TFT Issue 3367!

Central Coast Mariners vs Macarthur FC 

KO: 08:05 (UK time)

I’ve got to hand it to the Mariners. This season, they’ve been a revelation, and they’re showing no signs of slowing down yet, even after the occasional injury to Stensness, Nisbet, Smylie, and Miller. I’ll be more concerned when Clisby, Tongyik, de Silva, Bozanic, and Kuol are out, but they coped with Nisbet’s absence rather well and he’s been instrumental for them this season. Frankly, I don’t feel like I know the Mariners at all nowadays, and I mean that in a very positive way because of how many improvements they’ve made. The sky really does seem to be the limit for Stajcic and co.

The secret? I just think it stems from having players all on the same page. They do still have marquee players in their squad, the Mariners, but they’re the only team in the A-League that doesn’t rely upon them. Urena has settled in the best of the trio but he’s still not a finisher. Everything good that has come from the Mariners this season has been from Australians, or in Tongyik’s case, a player that was raised in Australia but opted to represent South Sudan. I’m sure things will balance out more as the season unwinds as none of the Mariners players have hit a patch of bad form yet, which they inevitably will. It’s nice to see youngsters not only getting a chance but impressing though.

Ahead of this fixture, the Mariners have won four from five, and the sole blemish on that run was the defeat against Adelaide United in which The Reds were awarded three spot-kicks, two of which never were, and the third was incredibly dubious. The Mariners did enough to win that game, and they should have. They’re winning both hard and easy games, and they’re still looking motivated and confident. I don’t know what’s not to like about this team, really.

With Kuol and Simon deadly in the air in attack, a really impressive wide game to support them, and a bundle of energy in the middle of the park whilst the class of Bozanic protects the back four, everything looks finely balanced in this squad. I still can’t fathom how a defensive pairing of Rowles and Tongyik can do as well as they have but they have, and fair play to them for it. What else is there to say? Stajcic has glued this team together wonderfully well, and no matter what challenge awaits them, they’re up for it. They can play on the front foot or on the break, and they’ve already done a very solid job on Macarthur FC once this season. Macarthur FC have progressed since then, but so have the Mariners. I really don’t see the Sydney outfit enjoying this match too much.

I do think Macarthur FC have learnt how to trouble teams more now but they still seem to prefer opponents that play at a pedestrian pace, or opponents that don’t penetrate well enough. That’s why they’ve done so well away from home against the likes of Sydney FC and Brisbane Roar recently. Against teams that have injected energy and a good pressing game though, Macarthur FC seldom give a good account of themselves. Some of their individuals are more confident and thus more effective now, it’s true – Susaeta is back to beating his man, for example, and Derbyshire has been scoring more of his opportunities. Even Tommy Oar is beginning to look more like his old self!

I still think that it’s too easy for a team like the Mariners to defend against them though, as well as counter a slow defence. They’ll win more than their fair share of aerial balls, Macarthur FC, so the home team need to be wary from set pieces and the like. However, it’s not the biggest threat that the Mariners have had to deal with, you know? A team like this could make life harder for their opponents but honestly, they’re just not mobile enough. They’re more on the same page than the last time the two teams met, and that will certainly help with the little triangle moves around the edge of the box, but they need to take a leaf out of Western Sydney Wanderers’ book via direct, powerful runners in the final third before I trust this team to ‘do’ the Mariners.

In short, I am impressed with how Milicic’s team has progressed. I think they’re a far greater threat than before, that they control games better, and that they annoy teams that bit more now their players are familiar with one another. This type of match really doesn’t suit them though, so unless they’re gifted a goal early on in this contest, I don’t really think they’ll be able to win it, even though I’m conscious that the Mariners’ excellent run cannot last forever.

At this moment in time, logic points to backing the Mariners with draw no bet cover. I also like the idea of a side bet on Kuol to score at any time at 21/10 because he’s fast on the break, and for a man of his stature, he’s surprisingly good in the air too.

Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to win with draw no bet at 21/25.
Kuol to score at any time at 21/10.

