TFT Issue 3369!

I’m still kicking myself for not giving Canet Roussillon a +1.5 Asian Handicap at the weekend. It made the draft, but I just couldn’t risk it with the players knowing that Sampaoli was waiting in the wings to be impressed ahead of his first game in charge of the club tonight. The part-timers knocked Marseille out of the Coupe de France, beating them 2-1, and it could have been more too. For clarity, Canet Roussillon are four divisions below Marseille – just so you understand where they’re at.

Even though I rate Sampaoli highly as a manager, I have some very real concerns about his appointment. For starters, the majority of the good work he’s done has been in South America. His one stint in Europe ended in disaster at Sevilla CF, and they had a far more settled and hard-working team than tonight’s hosts. I think it’s yet another panic move from a club that simply doesn’t have direction anymore. Sampaoli will want to bring better football to the club but whether it’s humanly possible anymore, I honestly couldn’t say.

The one common denominator for every single Sampaoli team is work-rate, both in and out of possession. He’s just not going to have that at Marseille because not enough of these players give a shit. Alright, he may from Lirola and Milik, who are yet to be contaminated since their respective moves, and he may from Kamara and Germain, who always do their best. The rest, though? I wouldn’t bank on it. Maybe Benedetto, I suppose, but he’s not all that good. Thauvin is a class act but more for what he brings rather than what he gives. For Sampaoli to succeed at this club, he would need at least three years, and to swap at least 60% of the squad – and even then there’s no guaranteeing that he’s the right man to manage in Ligue 1. 

Suffice to say that, despite the typical new manager bounce that comes, I’m not worried about Marseille. The fans are furious, ripping into legends like captain Mandanda, and making a mockery of Amavi’s latest injury. They want the board to resign, and I can’t really blame them at this stage. Bad decision-making plus a volatile group of fans does not make for good bedfellows! Maybe Marseille will turn up tonight and prove me wrong – maybe. I doubt it, though – this is a demoralised, ineffectual, and frankly depressing team.

Rennes are not exactly on Cloud NIne themselves right now but at least their lull is more authentic in the sense that it’s the kind every team goes through at some stage. That didn’t stop Rennes from going full ‘Marseille’ though, sacking boss Stephan despite all the good work he’s done at the club. Instead, they’ve brought in Genesio, formerly of Olympique Lyonnais, who was last seen robbing a living in China with Beijing Guoan. I’ve never thought he was a particularly good manager, in all honesty. I’m not sure his appointment will give this team what they’d like from him.

However, having said that, I believe he’ll bring enough motivation from his appointment alone to get Rennes back on track against hapless Marseille tonight. The visitors have the better squad anyway; it just needs gluing in certain parts before they become a very good team again. Again, Genesio may not be the man to do it, but these players are not the mercenaries of Marseille; they actually give a shit. Therefore, it’s logical enough to expect a positive reaction at the Velodrome tonight, and with the pressure on their opponents rather than themselves, I’d like to think that the Rennes have enough in their favour to make it count here.

With Marseille, they’re not just lazy, but also pretty average. With Rennes, there’s a seriously capable group of players that are only lacking in a bit of direction. This key differential has not been accurately estimated by the bookies, in my opinion. I think Rennes will bounce back all the stronger for what they’ve done, even if just as a short-term effect, whereas Marseille are just going to get worse with time without major, major renovations taking place. With that in mind, the odds on the away win with draw no bet cover are really appealing tonight.