing Sanneh, is a problem. AGF do not have the depth to deal with this many absentees at the back. Are they really going to contain the most ruthless team in Denmark with so many defenders out? I doubt it, especially not as AGF struggle more than most against players that favour running at markers, of which FC Midtjylland have plenty.

I suspect the only real option AGF have here is to attempt to outscore their hosts. That approach has worked in the past, it’s true, but last time it only worked when FC Midtjylland had all but won the title anyway, and the time before happened when their hosts were reduced to ten men. Take nothing away from their ballsy displays, but let’s just say that circumstances helped them out. I’m not sure that approach would work today though. I think they’d need incredibly mature displays from Gronbaek and Thorsteinsson were that to happen.

I do think that AGF are progressing, and the arrival of tricky Australian creator Arzani is an example of such. They are moving up in the Danish hierarchy, and they’re harder to beat now than they have been in ages. I still don’t think that they can hold a candle to their ruthless hosts though, and especially not when they’re without as many defenders as they are. One of the main reasons FC Midtjylland win the Superligaen so often nowadays is because of their ability to stay focused when they need it the most – like now. Whether they play well or not, I simply expect them to win matches of this nature.

Therefore, at 19/20, I cannot possibly overlook the value in the home win.

Verdict: FC Midtjylland to win at 19/20.

HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik 

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

I find the odds on this particular Faroese opener a little hard to grasp. Sure, the reigning Betrideildin champions HB Torshavn had to change manager per-season, and it’s a sign of how far Faroese football has progressed that they were able to lure Danish manager Dal in to do the job, who previously managed AC Horsens in the Danish Superligaen. It’s not like this squad has been ripped apart pre-season, though. It’s still the same, top-drawer outfit that dominated the Faroe Islands last season; nothing has changed substantially enough to explain the odds on the home win here.

Nygaard was one of two to leave HB Torshavn for Raufoss in Norway, and he was excellent for them last season. Why should that bother HB Torshavn, though? They’ve replaced him with Przybylski, who lit up the division with bitter rivals B36 Torshavn last season; problem solved! Indeed, the reigning champions also prised talented youngster Radosavljevic away from their neighbours too. I figured it was more of a long-term investment but his starting berth in the Super Cup last week makes me wonder if they’ll chuck him in at the deep end.

Speaking of the Super Cup, does anybody remember what happened in it? Of course not; you’re not maniacs that watch the Faroese competitions! I, however, am a hand-on-heart maniac that will watch football games like that, and I can tell you that HB Torshavn won the game 3-1, beating today’s opponents in it. The game was played in Torshavn, to be fair, but they were not technically at home, although Torsvollur is not an alien ground to HB Torshavn by any stretch of the imagination, keeping in mind where they played during their own stadium’s renovation!

The only player I’ve not heard anything about pre-season is Dalbud so I’ve no idea if he’s still with HB Torshavn, or if he’s moved on/hung up his boots. He was a good threat in the air but by no means paramount to what HB Torshavn do, so I’m not that concerned either. The foundation of the team has remained intact with Dahl and Jakobsen still in attack, Justinussen supporting (how he’s not moved on, I’ll never know – far too good for this level), Joensen, Hansen, Petersen, and I Soylu in midfield, whilst there’s Wardum, Johansen, and Davidsen in defence. It’s a great squad, and they’ll be competing for the title again this season.

Opponents NSI Runavik are mostly unchanged this season too, although the players they have lost were pretty big ones, namely Benjaminsen (Hodd, Norway) and Christjansen, their Danish star of the second-half of last season. Both were integral in midfield, and despite Jensen joining from HB Torshavn, I’m not convinced that they’ll be alright without them. I only really felt that NSI Runavik came to life after Christjansen joined last season; before that they were just a team with some very promising youngsters in midfield, and one absolutely lethal striker in Klaemint Olsen. I fear they’ll revert back to that team unless newcomer Jakobsen steps up to the plate.

Well, I say ‘fear’ – they’re still one of the top four teams in the country, you know? It’s not going to send them spiralling downward. Who knows – maybe another new arrival (Trenskow) can make the difference. I’ve not seen him play so I can’t comment on how good he is/isn’t. The Danish imports do tend to do well though, and he’s joined a good squad with a solid foundation, so why not? Time will tell, I suppose. NSI Runavik very much remain a top four team though, and I’m confident that they won’t embarrass themselves today with that in mind.

