TFT Issue 3378!

Cova de Piedade vs Estoril

KO: 11:00 (UK time)

This preview should be easier to write than most today because the simply difference between Cova de Piedade and Estoril is quality. They’re two teams from the opposite end of the spectrum with vastly contrasting ambitions. Essentially, whatever you may think of Estoril, they’re a Liga 1 team that plays in Liga 2 whereas Cova de Piedade are a part-time team whose corruption and over-reliance on Miguel Rosa should have seen them relegated some years ago now – and it may even happen this season.

Without a win in six, the home team are finding life particularly tough at the moment. I can’t say that they’re not working hard, because they are, but they’re just not good enough for this level. They don’t score enough goals, and again, their over-reliance on Rosa is a joke. It would have been interesting to see what happened if the poor bloke didn’t get homesick whenever he left Lisbon because he always had the talent to do a job at a far better team than this, as he amply demonstrated at SL Benfica II. There aren’t that many teams in the top two divisions from Lisbon though, and those that are, are a bit too good for him, especially after Oriental Lisboa folded.

They’ve got experience, and they’re grafters, but this is not a team that should ever expect to get a good result against a top team like Estoril. Since these two teams were united in the same division, Estoril have won four from four, beating Cova de Piedade by two goals or more on each occasion, and conceding a solitary goal along the way. Why that would change today, I don’t know. I fully accept that a one-goal margin victory is possible; they’ve done very well at grinding results out in 2021, Estoril. 

Still, it’s worth the risk with a -1 Asian Handicap, in my opinion. There are no fans allowed for this game for obvious reasons, not that Cova de Piedade have many fans anyway. Estoril have been very resourceful in their battle for promotion because they’ve had to calculate different ways to beat good teams – and they have, whether it’s the attacking quality of SL Benfica II, the tenacity of Leixoes Matosinhos, or the organisation of Varzim. Estoril find ways to break teams down with their Liga 1-worthy players, and when they get that lead, few can unsettle them.

The two teams are simply poles apart, and heading in the opposite direction. At 13/10, I’m more than content to chance my arm on the visitors beating the -1 Asian Handicap.

Verdict: Estoril to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/4.

KuPS vs Gnistan

KO: 11:00 (UK time)

I daresay Finnish football isn’t high on many people’s agendas when it comes to watching or betting – but it is on mine, largely because of games like today’s where the bookies have come up with some really bizarre odds on this encounter. Allow me to explain.

Over the past decade or so, KuPS have generally tried to live on something of a budget. Essentially, they’ve picked up random players from the Baltic states and Africa, generally made them successful, and sold them for profit. There have been some homegrown Finns too, to be fair to the lakeside club, but most of their work has been done elsewhere. Anyway, the players, succeeded, were sold, and most of the starting eleven had to be re-signed for the next campaign. The general approach from KuPS during that period has been one to play to their advantage, namely lots of direct balls in behind. 

About four years ago though, something interesting happened. KuPS changed their style, and opted to break teams down in more than direct manners, often playing around teams, or simply outlasting them in more high-tempo encounters. That approach suddenly led to KuPS keeping more players than usual, and in some extreme cases, all of them. In turn, given their excellent scouting network, they transformed into a team that could legitimately compete for the Veikkausliiga, whether they won it or not. 

Nowadays, they’ve progressed so much that not only can they let legends like Purje drift out of the squad and away from the club without any issues, but they’re also able to lure players back to KuPS that have played for them before. The likes of Pennanen and Nissila are fine examples, and I am sure that Karjalainen will be back one day too. See, that’s another case of how far KuPS have come – they lost their best goal-scorer, and nobody really noticed. Goals come from everywhere in this team, and even losing boss Honkavaara to SJK didn’t derail them.

No matter what KuPS come up against, they turn it into a win. They’re remarkably resourceful and effective. This season, they’ve even got ahead of the game by going out and signing young Finnish footballers like Popovitch and Haarala, the latter of which I really liked last season. They’ve replaced the few players they’ve lost easily, and even kept hold of players like Adjei-Boateng, who was an unsung hero of theirs last season in front of the back four. This is now a seriously complete title contender that generally bullies Veikkausliiga teams, never mind anyone else. This team smashed five past SJK earlier in the Suomen Cup, and that’s the best SJK I’ve seen in four years – plus KuPS were without two key players. This is a team that can win every Finnish competition this season – if they get the better of HJK. It’s a motivated, disciplined, confident, and lethal team though, and one that should not be doubted.

