TFT Issue 3379!

Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor 

KO: 10:30 (UK time)

After embarrassing themselves in the Turkish Cup midweek by losing 2-0 against Antalyaspor, a good Super Lig finish is now the only route for Alanyaspor to secure European football next season. They’re capable of doing it, but now they have to. They’ve spent a lot of money over the past year or two; not having European football isn’t acceptable, especially not in a highly impatient competition.

I still don’t like Alanyaspor under Tokatli, though – let me be clear on that front. I don’t think that they play anywhere near as well as they have done in the past. Alanyaspor being open at the back isn’t concerning or new; that’s how they always are. It’s their attacking that bothers me because they’ve been a bit predictable with it, enough so for Turkey’s top teams to find life easy against them, which wasn’t the case in the preceding campaign. It won’t take much to change it around but I just don’t think that Tokatli is the man for the job, I’m afraid. He may prove me wrong, and I certainly hope he does today – but I doubt he will overall. They’re just too passive like they currently are, Alanyaspor.

Having said that though, they’ve done well in the Super Lig lately. They capitalised upon Trabzonspor’s overly emotional state very well indeed, running out 3-1 winners in Trabzon against what is essentially a far superior team. After that, they humped a good Antalyaspor side 4-0 at home, which is why then losing against the same 2-0 in the Cup midweek was so embarrassing. Here’s a fun thought, though – maybe, just maybe, Alanyaspor want a UEFA Champions League place. How about that? I wouldn’t bet against it either. I might have done a month or so back, but not now.

Galatasary are falling apart, and if Fenerbahce drop points today, their heads are going to drop too, most probably with their manager getting the chop at some stage. Neither of those two Istanbul juggernauts are known for their mental strength nowadays so is it really beyond Alanyaspor to consider taking the other place? They won’t catch Besiktas, obviously, but despite there being a lot of points between them and the other two, I really wouldn’t put it past them gunning for second. They’re mentally stronger than Galatasaray and Fenerbahce, and they’ve still got a home game against Fenerbahce to come. It’ll be interesting to see how things pan out.

Either way, I think Alanyaspor have to put on a display today. Again, I’m not concerned about the prospect of them conceding; that’s Alanyaspor through and through. With the maniacs they’ve got at the back, and overly attack-minded full-backs, conceding goals is always a lingering hazard. It’s their attack that interests me because it’s good; far better than the statistics suggest, actually. There are a lot of intelligent players in this squad, few moreso than playmaker Ucan, who was unlucky to miss out on a place in the Turkish national team call-up lately. Even if Babacar fails his late fitness test today, Alanyaspor still have Bareiro, Kadzior, and Davidson to do the damage, and that’s enough for me. I can’t envision the scenario whereby that’s not enough to overcome Konyaspor, home or away.

Helpfully, Konyaspor look a bit poor at the moment. Their focus this season has been playing defensively anyway, but after a few results didn’t go their way, the manager naturally got the chop. Now it’s Parlatan that gets to lead the team, which has quickly fallen flat after a decent start. They’re still not losing many but they aren’t looking like winning any either, generally doing just about enough to survive. Other than Fenerbahce at home, they’ve not had hard games recently so failing to beat Gazisehir, Kasimpasa, and arguably even out-of-sorts Istanbul BB is pretty embarrassing for a team battling relegation.

They’re still struggling for options at the back too, which has to be frustrating for Partalan. They’re giving away some sloppy goals but he can’t really rotate with the likes of Anicic, Uludag, and Yardimci all out with long-term injuries. Each opponent knows what defence they’re come up against because of that, and that sure does make preparation that bit easier. Furthermore, I have to imagine that Skubic and Guilherme are starting to feel it, you know? They’ve both played in most Konyaspor games this season, and people tend to forget that the Super Lig size was not only increased this season to accommodate the promoted teams and those exempt from relegation, but games have also been played every three days. Food for thought.

I won’t deny that Konyaspor have some attacking threats that need to be marshalled, especially in Bytyqi – if he’s in the mood. Truth be told though, there’s not a lot of consistency in the Konyaspor attack because of, yet again, injuries. I’m a big fan of their midfielder Miya, for example, but he’s been out a lot this season. He carries the ball really well, and makes things happen without much fuss – but he can’t do much from the sidelines. Eduok has missed most of this campaign through injury too. The cherry on the cake is that their only viable route to goal is via target men Cikalleshi and Kravets, and neither of them are good enough to make things happen by themselves so the lack of consistency in the team’s setup isn’t helping them. 

