TFT Issue 3371!

Melbourne City vs Macarthur FC

KO: 08:05 (UK time)

The thing to be mindful of when betting in the A-League is that things can change very quickly. The same can be said of any league, I suppose, but it’s especially true at this level. Ever wondered why a lot of the Twitter tipsters don’t tend to cover the A-League? It’s because relying exclusively on past statistics means very little at this level, which means you only really have any idea of what’s going to happen if you watch the games, which they don’t.

You see, on statistics alone, backing City to win today is a good idea. They’ve just beaten Sydney FC, Western Sydney Wanderers, and Melbourne Victory, scoring eleven goals in the process; they must be the best team in Australia – right? I don’t think so. I think they got lucky with Corica being in charge of Sydney FC, which has somehow made them even more complacent than before, and they walked right into every City trap. And as for Victory – well, what do you expect from a demoralised team with almost no fit defenders other than a massacre? I was actually more impressed with City in their ‘lesser’ win against Western Sydney Wanderers because they completely suppressed a very challenging opponent, laden with individual threats. At the end of the day, I’ll give City credit for taking their chances well but at 3/4, they’re simply not worth backing to beat Macarthur FC today. I just don’t see any value there.

Personally, I’d need about 11/10 in order to back City to win this game. They’re the better side, and certainly the team with the more cohesion for obvious reasons, but there’s still not that much in it. Why do you think that City still can’t win the title, despite having money pumped into the club, and constantly trying to find new ways to bend the rules? They’re bottlers, basically. They’ve always had the quality, ever since they were bought out, changing from Melbourne Heart into Melbourne City, but they’ve still never won it. I don’t know about you folks, but that’s not a team I’d back to beat another good team at 3/4, home or away.

Note how Sydney FC’s attacking nature and slow defenders played into City’s hands, and how Victory’s inability to control the game, let alone defend, made it more like a training exercise for City. Today, though, they’re up against a well-organised controlling team with something to offer. I will fear for Macarthur FC if they fall behind because they’ll need to push out in order to get back into the game, and whenever they do that, they look really uncomfortable and tend to end up conceding again. Other than that though, they hold their own really well nowadays. They’ve done it against Sydney FC, Adelaide United, and Brisbane Roar already this season – why not City too? 

If anything, I would argue that Macarthur FC are better at controlling games and defending than they are at attacking, although it’s fair to say that they’ve improved on the latter front now that their players are more familiar with one another. They certainly do manage to test their opponents more than they used to with intricate final third play, although being totally blocked off (as they were against the Mariners last time out) still presents them with a problem that they’re yet to solve. If City go defensive today, I really don’t think that Macarthur FC can beat them.

Macarthur FC like these kind of games though. They don’t like being harassed too much, and they certainly don’t like teams parking the bus. City have a reasonable press and do defend well, but still try to score goals and win games, so it’s not curtains for the visitors. They’ll get their opportunities here, basically, and whether Derbyshire and co. take them is up to them. Opponents like Phoenix and the Mariners are not the kind of teams that Macarthur FC can deal with right now, but a match against Melbourne City, without any pressure on them? Let’s just say that I wouldn’t be surprised if they got something from this game.

I still don’t think the 1×2 market is worth touching though. Refereeing standards at A-League level are seriously poor; penalties are given for very little sometimes, and if City were to take the lead, I think they’d most likely get a second because of Macarthur FC pushing out. Macarthur FC could hold a lead if they got it too, so as I said above, no 1×2 market for me. The concept of this being a low-scoring affair is an intriguing one though. With Luna out for the hosts, it means that the duress is on MacLaren and Noone to do the damage, which they can do, but City don’t support their attackers like other teams in Australia do, which makes me worry for them.

You see, Kisnorbo seems to want to compartmentalise his team i.e. each segment only contributes in a certain way; there’s no real fluidity or freedom there. That can often leave the City attackers in isolation, especially when one of them is out, because they just don’t want to risk sending more men forward and potentially falling behind. Therefore, lining up against a team that knows how to defend without one of their three best attacking options is potentially a problem for City. I won’t deny that the home team still have more match-winners than their opponents, but I think they’re in for a complicated game, City.