Now, the bookies seem to think that KuPS are going to find it a little trickier than they should to beat Gnistan today, which is amazing. You might think KuPS are priced short for this one, but I think they’re really, really long. Gnistan were an average team in a very poor Ykkonen last season, only really saved by the odd individual they picked up out of sheer desperation. Only Omer, Anyamele, and Douglas Cae provide any real quality in this squad, two of which already look past their best (worryingly, one of them is Omer!). They’re not going to struggle to stay in the Ykkonen this season with such options, but to consider them as anything but cannon fodder for KuPS would be ridiculous.

Because of the lack of quality in the Ykkonen in general, the quality gap between the Ykkonen and Veikkausliiga is bigger now than it has been for a long time – just look at how much Haka Valkeakoski struggled last season after getting promoted, and they had a brilliant manager and decent squad to work with. How the hell Gnistan are supposed to cope in Kuopio today, I don’t know – they’re horribly out of their depth against one of the best teams in Finland.

Gnistan might score today; KuPS are an attacking team after all. If Gnistan don’t concede five though, they should consider it a good day.

Verdict: KuPS to beat the -2.5 Asian Handicap at 19/20.

Hamburger SV vs Heidenheim 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I’ve opposed Hamburger a lot lately, and I’ve been right to because they’re prime time bottlers, and they’ve had very hard games. To be fair to them though, they’ve not done as badly as I thought they would, picking up a couple of good draws along the way. 

The problem is that the teams in the promotion battle are picking up more points than they are. Even by Hamburger’s standards, it would be very early in the day for them to already be out of the promotion race so they really need to start winning. There aren’t any easy games coming up for them though, largely because ‘easy’ games are what started this relative malaise of theirs in 2021 off! 

I remember them facing Braunschweig and Wurzburger Kickers earlier this calendar year, which should have been an easy six points. Instead, it was three points – and they were lucky to get them because they were typically lazy throughout, and needed their superior firepower to bail them out of a wholly unconvincing display. That’s just it – Hamburger simply don’t work as hard as other teams. It’s not that they’re crap or anything. On paper, they’ve easily got the best squad in the Bundesliga 2 but without proof on the pitch, what does it matter?

The reality is that, at this stage of the season, there’s no such thing as an easy game. Well, Osnabruck might be a conceivable exception because they look awful, but there’s nobody out there that has zero motivation at this stage; they all want something. When a team wants it more, they work harder – and that’s where Hamburger consistently let themselves down. They never want it more than their opponents, and subsequently don’t work hard enough to get it. I’ve seen nothing to make me think that hosting Heideheim today will be any different.

True enough, Hamburger won’t go without a win for the rest of the season; that’s just the law of averages for you. Opposing them makes far more sense than backing them right now though. Keep in mind that the promotion hopefuls are still without suspended defender Leistner, thanks to his petulance in the Hamburg derby, and both van Drongelen at the back and Kinsombi in midfield. Now they’ve suffered a hammer-blow ahead of this game, and those for the coming weeks, as star striker Terodde has Covid-19. He’s one of the best strikers to play at this level, and easily the best goal-scorer. Without him, they’re at least 40% worse than usual so I’m sure you can see why I really don’t fancy the home win today.

On top of the above, keep in mind how much Heidenheim have improved in 2021. Bringing big Kleindienst back to lead their attack and sticking Kuhlwetter on the right as an inside forward has been working brilliantly for Heidenheim. Both have been ruthless in front of goal, the latter of which surprised me earlier in the season. Both are dangerous, and with Heidenheim now playing a more attacking style in order to accommodate their better players, they’re scoring a lot more goals. Yes, they’re conceding more, but it’s generally working out positively for them right now.

Heidenheim, unlike their hosts, are natural grafters. That’s ultimately what saw them finish above Hamburger SV at the end of last season to compete in the play-offs. I think the neutrals love Heidenheim but that particular moment was one of regret as the play-offs would have been competed between bitter old foes Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV had Heidenheim not trumped them. Heidenheim are too strong for Hamburger mentally though, and it showed. I really don’t think today’s game will be any different, and I doubt my opinion would change even if Terodde could play.

Heidenheim are a flexible team; their work-rate allows them to be. I wouldn’t call them brilliant at defending, but they can be good at it because they need to be. The only real special part of the team is their attack, and that’s only been true since Kleindienst came back. This is a complicated team to actually beat at the best of times though, let alone when a late push for promotion is back on the agenda – and they managed it last season, albeit with misfortune in the play-offs. Why not again today? 

Whether Heidenheim make it to the division above or not is something that will only be revealed in time. There’s a lot of competition at this level, and it generally comes down to who holds their nerve the best, so I am not prepared to make predictions at this stage. However, Heidenheim getting a positive result in Hamburg today is something I am prepared to get onboard with. It’s a great time to face Hamburger SV for a variety of reasons, and it’s a great time to back Heidenheim. At 19/20, I’m happy to back the visitors to get something today.

