TFT Issue 3374!

I remember watching Phoenix deal with Western Sydney rather well a few weeks back. At that point, they were without about half of their starting eleven too. I remember thinking that, with the game being played in Wollongong (not far from Sydney), that Western Sydney could not have wished for a more straightforward match. However, they failed to really break the Kiwis down until the second-half, and even then it only happened sporadically. Even after Western Sydney took the lead, Phoenix still had the gumption and energy to seek out an equaliser. What’s changed since then?

Well, for starters, Phoenix now have most of their players back. They’re still without DeVere at centre-back, and his ‘new’ replacement Taylor is still in quarantine. The rest are available though, and the form guide should tell you how well they’ve done lately. On top of that, Phoenix have actually had some luck lately. Their performances haven’t differed much from those they produced earlier in the campaign but now their shots are being deflected into the goal, and their players are being that bit bolder in the final third etc. It’s the little things that make the big differences in football.

A confident Phoenix team is a dangerous one. The only thing they really lack this season is a natural goal-scorer, unless Hemed suddenly decides that he wants to be that man. Even youngster Waine has got two goals to his name, and not only do I not think he’s ready for A-League level, but I’m also not sure he’ll ever be ready – that is the kind of player that is contributing more than Hemed right now. Tactically speaking though, Phoenix are excellent. Few teams work harder than they do, so it goes without saying that if you give them a lead, they’re even more annoying to deal with. Luck has denoted that they’ve taken the lead twice in as many games, and have subsequently gone on to win both. I would not be surprised to see the same today.

On paper, Western Sydney are the better team here. However, unlike Phoenix, they have very little luck at the moment. They created boatloads of chances against Adelaide United, for example, and were the better team – but lost 3-2, despite winning most headers from corners, and Muller missing countless chances. Against Melbourne City, they never really found their groove, stifled by a good team, but the chances they did fashion weren’t taken. Furthermore, they were arguably unlucky to have a penalty given against them when 1-0 down after the ball bounced up and hit an unsuspecting Troisi on the arm. That became 2-0, and there was no way back after that. The only real slice of luck they had came against Western United last time out, which was a very even game until Skotadis randomly gave the ball to Mutch in front of the Western United goal, who scored. Not much is going Western Sydney’s way right now though, it must be said.

I still have very real issues when it comes to believing that this team can keep opponents out though, which is another problem. Young Natta actually looks excellent on the left side of that back three but if anything occurs that they’ve not prepared for in training, they look lost. It’s just a case of the centre-backs not being naturally capable of playing as a trio. They work hard at it, but it’s not the same as being a natural at it. Subsequently, teams find moments in each game to punish Western Sydney, and even Western United should have punished them for it last time out. 

Their attacking situation is improving, though. Duke’s return to the club has only brought good things, namely more shots, a better aerial presence, and a forward that will happily press defenders all day long. Yeboah looks that bit more confident since he found the net, and Ibini-Isei’s movement has been very good. Kamau has been the best of the lot of them, really, and anyone who has watched him play over the years can’t be surprised at that. Despite improved displays though, the reality is that Western Sydney’s goals per chances ratio is poor at the moment. All of them have been guilty of squandering good opportunities, and with a glaring defensive weakness as mentioned above, it’s not hard to see why things aren’t going their way. Even their full-backs are constantly rampaging forward, leaving their centre-backs exposed. That’s not so worrisome if you’re scoring goals regularly, but if you’re not, it becomes an issue – and that’s where Western Sydney are currently at.

Therefore, despite me being acutely aware that Western Sydney are the better side here, I think it makes far more sense to back the Kiwis to get something from this match at generous odds of 21/25.