TFT Issue 3370!

Dynamo Kyiv vs Villarreal

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

I am surprised the odds on the away win are as good as they are here. Fair enough – Dynamo Kyiv surprised me a tad by overcoming Club Brugge in the last round. I think that the Belgians exited the competition with a number of regrets though, given how the two legs panned out. I’m not so sure that the Ukrainians will enjoy this fixture as much though.

It’s not just because of Unai Emery, a big fan of the UEFA Europa League, either, although he has done very well in eastern Spain. No, I think it comes down to the styles of the two teams, and how much that favours the visitors. Honestly, not many Spanish teams still play good, attack-minded football anymore – but Villarreal do. This is a team that is very comfortable in possession, more than happy to play one-twos in any part of the pitch, and look very confident in front of goal too. That’s…just not who Dynamo Kyiv are, though. If Lucescu is given time, he will make them into that team – but that sort of thing takes years, and it’s hard to imagine an ex-Shakhtar Donetsk boss getting that amount of time at Dynamo Kyiv.

For now, Dynamo are improving, but look out of their depth in games of this nature. For me, they’re still a bit too stiff, you know? Everybody has a role, and exclusive does said roles Not many of them are comfortable stepping outside of that, barring Luxembourgian star Rodrigues, of course. Tsygankov has his moments out wide, and Verbic will always be a threat, but it feels quite obvious as to where the danger for opponents will come from, and football shouldn’t be that way. I have to tip my hat to forward Besedin, though. He will try things that are out of his comfort zone (e.g. the occasional dribble) and it generally doesn’t happen – but he’s at least willing to make himself harder to anticipate, and with three goals in four appearances, he’s somebody that needs to be monitored.

I can’t accuse Dynamo of not giving a shit, because they do. This is a very proud club; one that demands a good work-rate from its players. However, years of exposure to defence-minded managers like Khatskevich has left them…well, defensive. These players are not used to having the creative freedom that Lucescu gives, and although it’s not hurting them too much in Ukraine, it should hurt them in Europe, where errors are generally punished by opponents. That, fused with a slick Villarreal side, should only really produce one outcome tonight.

The visitors may have lost their last two matches, but considering that they came against Valencia in the derby, and Atletico Madrid, I think they can be forgiven, although I’m sure they’re still kicking themselves for leading in Valencia with five minutes to go before throwing it all away. They’ve taken European football seriously this season, Villarreal, and that’s nothing new. They’re still a small club, after all, so any European football is good for them. They should have enough drive to win tonight to name a strong squad, and with nothing really left in the Primera Liga for them this season, I think it makes sense for them to prioritise potentially winning a competition that is definitely not beyond their reach.

There are some absentees joining long-term injured Alberto Moreno on the sidelines tonight with defensive midfielders Iborra and Coquelin, as well as rotation options Pena and Pino, all out. I’m not worried, though – the core of this team is intact, and Capoue is now in the squad to play a deeper role anyway, which is something the Frenchman has done rather well thus far. An attack containing lethal duo Alcacer and Gerard Moreno is enough to guarantee goals for me, particularly with Chukwueze and Moi Gomez supporting whilst Parejo pulls the strings. Their full-backs aren’t behind the door when it comes to getting forward, either!

They will still concede goals, Villarreal, as a by-product of attacking as often as they do. However, they’ve got that balance right, all things considered, and they tend to outscore teams that they’re able to outscore for that very reason. They have some limitations, but none that I think Dynamo Kyiv will expose here. Better teams will, but with the Ukrainians still a bit too pedestrian and cautious, I expect the visitors to pick up a potentially invaluable victory tonight, and at 9/10, it’s a risk worth taking.

Verdict: Villarreal to win at 9/10.

