TFT Issue 3373!

Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory 

KO: 05:05 (UK time)

Purely because of Glory’s abject displays over the last couple of weeks, I’m going to back the Mariners to beat them today. I have to admit that I had a touch of trepidation about doing so because, despite the A-League table suggesting otherwise, Glory are the better team with better players. They’ve not been proving it on the pitch of late though, and what’s what encourages me today. Little else would make me back the Mariners without draw no be today.

For clarity, the Mariners aren’t at the top of the table because they’re outplaying everybody. They’re not delivering swashbuckling displays, dominating matches, and pulverising opponents’ goals. No, they’re simply outsmarting teams. They’ve been quite content to be without the ball in their matches, confident in their ability to use it better when the time comes – and that’s come up trumps for them on many occasions this season. Credit has to go to boss Stajcic for that.

Last weekend, I saw a bit of a new dynamic emerging for the Mariners because of the link-up play between Urena and Simon. Sometimes you simply get two players that are naturally in-tune with one another. It’s quite rare, but when it happens, it needs to be nourished – and Stajcic is nourishing those two players. I don’t know why they’re so well-connected, but they are. Subsequently, the Mariners became so strong in attack that Macarthur FC didn’t want to commit too many men forward against them, even though they needed to after falling behind in the first-half. The Mariners now have opponents wondering whether to stick or twist, and it’s such a powerful position for them to be in.

I can’t even sit here and tell you that any of their youngsters will go on to be stars or anything like that. It’s simply a case that everybody is on the same page at this club. Everybody has a role, works hard to do it well, and has no issue whatsoever in providing cover for teammates. They’re good in the air, they’re fast, they’re industrious, and they’re very intelligent too. What’s not to like about this team? I can’t see it lasting forever but whilst it does, the Mariners are really hard to handle. They’re taking chances better than most teams, and they’re containing teams really well too. This is a team that has perfected the ‘smash and grab’ approach – and I expect more of the same today, just as they did in Perth a couple of weeks back.

Glory do have the better team though; I have to make that quite clear for future reference. They’re not showing it at the moment, and that defeat against Phoenix was the worst I’ve seen them play all season long. It’s always risky, over-relying on your forwards to get you through games rather than performing well as a collective, and Glory have been burnt for it twice in a row now. Perhaps it’s fair to say that teams are now comfortably aware of what Garcia’s style is, and how to deal with it. Whilst Ikonomidis is out, the only consistent creator they have is Castro so if you double-up on him, Glory will essentially struggle for creative quality.

The Mariners did it to them in Perth, and Phoenix did it to them in Wollongong. Why not again in Gosford today? This is the time for Garcia to introduce a new style of play to keep his team fresh and unpredictable, but there are no signs of that happening. They’re still attacking too much, leaving their unfamiliar, injury-ravaged defence to pick up the broken pieces at the end of a game. With Oita barely featuring, Langkamp still yet to debutise, and now backup defender Tatafu injured too, things are not good for Glory in defence. I just don’t see how they can realistically hope to keep teams out whilst they pay so little attention at the back, and whilst they voluntarily field Velaphi ahead of Reddy in goal too.

There are positives in this Glory squad, especially in midfield. They’re certainly not an easy team to deal with. However, until they start playing a style that their opponents struggle with again, I envision plenty of A-League teams really looking forward to such meetings. Assuming the Mariners sit back, soak it up, and kill Glory with their chances at the other end, the home win here should be worth some serious consideration. Don’t go thinking it’s a bookmaker error, pricing the league leaders to win this game at 13/10; it’s not. If not for their outstanding form, they’d be priced a lot longer than this! The bookies are in a bit of a bind though, with these overachieving Mariners displays showing no signs of going away, and that’s something I hope to capitalise upon today.

So, yeah – Glory are the better team, but the Mariners look a lot better at the moment, and thus the home win at 13/10 appeals. 

Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to win at 13/10.

Western United vs Brisbane Roar 

KO: 07:10 (UK time)

Again, the bookies are in a bit of a bind here. These two teams are capable of grinding out a 0-0, as un-A-League as that scoreline is! These two teams rely heavily upon their tactics to get them through matches for different reasons, with Roar unable to compete with any team at this level when it comes to chance conversion, and Western United utterly incapable of one-on-one defending. The bookies aren’t wrong to consider under 2.5 goals as a realistic possibility here, basically.