Verdict: Heidenheim to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 19/20.

Athletic Club vs Eibar

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

As sad as it is to see, I think this may be Eibar’s last season in the Primera Liga. Their entire existence in the Primera Liga has been a success story for Spanish football. They had to borrow money to get promoted (Xabi Alonso was one to donate) because they were self-sufficient, meaning they literally only had what they earned – which wasn’t much. They managed it, and have been a trailblazer for other clubs since then.

Eibar have been the first team in the Primera Liga to have a female owner, have made run-down Ipurua a feared venue to play at, and have played some lovely football over the years, doing both themselves and the Basque country proud with their efforts. Say what you like about them; Eibar’s players care, and I love to see it. This season though, their lack of quality is finally beginning to show through, and they don’t have enough money in reserve to bail the team out if that’s the issue. 

The risks they have been able to take over the past couple of years have generally failed, unfortunately. Muto with one goal in twenty-two appearances this season, for example? Has Angel ever been fit? Now there’s an over-reliance on Leon and Inui in midfield, and with Enrich having forgotten how to score goals, it’s not hard to see where things are going pear-shaped for Eibar. I genuinely wish them the best in the battle against the drop because the Primera Liga would be poorer without them. The above problems are proving too much for them though.

A derby trip to face Marcleino’s Athletic is not what they needed right now. Over the past few years, they’ve held their own well because Athletic struggled to find their identity ever since Bielsa left. Eibar were always confident and bold, which Athletic hated to deal with at that time. Now, though? Athletic are just the same but with better players, even with Inigo Martinez still suspended. Quite what Eibar hope to do to stop this relentless Athletic team at San Mames today, I really don’t know.

Similarly, I still can’t figure out how Marcelino turned this team into goal-scorers; they simply don’t have a good attack anymore. They’ve got grafters in abundance, and plenty of willing runners, but most of their starting eleven are midfielders, no matter where they’re actually played. Having a natural finisher is not something they’ve experienced for a while; it even felt forced with Aduriz, and how he scored as many as he did, I’ll never know. They’ve simply not found a solution in attack – until now. Marcelino has made them more confident in themselves, and suddenly the goals are flying in.

Raul Garcia is a beast in the air, and when flanked by Williams and Muniain, Athletic have ways to unsettle teams. They’ve still needed a line-leader though, which Marcelino has somehow coaxed Vilalibre into being. The kid is not a good finisher but is decent enough in the air, and his movement has improved. That’s seemingly been enough for Athletic to start scoring goals again via one medium or another. The one that has shone the most of late has been Berenguer though. Some of his goals have been more fortuitous than anything (e.g. the Copa del Rey goal against Levante) but his driving runs remind me of how he played under Mihajlovic at Torino, and it’s brilliant to see.

What else is there to say? It’s a Marcelino team, and he’s an absolute wizard for getting the most out of his players. Ignore his outbursts, and he’ll do a brilliant job. For me, he’s one of Spain’s best managers. He’s getting so much out of a limited attack that teams have begun fearing Athletic again now; how about that?! Working hard is one thing, but being effective is another thing entirely – and Marcelino has both. At long last, there’s an Athletic team present that I can trust to win derbies – and I do.

It won’t be easy; Basque derbies never are. The home win at 41/50 appeals to me though. 

Verdict: Athletic Club to win at 41/50.

Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg 

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

Some of you may have seen young Swede Jordan Larsson’s response to be omitted from the forthcoming Sweden squad, despite remarkable form for Spartak Moscow in Russia. He played a substantial role in their win against Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast on Thursday, and dedicated his two goals scored to Sweden boss Andersson – in a respectful way, to be fair to him. His more petulant days appear to be mostly behind him now. Still, bagging twice shows what motivation he had after being omitted from a squad that he realistically should have been in. Just imagine how Wolfsburg striker Wout Weghorst is feeling right now after Luuk de Jong was selected ahead of him in the most recent The Netherlands squad! 

I’m not a colossal fan of Weghorst; I often think that people overrate the target man because of his goal-scoring record. However, he’s good at what he does, and he works bloody hard. He’s no shrinking violet, basically, and being overlooked by his country at a time when there really aren’t any top class Dutch forwards is likely to make him work even harder today, if only to prove a point. His whole career was founded upon him working hard enough in the Eerste Divisie in order to get a chance in the Eredivisie. That’s his style, and it’s not changed since he moved to eastern Germany. When he’s got the bit between his teeth, Wolfsburg are that bit harder to handle too.

