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Molde FK vs Granada

KO: (UK time)

As enchanting as the prospect of Molde winning in Spain last week was, the reality just wasn’t there. They’ve done marvellously to get as far as they have, and beating TSG Hoffenheim in the last round is something that will be forever etched into the memories of their fans. This level is beyond Molde though, and even facing a seriously under-strength Granada side was beyond them.

Molde did make it easier for their hosts on the night with Ellingsen opting to pick up two yellow cards in two minutes, meaning he’ll be suspended for tonight’s match in Hungary. That was promptly followed by a Granada second goal, which has done them the world of good ahead of tonight’s trip to Budapest. Indeed, I would fully expect them to take their foot off the throttle here and simply play a professional game in order to go through, and they’re flexible enough to do it properly. This is where I expect Molde’s naivety to shine through, though.

I do love Molde, and what they’ve achieved with a limited squad this season. However, they’re a bit suspect defensively, and that’s me phrasing it very generously indeed. I seldom feel confident that this team will keep a clean sheet anyway, but then you have to factor in their attacking nature too, and it becomes clear as to why this team seldom keeps teams out. Sometimes they’ll get away with it, depending on the quality of their opposition. I love that they beat TSG Hoffenheim in the last round but please don’t suffer from any illusions; it was a typically underwhelming TSG Hoffenheim display on the night that afforded the Norwegians the opportunity to cause an upset.

Essentially, I expect Molde to have a go at Granada tonight because, well, why not? By getting this far, they’ve got absolutely nothing to lose, and attacking football is all that they know. It’s not a smart move against Granada, though. Ok, Granada may not be Real Madrid, but they’re a versatile, organised, and dangerous team, even when suffering from the absentees that they still are. They won’t crumble like TSG Hoffenheim. They’re far more likely to hurt Molde whilst being attacked than they are to fall apart! Furthermore, Molde are now without two key players in Ellingsen and Brynhildsen; the former a defender/defensive midfielder, and the latter an attacker. On top of that, don’t lose sight of the fact that James, a regular striker of theirs, has left the club since the end of 2020. This is far from a full-strength Molde, folks!

See, both teams might be missing regulars here, but Granada have more depth. I think that’s a realistic expectation too, given their financial backing versus that of Molde. Granada may have more absentees but they’re more capable of replacing those absent than tonight’s ‘hosts’ are. Granada are resilient, industrious, and again, versatile. Whether they’re attacking or defending, this is a seriously effective team, and to think they’ve done it with so many absentees this season is really impressive. All the credit in the world has to go to Molde for doing what they have against the odds, of course, but Granda deserved a lot of credit too; this is not a big, experienced team, used to fixture congestion. It’s a small team from a big county – and they’ve delivered nothing but big displays in Europe this season. I’ve been seriously impressed with them, and I can only feel sorry that Molde were unlucky enough to be paired with such a professional outfit because, without wanting to tempt fate, this isn’t a realistic opponent for them to beat.

Granada have actually recovered players for this game though, which has somewhat slipped under the radar. Montoro, Herrera, Vallejo (brief cameo last week) and German Sanchez are all back to help restore that typically imposing Granada balance, and with their experienced finishers still available up front, I can see the Spaniards doing yet another professional job on Molde. It’s sad, really, and I don’t like opposing such spirited, plucky teams that deserve so much from what they’ve given. However, there’s no room for sympathy in football, and I expect Granada to produce a particularly unsympathetic display tonight in order to secure their progression to the next round.

Ergo, I’m on an away win at 5/4.

Verdict: Granada to win at 5/4.

Additional games

Astra Giurgiu vs Botosani 

KO: (UK time)

Today’s match in Romania features two of the Ligat 1’s more adventurous teams, namely Astra Giurgiu and Botosani. 

Astra are remarkably in-form at the moment, seeking a top six finish against all odds – and I wouldn’t bet against them managing it. They look confident, and have been playing well enough for some to consider them as the most in-form team in Romania right now. It’s hard to envision their form guide enduring with quite the same longevity as that of CFR Cluj of FCSB, for example, but they’re certainly giving it a very good shot at the moment.

It was weird to see how well boss Neagoe turned things around at this club when he arrived in November, immediately replacing losses with calm, measured displays. Alright, they drew more than they should have, not winning enough, and they had a bit of a dry spell earlier in 2021. In general though, this team has been seriously hard to beat under Neagoe, and now he’s turned draws into wins, I’m struggling to doubt this team. They’ve got good, experienced defenders, great sitting midfielders to protect them, and some natural flair players to call upon too, making the balance complete.

