TFT Issue 3372!

Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United

KO: 08:10 (UK time)

Both of these two teams have had their respective issues this season but I really can’t fathom why I can get such good odds on the visitors today. Adelaide United’s problems are far less severe than those of their hosts, and they’ve dealt with them better too.

I mean, Adelaide United lacked experience at the start of the season. They played good football but only when allowed to, you know? They were too easily bullied out of games, and they had no counterattack to speak of when in such situations. Subsequently, the club – after getting defender Lopez fit again – brought Goodwin home, and now they look far better in such situations (see highlights of their win over the Jets last time out as an example of how they won a game that they didn’t have a physical advantage in). Adelaide are solving problems, basically. Now, that can take some time, admittedly, but I’m happy with them. I know what they’re about, and I know they’re progressing.

When it comes to Victory though, I really can’t say much that’s positive about them. I do think that, if they actually had a playmaker or two, they’d score a lot of goals. They don’t though, and the closest they have to such is out-of-form, injured rojas. Subsequently, all final third passes from them tend to be either overhit or under-hit. Victory have more than enough speed in wide positions to carve teams open, and a seriously good target man in Gestede in the middle for when that happens – but if the ball isn’t played to the wide man at the right speed, and in the right area, then Victory just don’t hurt teams enough. 

So what do their opponents do? Simple – they force Victory to play long balls by pressing high and hard. Victory do have the speed to get in behind but Kruse goes down too easy and Kamsoba’s timing of runs and finishing is poor, meaning it’s only McManaman that can really make anything happen – and even he struggles to last more than seventy minutes. That means that the ball is often inside Victory’s half, and that in turn leads me to their other big issue; defending. With a full-strength defence, they’re quite good. However, this is far from a full-strength defence, as their last two results should show you, and that makes me fear for them today.

Interestingly, boss Brebner said he was really glad to have left-back Traore returning from injury today because he’s been missed a lot. I won’t deny that Traore is arguably the most consistent left-back in Australian football but his young replacement Markovic did a really good job when thrown in at the deep end. He was their best player against Western United, and he did all he could against Nabbout against City. Folks got a bit carried away with Nabbout’s display after that game; I thought he had a good second-half, but Markovic dealt with him really well in the first-half. Personally, I think they’ve missed their centre-backs more. Shotton has been their best defender this season, bar none, and he’s still injured. Ryan was brought in to play fairly regularly; he’s been injured a lot, is still injured now, and has made mistakes when on the pitch. Ansell is experienced but again, injury-prone, although he can play today.

Subsequently, Victory have been fielding midfielder Brxham in the middle of defence or have relied on unproven youngster Anderson. They’ve done all that they can but centre-back has been a far more challenging area to cover than left-back, especially with goalkeeper Crcombe under a lot of pressure from the Victory fans due to too many errors made, which happened again against City. Traore’s return is not going to magically make all this better for Brebner. No Shotton and no Ryan leaves a big hole in the middle of an incredibly nervous defence, and given their problems with transitions too, I really don’t see Victory winning today. The most they’ve done lately to stop the rot is bring their former first-team coach de Marigny back to help Brebner out. It goes without saying that Victory fans have now been protesting against the way the club is being ran, even turning up at training sessions with banners to demonstrate. This is not a team that has a level pegging chance of beating Adelaide United, folks – sorry. I’m not saying it’s impossible; I just don’t see why the bookies think it’s as possible as this.

One thing I will say is that, in order for me to be as happy with this tip as I was when I wrote yesterday, I need Juric to start up front. He was supposed to be back last weekend, and didn’t even get onto the bench. Now that Mohamed Toure has a hamstring injury (and he’ll be out for almost two months, incidentally) it’s imperative that Juric returns; nobody else can lead that line effectively, and without such, Adelaide United will find it really hard to hurt teams, even with Goodwin back in town. He’s supposed to be playing in Melbourne today, Juric – that’s what the club have said. If that’s the case, I’m happy to take my chances here.