I backed them to beat Schalke 04 last time out but didn’t handicap them. I did that because they were without key midfielders like Steffen and Schlager, which I thought was a bit too much for them, despite the outstanding work of Glasner this season. It’s important not to get carried away with form, basically – it can be misleading, and I’m not daft enough to believe that Wolfsburg have suddenly unearthed the new Dzeko, de Bruyne, Grafite etc. etc. just because they’re playing well. As it happened, they trounced Schalke 04 anyway because…well, obvious reasons. 

Today, though, they welcome back Schlager, and that’s a big boost. He’s a terrific general, the Austrian, and has quickly established himself alongside Arnold in midfield to make a really robust, industrious, and effective pressing midfield, which Wolfsburg have needed for years because their nature is to be quite lazy. Although Swiss playmaker Steffen is still injured, and will be for a few weeks yet, Wolfsburg now have a good enough midfield for me to trust them to deal with an energetic Werder Bremen side today, even at the Weserstadion. Wolfsburg are not perfect, but they know how to annoy teams, and they’re now confident enough to outscore them even from difficult situations. Again, Glasner deserves a lot of credit for transforming this team from bottlers into an industrious, mentally confident one.

Now, I’ve been impressed with Bremen in 2021. They have managed to figure out how to break teams down again, largely thanks to star Kosovan creator Rashica finally being fit again. Having the speed out wide is one thing, both from wingers and wing-backs, and their central midfielders put themselves above in order to keep their opponents guessing. However, actually picking the right final ball for their big target men in the middle is another matter entirely. That led to few good chances being created, which heaped more pressure upon the Bremen goal-scorers, who – let’s face it – aren’t the best in front of goal anyway. I mean, I watch Sargent sometimes and I really do wonder how he became a professional forward. 

Anyway, Bremen have found a solution to the issue in Rashica, which is nice for them. Bremen are my favourite German club, so it’s lovely to see them making inroads in their battle against relegation. However, this is still a club with big problems. For example, the hole that Klaassen left when he moved back to The Netherlands has yet to be filled, meaning that they’re lacking a good ball carrier in the middle of the park. Their wing-backs need better understudies because Gebre Selassie is getting on a bit, and Augustinsson usually has one or two bad injuries per season, and Bremen rely heavily on their attacking full-backs/makeshift wingers. They need a better goal-getter in the six yard box, and they absolutely must find at least one more flair player. They were lucky enough to keep Rashica last season, and should be alright this season because of his injuries – but he won’t be there forever, and placing it all on him is a joke anyway.

Good teams should not struggle to break Bremen though; that’s the point. They’re too weak at the back, for starters, and they rely on playing out from the back too much. Few Bundesliga teams work harder than Bremen, and that’s something that can work in the home team’s favour if Wolfsburg decided not to work hard here. However, Glasner has brought tremendous industry to the visitors, particularly in midfield, so I’m struggling to envision Bremen having much joy here. They may end up scoring, but I just don’t know how they’ll stop Wolfsburg from outscoring them at this moment in time.

At 83/100, I’ll take my chances on the away win.

Verdict: VfL Wolfsburg to win at 83/100.

Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv 

KO: 17:15 (UK time)

I appreciate I’m going against the grain a bit here but I can’t help it. It’s simply a very good time to oppose Hapoel Be’er Sheva, and who better to mastermind a positive result against them than their former boss, Abukasis? He only returned to Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv earlier in 2021 so he still knows the Be’er Sheva squad inside out.

I know the visitors are in a bit of a grim place at the moment but I still think that they’re mostly lacking in luck. The Ligat Ha’al table suggests they should be taken seriously as relegation candidates but I just don’t see it. Yes, they need to win more games, but remember that the league splits in two after today, meaning that all of their future matches come against bottom eight teams. They’ll win one at some point, and that should serve as a convenient platform from which to win more. With a streetwise manager like Abukasis in charge, I just can’t bring myself to doubt Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv turning things around at some stage, basically.

They’re not playing particularly badly at the moment, to be fair. They had to deal with Covid-19 to begin with, and lately they’ve had three really tough games in a row, none of which they’ve disgraced themselves in. A lack of goal-scoring has hurt them, however. At some stage, things should click into gear, and Montenegrin target man Beciraj will start scoring because he knows the Ligat Ha’al inside out. There’s not enough quality going forward; everybody in Israel knows that. There’s still more there than the league table suggests though, which is what I am hoping to capitalise upon today.