Arges vs Politehnica Iasi 

KO: 15:30 (UK time)

Although newcomers to the division, Arges have impressed in the current campaign, producing a level of football arguably beyond that of which their squad should be capable of. Indeed, I can’t really make up my mind as to whether this team should be content in their battle to avoid the drop or whether they should make a legitimate push for a European place next season because they’ve done well enough to be capable of it, and Romania is hardly flush with top teams right now!

Alright, Arges lost 5-0 last time out against CFR Cluj – no surprise there, really. Part of it was losing against one of the few good teams that does exist in this country, and part of it was arguably a touch of match-fixing with Arges defender Maric not only culpable for both penalties given away, but also scoring a very dicey own goal. I’m afraid that Balkan betting will never be entirely free of match-fixing, unfortunately, but from a logical standpoint, Arges are actually quite good.

Other than that defeat, Arges are unbeaten in 2021 with boss Ianovschi more than matching each opponent’s tactics in each game. Another feather in his cap is the dangerous forward he’s turned journeyman forward Malele into, who has only ever excelled in the lower leagues of any country. You could argue that it’s somewhat symbolic of a regressive football division, but although that’s undeniably true, I still think it’s taken good preparation and good management to get the most out of the relatively forgotten Swiss man. By no means is he the only one, either. Wherever you look in this team, there is a success story. It’s a very close-knit, consistent group, and one that should not really be doubted, even after some blatant match-fixing last time out.

Assistant Manager Prepelita has been speaking to the press a lot of late, stating how the problems of their opponents are nothing to do with them, and that they’re just focused on getting a positive result today. He hinted at changes to the starting eleven after the defeat against CFR Cluj, which is only natural. As always, this team remains grounded and dangerous, and I find it hard to doubt them. There’s simply a very good dynamic in this squad, and no arrogance whatsoever. This is not a team that should struggle to overcome Iasi at home today.

The fun element of this fixture stems from the away team, Iasi. They’re playing like they’ve already been relegated but instead of rallying together, there’s an awful lot of finger-pointing and blaming going on. I mean, it would be easy enough to make a persuasive argument that detailed why Iasi were actually better than their hosts today, at least on paper, especially if classy Cristea were still playing rather than steering the ship! Ironically enough though, that appears to be a problem for them, all of these talented individuals, because they’re not playing as a unit. Indeed, of late, it’s actually developed into something more than that – almost a form of racism, if you will!

Yes, Iasi’s Romanian players have been complaining that their foreign equivalents do not work as hard as they do. I can believe it, because I’ve seen that kind of thing happen many times before, especially when the foreigners in question are on big bucks. Ranting about it in public is not the way to solve it though. All it’s done is divide the team in two, and provided them with an additional problem to solve. President Ciprian Paraschiv was suspended with 10% of his salary for three months, and he’s now opted to take a step back from duties altogether, requesting unpaid leave until the end of the season, so it’s actually resting on the shoulders of the Mayor(!) of Iasi, Mihai Chirica, to sort this mess out!

So what did Paraschiv do, you ask? Well, he basically told the players that they wouldn’t be paid unless they won today. Who’d have thought that he couldn’t actually do that?! Anyway, Chirica stepped in, and instead has asked the players to play for their reputations, their families, and to present a united front. That sort of thing might work in fairy-tales, but it’s anything but a fairy-tale in Iasi right now. I get the impression that the Romanian players actually want the club to fail so they’ve no choice but to axe the foreigners on big bucks, and I would not bank on the mayor having made any significant inroads here.

Therefore, unless their foreigners randomly show up, I can see Iasi losing quite easily against what is generally a very impressive Arges team. 

Verdict: Arges to win at 19/20.

Goztepe vs BB Erzurumspor

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

I was a bit dubious to begin with but Unal Karaman has done a good job since taking over at Goztepe. They’re back to playing exciting attacking football, and with a good squad like theirs, this is a team that should be taken seriously. 

Goztepe tend to be underestimated but they’ve generally done well over the past two or three years. They’ve had their occasional blips, but in general they’ve played good football. I’ve always been impressed at their capacity to bounce back after losing big players too. I mean, I never thought they’d be able to replace goalkeeper Beto, for example, but Egribayat has done really well this season. They just always find solutions to problems, Goztepe, and not many Turkish teams are quite as resourceful as that. 