Adelaide United have won three consecutive games ahead of this one. They were gifted the win against the Mariners by bizarre officiating, were smarter and wanted it more in the game against Western Sydney, and dominated the Jets last time out but needed some grit to see them over the line. Their displays have steadily improved, in other words. By no means are they perfect right now. Frankly, I’m terrified whenever this team gives a set piece away, or starts passing around their back four when under heavy pressure because someone – usually Elsey – will give the ball away. Luckily, it’s not cost them too much this season, and having impressive young Delianov between the sticks has helped there. The Reds do like to make life hard for themselves sometimes though

However, their attacking game has come on leaps and bounds. Goodwin has been remarkable since his return from the Middle East, which cannot be considered a surprise; he’s been too good for this level for a long time now. With him on one side, Halloran on the other, and Mauk driving forward from the middle of the park, Adelaide United have clever players that make good runs, and all of which are generally good finishers, both in the air and with their feet. In order to be effective though, they do need a frontman ahead of them, if only as a distraction. Teenager Toure did that job well before his injury, and Juric has done it well this season too, but playing without either (which happened for part of the game against the Jets) made them look uncomfortable. 

Assuming Juric is back today though, I see no reason to doubt the visitors. Victory are a shadow of their former selves, and the way they were easily dominated for ninety minutes by City last time out was an abomination. There’s a very real chance that Adelaide United could blow them away today if things go as they could. For me, 83/100 on the visitors winning with draw no bet is a risk well worth taking here.

Verdict: Adelaide United to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

ADO Den Haag vs Heracles Almelo 

KO: 17:45 (UK time)

As good as the improvements ADO Den Haag have made in 2021 are, they need to start winning games. You’re not awarded Eredivisie points for improved displays, after all. They’re already seven points adrift of VVV Venlo, and that’s after VVV Venlo lost five games in a row. Giakoumakis won’t be out forever though, and RKC Waalwijk are playing well so if ADO Den Haag aren’t careful, avoiding the relegation battle altogether may soon be impossible.

There’s still the relegation play-off route, I suppose, but even Willem II are picking up more points than they are despite sacking their best manager of the past few years – Koster. For me, ADO Den Haag just need that one result to really get them going, you know? In general, I think they’ve shown good spirit lately, and have attacked well. They’ve not always scored but the chances have been there, as has the intent. I’ve been one of the biggest critics of this team for years now but I really can’t fault what they’ve done this season other than to say that perhaps they did their best business too late in the season.

It can’t be denied that they’ve got good players on their books now, at least. Their defensive recruits have been disappointing in the sense that Zuiverloon and Janmaat – both as capable getting forward as they are at the back – have been injured. Their attacking effectiveness has improved though, and with their former hero El Khayati back on their books after a stint in the Middle East, that cannot be unexpected. He’s proven in the past that he can carry this team by himself; now he’s surrounded by better players, it feels almost inevitable that ADO Den Haag will turn it on, contrary to the form guide.

It needs to happen soon, though, and not just for momentum and hope but because they’ve got Ajax, Utrecht, and Vitesse coming up, all of which are difficult opponents at the best of times. No, I think they need to go for the jugular today, ADO Den Haag, and they might just do it. I’ve certainly seen better Heracles Almelo sides than this in the past, and it’s definitely one of the hosts’ ‘easier’ remaining fixtures. 

The problem with beating Heracles Almelo is that they’re still playing to the old Bosz blueprint from years ago. Essentially, they just try and outscore every team they come up against in the Eredivisie. That doesn’t tend to go too favourably against the top teams in the country, understandably, but it works quite well against the rest – and that’s despite them no longer having the artificial turf home advantage that the Polman used to have. Everything about Heracles Almelo is now very much about their efforts on the pitch, and it’s a joy to watch at times.

I stand by what I said before, though – they’ve had better squads than this. Whether you go back to the time of Dougles, Armenteros, or Weghorst, this team has never been short of goal-scoring threats. Now, though? They look a bit weak in that area. Even Turkish wonderkid Kutucu, on loan from Schalke 04, has failed to make the desired mpact. There’s no shortage of energy, belief, height, or speed, but more a lack of consistent quality. Their good play in the final third is very sporadic, if I can put it that way. In short bursts, they can be very effective, Heracles Almelo, but over the course of ninety minutes, good teams will find ways to beat them.