I really do think that it’s a great time to oppose Be’er Sheva though; that’s the driving force here. Since losing Abukasis, even the return of their owner (this time pledging to spend money) has not improved anything. They’ve brought in a dinosaur of a manager to lead them (Levy), which has naturally been a disaster for an over-achieving team that Abukasis frankly worked wonders with earlier this season. They’ve still got boatloads of absentees, which seems to be all you’re guaranteed with this team anymore. I mean, only Be’er Sheva could finally devise a replacement for frequently injured centre-back Vitor by re-signing Elhamid, then somehow injuring Elhamid, and then getting a very rusty Vitor back to lead their bordering-upon-comical defence!

Salalich in midfield has started having lots of injury problems now too. Goldberg being out isn’t ever a loss really, but now Josue is spending a lot of time on the sidelines too. That’s where it gets a bit fishy, really. Corruption is pretty rife in Israeli football, and Be’er Sheva are not amongst the ‘in crowd’, meaning that they’ve got enemies, and decisions will go against them more than for them. Josue has received two red cards over the past month or so, and both were a joke; the first for spitting (which replays show he didn’t do), and then for a second yellow akin to van Persie at Nou Camp all of those years ago. It’s not a secret that Josue has carried this team this season, and these mysterious suspensions certainly seem the deliberate action of somebody. I would not be surprised if that same ‘somebody’ ensured that Be’er Sheva didn’t finish in the top six today either, for which they realistically need three points today.

It’s seven games without a win now for Be’er Sheva. They’ve got a donkey in charge, they’re missing lots of players, and either fate or corruption are conspiring against them. I’m sure you can see why I think they’re priced too short today. They’re priced on the team they used to be several years ago; Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv have been priced on where they are in the Ligat Ha’al. For me, there’s not as much between the two teams as the odds suggest, and with Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv having avoided defeat on their last two trips to Be’er Sheva, laying the home win tonight at 49/50 simply makes sense to me.

Verdict: Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 49/50.

Lugano vs FC Basel 

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

I warned you all about backing Luzern to beat FC Basel at 13/10 last weekend. It just wasn’t worth the risk. Don’t get me wrong; with better odds, I’d have took them with draw no bet (and also lost!) but I can rest easier at night knowing I did the right thing value-wise, even if I didn’t have the required luck on the day.

Again, FC Basel’s absentees – although plentiful – are attackers that they’re better off without (e.g. Kalulu) or defenders. That doesn’t make their attack worse; it makes their defending worse. FC Basel conceding goals doesn’t surprise me, even after they got Comert etc. back. They’re still horribly short of options at wing-back, and the goalkeeping situation they’ve got leaves everybody uncertain because Lindner and Nikolic have problems; one is erratic, and the other is injured too often. That, fused with the natural nervousness that FC Basel have adopted over the past few years means that they’re never far away from conceding.

Scoring goals is not beyond them though; far from it. Cabral is still banging in goals up front, and he’s got a lot of very able support from Zhegrova, Kasami, and Frei, not to mention newbie Palacios. I should also include Stocker, who is now back from his forced vacation, although with Sforza still manager, I really don’t know what the future holds for the playmaker. There’s enough creativity and vision there for anybody on the pitch to score for FC Basel though, and for them to not miss Abrashi whilst he’s injured – again.

That’s a team that I need a good reason to oppose, and I don’t have one today. I like what Lugano have done mid-season, bringing in Abubakar to lead their charges, and the Portuguese forward has done really well, all things considered, even if he would have liked to have scored more. His arrival has forced Gerndt to be better though, and you all know how good he can be by now, albeit in fits and starts. Bottani has stepped his game up too, and even Lungoyi has been joining in. It’s still not a perfect attacking setup at Lugano, but it’s the best they’ve had for years now.

I’ve never really doubted Lugano’s commitment, and the sheer energy in their midfield makes them hard to score against, and hard to suppress. It’s goal-scoring that has evaded them for a while – but not so much in 2021, which is nice. They’ve also improved in overall organisation, allowing them to keep more clean sheets. I couldn’t honestly state that any Swiss team is good at defending, but Lugano are one of the better ones at it, mostly by virtue of needing to be because of goal-shy displays!

Now they’ve got a nice enough balance though, enough so to make FC Basel uncomfortable. I’m not bold enough to back Lugano to win such challenging fixtures but I recognise their improvements enough to be wary of opposing them; I’ll put it that way. Southern Switzerland has seldom been a happy hunting ground for FC Basel over the years, and now Lugano have a number of players at their disposal that are capable of causing problems all by themselves, I think we’re set for an interesting game here.

I won’t pick a winner, but backing both teams to score at 4/5 is an appealing prospect for me.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.