With the proviso that City don’t score early on, backing under 3 goals at 17/20 makes a lot of sense to me here as these two teams are both very aware defensively. The fact that one of Macarthur FC’s best routes to goal is from corners should tell you where their strengths lie! 

Verdict: Under 3 goals at 17/20.

Istanbul BB vs Besiktas JK 

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

Despite finally managing to win a match last time out, Istanbul BB hardly covered themselves in glory against a despondent Genclerbirligi, the likes of which I don’t recall seeing before. They dominated from start to finish, Istanbul BB, and it still took until the dying embers of the match in order for Ba to give them the lead. The goal itself was borne more of fortune than anything with a tame long range effort being weakly pushed out by Nordfeldt for the Senegalese hitman to tap home. They squandered so many good opportunities though, and there isn’t an easier Super Lig opponent than Genclerbirligi right now. It makes me think that they might just get relegated after all because if they can’t score the majority of their billions of chances against a team like that, then they’re not going to score many against others.

I mean, the reigning champions are at home against title hopefuls Besiktas JK tonight. Things are now so good at the Super Lig heavyweights that there is even talk of Cenk Tosun getting fit again! They’re powering past teams really well at the moment, and considering the amount of chances they’re still squandering per game, it’s amazing. Galatasaray are starting to drop off a touch so I was thinking of making Besiktas JK favourites to win the Super Lig this season – until Ozil got injured. As expected, Fenerbahce look far better without Ozil than with, hence their 3-0 win in Konya. I do think it’ll be between Besiktas JK and Fenerbahce though, unless Galatasaray get back on the wagon soon.

Besiktas JK have won five games on the spin now, and they’ve deserved it. They’ve had easier fixtures than most, it’s true, but they’ve played like title hopefuls should, winning professionally. Yalcin has struck a perfect balance in this squad, even somehow making Larin into a useful forward. They’ve got Tore back into a reasonable condition, Tosun back to lighten Aboubakar’s load, and a seriously experienced group of players. They look like champions to me, to be honest. 

What are Istanbul BB going to do to stop this team? I mean, nobody else seems to be able to. Every obstacle thrown in front of Besiktas JK is overcome, and usually with gusto! They react expertly to every situation, and do enough to win every single time. I wish I could find something bad to say about Besiktas JK but other than them not taking enough chances, there really isn’t anything! Why they’d pass up an opportunity like this to pick up three points, I don’t know.

On paper, Istanbul BB should be able to trouble Besiktas JK. The reality is that they’re not though. They’re too wasteful in the final third, both with passes and chance conversion. They’re too slow to react to situations, especially at the back, and few of their players actually look like they want to be there right now. They’re still no fools, Istanbul BB, so I don’t expect a massacre. These two teams are simply heading in opposite directions at the moment though, and with nothing stopping the visitors, I expect yet another Besiktas JK win.

Verdict: Besiktas JK to win at 4/5.

Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

Mid-season, I would not back this outcome. I mean, a draw at Heidenheim is a good result in the Bundesliga 2, and there’s not a great deal at stake at that time. However, now we’re in the business end of the season, all matches matter – and this one does for both teams, not just promotion hopefuls Kiel.

No, last season’s promotion play-off runners-up Heidenheim are making a late surge for promotion once more, and with the attack that they now have, not to mention the mental strength they’ve had for years, I would not bet against it. Their recruitment has been fantastic over the years, always finding good replacements for those that have left, and that was the case again this season too. For example, they lost beanpole striker Kleindienst to AA Gent in Belgium because of his prolific goal-scoring record at this level, and signed Kuhlwetter from Kaiserslautern to replace him (different kind of forward, though). Kuhlwetter hit the ground running, scored lots of goals, but Heidenheim still looked a bit predictable as it was mostly just him. Meanwhile in Belgium, Kleindienst was struggling to make an impact for a variety of reasons, none of which related directly to him, so Heidenheim were actually able to re-sign him in 2021. Subsequently, they’re now able to use Kleindienst through the middle, and drift Kuhlwetter out wide – and that has given Heidenheim a deadly attack.