Manchester United vs AC Milan

KO: 17:55 (UK time)

I daresay folks will be getting carried away with United after their derby win against City at the weekend. Personally, I know that hard months are ahead because Fernandes is knackered, and we’re (yes, I’m a big red!) not able to use van de Beek as a rotation option for him because he’s not adjusted to the English game yet. Beating big teams isn’t something that Fernandes greatly influences; he was signed to help United break down stubborn, defensive teams – and he does. Therefore, I don’t think the win against City reflected quite where United are at right now. West Ham United are coming up soon; let’s see how that one goes, shall we? I suspect it’ll be a bit of a slog for Manchester United with the proviso that West Ham United aren’t quite as poor as they were in the FA Cup meeting.

I think United will be alright tonight though. Milan are a lot more attack-minded under Pioli, and although he’s done a marvellous job since taking over, tonight’s fixture comes at a bad time for Milan. They did well to win in Verona at the weekend, admittedly, but really struggled to make any probing passes without Calhanoglu, who is still injured tonight. Both he and Bennacer are the ones to distribute the ball properly, playing in Rebic, Castillejo, Leao, and Ibrahimovic. Without Calhanoglu and Bennacer – which is the case tonight – Milan struggle to find that right final ball a lot of the time. I mean, their two goals in Verona were the rest of an outrageous free-kick from Krunic (his first Milan goal since moving from Empoli almost two years ago) and a moment of magic from Dalot, a player that the Milan fans really haven’t taken to this season. 

Tonali and Kessie both sit deep in midfield well, and they’re comfortable distributing the ball, but Calhanoglu and Bennacer are better at doing it in more advanced roles – and they’re both out tonight. Furthermore, Rebic – their main speedy wide threat – is out, as are both of their target men, Ibrahimovic and Mandzukic. I’m actually a big fan of Portuguese striker Leao; I genuinely think he has the potential to be the best striker for his country in many decades (no, Ronaldo is not a striker in my world) but he’s still got some development to do, and I really think he’s up against it with limited service tonight.

In short, I believe Milan are going to be a bit predictable here, and what concerns me the most about that is that their defending lately has been particularly poor. Verona may not have punished them for it but Milan’s backpasses were sloppy when pressed, and their defending from corners was really poor. I think they’ve been especially bad defensively in Europe, which has led to them walking a real tightrope on more than one occasion, and French defender Hernandez being out tonight is far from a helpful contribution to the cause! I don’t think it would be harsh to say that European football may be a bridge too far for them right now on their path to recovery. I’ve been really impressed with them overall, and it’s genuinely a delight to see them back in the equation at the top of the Serie A ladder, but competing in Europe – especially with so many key players out – looks beyond them to me.

Solskjaer demonstrated in Torino that he wanted the UEFA Europa League tie with Real Sociedad wrapped up sooner rather than later. United were focused, professional, and very clinical in their 4-0 win, which meant there was no way back for the Spaniards in the return leg, allowing Solskjaer to rest some players. I don’t see him taking a different approach here either. The league is the priority for United, who are looking to reestablish themselves domestically, much like Milan, although United are a couple of years ahead of Milan in their resurgence. For my money, United are now only three signings away from being a team that can compete for major honours again but if Pogba goes in summer, that’ll be four.

United want to win every competition though, and have named strong sides in every competition they’ve been in this season. There might be a touch of rotation tonight with the likes of James and Rashford having ran themselves into the ground at the weekend, meaning Greenwood should return – and that’s a very good thing. Folk have criticised him this season because his goal-scoring record isn’t as good, but I’ve been really impressed with his development. I’ve lost count of how many players have failed at United because they were just good finishers; you’ve got to be able to contribute to build-up more than that nowadays, and Greenwood has really improved his all-round game on the right wing. I think he’ll start, along with Cavani and Martial, and that’s enough for me.

Matic may replace McTominay, who wasn’t quite at his best against City (probably after being rushed back from injury) but the rest should stay the same. I would not be surprised to see Bailly replace Lindelof, knowing that United are going to be up against speed rather than anything else tonight. These aren’t big shifts though, and I’m far happier with Henderson in goal than De Gea nowadays. The Spaniard has been a phenomenon for United over the years; probably the best shot stopper I’ve ever seen. However, something has changed over the past eighteen months, and he’s becoming a bit of a hindrance, I’m sorry to say. United need to make sure they don’t have another player on their books for longer than they should, purely by virtue of their longevity at the club, ala the Rooney situation. 