One of their big problems this season has been converting their good football into goal-scoring displays. Brown Ideye was brought in to do that, and it was a transfer I agreed with at the time – but it’s not worked out. The same can be said with the arrival of Napoleoni. Both contribute to build-up play well enough, but neither of them score goals nowadays, and Goztepe don’t have the kind of midfield to make up the difference. Tripic, Akbunar, and Aydogdu get involved but none of them are long-term solutions, which is why they made some good signings to change things around because it was generally just N’Diaye doing the business. 

In came rapid Trabzonspor outcast Diabate on loan to speed their final third play up. They’ve brought their former legend Jahovic back to be their goal-getter up front, and they’ve also snared Austrian midfielder Zulj from RSC Anderlecht in Belgium. Jahovic is yet to find the net since his return but Diabate has started really brightly, aiding the team in creating far better chances. None of their strikers other than N’Diaye have thrived just yet, but Zulj in midfield has, already bagging four goals after just eight appearances. Again – Goztepe find solutions, not problems, and have now put in four very good consecutive shifts, resulting in some terrific outcomes for them.

Helpfully, BB Erzurumspor have dropped off lately. They’ve done seriously well since getting promoted to the Super Lig but are beginning to look a bit fatigued. Take Lithuanian attacking midfielder Novikovas, for example. At the start of the Super Lig campaign, he was arguably the best player in the division for a month or two but it was never going to last, and when he inevitably slowed down, there was nobody to step up and replace his goals and chance creation. It’s fair to say that Obertan and Donald have disappointed, given how good they unquestionably can be at this level, and that Gomes up front has begun to look a little isolated.

They have tried to find new blood, BB Erzurumspor, bringing in Morocco’s El Kabir. I like him a lot, but have seldom seen him truly shine in Turkey. I think he should just bite the bullet and go back to BK Hacken Goteborg, where he was a king for a while, because I’m not sure his attitude suits the Super Lig. He needs to feel special but at Super Lig level, it’s become quite clear that he’s just not.  Who else? Ah, yes – Ukrainian defender Butko has joined from Shakhtar Donetsk, Burkinabe defender Coulibaly from Le Havre, Kosovan midfielder Rashani from Odd, Dutch pressing forward Darri from Fatih Karagumruk, and Moroccan defender Bergdich from Denizlispor. Lots of new faces, lots to integrate – not much consistency at the moment, which is not surprising.

Ergo, I do think the fatigue will pass once the integration of the newbies has taken place. Until then, they’re kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place, BB Erzurumspor. The two signings I didn’t mention above are the only ones I believe to be a threat to my pick today, which are Moroccan duo of da Costa (ball-playing centre-back) and Chahechouhe (playmaker). Those two are brilliant acquisitions that know this division well, and have dominated it before during their time at Sivasspor. Understandably, those two have settled the best, and if the visitors are to get something from this trip, those two will be instrumental.

Other than that, I can’t see the away team having much joy here. Goztepe are playing well, and they’ve picked a good time to face BB Erzurumspor. Therefore the home win at 9/10 appeals to me.  

Verdict: Goztepe to win at 9/10.

Aalborg BK vs SonderjyskE

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

I get that people want to back Aalborg BK here, and I can’t really talk any of you out of it because SonderjyskE have hardly been great recently. Not just that, but this is their third game in a week, and they’re struggling enough as it is. 

However, what I would add to that equation is that Aalborg BK are still without their two best midfielders, namely Hiljemark and Andersen, and those two are supposed to run everything. With the Swede, I can’t say for sure because he’s not had an injury-free period since moving to Denmark, although his quality in other leagues should make it simple enough for him to do the same in the Superligaen. Andersen’s pedigree at this level is very well-known though, and truth be told, despite the presence of Kusk he’s actually carried Aalborg BK for a year or two now. They’ve got more quality in their midfield this season to lessen the burden on him but he’s still their top creator and tempo dictator. Those two being out is a problem.

A further issue would be that they’ve just sold their only good defender, namely Okore. He’s gone off for a Chinese swansong, and I don’t blame him really. Injuries have dogged his career, and they will again at some point; might as well earn some big bucks for the last couple of years he’ll have before he starts missing large chunks of each season. However, Aalborg BK don’t have a defence without him. He’s their organiser, their best winner of the ball in the air, and their strongest player too. Okore’s role may not be as glorified as that of Andersen’s, for example, but he’s just as important. To me, those absentees/departees alone are enough to not fancy the home win today, bad SonderjyskE form or not.

