TFT Issue 3375!

CSKA Moscow vs Zenit St. Petersburg

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

I tend to favour Zenit over CSKA nowadays anyway because the visitors have a better, more experienced squad, and what I class as the best manager in Russia too – Semak. I should add that I also rate CSKA’s Belarusian manager Goncharenko rather highly too though, whose career I rather accidentally followed back when he was in charge of BATE Borisov in their glory years. These are two teams that I am pleased with, albeit for different reasons.

I think that CSKA are doing Russian football the world of good by promoting, signing, and playing more youngsters than ever before, even though they’re known for doing it anyway. I know that Chalov etc. have fallen off the wagon a tad but Kuchaev, Oblyakov etc. have all shone, and it’s definitely not too late for Akhmetov either. They want to play good, FK Krasnodar-esque football, and to do it with pride and passion, something that this team had been lacking for a long time until Goncharenko took over. Now they look fitter, faster, and a lot more dangerous.

Of course, the problem is that this is essentially a very young team. That means over-reliance on their more experienced heads, especially in tough games, and it also means that it’s harder for them to bounce back from disappointing results than it is for more experienced teams, in my opinion. At the end of the day, CSKA’s success hinges heavily upon Fernandes and Vlasic. Vlasic can decide any CSKA game in their favour because he’s amazing, and right-back Fernandes is brilliant at both ends, adding speed and intelligence at all times. 

The subsequent injury that Fernandes suffered against Arsenal Tula at the weekend is particularly poignant here, with the above in mind. It’s supposed to be a bad one too, which is likely to derail their title aspirations. Vlasic will still have his say here, just as he did with a corker in the reversal of this fixture, but CSKA have nowhere else to turn – and Zenit can always suppress a team like that in the end. Remember that this CSKA team was assembled to outscore teams, not outsmart them. That’s why they paid what they did for Nigerian attacker Ejuke in 2020, who has been superb since joining. Now they’ve got a good, reliable target man Rondon, which they were lacking in their failed Argentinian signing Gaich, who is now playing in Italy. Let’s not overlook the tricky Kazakh dribbler Zainutdinov either, who has been very good for two years now. 

These are all good things, both for CSKA and Russian football. However, as I said above, this is a team to outscore opponents, not outsmart them. In the reversal of this fixture, although CSKA had the odd moment, it was generally a case of Zenit controlling the game, and doing what they saw fit. Vlasic literally had to tear them open by himself with a rocket of a strike from range in order to keep the capital club in it. Admittedly, they had a much improved second-half with better movement and drive but still lost by not being good enough at either end. The same is likely here with Fernandes out, joining centre-back Fuchs on the sidelines, who was signed to be the future of this club. Veteran defender Nababkin is still out too, of course, and I’ll be surprised if he ever comes back from this particular injury to be honest. 

To put it bluntly, it’s a good time to face CSKA. They’ve just lost 2-1 against Arsenal Tula, a team they should have beaten as they attempted to put some pressure on Zenit at the top of the table. CSKA without such defensive options and without a regular goal-scorer in attack are a lot easier to face. I won’t deny that the capital club now have far better direct threats, enabling them to be more of a danger from set pieces and counters, but they’re still not a realistic match for a Zenit team that can – and should – dominate this game with superior ball usage.

The only real chance CSKA have here is if Zenit lose focus, which I doubt. Semak is usually very good at keeping them focused, and now they’ve shaken off their mid-season rust by hammering Akhmat Grozny 4-0 at weekend, I fear for CSKA here. I can pick fault with certain aspects of Zenit’s play, especially when they’re trying to play a high line against pacey forwards – see Makarov’s magical winner in Rubin Kazan’s recent 2-1 victory over the reigning champions as a handy example; he made Lovren look like an amateur! Still, the positives far outweigh the negatives at Zenit, and they comfortably remain Russia’s best team, even after Spartak Moscow heroically recaptured Promes to distract their fans from the fact that they’re unable to keep talented young German boss Tedesco beyond the end of this season. This also helps Promes, who has now realised he can’t play well in a team unless he’s the star of it, and he’s not good enough to be that in anywhere but Russia – at least not from the leagues he’s tried in.

Take Malcom as an example now. When he joined Zenit, folk though he’d run the show for them, and that he’d look amazing. I thought he’d do well in Russia but he’s made bad career choices ever since his early departure from Bordeaux, and that made me wonder if he had what it takes to be a top player so his injury problems this season really haven’t bothered me – and nor have they bothered Zenit. See, Semak has depth, quality etc. This is not the Zenit of old that exclusively relied upon foreign imports to bail them out. No, this is a Zenit team that can still hurt teams just as well through Sutormin, Mostovoy, Erokhin etc. 

I won’t deny that Iran’s Azmoun is their best player, and that they look less effective when he’s not playing (he is today though, don’t worry!), but my point is that this is a team that is built upon just that; being a team rather than a group of average Russians being carried by foreigners. By Russian standards, this is a seriously complete and dangerous team now, especially with their confident ball-playing centre-backs in mind. Barrios has stepped into the Paredes role marvellously, and dare I say that he’s doing it better? Now they’ve got Wendel to help out there too, and I’ve never been his biggest fan but he’s built well enough physically to be a good player for Zenit, keeping in mind his passing ability. I just hope he stops shooting from range because his accuracy is generally atrocious!

Zenit have depth. Zenit have quality. Zenit have match-winners in every area of the pitch. Zenit have two squads. What can CSKA realistically hope to do here, other than pray that Zenit have an off-day? Sure, the spritely CSKA forwards will keep the Zenit defence on its toes, as will classy Vlasic. The reality here is that Zenit are too good for CSKA though, whether they win today or not. The absence of Fernandes makes me like it more, but even if he had been playing, I’d still fancy the table-toppers; they’re too good for the rest of the teams in this division. 

Verdict: Zenit St. Petersburg to win at 11/10.