Well, I say ‘ways’, but it’s no secret that this team does not care much for defending. It’s just not a priority for them, and given the injury problems they constantly seem to have in defence, I can’t say I’m surprised by their apathy. Hardeveld, Breukers, and Propper have all had injury problems at this club, although ironically they’re all available tonight. It’s still a team that is awkward to handle though, you know? A bit like Zulte-Waregem in Belgium; not great at anything, but a dangerous team to try and play on the front foot against. That’s especially true because midfielder Vloet is in the form of his life too, already bagging eleven goals this season.

Historically speaking, Heracles Almelo tend to get a positive result against ADO Den Haag. I would add that this has the potential to be the best ADO Den Haag side in years that they’ve faced though, and I don’t see the home team shutting this game down as they would have in the past, not when they’ve got no option but to go for the three points. Heracles Almelo do not need any encouragement to play open, attacking football, and yet I believe they’ll get it from their desperate hosts. Therefore, no matter which way this one goes, backing over 2.5 goals at 9/10 appeals to me.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

UTA Arad vs FCSB

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

It takes a special set of circumstances for UTA Arad to be beaten heavily. They’ve generally been a well-organised team this season, and only goal-scoring has let them down in Romania. 

However, one of their big trigger points required to significantly oppose them has been hit for this game, which is the absence of centre-back Benga. It’s not unusual for him to be suspended but he’s out tonight with Covid-19, as is left-back Rrubullaku, which means that a team that relies heavily on its defensive structure is without half of its back four tonight. Benga is the big one, though. They’ve been beaten by two goals or more on four occasions this season, UTA Arad – 6-0 against Astra Giurgiu, 3-0 against Sepsi, 3-0 against FCSB, and 3-1 against Gaz Metan Medias – and he was absent for 50% of those games. Even when he played against FCSB in the reversal of this fixture, the team were still beaten convincingly.

They’re not the only two absentees for UTA Arad either, with forward Buhacianu also out. He’s not had a great season but was their top goal-scorer last season, and has remained a constant fixture in the team since then. It’s yet another problem that UTA Arad cannot solve, to be frank. I know they’ve brought Liviu Antal back to Romania after a successful stint in Lithuania but despite being a class act on his day, I have to question whether he has the drive and players around him to show what he’s capable of right now because he’s not done much since signing for UTA Arad.

The above means that tonight’s hosts are horribly short at the back, and still lacking in goals in attack. They’ve played quite poorly lately, being comfortably dominated by FCSB’s title rivals CFR Cluj last time out; how it only ended 1-0 with such a one-sided display, I don’t know. They simply fell apart without Benga, and only slovenly finishing from CFR Cluj spared them an embarrassing defeat. Unless FCSB are in a charitable moode, I can see another long game heading UTA Arad’s way, especially with the 3-0 demolition job in Bucharest earlier this season in mind.

FCSB didn’t play particularly well last time out, although they did at least win thanks to a late header from their campaign’s star, Tanase. That’s the thing with a team like this, though – they can still win, even when they don’t play well. They’ve been defending seriously well though, Cristea, Miron etc. holding things together. Some have said that FCSB are too defensive in general, and that’ll cost them in their title ambitions, but I can’t see that being a true statement, not against a similarly defensive CFR Cluj in the Liga 1 title race! Besides, it’s only become this way since Dennis Man moved on.

Whether they attack or not though, FCSB do score goals. It’s usually Tanase, to be fair – he’s been unplayable this season – but Coman, Olaru, and Morutan have all contributed in a bid to deal with the departure of starlet Man. They’ve got enough in the tank to see out a positive conclusion to the title race though, and one thing that hasn’t changed is their capacity to control games. This is a seriously composed, organised unit that affords their opponents very few opportunities. Goal-shy UTA Arad should realistically have no chance here.

The only real question in my mind is how many FCSB will score. That’ll be the decider as to whether this tip wins or not. Given the absentees on behalf of the home team though, I’m sure you can see why such a pick interests me. UTA Arad haven’t played well lately, FCSB need to win to keep their title hopes alive. A professional display from the capital club should see them win this game comfortably enough, and at 11/10, backing FCSB to beat the -1 Asian Handicap is a risk worth taking. 

Verdict: FCSB to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.