I mean, Aalborg BK themselves have drawn in Farum and lost at AC Horsens recently; they’re hardly thriving without their two midfield maestros. Young target man Prica is yet to find his feet in front of goal, which is why the club have loaned Norway’s Samuelsen from Hull City, and he’s been doing a good job. I’d like to think that’d coax the best out of rapid Nkada too, but time will tell on that front. I mean, Rufo Herraiz was also signed recently in the same position so I don’t know. Still, Aalborg BK are addressing their weaknesses, and with Fossum, Borsting, and Kusk on the park, I have to believe there’ll be enough service for the front men to score at least once or twice tonight.

Can they really hope to keep SonderjyskE at bay without Okore though? I don’t think it’s possible. I mean, three of the last four Superligaen meetings between these two teams have gone over 2.5 goals, and only one of them ended without SonderjyskE scoring – and Okore played in all of them. Furthermore, with the financial backing that SonderjyskE now have, they’ve got a far better squad than they’ve had in years. They may have lost Onazi lately but they’ve still got Wright, Jacobsen, Hassan, and Albaek – and that’s enough for me. 

Furthermore, SonderjyskE have made interesting signings in 2021 with Norway’s Finne joining to add mobility in attack whilst Guira arriving to replace Onazi in front of the back four. It’ll take Guira very little time to adjust, given that he’s been at SonderjyskE before, and Finne has already played in a few games since moving. They’re only going to make this team better with time, especially with an attack-minded manager like Riddersholm at the helm. I can’t see them sitting back and letting Aalborg BK dictate the tempo today; they’re going to have a go and try to use their speed to make things happen, and that combination equals goals in my head.

The only concern I have is that the pitch in Aalborg has been worse than most in the Superligaen in 2021. Still, at evens, I can’t possibly overlook backing over 2.5 goals here.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.

Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem

KO: 18:45 (UK time)

Maccabi priced at these odds against? Yes, please! It’s not a decade ago, for starters – Maccabi are comfortably better than Beitar, and that’s said in the knowledge that this really isn’t the best Maccabi team I’ve seen.

At the moment, the reigning champions have the scent of another Ligat Ha’al title, and it’s spurring them on. Having the support of the officials whenever they will is always beneficial, of course, but it would be misleading to say that they’re anything but Israel’s best team. Part of that is due to Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s implosion, Beitar Jerusalem’s complete lack of long-term planning, and Maccabi Haifa’s bottling tendencies, but the big part of it is Maccabi having the biggest financial backing, the biggest reputation, European football every season, and boatloads of trophies. If they’re ever short, they simply replace, and seldom struggle to make the replacement fit.

They had a bad start to the season, but after ultimately replacing Donis with van Leeuwen, things have picked up and Maccabi are back on track for the title. They’ve re-acquired Geraldes to help balance the team’s attacking out better as their full-backs play as wingers anyway. That, fused with Ben-Haim remembering how to be a professional attacker and Biton’s continued brilliance, has led to Maccabi winning more games than you can shake a stick at – and they’ve done it without Cohen too, for the most part, who is their leading goal-scorer this season. He’s had a number of injury issues in 2021. Christ, they were even without Serbian target man Pesic for the win at Hapoel Haifa last time out because he had Covid-19, so outcast Blackman was recalled, and he scored on his return. I’m sure you get the picture about this club’s depth, and match-winning mentalities.

I’ve said all along that I believed in Maccabi coming back and wresting control of the title from the likely hands of Maccabi Haifa, who tend to bottle such occasions – and so it has proved to be lately. Maccabi Haifa have been without Rukavytsya, to be fair, but then again, Maccabi Tel-Aviv playing without Cohen is the same deal – but Maccabi Tel-Aviv have dealt with it better than the league leaders. The depth, the experience, the consistency, the ability to control games, and now the confidence is what makes Maccabi so good to back right now, and that’s precisely what I intend to do today.