If I had one criticism of this team, it’s that their strikers don’t score enough. Montini is a very busy forward but without the necessary goals return, and Fatai is seldom fit or effective nowadays, hence big Krpic joining from Suwon Bluewings earlier in 2021. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Astra have won more games since he joined either. Neagoe identified a weakness, addressed it, and now his game-plans have panned out exactly as he wanted them to. I still think they need that bit more in attack as Gheorghe’s form won’t be this good again, and I doubt they can keep a class act like Wuthrich, but for now they’re good. I think they’ve got what it takes to beat Botosani today.

The Moldovans have really started to struggle of late, going four games without a win now, losing three of them, and only scoring against Sepsi along the way. Everybody at the club is now getting worried about a top six finish slipping through their grasp, and so they should be too. On paper, beating Voluntari and Viitorul Constanta (their last two remaining matches of the regular campaign) should be easy but both of those teams have really stepped things up a notch or two lately in their battle against the drop, and Botosani are not winning many battles right now. They would no doubt have preferred to face out-of-form UTA Arad, or a Politehnica Iasi side in utter disarray.

Instead, it’s Botosani that is the side in something of a disarray here. Sabau said the team were ‘soft’ in their do-or-die match against Sepsi, He remarked that they had to be sharper, and to press better, not dominate – but it never came to pass. There is something brewing at Botosani too, as tensions between boss Croitoru and the club’s owner have spilled over into the public domain recently. It doesn’t seem to me like Botosani can handle the pressure of big games right now – and this is a big game.

As long as the home team can shackle Keyta’s support options – which other Romanian teams have done really well lately – than Botosani should struggle again. They’ve got more technically gifted players than their hosts but they’ve also got lazier, more complacent players too, especially in Denmark’s Toutouh, who was known in the Superligaen for not tracking back. When the sun is shining, this is a good Botosani team – but the sun hasn’t been seen for a while in the Moldovan region of Romania, at least not for Botosani. Barring a miraculous change of heart from their under-pressure players, I can see them failing tonight.

For me, backing Astra with draw no bet at 9/10 makes sense. 

Verdict: Astra Giurgiu to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

Young Boys Bern vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam 

KO: (UK time)

I know Ajax did the job in The Netherlands well enough to not need anything in Switzerland tonight, but I don’t care. I have massive respect for Young Boys Bern for beating Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the last round; it was a huge scalp to claim. However, it was a fortunate time to face them, and Young Boys Bern managed to make the most of it by, rather unusually, showing up. 

The reality is that Young Boys Bern are not very good though. They’re running away with the Swiss Super League because it’s the poorest (in terms of quality at the top) it’s been in years, and they’re only still in Europe by virtue of teams not showing up against them. Ajax showed what should happened to Young Boys Bern last week when they turned up. It wasn’t just a 3-0 win; it was a humiliation. Young Boys Bern did not have a shot on target in the entire game, and they barely even had the ball. There’s no shame in it; Ajax are simply a lot better than they are, and Young Boys Bern should never have been able to progress as far as they did. Credit to them for managing it, but much like with Molde, it was more a case of circumstances than anything else.

I’d expect most other teams to head to Switzerland tonight with the intention of sitting back and seeing the game out, but not Ajax. No, this team only has one mode, and that’s to attack. When they attack, they look excellent too, assuming their opponents don’t know how to defend deep (and Young Boys Bern don’t!). They’re in particularly ruthless form at the moment, the Eredivisie leaders, and they’re plainly taking the UEFA Europa League seriously this season – and why not? They can win it, for sure, although I do feel that Haller and Onana would need to be available if that were to happen, and it gets complicated with the latter for obvious reasons!

Even with something of a derby at weekend (it matters more to ADO Den Haag than Ajax), I still expect Ajax to do a good job in Switzerland. This is their type of match to shine in too, as they’ll get lots of space in behind against an attack-minded team, They’re up against a clumsy defence, equipped with dangerous dribblers and intelligent runners. Furthermore, Young Boys Bern are used to dominating possession, which Ajax simply denied them the chance of doing in The Netherlands by virtue of simply being better at it. I don’t see why tonight’s game would be any different.