However, I think rolling with over 2.5 goals today makes sense. They simply never seem to be far away from doing something very stupid, Western United. That’s happened for three matches in a row now, and only Melbourne Victory being morons meant that Western United got away with it on the day. In that game, they were consistently getting booked for cheap fouls due to sheer laziness, and in the end it resulted in a red card for Uskok. Alright, Kruse dived, but Uskok still gave the referee a decision to make. At that point, Western United were 3-1 up, and had been cruising for the entire game. After that, it was backs-to-the-wall, and only Lady Luck allowed them to win 4-3. 

For the following game, Spanish midfield controller Sanchez was suspended, which meant that Skotadis came in. Skotadis gave the only goal of that game away with a weak pass in his own half, which Mutch seized hold of and scored, meaning it ended 1-0 to Western Sydney Wanderers. Mid-week, they lost 2-0 against Sydney FC after giving a cheap penalty away early on, and experienced Kiwi defender Durante got himself sent off at the death for being an idiot. I don’t know why they insist on ‘living on the edge’ like this, Western United, but it must be driving Rudan crazy because they’re capable of outsmarting any A-League team – but instead they seem to invite most of them to score at different intervals.

Their erratic displays have taken some of the gloss off what has been very dangerous attacking from them. Diamanti has finally remembered that shooting at every conceivable opportunity is not a good thing, and started using that wonderful left foot to bend balls into the box for Berisha to head, which has unsurprisingly worked well. They’ve even brought in English target man Sheppard as understudy for Berisha because the Kosovan is cracking on a bit, and this way they still retain their attacking threat against teams instead of sacrificing right wing-back Pierias from his usual role to play up front. He’s fast and a good finisher, but still better on the right than through the middle. It’ll be interesting to see what transpires when Risdon is back though, huh?

With Pierias and Pain in wing-back roles, Diamanti and Guarrotxena drifting, and Berisha being the battering ram, Western United can score against any A-League team, Roar included. They’re even good from set pieces. Playing the complete game, though? It seems beyond them. They just need more intelligence at the back but until that happens, I simply cannot take them seriously when it comes to actually winning games. The above also explains why so many of their games have been high-scoring this season despite not being carefree attacking team.

So what can Roar bring to this game? Excellent work-rate, belief, speed, stamina, and tactical effectiveness. The only thing they’re really lacking is a finisher, and that’s become more and more apparent whilst McDonald is injured. Like I’ve said all season long about Wenzel-Halls, he’s a brilliant pressing forward, and a defender’s nightmare to play against because he’s a complete terrier – but he’s not a good finisher. Champness hasn’t scored for his new club yet, which surprises me, and Mebrahtu is yet to either. They’re all contributing in lots of other ways but goal-scoring continues to be a bugbear of the Roar’s.

That might just change today though. I think if you harass Western United’s defence, you’ll get something for your troubles. Kurto has not convinced me in goal this season (if he’s even back after injury) and his defence hate one-on-one defending; they’re far too quick to give free-kicks away when doing so. The right pressing from Moon’s men would cause their hosts no end of issues, and in Danzaki, Wenzel-Halls, Champness, Mebrahtu, and Daley, they’ve got one of the best pressing attackers in the division. They sure know how to make life uncomfortably for opponents, Roar!

They’re better at defending than their statistics show, especially when Young is between the sticks, and yet almost always seem to concede a token goal or two. As much as I love the Roar press, they’re not particularly good at getting back to help the defence out so teams can often surround them, and be allowed to crack off shots from good positions, which can naturally lead to goals. I suspect we’ll see more of the same here, particularly with Berisha desperate to score against the club where he first made his name in Australian football. 

Roar can upset Western United today, though – I don’t doubt that. Their style will make life very uncomfortable for Rudan’s men. My sole concern is whether they take their chances or not though. I’d like to think that their speed would cause Western United too many problems, and that O’Shea’s set piece delivery would too. Time will tell, of course, but this is the kind of game that Roar can shine in. 

With the above in mind, backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 is very appealing to me today.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Gazisehir Gaziantep vs Denizlispor 

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

When I see stupidly short odds like those found on the Gazisehir win today, I’m always baffled by how they’ve been calculated. It’s as if the bookies think that this team is actually a top seven team, just because that’s where they are in the Super Lig. It’s as if they think there’s no other possible explanation, you know?