Beitar aren’t all that bad but they can’t hold a candle to Maccabi right now. As always, that’s entirely of Beitar’s own making because just as they look to be getting back on track, they fuck everything up again. That’s what they do, year in, year out. For every problem they solve, they create another one, which is why I doubt they’ll ever win the Ligat Ha’al again. I mean, it was insane enough earlier in the season when they were about to be bought by an Emirati(!) businessman. Everything looked rosy, and then everybody remembered it’s Beitar we’re talking about, did some investigating, could find nothing out about the potential buyer, and pulled the plug on the whole deal. The only thing Beitar could have done to out-Beitar themselves in that situation was to have it fall through at the last minute – and that’s exactly what happened!

Honestly, I could rant about this team all day. Verdasca is their best defender, for example – they’ve been without him all season through injury, and have done nothing to replace him other than to randomly bring Ben-Haim back into the fold, who stopped being a good defender about five years ago. It’s hard not to draw parallels between that and losing 3-2 at home against bitter rivals Bnei Sakhnin last time out, who only returned to the Ligat Ha’al earlier this season. They signed Matheusinho in a bid to help them break teams down, as another example, and he’s been out for months injured, thus not helping. In attack, they seem content to rely upon has-beens and players with hugely unfulfilled potential. Is it any wonder that Beitar are so inconsistent?

I mean, at times, I think both Shua and Ohana look really, really good for Beitar. Both have their fancy footwork with little dragbacks and dummies all over the final third, and they both seem to have a good grasp of where their opponents are. However, Shua’s finishing is yet not up to scratch, and after spending so long being bounced around different clubs over the past couple of years, never starting regularly, I cannot consider it a surprise. I wish Shakhtar Donetsk had took him, looking at how much they’ve developed Solomon! With Ohana, he just doesn’t care half of the time; a modern day Buzaglo, if you like. When he wants to, he reminds me of Rafaelov – but he just doesn’t seem interested most of the time, which is probably why he fits in so well at Beitar. Vlijter is fast, times his runs well, and can beat a man – but has zero composure. In short, there’s no consistent poacher in this squad, there’s no real consistency with creating chances, and there’s a defence that couldn’t keep a cow out. 

Literally the only good thing about Beitar right now is Serbian boss Drapic. He knows the Ligat Ha’al inside out, and has a proven track record of not only managing at this level, but reinventing squads from one season to the next. I doubt Beitar will be intelligent enough to keep him in charge because, well, they’re Beitar. However, whilst he’s there, they’ve got a chance of becoming a good team again – but he’ll need at least three years to do it, in my opinion, and Beitar – well, let’s just say that that’s not going to fly. So, yeah – Beitar are doomed, but are at least feeling a little perky at the moment because of some good results lately. Well, they were until Bnei Sakhnin beat them last time out. Back to the drawing board? I suspect so.

I’ll accept that a 1-0 is possible here, hence the insurance on the selection, but I’d be surprised if Maccabi didn’t pick up yet another three points so the tip should be relatively risk-free, really. The quality gap may not be as big here as it would be in other Ligat Ha’al meetings, but the mentality and consistency gap is, and that’s enough for me to take the plunge on the -1 Asian Handicap for the hosts. 

Verdict: Maccabi Tel-Aviv to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 19/20.

Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel 

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

Holstein Kiel always try to drum this one up as a ‘northern derby’ but it’s not, really. Hamburg’s derby is with Bremen and/or St. Pauli. The reality is that Kiel is closer to Denmark than it is to Hamburg. Wouldn’t it be more entertaining to have a derby with a team from another country too? They could ‘buddy up’ with SonderyjskE from Haderslev; it’s only a smidge further away from Kiel than Hamburg is! But anyway; this is not what I class as a derby.

I wish it were, though. Hamburg are bottling every game at the moment, and they looked poor in their actual derby with St. Pauli a week ago. Another pressure cooker of a match should kill them off. I don’t think Hamburg will class it in such a way though. Besides, they have bigger things to worry about than whether this match is a derby or not, Hamburg. They need to worry about why this slide of theirs is likely to condemn them to yet another year in the Bundesliga 2 despite having the best squad in the division, and addressing why their players are so mentally weak as to utterly capitulate in the second-half of every single campaign despite dominating in the first-half of it.