That said, I do think that they’ll lose. HB Torshavn are too good, both mentally and physically, and they’re better at creating chances. I think the timing of this fixture favours the home team, and that NSI Runavik are just a touch out of their depth right now. For me, the home win at 9/10 is worth taking.

Verdict: HB Torshavn to win at 9/10.

Luzern vs St. Gallen

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

It’s four games unbeaten now for Luzern. When I said that I liked what they’d done pre-season, it was more with the idea that they’d win more often but not really stop losing too, you know? They’re a very top-heavy team now, the lakesiders, so consistency wasn’t really what I had in mind for them. Still, this can only be a positive, and they’ve put in some good shifts along the way so fair play to them, even taking points off high-flying Young Boys Bern a week or two back!

My theory pertaining to today’s game is the same as it always is when I back Luzern to win; I think that they’re facing a team they can outscore, not outsmart. For my money, St. Gallen are actually the smarter team but without a goal threat, they’re not a team that I take as seriously as I probably should. At least with Luzern I know what I’m getting, week in, week out. They’re one of the few Swiss teams around at the moment that is actually good to watch, and for the money they’ve pumped into their squad this season, that’s the least they can do.

Quite where that money has come from, I genuinely have no idea. The last I heard was that Luzern were cutting costs and not spending. Admittedly, that was some years ago now but I’ve not heard anything to suggest they’re back in the business of spending money against. Perhaps they, like Lausanne Sport, have been taken over by a group of wealthy Swiss businessmen. Whatever the case may be, Luzern have been bringing in really good players, and that’s not stopped in 2021. I was excited enough by Ugrinic and Sorgic coming back, never mind Schaub, Tasar, and Frydek signing!

Now, in 2021, they’ve brought in Wehrmann from Feyenoord Rotterdam, who played in the Eredivisie. The idea is to help the defenders by sticking him as a deeper lying midfielder, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they’ve done as well as they have since the youngster joined. They still have weaknesses, Luzern, particularly at the back, where even their defenders are better at scoring goals than keeping opponents away from their goal! Their attack is seriously mobile and dangerous right now though. With the confidence flowing, and lots of quality on their books, I just can’t doubt Luzern, even against a St. Gallen side that should be too smart for them.

St. Gallen are not far away from being a good team themselves, really. Anyone who watched them last season knows that! Bizarrely, their attack has dissipated this season though, which is still beyond my comprehension. I know they lost Itten and Demirovic, and that there’d be some kind of teething process to take place whilst they sourced and integrated replacements. I had no problem with them bringing Kamberi in to do it, nor the signing of Gonzalez just over a year ago, who was signed in advance of losing said players with the idea that he’d get an opportunity to prove himself at a higher level after being stuck in academies for a while. Kamberi never settled though, and Gonzalez still isn’t good enough to get into the team, which again, is weird.

Youan joined too; hasn’t convinced. Guillemenot and Ruiz have their moments, as does Babic, but none of them have been remotely clinical this season. The only one of them I trust to be good in front of goal is Spanish midfielder Quintilla, and he’s had a quiet season, at least by his own lofty standards. Duah has stepped up really well but that’s no long-term solution; he’s ok, but not great. Even Stillhart has bagged three and he’s a defensive midfielder! They’re still passing their way around teams well, St. Gallen – a bit like Young Boys Bern at times – but without finding the net, they’re not going to win games.

From their past three games, have only scored one goal against Vaduz of any note. I’m quite happy to discount the three they bagged against FC Basel, which was against an injury-ravaged side that had almost no defenders available, and even then it took them until the 70th minute before they bagged a second (from the penalty spot!) because they find it hard to score goals. I like them, and again, I think they can be a good side with a couple of attacking signings, but until they come about, I can’t take them seriously against a team like Luzern, who are positively loaded with attacking talent.

Therefore, at 23/20, I’ll take my chances on the home win here.

Verdict: Luzern to win at 23/20.

Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

Derbies are derbies, folks. You all know they can be annoying affairs. Truth be told, if this game wasn’t as important for the Bundesliga table as it is (for both teams), I would probably leave it because Austria Vienna can annoy Rapid Vienna on a good day.