When it comes to Turkish football, there’s very little between most teams. A great number of them have substantial financial backing nowadays too, so it seldom takes more than a bit of astute work in the transfer market for them to suddenly be a lot more competitive. Take Kayserispor, for example. They appointed Petrescu, he made a few choices signings, and suddenly they were unplayable for the most parts. He’s gone now, and that puts me off backing them, but for that time they were a good team. It’s important to pay mind to the smaller details in a league like this rather than the more obvious league table, which really doesn’t tell you anything about the quality of the teams playing, nor the way Turkish football is ‘ran’ behind the scenes.

I won’t deny that Gazisehir have had a delightful eighteen months or so, but you have to understand that it came about because of Romanian boss Sumudica. He’s a good manager at Super Lig level, and has proved it often – but he also speaks his mind too much, which is another Romanian trait that I’ve found over the years! I personally quite like that trait, but it’s not always the most popular amongst the passionate Turkish football fans, so when a boss comes out and says he’s not being paid enough, it can hardly be considered a surprise when that rash club decides to sack him. He actually apologised after the event, and asked to come back, but Gazisehir were too pig-headed to let him come back, failing to recognise that they were where they were in the Super Lig because of him, not because they’d suddenly built an amazing squad.

Sumudica has gone on to do very Sumudica things since leaving Gazisehir, easily getting a job at Rizespor, which looked a perfect match. However, he began his typical mouthing off trick, and ultimately left the club after stating that the players he had weren’t good enough. Just another day in Turkey, folks! Anyway – Gazisehir replaced him with Ricardo Sa Pinto, which is every inch the disaster you’d expect it to be, given that he’s not done a good managerial job anywhere. I don’t remember him having a job for longer than twelve months anywhere, and he’s now managed in Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Belgium, Poland, Greece, Serbia, Portugal, and now Turkey. Somehow, Gazisehir reached the conclusion that he was the right man for the job, a process that I can only assume happened purely via watching old clips of him as a footballer on YouTube because there really isn’t another explanation.

Instead of a streetwise Sumudica squad that knew how to defend deep, take chances, and hold leads, Gazisehir have suddenly become very flat and disinterested. Other than the occasionally Mirallas magic or Maxim penalties, this team wouldn’t score any goals at all. Sure, you can point to Kana-Biyik’s absence at the back as the main reason for them continually shipping goals, but it’s not the case. Yes, they do miss him, but Sumudica’s team was always about the unit rather than the individual. Sa Pinto’s team is about the individuals, and as individuals, Gazisehir really aren’t very good, which has naturally led to issues.

The brutal reality is that, two months into the job, Sa Pinto still hasn’t established any kind of cohesion in his squad, which has been together for a while now. They don’t penetrate defences well enough. They don’t convert the few chances they create well enough, and at no stage do I feel confident that they’ll keep teams out. The potential for Gazisehir to be good is definitely there; anybody that has watched them under Sumudica can tell you that. However, that Gazisehir is a long way away from this Gazisehir side, and I would be amazed if Sa Pinto still had his job by next season because there aren’t any signs of progress at this club whatsoever right now. I mean, what other reason could there possibly be for wanting to back Denizlispor to avoid defeat today?!

I remember looking at the Denizlispor squad pre-season and thinking that they were in for a good campaign. Epic fail on my part! They’ve been a disaster, to be honest. If not for Rodallega rolling back the years, they’d already be relegated. As things currently stand, they do actually have a chance to stay in the Super Lig, and I think that they’ve done all that they realistically can in 2021 to make that happen. Only time will tell if they manage it or not, though, and I would not be seen backing for or against such at this stage.

I do think that the new manager ‘bounce’ that has come with Kutlu taking over in January has helped them though. Not only do the team look more energetic and confident, but they’ve picked up more points because of it. Denizlispor having good players is actually nothing new, as I intimated above; it’s about making them work as one on the pitch, and Kutlu has done that quite well. Mesanovic has scored more goals since he took over, Niyaz has scored more goals since he took over, and even Sacko scored against Yeni Malatyaspor lately, increasing his goal-scoring tally for the season by 100% in that one game alone! 