Suddenly, a lot of games that were ending in draws are now ending in wins for Heidenheim. There’s not much between teams at this level, and promotion races are generally decided by who keeps their composure the best. Heidenheim have very much chucked their hat back into the ring with the signing of Kleindienst, and only the hilarious St. Pauli have picked up more points than they have over their last five outings. Karlsruher SC are starting to slow down, as expected, Furth are because they’re short of rotation options, and Hamburger SV are doing their usual bottling trick, so why not Heidenheim? Again – I would not bet against them being promoted.

However, what I would say is that in order to push Kleindienst into the same side as Kuhlwetter, Heidenheim have had to switch their style a tad, which has made them more attacking. Now, whilst you’re bagging two goals per game – which they are – it tends not to matter because you’ll beat most teams playing that way. What’s slipping under the radar is that Heidenheim are actually conceding a lot more goals though. More than that – they’re giving away too many chances, never mind goals scored. It’s not come back to hurt them just yet – but it will, possibly even tonight. If Heidenheim are to beat Kiel, they’re going to have to score enough goals to deal with that problem – and I don’t know if they can or not. Kiel are not Osnabruck, after all!

It’s difficult for me to describe what’s impressed me the most about Kiel this season because it’s a lot of things at once. For example, I love how easily they’ve switched from being an attacking team into being a defensive team. I love how they’re mentally strong enough to win games, whether they play well or not. I love how nothing fazes them. I remember watching them put Bayern out of the DFB Pokal, and the best part of it was that they deserved it. They set themselves up marvellously, defended heroically, and pinpointed Bayern’s weak spots. Tactically speaking, Kiel have seriously matured this season.

It’s prevented them from being their typical over 2.5 goals selves, though – and that’s what would have stopped me from backing over 2.5 goals tonight if the game had been played mid-season. Right now though? I think they can be ‘talked’ into an over 2.5 goals game by the right opponent, which Heidenheim are. The home team need the win; that’s not a secret. I also think that Kiel need the win though. I doubt they’ll be particularly interested in how confident I personally am in them having the right mental strength to get promoted this season, you know? It’s points that count, and there’s not a lot in it at the top of the table. It may be hilarious to laugh and point at Hamburger SV falling over again, but what if they suddenly rectify their issues with some kind of voodoo witch doctor or something? Alright, the suggested solution may be a joke, but if Hamburger SV do actually manage to show what they’re capable of, then they’re the best team in the division by a long way – and suddenly Kiel are in trouble because Bochum are better at grinding out wins than they are.

Subsequently, I’m left feeling like Kiel have to go for three points tonight. Now, I don’t think they’ll go gung-ho in Heidenheim because they wouldn’t make any sense at all. I think they’ll go for their customary 1-0 win, for clarity. However, I think Heidenheim’s formation and goal threat might just throw a spanner in the works because I can’t see Kiel keeping a clean sheet tonight. Therefore, if they are to win – which I concede they’re more likely to do than their hosts – then they’ll need to score at least twice. Can they do it? Time will tell. Heidenheim are playing bloody well though, so I’d rather just avoid the 1×2 market altogether!

Backing over 2.5 goals at 19/20 looks a risk worth taking to me at this moment in time though.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 19/20.

Neuchatel Xamax vs FC Schaffhausen 

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

Is anyone else struggling to figure out why Schaffhausen are priced as long as they are to win at the Maladiere? Xamax have a strong home record at this level, it’s true, but that’s based on when they had good squads; not because of their current crop!