However, the problem the home team has is that they risk embarrassing themselves by missing out on a top six spot if they don’t win this game. There are three games remaining, and as things currently stand, Austria Vienna are set to slide into the bottom six group with little to play for, and yet another example of their dwindling status in Austrian football on their minds. It’s not as if they can simply ‘sacrifice’ this derby either, as their other two games will be against Sturm Graz (away) and Wolfsberger AC (home) so there are no easy games left. That makes this match one that they’ve really got to win.

The above means Austria Vienna have got to be more than just their counterattacking selves here, and I like that visual because when they push out, they concede. If teams are stupid enough to attack them with no care for defending then they’ll get burnt, but teams that sit and wait for Austria Vienna can do a lot of damage. The smaller Bundesliga teams this season have generally fallen foul of Austria Vienna’s approach, but the bigger teams have almost always beaten them convincingly because they know how to deal with such – and so do Rapid Vienna.

On paper, this is not a good Austria Vienna team. It’s arguably the most industrious team they’ve had for a while, and they sure can motor on breaks, but there’s not a great deal of quality, which is why boss Stoger has had to generally try to coach them to outsmart teams. The fact that they’ve just signed Djuricin, who genuinely hasn’t played a good game of football in two years now, tells you that folks are not exactly queuing around the block to join them either. The rule for big teams is simple enough, really – sit on Grunwald, and watch Austria Vienna struggle to distribute the ball properly without him. Pull that defence forward, and watch it fall apart – and that’s precisely what I expect Rapid Vienna to do to them today.

Rapid Vienna themselves have been the butt of many Austrian jokes for a few years now. Salzburg have completely ruled the roost in Austria for a lot of years now, and even the likes of LASK and Wolfsberger AC have put in better title tilts than they have – until now. They’ve had a lot of problems behind the scenes at this club but now things are rather harmonious. I don’t know what to attribute that to; perhaps it’s just a gradual accumulation of players being on the same page, and letting a good manager like Kuhbauer simply get on with his job without rashly sacking him. Whatever the case may be, Rapid Vienna are currently the best that I’ve seen them in years.

I can’t always say that Rapid Vienna are perfect in their control of matches in the Bundesliga, but what I can say is that they’re now mentally strong enough to deal with whatever mistakes crop up. I remember watching them beat St. Polten back in January and despite making more mistakes than a big team should in defence, they still did more than enough to win the game. Seeing Rapid Vienna with mental strength and conviction really does take me back a lot of years – that’s how long it’s been since they were strong enough upstairs to trouble teams. Everybody in their squad looks confident too, and I love it.

I think Rapid Vienna have had better squads than this, ironically. On paper, it’s really not much to look at when compared to previous versions. However, this squad functions better as a team than those before it, and that’s the clincher. Kara, Arase, Fountas, and Kitagawa in attack, for example, would most likely fail elsewhere – but they’re onto something good here, and it suits them, so they’re all shining, enough so to keep prolific Bundesliga poacher Alar out of the squad. Even teenager Demir has contributed a lot in attack this season! 

For me, it’s the Rapid Vienna midfield that is impressive. Knasmuller has been phenomenal this season, as has Grahovac, and Schick has restored a balance to it not seen in ages. You have to keep in mind that Szanto and Ljubicic are supposed to be the heartbeat of that midfield but neither of them have played much this season; the Hungarian hasn’t even played a single match. There’s just a real sense of togetherness and resilience about Rapid Vienna that I really like right now, enough so to trust them to win a big derby match. Mentally, I think they’re ready for it, and they’re certainly the better team – and they can’t afford to give Salzburg an inch in the title race.

With both teams needing the points, I think it’ll come down to which team has the greater bottle – and for my money, that’s not even a contest; it’s got to be Rapid Vienna. 

Verdict: Rapid Vienna to win at 9/10.

Spartak Moscow vs FK Krasnodar 

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

For the first time in ages, I feel a bit sorry for Spartak Moscow. They’ve finally got a manager in – Tedesco – that has made the team a lot better, and the club have finally not sacked him too soon, and then he decides to leave at the end of the season anyway. The German media speculate that he’s next in line to take over at Schalke 04 once again, although why he’d want to go back, I don’t know – that club is somehow more of a circus than Spartak Moscow, and that really is saying a lot.