They’re not going to do anything heroic, Denizlispor, but I’ve seen a team that wants to stay in the Super Lig in 2021, and that’s enough for me. If you’ve got desire against a wholly unconvincing Gazisehir side, then you should get something from them at this moment in time. I also think that their chances have been improved by the control of games that Diskerud and Yasin have helped them achieve since joining in 2021. They’re far from perfect, Denizlispor, but I’m more convinced by them than I am by their hosts at the moment – let me put it like that.

With Kana-Biyik still out for the home team, and the away team giving more of a shit and scoring more goals now, backing the visitors to avoid defeat in a fan-less stadium at evens against an overrated home team looks a bet worth making to me.

Verdict: Denizlispor to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at evens.

Lorient vs OGC Nice

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Making Nice underdogs today was an interesting call from the bookmakers. I’ve loved having Lorient back in Ligue 1 because they’re been typically entertaining and high-scoring, but they’re clueless when it comes to tactics. I love their work-rate, but this is not an efficient team.

Now, three months ago, I’d have not only agree with the bookies, but gone the other way with this pick because Lorient looked good enough to win such meetings, and Nice looked awfully predictable and uncomfortable under Vieira. Since then, Nice have parted ways with Vieira, promoted Ursea from within (until the end of the season), and actually made some seriously good signings. Despite being dominated by AS Monaco in their Coupe de France derby earlier this week, Nice have been really good lately because they’ve united Saliba and Todibo in the middle of defence, and they complement one another really well. That’s paved the way for Nice to progress properly without fear of conceding, and that in turn has led to more goal-scoring. This is now a team to take seriously once more.

I say the above in the full knowledge that they’re not even close to being at full-strength yet. Dolberg’s had injury problems (although is fine today), playmaker Lopes is very close but still can’t play, and the likes of Dante, Reine-Adelaide and Atal join Boudaoui on the sidelines, the latter of which is the most recent addition to the medical room. For today’s game, they’re also without Todibo, who is suspended. I’d normally view the latter as a significant problem but things have been so positive from the southerners lately that I almost feel compelled to give them a shot today.

I’m fine with the idea of Bambu partnering Saliba at the back, and both Gouiri and Maolida flanking Dolberg in attack whilst Lees Melou and Schneiderlin act as the engines. I can pick holes in this squad all day long, but when it comes to facing Lorient, what they’ve got is enough, particularly with their newly-discovered mental strength. For the most part, Nice have done enough lately to be trusted, and today’s trip to the north-west is one that they realistically should be winning.

Of course, my tip is aided by absentees on Lorient’s side, particularly in defence. They acquired Portuguese centre-back Ilori in January to help them try and stop conceding a stupid amount of goals but he’s yet to even debutise because of injury, and he’s still out today too. Veteran Madagascar international Morel is something of a leader in defence for them, and he’s out too. Regular shot stopper Nardi is also out, and with both Saunier and Fontaine long-term absentees for the hosts at the back, a clean sheet for Lorient today would be beyond amazing.

The absentees don’t stop there, though! Consistent midfield controller Lemoine is another that won’t be playing today, and neither will his partner Delaplace. Backup winger Diarra is another that’s out, but it’s central midfield that Lorient need to be seriously worried about here. Lemoine and Delaplace can’t play, as I said above, but Monconduit is also listed as a doubt, and if he doesn’t make it, they are going to find this game a complete nightmare against a very mobile and speedy Nice midfield. 

The good news for Lorient is that their attackers are all fit, at least. Quite how they’re supposed to get the ball in the right areas, I have no idea, but Wissa is usually good enough to make something happen even with the most limited of service, and Hamel/Grbic/Moffi will win balls in the air. Lorient struggle to control games as it is though, constantly riding the wave, so playing without so many important midfielders as well as defenders looks a challenging proposition for them. Such led to an embarrassing Coupe de France exit recently against amateurs Le Puy Foot, and I think it’ll lead them headlong into trouble against a somewhat resurrected Nice side. 

Both teams have issues here, but Nice have better solutions, and have convinced me far more lately. Therefore, I’m on the visitors with draw no bet cover at 83/100.

Verdict: OGC Nice to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Racing Club Lens vs Metz

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

With odds like this on the home win, I sometimes think that the bookies (and bettors, for that matter) have forgotten who and what Lens are. I expected good things from them this season (not fifth in the table, admittedly!) because they prepared brilliantly for Ligue 1, and their players were on the same page from a very early stage of the season thanks to a good pre-season warm-up. To consider them as one of Ligue 1’s best teams is beyond a stretch, though. There’s logic behind them being where they are in the table, in other words, and unlike most teams around them, they do not have the depth to cope with absentees.