There has been a mini-resurgence in Neuchatel recently, but that’s still only resulted in them beating bottom of the table Chiasso – and even that only came from a divine improvised flick from Dominguez from a corner, nothing they’d actually prepared in training! Other than that, they’ve drawn at SC Kriens, and lost at FC Wil. It’s hardly the stuff dreams are made of for the team relegated from the Super League last season, is it? I don’t think they can ask for any more, though. Surviving another relegation is their most realistic target after selling almost all of their starting eleven pre-season. Since then, they changed manager (Binotto joined in January) and their owner has stepped down so it’s really not a good time for the club as a whole. Recalling the time when this club actually went into receivership, I bet a few fans’ arses have started twitching this season! I think they’re bloody lucky to have a part-time outfit like Chiasso in the same division as them – for now.

Everything Xamax have tried this season has failed, for the most part. Frick came in on loan to be the target man – he’s been injured, for the most part. Spanish midfielder Parapar joined pre-season to be their midfield maestro but injury problems and a lack of players on the same wavelength as him has caused more problems than solutions. Defensive midfielder Basha joined for his experience and control of games; he’s been injured a lot (and is tonight). Pasche has been injured since he joined, youngster Texieira has let himself down on this loan spell, and even Koura, who joined in 2021, is yet to bag his first goal after seven appearances. Part of me feels sorry for them because they have tried, but half of me says they’ve got what they’ve deserved, especially after parting ways with the likes of Haile-Selassie pre-season for no reason.

I’d have enough ammunition to oppose this team in general, to be honest, but after seeing their absentees tonight, it’s only cemented my opinion. As well as the usual group of absentees, they’ve now lost Nuzzolo who has been one of the best players in the division over the past few years. Even at thirty-seven years of age, he’s a complete class act, and this team relies heavily on him in a number of ways. Being without him is like missing a limb. There is no replacement for Nuzzolo, and yet they’ve got to face one of the best teams in the division without his services. Ouch! 

I won’t deny that Schaffhausen have shown a few nerves lately as they bid to return to the Super League for the first time in a while. That defeat against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last time out wasn’t ideal, for example, and drawing with Chiasso was particularly poor, as was their display on the night. I also think they’ll be kicking themselves for throwing the three points away against Grasshopper Zurich when they were the better team. Ex-Grasshopper Zurich manager Yakin, now the Schaffhausen boss,  will certainly have been displeased at doing so!

However, for the most part this season, Schaffhausen have looked resolute, effective, and more convincing than any other team in the division, even after cutting Rodriguez loose early in 2021. They do need to find defensive solutions because they’re always missing someone, you know? Usually it’s Neitzke through injury; tonight it’s Hamdiu. At least Mujcic can stay fit, huh? I think the number of chances this team gives away from set pieces this season is thoroughly indicative of a lack of consistency at the back too.

This team does hurt teams really well though, and it’s not just because they’ve got good players either. They never fear opponents, they’re not afraid to work hard, they can score from pretty much every scenario you can think of, and they’re more than happy to commit numbers forward. To have all that in a team that has quality players with good attitudes is rare, and is very much the work of talented yet outspoken boss Yakin. His team may need to do a bit of work in order to be taken seriously as promotion contenders but he’ll steer them there, I am sure. 

Schaffhausen are capable of being twice the team that Xamax are though, whether Nuzzolo plays for the home team or not. The quality gap at this level is seldom large but it is tonight, enough so for a very confused expression to descend upon my face at seeing odds of 13/10 on the away win. Whether the tip comes in or not, it’s a bargain to back the away win here; if Schaffhausen approach the game properly, they’ll win it – it’s that simple. 

Verdict: FC Schaffhausen to win at 13/10.

Gaz Metan Medias vs Universitatea Craiova

KO: 18:30 (UK time)

Today’s match in Romania is an example of why the form guide doesn’t always tell the full story. Universitatea are indeed the better team, and I cannot deny that they should win this match – but part of me would be surprised to see it.

For starters, I’m beginning to question Universitatea’s motivation – and so are they, by the looks of things. They’ve had a good campaign but can they realistically hope for a higher placed finish than third with FCSB and CFR Cluj slugging it out ahead of them? I don’t believe so. Are Sepsi, ten points behind, going to catch them? Doubtful; nobody below Universitatea plays consistently well enough to make up such a gap. Subsequently, I’m left feeling like Universitatea’s motivation levels are not what they were. Yes, they’ve still won games lately but they’ve had to ride their luck you know?