I can’t deny that Hamburg will be fresher here, seeing as how they’ve not played for seven days and Kiel had a DFB Pokal match against Rot-Weiss Essen to win mid-week, but I don’t care. Kiel are the far more professional team right now, and they’ve had a bug for promotion ever since they made the play-offs that time, only to be beaten by Wolfsburg 1-0. They’ve made all the changes required to make this team not only better, but more intelligent. This is a very different Kiel from the team that was promoted from the division below some three or four years back. That Kiel was all about attacking and blitzing teams with no regard for defending but this Kiel is far more well-rounded.

How are Hamburg going to cope with a team like that? They’ve never beaten Kiel since the two teams began locking horns in the Bundesliga 2; did you know that? It’s always because Kiel want it more, and work harder to get it. Nothing has changed since their last meeting, really – Kiel are still the more professional team, and they still perform consistently better than Hamburg. When Hamburg are at their best, they’re better than Kiel – but that doesn’t happen for more than half of a season anyway, so who is really the better team? I have my opinion; you can all make up your own minds.

Hamburg are without a win for four games now because, once again, they’re caught up in the maelstrom of not being mentally strong enough to win important matches. Any team can go on a bad run; that’s not a secret. For a team like this to fuck up in the games like they have, though, is not acceptable. If they’d faced Furth, Bochum, Heidenheim, and Fortuna in the past four games, I can live with the record. However, they’ve faced just one of those teams (Furth), which ended in a 0-0 draw at home as Hamburg were again outsmarted and outfought by a team that shouldn’t be as good as them. Other than that, they’ve somehow conceded three goals in Aue, whose hosts have arguably the most predictable, basic attack in the entire division, three against relegation candidates Wurzburger Kickers, and now lost the Hamburg derby against a motivated St. Pauli. Not scoring against St. Pauli is embarrassing, honestly. They’re attacking brilliantly at the moment but they still defend like a team from the division below!

When I watched that derby last week, and I saw St. Pauli hemming Hamburg in at the death, despite already leading 1-0, I knew it was all mental. Hamburg just can’t cope with the pressure. Leibold was dismissed at the end because he was so frustrated at his team’s inability to get the ball back that he kicked an opponent, and now he’s suspended for tonight’s harder match, with all due respect to St. Pauli. At such times, all the decisions Hamburg make are wrong, which is why their quality begins to count for very little. If this were Football Manager, they’d win 80% of their matches and get promoted but that’s not real life, folks. Real life is that this team doesn’t have the bottle for big games – and this is a big game.

Like I said above, Kiel have improved so much over the years that it’s amazing. To transcend from that naive but fun all out attacking team into a mature, hard-working, tactically proficient promotion candidate is staggering. They’ve not spent boatloads of money. Their current manager, Werner, came from their own “B” team. They don’t focus on names, Kiel – only the effectiveness of the personnel. Indeed, their biggest name would have to be Serbian defensive midfielder (although they play him in defence) Ignjovski, and although injuries play a part in this, he barely gets to play for them nowadays. That’s the strength of the team we’re talking about; they can cope without their few ‘big names’.

It’s players like van den Bergh that make it happen too. How he gets up and down the left side of the pitch at thirty-four, I don’t know. He’s the same age as me, and I had to go in net after about 2 minutes of the last 5-a-side game I played in because I was knackered, so fair play to him! He’s got such a hunger to not only play football, but to win, that he’s infectious to the rest of the squad. Even someone like Bartels (whom Hamburg fans will not be keen to see tonight, given his legend status with Bremen) brings more than just experience; he wants to win, and he never stops giving a shit, and fighting for this team. 