I mean, Stade Rennais’ atrocious run (which has seen boss Stephan sacked), Nice’s atrocious campaign, Nantes’ implosion, Marseille’s circus antics, and Saint-Etienne’s absentees have afforded Lens the opportunity to be where they in the table; let’s be quite clear on that front. Fair play to the Ligue 1 newcomers for taking such opportunities but again, there’s method to the madness; it’s not as if they’ve suddenly found eleven Messi’s just wandering around Ligue 2!

There have been a couple of signs in 2021 that Lens are beginning to get tired. All season long, they’ve relied heavily on one of the wonderkids that they have discovered, namely Argentina’s Medina. He’s been superb in defence; probably their best player of the season thus far. He’s had to play a lot of games though, and to do so on a frequent basis, which has made him tired. It’s not shown so much because Lens haven’t lost for ages but they’ve been conceding far more goals than usual in 2021, and that’s something that has been in my mind. 

Furthermore, this team has stopped controlling games as they did earlier in the season. I still think that boss Haise has done a terrific job tactically in preparing his team for each and every Ligue 1 situation awaiting them, but Lens are not able to rotate many (if any) of their players so things are slowly, but surely, beginning to be beyond them. Not just that, but they’re clocking up more injuries than they used to earlier in the season. Cameroonian live wire Ganago has already had one substantial injury this season; now he has another, and nobody in this squad can do his job. 

Their most recent injury has been to star playmaker Kakuta though, and if you thought that playing without Ganago was bad, wait until you see them without Kakuta! He is the only one that can glue the midfield and attack together, especially because Ganago’s absence and Jean’s lack of form means that going wide and getting balls into the box for big target men is the only viable route to goal Lens have right now. Without Kakuta to release those balls wide at the right time, or to commit defensive midfielders into coming at him, freeing up space for wingers to run into, Lens are not going to hurt teams very well.

Now, if you check back over 2021 as to how many games Lens would have won by only scoring one goal, or two at the very most (which is still a stretch for a Kakuta-less team), then you’ll see why I think they’re priced too short here. I won’t deny that Lens have a better balance to their squad than Metz, and that they should beat them under ordinary circumstances. However, I would also add that Metz are far more experienced than Lens are grinding out points because they’re used to battling against the drop, and few teams have impressed me more away from home this season than Metz.

Considering how bang average Metz are, the fact that only the top five in Ligue 1 have won more away games than them this season is a real feather in the cap of boss Antonetti, who only took over in October. He’s had boatloads of injuries to deal with throughout his reign too. For example, star striker Niane is still injured, as are a number of players. Indeed, even more than usual are injured today but injuries don’t hurt Metz as much as they hurt most teams because, as I said above, they’re an average team. Subsequently, replacing players doesn’t really change the quality level much, you know? Even when missing key players this season, Metz have generally still shown up and upset the apple cart.

I actually think that Metz have performed better on the road than at home, which is basically because they’re perfectly setup to counterattack. I can’t say that they’re tactical geniuses, Metz, but it can appear that way because of what they do on the road. They may not defend particularly well as a group, but individually they’re very hard to get past. It really is a case of winning the ball back and unleashing it down the pitch for their rapid forwards to get onto. It’s not complicated in the slightest, but Metz have perfected it under Antonetti. I’ve learnt not to underestimate Metz in that regard. Sure, I think they’ve rode their luck at times this season but I just love how they constantly threaten their opponents, even when under duress. This is a seriously dangerous team, and one that I am not prepared to underestimate today.

Lens may be the more ‘fashionable’ of these two teams, but Metz are more streetwise, and they get to play this match without any pressure. They’re going to cause Lens problems, just as they did for Bordeaux, Nice, Brest, Lyon, Strasbourg, Marseille etc. this season – and most of those games they’ve won. Indeed, the teams that have beaten them away from home have only done so 1-0 because they just won’t give up, Metz. This is a seriously big challenge for Lens, and they’re missing two very important players for such a match. 

Therefore, I’m more than content to back Metz to avoid defeat today.

Verdict: Metz to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at evens.