I appreciate that they’re going to be a defensive team anyway. I mean, ex-Greek international centre-back Ouzounidis is in charge, and year after year of being sacked in record time has led him to stick to what he knows best; defending. I’d actually like to see this team compete with a more attack-minded manager in charge because more can be got from this group, especially Ivan. For now though, they’re stuck with a defensive manager, which has led to Mourinho-esque defensive displays. That’s why they only just limped past part-timers Chindia Targoviste in the Cup recently. 

From their past twenty-one Liga 1 games, Universitatea have only won twice when their opponents have scored. That in itself should sound the alarm bells because most teams that score against them, get a point or more from the encounter. Universitatea might be hard to beat, but they can be stopped by the right team. Perhaps tonight will be a lucky one for Gaz Metan Medias. I mean, the visitors’ displays have dropped off lately, as I said, and they’ve got some serious absentees to contend with right now with Acka, Ofosu, Koljic, and Nistor absent, as well as Balasa and Screciu both being doubtful. That’s half of their attackers out, one of their best defenders potentially out, and central midfielder Nistor out, for whom only goalkeeper Pigliacelli boasts as many appearances this season. That combination leaves me uneasy with regard to the away team.

Furthermore, Gaz Metan Medias have actually played rather well lately, not that you’d know it from the form guide, which shows four straight defeats in Liga 1. Let’s be fair though – they’ve faced the two best teams in Romania during that period, and ran both of them bloody close, FCSB needing a 92nd minute header from Tanase to take the three points home. They’ve looked good at the back, Gaz Metan Medias, and even without Baco (Czech defender) tonight I expect them to continue in their battle to stay up.

I also think that Gaz Metan Medias have done well in attack though. It may just be me, but this team never seems to struggle to create chances. When I last covered Romanian football on this site, that wasn’t so much of an issue because the Brazilian star that was Eric was there to score the goals as and when required. Many moons have passed since then, but some things never change; Gaz Metan Medias still create chances easily, but struggle to take them. Hilariously, they’ve actually re-signed Eric this year, despite Voluntari and Viitorul Constanta respectively both barely getting a handful of matches from him per season for the past four years. He’s yet to feature since his return, but I’ll be most amused when if/when it does happen.

Lately, they’ve lacked luck more than anything, Gaz Metan Medias, you know? Against a defensive, predictable Universitatea, I’d like to think that their luck would be back in tonight. I mean, they’ve got more than enough skilful players to get at a team that sits back; they just need someone to be composed enough to take one of those chances. Sometimes I wonder if this team would be better off with a proper target man for instances like these because they tend to leave players with great chances, even if they’re not scoring, and even poor finishers can score those. This is not a bad team, though – that’s what I want to convey here. They’re getting a lot right at the moment but just need that bit of luck, and an under-strength away team might be just what the Doctor ordered for them.

With the above in mind, I’m tempted by a flutter on Gaz Metan Medias to avoid defeat at evens, especially with every point vital to them at the moment in their battle against the drop. It seldom takes more than one goal to stop Universitatea from winning either.

Verdict: Gaz Metan Medias to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at evens.

SC Kriens vs Grasshopper Zurich

KO: 19:00 (UK time)

Ah, just the type of fixture that Grasshopper Zurich didn’t want at the business end of the season! Much like Hamburger SV in Germany, Switzerland’s most prestigious club are complete bottlers. They embarrassed themselves in the promotion battle last season, and I use the term ‘battle’ very loosely because it was an absolute massacre; Grasshopper Zurich could not have failed to be promoted – but that’s what happened. Their heads went, and they threw it all away. The signs this season are very similar too. I mean, one win in five now? And even that came in the Schweizer Pokal. Is that their focus now – to somehow get past Young Boys Bern (when they almost inevitably beat St. Gallen) and win a Cup rather than getting promoted to the Super League? Crazy.