The Russian fans, much to their credit, held up banners in the home game against Rubin Kazan, showing their desire to keep him in charge, but I doubt anything will change. This is the best Spartak Moscow have been though. Scrub last week’s defeat; sometimes shit like that can happen in football matches. The point is that Spartak Moscow have consistently performed well this season, and played with strong mentalities. They’ve come back from difficult situations without having men sent off, and they’ve scored goals regularly. It’s been truly marvellous to have Russia’s biggest club actually playing like one again, and part of me feels sad that it’ll probably end when Tedesco goes because this club never does the right thing when it comes to managers.

Spartak Moscow do look a little rusty at the moment, which is understandable – they’ve not kicked a ball in ages. I doubt they’ll be particularly happy about losing against old foes Dinamo Moscow in the Cup though, never mind losing against Rubin Kazan in the Premier League. I wouldn’t be surprised if that contributed to the decision-making which ultimately led to the re-signing of Promes from Ajax. He was a legend at the club last time he was in Russia, despite being a somewhat limited footballer. I’m curious to see how he does because this is a very different Spartak Moscow though. He carried them in the past; now he has to be a part of a team, and that’s never worked out for him anywhere else so let’s wait and see what happens.

Personally, I’m a lot more excited by the arrival of Hendrix in midfield as he’s a good all-rounder that should bring plenty of balance. Kral does a terrific job as a defensive midfielder, and Bakaev does an excellent job at supporting the attackers, but they’re a bit short of folks that can do both – but Hendrix can, as well as keeping the tempo fast. I think it’s a great signing for them. They’ve got a lot of goal threats now, Spartak Moscow, with target man Sobolev flanked by Larsson and/or Ponce, the latter of which has done surprisingly well this season. Ayrton’s runs from full-back have been superb too, and Gigot is a monster from set pieces. If they had a good partner for the Frenchman then I’d consider them as potential title winners but they don’t, and thus they’ll never be far away from conceding a goal.

Spartak Moscow try to control games, and Hendrix’s arrival should help them do it better in due course, but for now they’re still playing the old way i.e. conceding too many sloppy goals. They’re not the only Russian team with that problem, though – just watch the highlights from FK Krasnodar’s UEFA Europa League clash with Dinamo Zagreb! The visitors today will give their hosts their chances, I’m sure, and I did toy with the home win. Truth be told though, I don’t feel like I can trust either team to win right now due to rust and other changes that have transpired.

I do feel confident in a goals call, though. FK Krasnodar are an attacking team anyway; they have been for years now, and that won’t change today. They don’t fear Spartak Moscow, and it’s a really good time to take on the capital club too. FK Krasnodar have made too many changes lately though, and rust is hurting them more than it’s hurt most Premier League teams because they rely on the understanding between players in their squad in order to hurt teams rather than deploying some swanky tactical system. They’re not really capable of the latter; it’s all about being able to outscore teams, which has been made hard lately by conceding a stupid amount of goals.

Misfit defender Oyongo has returned to France to play for Montpellier HSC, and the Swedish media have been reporting that star striker Berg is set to return to his homeland to play for IFK Goteborg. How true the latter is, I don’t know, but I do know he won’t be playing today, which makes me wonder. I wouldn’t be surprised if it were true, though. They’ve come into money lately, which has led to them amazingly capturing Marek Hamsik as well as the likes of Sigthorsson from bitter rivals AIK Solna, and Thern from IFK Norrkoping. So, yes – I think this might be the end of Berg’s time in Russia.

With defenders Petrov and Ramirez on the sidelines right now, it’s hard to envision things getting better for FK Krasnodar any time soon, at least not in defence. I think they’re lucky that their midfield is mostly intact, especially Kaio, who tends to sit in front of the back four. I really don’t think FK Krasnodar can get anything from this game unless they attack though. Trying to keep Spartak Moscow out is tough at the best of times, let alone now. The visitors can outscore Spartak Moscow, though – that much I do know. I wouldn’t trust them to at this moment in time, but I also wouldn’t bet against it.

See, with or without Berg, Spartak Moscow have to devise a plan to contain Wanderson, Suleymanov, Cabella, Vihena, Claersson, and even Ari, who is finally back after a long time out. At the risk of tempting fate, that’s not going to happen. Those players are too good, even if they only play as individuals, and Spartak Moscow are not convincing enough in defence. I think Berg’s seemingly inevitable departure will hurt FK Krasnodar when it comes to breaking teams down but I also think that today’s game doesn’t really fall into that category as it should be fairly open.