Another element to consider is that Young Boys Bern haven’t won for a while now. I think that this is particularly poignant because, as I said above, this is not a particularly good team. It used to be, but it’s not nowadays, and momentum has played far more of a role in their fortunes than people seem to acknowledge. I’ve seen far better Young Boys Bern teams than this dominate Swiss football less easily because of the quality of their rivals, rivals that this Young Boys Bern side simply don’t have. Therefore, when they aren’t getting their own way, their less desirable qualities tend to emerge. The only surprise to me is that it didn’t happen earlier in the season, really.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Young Boys Bern don’t have good players, because they do. Nsame is an excellent striker, when he’s smart enough to not get sent off. Sulejmani is a brilliant playmaker on his day. Elia is finally showing why he was signed to replace Assale. However, I maintain that Young Boys Bern are out of their depth against Ajax, and with regular shot stopper von Ballmoos still suffering with concussion, it’s likely that erratic Faivre will be between the sticks instead – and that’s only going to favour one of these two teams, and it isn’t Young Boys Bern!

For me, even though they don’t need to win on the night, the away win at 11/10 really appeals to me.

Verdict: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to win at 11/10.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

UEFA Europa League:

Shakhtar Donetsk Malyshev and Stepanenko are absent. Fernando, Khocholava, and Cipriano are doubts.
AS Roma – Farelli, Fazio, Veretout, Smalling, Mkhitaryan, Jesus, Pastore, Zaniolo, and Reynolds are absent.
Arsenal – Saka is a doubt.
Olympiakos Piraeus – Papadopoulos, Semedo, and Vrousai are absent. Ba is a doubt.
Dinamo Zagreb – Moharrami is absent. Gvardiol and Milic are doubts.
Tottenham Hotspur – Hojbjerg, Son, and Lo Celso are absent.
Molde FK Brynhildsen, Ellingsen, and Haraldseid are absent.
Granada – Foulquier, Lozano, Machis, Milla, Neva, Soro, and L. Suarez are absent. P. Sanchez is a doubt.
Young Boys Bern – Aebischer, Martins-Pereira, von Ballmoos, and Petignat are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Onana, Mazraoui, Haller, and J. Timber are absent.
Villarreal – Coquelin, Iborra, Pena, A. Moreno, and Torres are absent.
Dynamo Kyiv – Baluta, Burda, Kostevych, Popov, and Verbic are absent. Clayton is a doubt.
AC Milan – Mandzukic is absent. Leao, Romagnoli, Rebic, and Calabria are doubts.
Manchester United – Jones, Mata, Martial, and Bailly are absent. Cavani is a doubt. Pogba, van de Beek, and de Gea return.
Rangers – Jack, Katic, and Tavernier are absent.
Slavia Prague – Beran, Hovorka, Sevcik, Traore, Yusuf, Zima, and van Buren are absent.

Russian Premier League:

FK Ufa – No absentees.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Ignatjev, Lysov, Miranchuk, and Ze Luis are absent.
Spartak Moscow – Larsson and Moses are absent.
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast – No absentees.
FK Krasnodar – Petrov, Ramirez, Berg, and Stotsky are absent.
Dinamo Moscow – No absentees.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

UEFA Europa League:

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AS Roma (5) 2-2
Arsenal vs Olympiakos Piraeus (6) over 2.5 goals
Dinamo Zagreb vs Tottenham Hotspur (6) 0-1
Molde FK vs Granada (6) 0-1
Young Boys Bern vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (6) over 2.5 goals
Villarreal vs Dynamo Kyiv (6) 2-0
AC Milan vs Manchester United (5) 2-1
Rangers vs Slavia Prague (5) 1-1

Copa Libertadores:

Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Club Guarani Asuncion (6) 1-0

Copa Sudamericana:

Metropolitanos vs Academia Puerto Cabello (5) 2-1
Aucas vs Guayaquil City (5) 1-0
Guarena vs River Plate (PAR) (5) 2-1
La Equidad Bogota vs Deportivo Pasto (6) 1-0
Carlos Mannucci vs Melgar FBC (5) 1-2
Cobresal vs Palestino (5) 2-2

Bulgarian Cup:

CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa (6) 1-0

Portuguese Liga 2:

Vilafranquense vs Penafiel (5) 0-1

Romanian Liga 1:

Astra Giurgiu vs Botosani (5) 1-0

Russian Premier League:

FK Ufa vs Lokomotiv Moscow (6) 0-1
Spartak Moscow vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast (6) 1-0
FK Krasnodar vs Dinamo Moscow (5) 2-1

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