They’ve had some hard games lately, Grasshopper, but none that they’re unable to win. No, the problem they have is that they’re too stale now, hence the acquisition of da Silva. He’s not God, though – he’s just a good winger. Grasshopper need an attitude shift in order to be taken seriously in the promotion battle. You know, every single time they face minnows Chiasso, they look crap – and that’s not a coincidence. It’s because Grasshopper don’t work hard enough – ever. If they worked as hard as Chiasso, they’d be back in the Super League by now. Instead, by far the best team in the division are still languishing in the Challenge League, and looking unlikely to get promoted any time soon.

When I say ‘stale’, what I mean is that everything is very safe at Grasshopper nowadays. I appreciate that Pereira brought in a more possession-based game since taking over but this is not possession football with a purpose now; it’s possession purely for the sake of possession. They’re too easy to fend off, to frustrate, and to contain. They’ve still got the individuals to hurt teams, of course – that’s why I seldom oppose them – but they’re doing nothing to make me fear them right now. 

For me, the proof in the pudding is how few goals their forwards have scored this season. You’re not going to be able to convince me that Kosovan target man Demhasaj doesn’t know how to find the net at this level, or that Bonatini and Ponde find it too hard. No, the service isn’t there, and the reason it’s not there is because there aren’t enough men making good runs in behind, taking chances with the ball, or overloading their opponents. It all just makes Grasshopper predictable. They’re still not conceding many, and thus aren’t losing many, but they’re certainly not winning enough, and nor are they deserving of more than they’ve got.

The pressure is all on Grasshopper right now – and they don’t have the balls for that situation. They may be considerably better than hosts Kriens but unless they can prove it, it means nothing. The main issue they’ll have with proving it is that Kriens are just like Chiasso in the sense that they bring a strong work ethic and good organisation into each game. Where Kriens become better than Chiasso is in their attacking department, where they’ve now acquired both Luan and Sessolo to keep them fast, clicking, and unpredictable. It stops them from being hemmed in, even if they’re not finding the back of the net as often as they’d like.

Kriens themselves haven’t won many lately, but they’ve improved. I mean, they’re a bottom four team in a very competitive division; let’s be realistic with our expectations, shall we? I can accept them not winning at Winterthur, FC Schaffhausen, or FC Thun – they’re unbelievably hard fixtures for an average team. I still thought they applied themselves marvellously though, and made themselves very hard to beat. That’s what makes them the kind of team that Grasshopper tend to embarrass themselves against because they don’t want it as much as their opponents, and they need a team to come at them in order to find spaces. Kriens aren’t going to do that! They’re just going to sit back and counterattack, and they’re good at it too.

With Kryeziu having now slotted into their back four, they look more confident when dealing with opponents. They may be yet to click up front but there’s no pressure tonight, and they get to play on the break, so perhaps it’ll be their lucky night. I wouldn’t be so bold as to pick a winner here, though. I mean, Kriens are missing midfielders in a game where they simply can’t afford any absentees, not if they want to win it. They’ve got enough to get at least a draw here though, and I think they’d have to make a colossal error here in order to mess it up.

The combination of Grasshopper feebly trying to break down a team that defends well makes me interpret this game as a big under 2.5 goals affair, and at 9/10, I’m all over it.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Augsburg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach 

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

You know, I really wish there was a rule about clubs/managers speaking out about manager moves mid-season. I just don’t think it’s fair for a number of reasons. For me, Gladbach have been one of the better German teams to watch this season, playing exciting, energetic attacking football. Every time I’ve watched them, I’ve seen Marco Rose’s name tattooed all over their displays because they remind me so much of his Salzburg team, who were good at everything. It’s been a real success story at Borussia Park this season. However, now Dortmund have announced that he’ll be their manager next season, Gladbach suddenly can’t string two passes together, and again, it’s just not fair. If the talented manager wants to go and ruin his career at a dying club, that’s his business – but it should not have been published now. 