Let me put it like this, folks. Kiel aren’t better than Hamburg; they’re simply better prepared, more industrious, and far more consistent. The best example I can give you for this is their DFB Pokal victory over Bayern Munich earlier in 2021. I watched that game, and Kiel had prepared meticulously for Bayern. Alright, it wasn’t a great period for Bayern, but still – the quality gap was humongous. Anyway, Kiel had the measure of Bayern – they fell behind to a clearly offside goal (VAR was bizarrely not in use for that tie) but equalised through pinpointing Bayern’s usual weakness of not defending well against diagonals over the back four. Despite falling behind again, they kept battling, and they outsmarted Bayern, even equalising at the death. Sure, they were knackered in extra-time, and had to ride their luck a little, but they were immaculate in the shootout, converting amazing penalties and beating the best team in Germany. There was nothing smash-and-grab about that win; they were meticulous in everything that they did, Kiel. That’s the kind of team we’re talking about here, and the type of sheer conviction that they have. Hamburg can’t even buy something like that. They have better players, but nowhere near better mentalities than Kiel.

With that in mind, I’m more than happy to chance my arm on backing underdogs Kiel to beat bottlers Hamburg with draw no bet cover at 7/5.

Verdict: Holstein Kiel to win with draw no bet at 7/5.

OGC Nice vs Monaco

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

As this is a Coupe de France match, I would advise that you all check the lineups before getting involved. My tip is based on the concept that OGC Nice should take it seriously, and AS Monaco may take it slightly less seriously. If OGC Nice do not field their best eleven here, then please abandon ship; I do not think they can avoid defeat if they rotate.

Assuming they go full hog here though, I think Nice can at least avoid defeat in ninety minutes, possibly even beating their more illustrious neighbours. I have to believe that AS Monaco are not only prioritising a UEFA Champions League place for next season, but also potentially winning Ligue 1. I mean, PSG are far from impressive, Lille can’t keep this up forever, and although Lyon are awesome, any kind of absentees causes them issues. Kovac’s style may not be easy on the eye, but he’s made Monaco more efficient, and they look better for it. A title win really isn’t out of the equation for them.

Something I’ve noticed about Monaco under Kovac’s reign is that they’re a lot more effective when teams voluntarily come at them. With players like Martins, Ben Yedder, and Volland in attack, and very good passers behind them, that cannot be considered a surprise. I’ve seldom been convinced with the principality club when they have to break opponents down though. They can sometimes do it, don’t get me wrong, but it’s by no means a speciality. I think it’d be more apparent if they faced similar or better teams that played that way more often, but this is Ligue 1 so there are only a handful of teams that are arguably better than Monaco. Those teams do cause them problems by playing with caution, but even they are expected to attack at some stage so Monaco have a route to goal to utilise.

I doubt that’ll happen quite so freely here though. I’ve opposed Nice a lot this season, and rightly so because they’ve been a joke. However, Ursea has finally got something positive going for them, which is the unification of Todibo and Saliba in defence. Each week something new is posted about each of them, whether it’s a video from three years ago, or an ex-professional criticising one of them for playing too many video games. However, the rather exciting reality is that those two complement one another wonderfully well in defence, and their union has removed almost all signs of Dante’s absence in defence, which is seriously impressive. They’re young, and they’ll still make the odd mistake, but in general they look really good at defending, especially against fast attacks.

In turn, the above has lent the rest of the Nice team confidence, both to get forward and to use the ball more boldly. Other than against Metz and Marseille, for which they were missing a lot of regulars for different reasons, I think Nice have been excellent lately. They were brilliant in Paris, and desperately unlucky to lose 2-1, and they’ve won at Stade Rennais and at home against Nimes recently. Despite Reine-Adelaide, Dante, and now Boudaoui being out, and Lopes likely to be out (but is in the recuperation phase of his injury so may make the bench tonight against his old club), I actually really like where Nice are at. Dolberg is back to lead the line, and he’s a good goal-scorer. Gouiri is back to his best, Maolida has somehow stayed fit recently for the first time in, what – three years? Things feel a lot more positive at Nice right now, and with their significant defensive improvements, I’m struggling to accept that Monaco are such heavy favourites for this derby.

I won’t deny that Monaco should be favourites, but based on recent displays, I think they should be priced longer than they are. Monaco fell foul of Strasbourg in Ligue 1 last time out, who play a very similar style to Nice but with far less defensive capabilities. If Nice play the same way tonight, they can cause an upset here, particularly if Monaco do decide to rotate. Again, it’s prudent to check lineups before betting on this Coupe de France affair, but sat here on Sunday, writing this preview, I believe there’s value in laying Monaco.

Verdict: OGC Nice to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 49/50.