Ultimately, my belief is that Milan will try to play football tonight; that’s Pioli’s style, and that’s their style. If they do, then United should be more than comfortable here, as they always are in playing against teams coming out against them. I’ll be more concerned if Milan just sit back but even then, United should still win it, thus activating the insurance side of the pick, so I’m happy to back United to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.

Verdict: Manchester United to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.

Beitar Jerusalem vs Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

This is Beitar’s third match in seven days, and they’ve struggled in their last two. They lost the derby at home against Bnei Sakhnin, who have only just returned to the Ligat Ha’al, and that in turn led Beitar to their typical spiralling motion, which sent them headlong into a 4-1 defeat against title hopefuls Maccabi Tel-Aviv – and it’s worth noting that the reigning champions were missing their two main strikers for that match, still scoring four times! Yes, it’s fair to say that Beitar’s heads have gone – again. Shocker, I know(!)

Is it fair to say that Beitar have given up on the Ligat Ha’al this season now, praying for a State Cup win in order to secure European football for next season? They’re five points behind Hapoel Be’er Sheva (who occupy the last of the top six places) with a game in hand – but there’s still only nine points to play for. To put it bluntly, if they do harbour any hopes of making the top six, then winning tonight is paramount. Little could look less likely than that right now though, with weak mentalities, poor form, and now diminishing alternatives in their squad.

The continued absence of Portuguese defender Verdasca doesn’t help, and Adi is no stranger to the sidelines either. For tonight’s game, they’re also without centre-backs Zehavi and Degani, both of which have been regulars this season, meaning that past-it Ben-Haim may even get a game, which would be comical for a plethora of reasons. Then you have to factor in that one of their most consistent players, Niger midfielder Muhammad, is also out. I quite like his bursts forward but he’s generally perceived to be a defensive midfielder, and his absence tonight will be even more problematic for the home team.

Even with Kriaf back, and Matheusinho finally able to play regularly, this is not an inspiring Beitar setup. They’ve got too many inconsistent players in the final third, most of which play for money and fame rather than pride, and a number of which have failed to deliver this season. They’re short of natural support for their attackers, short of natural finishers, and almost entirely bereft of a defence tonight. That, fused with this being Beitar’s third game in seven days, makes me doubt the home team.

Bnei Yehuda have mostly recovered from their bout of Covid-19 now. Segas, Rostom, and Ljujic are still out with it, and Zenati/Ghadir are injured, but that’s it. For me, that’s enough to trust streetwise boss Abukasis to do a job in Jerusalem tonight. This is Bnei Yehuda’s third game in nine days, so they’re far better rested than their hosts. I also think that, when with the right quota of first-team players, they’ve been good since Abukasis returned. The problem has mostly been availability. I still have no doubts about Abukasis’ return ultimately bringing about the best for Bnei Yehuda in due course. That needs to happen sooner than later though, because improved displays look a lot less impressive if they’re in the division below!

Bnei Yehuda’s problems tonight are specifically centred around goal-scoring and chance creation. With no Zaneti and Ghadir in attack, it’s down to Zrihan, Campos, Cohen, and newbie Beciraj, the former trio of which have not impressed this season, and the latter of which is a proven goal-scorer at this level but has limited support right now. That’s unlikely to change with Serbian playmaker Ljujic out for the visitors too. Still, the energy is there, and Beitar’s defence is a mess, so I would not rule anything out.

Defensive midfielder Segas will be gutted to be out for this game, given that he was a Bnei Sakhnin man prior to his Bnei Yehuda transfer. I really like the structure of Bnei Yehuda though, even with him out. They’ve contained teams surprisingly well in the Ligat Ha’al lately, whether the results show it or not, and I would expect nothing less of an Abukasis squad. Their defence is intact, they look focused, they look motivated, and they’re a team that simply gives more of a shit than their hosts. That, fused with the fact that Beitar have to attack them here, makes me think that Bnei Yehuda are more likely to get something from this match than the odds suggest.