I genuinely think that this news has completely derailed Gladbach’s campaign. What’s worse is the cynical side of me which says that Gladbach were Dortmund’s main competitors for the fourth UEFA Champions League place (with Leverkusen more than just floundering in 2021) so I can’t help wondering how deliberate it was. The Gladbach project has been ruined, and these players no longer display the same hunger that they initially did at the start of the season. Who else remembers watching them host and beat Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League? I do. They weren’t the better team, per se, but they won it because they were smarter, and they wanted it more. They had to ride their luck, but they earned that luck with their work ethic on the night. When I watched Gladbach now though, knowing that Rose is going, they just don’t seem interested anymore.

Two of their bigger culprits on that front have been French forwards Plea and Thuram. It’s nothing new for Plea to be inconsistent, really – it’s rather typical of an ex-Lyon academy graduate – but it’s really sad to see Thuram in such a way. He’s come on so much this season, and has such a great future ahead of him. Now he just looks lost though, and low on confidence, like most of his teammates. They’re not just failing to win games at the moment, Gladbach – they’re failing to score goals, and that’s a huge problem for an attack-minded team.

Take their home defeat against Leverkusen last time out, for example. There’s nothing shameful about losing to Leverkusen in general, but there is when they’re injury-ravaged, bereft of confidence, and have been playing badly for weeks – and Gladbach went down without so much as a whimper. It was a great time to face Dortmund in the DFB Pokal too – again, went down without a whimper. They started brightly enough in Leipzig prior to that but again, didn’t want it enough, and threw it away at the end. They’ve lost their belief as well as their effectiveness, Gladbach, and I can’t see a team like that winning in Augsburg tonight.

Augsburg themselves are not perfect but they at least commit to each game they play in – well, the majority! I do remember one particularly lacklustre display in Bremen earlier in the campaign, but those types of display are quite rare from Augsburg. In general, this team will want it more than their opponents, and they’re flexible enough nowadays to get it too. Seldom have I seen them defend in as accomplished a manner as they have been this season. I still wouldn’t call them a good defensive team, but the way that every player has each other’s back and has the awareness to spot danger has been really encouraging.

Augsburg’s party piece is their attack, though. They’ve had some injury problems this season with Finnish dribbler Jensen, who is still out tonight, and Richter too. I’m also wondering when they’re going to cut their losses with Icelandic beast Finnbogason in attack, who has been injured for the past two or three years with brief intervals in between. If it was Messi or Ronaldo, I could live with it because of what they’d contribute when they were actually on the pitch but the trouble is that Finnbogason is quite clearly scarred by his injuries. This is not the same man I’ve watched destroy defences at both club and international level in the past. He’s no longer capable of being a Bundesliga striker, in short. 

The beauty of Augsburg is that they actually don’t rely on their strikers for goals though. Funny, isn’t it? Whether it’s one of the few occasions when Finnbogason is fit, or whether it’s their usual bruiser Niederlecher, Herrlich’s men prioritise intelligent runs off the target man or swift counters as more viable routes to goal. When you’ve got a midfield containing Caligiuri, Jensen (when fit), Vargas, Hahn, and now Benes too, you’re going to score goals; it’s that simple. I should include Richter in that equation too because he’s one hell of a threat when playing as an inside forward, and never seems to stop running.

They’ve got good enough sitters in Gruezo/Oxford to not have to worry about their defenders, and powerful enough forwards to not have to worry about opponents coming back at them too often, so the Augsburg midfielders have all the time in the world to do as they see fit, and that’s how the team scores goals as frequently as they do. Getting past their midfield industry is one thing, and breaking them down is another, but to also have to keep tabs on a team that scores goals? It’s really complicated to deal with Augsburg, basically, and the only German teams I’ve seen do it well are those with clinical enough finishers to kill the game off. Ordinarily, Gladbach would fall into that category, but right now they do nothing for me, I’m afraid.

With that in mind, I’m happy to back Augsburg to get something from tonight’s match. Fun fact – they’ve only lost against Gladbach in one home game over the past thirteen years. 

Verdict: Augsburg to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at evens.