Ultimately, whether through the phenomenal attacking talent on display, or the incredibly rusty defending, I’m expecting an over 2.5 goals game in Russia today.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

RSC Anderlecht vs KV Mechelen 

KO: 17:15 (UK time)

Could we finally be witnessing a return of Les Mauves? There’s a certain class and composure about Kompany’s team that hasn’t been seen in the Belgian capital for a few years now. They’ve had injury problems, good players that didn’t fit into the squad, and far too many managerial changes, hence their disjointed campaigns. Now, though? Everything feels very smooth.

Don’t get me wrong; I’ve seen better Anderlecht teams than this. However, I’ve not seen Anderlecht side with so many players on the same page for quite some time, and that’s the clincher here. Kompany has restored pride in this team by bringing in more talented youngsters from their prolific academy, and he’s introduced a style of play that not only allows them to control games properly, but also to let their flair players ‘do their thing’ in the final third. I still don’t think that they’re a legitimate threat for the Eerste Klasse title at this time; they need a few more faces before I change my mind there. This is a good Anderlecht side though, and one that I’m beginning to trust again.

Of late, they won their eternal derby in Liege, running out 3-1 winners. Admittedly, it’s a lot easier to win there without all of the nutcase fans being present but I still thought Anderlecht composed themselves marvellously, and took their chances well against a team that has to be considered their superior at this moment in time. They’ve done well in the Cup too, which I also think is poignant. They may not have faced especially good teams in it, with all due respect to RWDM and Cercle Brugge, but it’s involved them breaking teams down, which is again something they’ve struggled with for years now – but they did it. Things are improving for Anderlecht, slowly but surely.

Importantly, they got star creator Verschaeren back earlier this week, making a brief cameo against Cercle Brugge. The playmaker has been out for a long time now, and they’ve missed him. Kompany is one step closer to having a fully fit squad now, and with Verschaeren pulling the strings, Amuzu and Lokonga bringing the speed, Bruun Larsen bringing the skill, Diaby the movement, and Nmecha the goals, this Anderlecht attack looks dangerous. Their defence isn’t bad but it’s improving now that it’s not being chopped and changed every week, and who better to learn from on that front that Kompany himself? So, yes – I like where Anderlecht are at, and I’ve seen enough from them lately to believe that they can overcome Mechelen today.

The visitors have had quite a good season, although their form has dipped slightly of late, losing 2-0 on the north coast against KV Oostende before being put to the sword by Racing Genk in their mid-week Cup outing. It can’t be considered a surprise that they’ve done as well as they have though. Appointing Vrancken as boss was clearly an inspired choice, given that he hadn’t managed at a good level before but three years on he’s still there, attracting the likes of Mrabti whilst also getting the best out of veterans like Kaya, de Camargo, and Hairemans. There’s clearly an excellent dynamic between players and manager.

As is almost always the case with an average Belgian mid-table team though, there’s a lack of quality in the squad which they attempt to compensate for by challenging teams in other ways. Now, there are a handful of teams competing in the Eerste Klasse that really are too good for the rest – but everybody else is fair game, so I don’t blame such teams for taking approaches of that nature. Over the past couple of years, their pressing game would have seriously disrupted a demoralised Anderlecht side, and I wouldn’t have dreamed of opposing Mechelen during such games – but now it feels different. They look comfortable dealing with such, Anderlecht, and where Mechelen go from here with that knowledge in mind, I don’t know.

I mean, they’re still up against a predominantly youthful Anderlecht side; they may try to bully or intimidate them. It’s so hard to keep tabs on them though because Anderlecht’s attack is incredibly energetic, from their midfielders to their forwards. Stopping them is seriously hard; you can’t bully someone unless you can get close to them, you know? They have done well in hard away games this season, Mechelen, drawing with Club Brugge and Standard de Liege, even winning at Sporting Charleroi. However, it’s always come against teams that were competing in Europe at the time; teams whose priorities were elsewhere, in other words. That’s not the case now, and a fully fit Anderlecht should, in theory, be too much for them to handle today.

I certainly don’t anticipate a massacre here, not given the tenacity and belief of the away team, but I believe that Anderlecht have eclipsed the team that they used to be over the past couple of years. They now look ready to win such games, and at 9/10, I’m happy to chance my arm today, particularly with the visitors coincidentally missing star full-back Kabore (on loan from Manchester City) for a match against an Anderlecht team managed by a Manchester City legend!

Verdict: RSC Anderlecht to win at 9/10.