Therefore, I’m on Bnei Yehuda to avoid defeat at 83/100 – and they’ve not lost on any of their last three visitors to Jerusalem. 

Verdict: Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 83/100.

Granada vs Molde FK

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

History beckons for Norway’s Molde FK, who bumbled their way past a joke of a TSG Hoffenheim side in the last round. I can pick fault with Molde FK for the weaknesses they have that they’ve never addressed, but one thing I cannot fault is their enthusiasm. They constantly work hard, they want the ball to feet, and they want to make things happen. They’re a very bold team, but have become smarter with it as the competition has progressed, not always committing everybody forward. I still think that any UEFA Europa League team worth their salt should not struggle to score against them, but they chanced across a poor, inconsistent TSG Hoffenheim last time out, and made it count, so fair play to the Norwegians, especially after months of not playing football!

They’ve been preparing for this fixture for weeks now, Molde FK, and that gives them a bit of a head start on their hosts, although you could argue that their lack of match practice is a disadvantage. I doubt there’s anything they don’t know about Granada now though, which should be a really big boost for the visitors. Let’s also not forget that there is zero pressure on them, given how everybody (myself included!) thought that they’d be out of the competition by now. I’m not making any promises with regard to whether they’ll go through or not but let’s just say that they’ve given themselves the best possible chance of doing so with all of the preparation they’ve had.

The absence of winger Brynhildsen tonight isn’t ideal for the visitors through. They like to stretch teams where they can, and playing a good wide game certainly helps on that front. If they’re forever pinging long balls in behind for Omoijuanfo to run onto, it becomes predictable. Brynhildsen and Hussain help to keep things interesting; halving that is not the best news for the visitors, particularly not when you consider that James has left the club so it’s literally just Omoijuanfo or grafter Knudtzon doing the rounds in attack, unless they intend on handing Iceland’s Sigurdarson his debut. I still think that Molde FK’s energy and conviction will cause Granada problems, but I don’t see the Spaniards making the same mistakes as TSG Hoffenheim did.

For starters, Granada are far more comfortable on the ball than the Germans. They’re very flexible, tactically astute, and a very dangerous team in general. Winning this competition might be a stretch but they’re smart enough to progress a long way, and they’ve got nothing to play for in the Primera Liga, so why not? Stranger things have happened, and Spanish clubs tend to do very well in the UEFA Europa League. Granada have applied themselves well in this competition this season, and have taken it seriously too. I would not want to underestimate such a team right now.

That said, Granada are not in a great place at the moment with regard to absentees. For a mid table team, they do have quite a big squad but it’s being really stretched at the moment. For example, their attack is generally Molina or Soldado assigned the task of scoring goals whilst Suarez/Machis flanks them – but the latter duo are both injured at the moment, which can lead to isolation of the other players, neither of which are young nowadays! They still have Kenedy to support them but support for their forwards is limited here, particularly with Milla, Montoro, and Milla all out in midfield.

Vallejo, German Sanchez, and Neva are all out in defence too, which is why so many are taking a punt on Molde FK tonight. I’m not swayed, though. I still think that Granada are still a bit too organised, a bit too composed, and frankly a bit too good for Molde FK tonight. I’m not even close to being bold enough to back the Spaniards to get a positive result, not with so many players out, but I do think that they can stifle them and try to have more players back for the return leg of the tie. The last thing they want to do is give much away tonight, so I expect a typically cautious approach from Granada, which I assume will be echoed by their opponents. One final thing to consider is that Molde FK are not clinical finishers; they tend to be at their best when given space because it allows them to miss chances before taking them. When restricted chances, they seldom score against good teams because they’re wasteful.

With that in mind, backing under 2.5 goals at 11/10 appeals to me.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.