Stade de Reims vs Olympique Lyonnais

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

The Stade de Reims form guide at the moment is presentable, to say the least, and so it should be. All that surprised me about this team this season is that it took as long as it did for them to get going because all of the pieces were in place for them to be a real problem team to encounter.

I’ve been impressed with Reims in 2021; no doubts about it. I remember watching them win at Strasbourg earlier in the year, and that’s a tough away game. Strasbourg don’t give much away unless you force them to – and Reims forced them. The scoreline shows it was a 1-0 win, but based on the balance of play, and the chances created, I’d have said 4-1 to Reims would have been fairer. That’s the thing with them though; they don’t convert enough of their opportunities. Creating them really hasn’t been a problem, and again, I’m not surprised by it, not with Berisha and Zeneli making things happen. Converting them is an issue though.

What Gulon’s done at this club is make them uncomfortable to face. He’s not made them efficient, but he has made them flexible, and containing them has become very challenging. In order to do so, however, he’s had to roll with more athletic threats and skilful creators rather than composed finishers – and it shows. A lot of their draws in 2021 should have been wins but they let themselves down on the day. I cited the Strasbourg example earlier, and I can’t begin to tell you how many chances they squandered before finally converting one. 

I wouldn’t fancy coming up against Toure, Mbuku, Sierhuis, or in-form Dia at any point, but it would be more than a stretch to describe any of them as a clinical finisher. Now, this hasn’t hurt Reims as much lately as it could have because they’ve mostly faced teams at good times. For example, Montpellier HSC have been out of sorts for most of 2021, Nantes are onto manager number three or four of the season etc. Credit where it’s due – Reims still produced professional, industrious displays, and avoided defeat. Better teams will punish them for not scoring such opportunities though – and that’s where Lyon comes in.

Garcia has not only made them better offensively but also better defensively. When they miss either Marcelo or Denayer, I do have my concerns as Lyon have no depth. However, when they’re both playing – like they should be tonight – then Lyon tend to keep teams out well. It’s not that that duo is amazing, although they do work well together. It’s more about the seriously hard-working, intelligent midfielders now ahead of them. Whether it’s Mendes, Guimaraes, or both, Lyon’s defence now has some seriously good protection, and that means that Lyon are now capable of winning games efficiently, hence their title challenge.

They have Brazilian creator Paqueta back tonight, which is handy as he’s been phenomenal since joining them. I’d take him over Aouar any day of the week but both have had their moments this season. It’s nice to see Aouar working harder, actually – I suspect he’s been embarrassed into doing so by those around him. He’ll be a much better player for such an experience whenever he does move on. Arguably their unsung hero of the season has been Cornet, though. He came through as a winger, played as an inside forward, and is now often deployed as a wing-back – and the latter really, really suits him! It’s become a very slick and effective Lyon team, in essence.

Their forwards have been brilliant too. Pushing Dembele out of the door was a smart call; the only stupid thing they did was turn down bids in the summer for the horribly overrated frontman. As expected, Kadewere and Toko Ekambi have been far more effective, (the former is available tonight, contrary to what has been reported), and Depay has been as superb as ever. I genuinely hope he stays at Lyon; there’s nothing better waiting for him in Barcelona at this moment in time so why leave? Wonderkid Cherki deserves a mention too. His goals tally may not be high, but he contributes far more than that in general build-up play. 

In short, this Lyon side now has balance, consistency, and efficiency. They know how to press well, how to sit back and soak it up, and almost always take their chances. I’ve not seen a Lyon team like this for a decade now, and it’s really nice to have them back. This is the kind of team that can not only restrict the chances created by Reims (and thus the goals scored) but can also punish them for playing their defenders further up the pitch. Reims are no fools, but they’re up against a terrific Lyon team, and I honestly don’t think there’s anything the home team can do to prevent the visitors from ‘doing a job’ on them tonight.

Therefore, I’m on Lyon to beat the -1 Asian Handicap.

Verdict: Olympique Lyonnais to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 87/100.