All things considered, I think it’s a really bad time for Konyaspor, and they’re only getting worse with time. I think Alanyaspor need to win this one, whether they play well or not, and they sure as hell look the more likely team to do so. Don’t forget that there are no fans allowed so there’s no real home advantage here. Therefore, 11/10 on the away win sits rather well with me.

Verdict: Alanyaspor to win at 11/10.

Racing Club Strasbourg vs Racing Club Lens 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I seldom oppose Strasbourg at home without good reason. Based on their displays in 2021 though, and the fact that star playmaker Kakuta is back for Lens, I almost feel compelled to do so today.

This calendar year, Strasbourg look weary. Not physically; they’re still holding up quite well on that front. No, they look weary mentally. Strasbourg not having the best players in Ligue 1 is not a surprise to anyone, but even their own stars are beginning to make bad decisions too often. I mean, you could argue that a team which voluntarily fields crackpot goalkeeper Kawashima as their number one deserves to mess things up more often than not, but it’s more than just average errors that are being made. Waris has not been at the races all season long, but now Diallo hasn’t scored for ages and is snatching at chances. The lack of patience in build-ups means that big Ajorque doesn’t get the required service, and he’s never going to make anything happen by himself. Even Lienard in midfield is feeling it.

The only one still performing in attack is Thomasson, who really is an underrated creator. The rest have their moments but everything feels very fragmented and forced, which is leading to too many individual errors. They’re still getting into good positions, Strasbourg, but they’re not making it count, even moreso than usual. The additional problem that creates is that they’re not controlling games well either. I’ve seen too many teams keep the ball from them this season, even in Strasbourg. Sometimes that works out well – I think Strasbourg are actually better against France’s top teams than the rest because of it. In games like today’s though, it leaves them short.

Strasbourg’s defending is not the best for such situations either. Again, they’re fine in one-on-one battles because they’re an athletic defence. Tactical defending is generally beyond them though, so surrendering possession as easily as they have been is a real pain for them. Don’t get me wrong; this will never be an easy team to beat. Let’s just say that it’s far easier to do so at the moment than it normally is though, and it’s entirely of Strasbourg’s own making, really.

Lens should be able to capitalise upon such today. They still look fresh, and as I said above, Kakuta is back to lead their midfield today. They actually performed well without him against Metz (he did make a cameo near the end), although scoring goals against Metz is not something to write home about; it’s keeping them at bay that is the problem, and Lens failed on that front. Especially in 2021, it’s felt a lot like Medina is on his own at the back, which has naturally led to goals being conceded. Still, it’s important to retain a sense of perspective; this is effectively a Ligue 2 side performing as a top six Ligue 1 side thanks to some shrewd and calculated signings. Therefore, conceding goals at this stage of the season is completely understandable.

I like how they’ve reacted so positively to their situation though, Lens. Instead of worrying about whether they’re good enough defensively, they’ve really started to play on the front foot against teams on a regular basis, enough so for Ganago’s continued absence up front to be less relevant. He was electric on the break earlier in the season but the reality now is that Lens are beating teams by being more controlling in games, creating more chances from open play, and feeding their big target men in the middle well. Youngster Muinga is always there if they do want more pace as they sit back, but they seem content enough and fit enough to play on the front foot, which is really encouraging to see.

They’ve got a brilliant creator in Kakuta; an absolute wizard who has wasted his career but has finally come full circle. They’ve got good engines behind in Fofana and the wild Cahuzac, who is remarkably yet to be sent off this season. Everything about this team screams “togetherness”, though, and that’s what I love about Lens. They attack and defend as one, are good at creating and taking chances, and are good at stopping other teams from dominating them. This is a team to take seriously, and it’s one that should relish facing a wasteful Strasbourg today.

At 4/5, I’m happy to back the away win with draw no bet cover. 

Verdict: Racing Club Lens to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Greuther Furth vs Nurnberg 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

On paper, this bet is ludicrous. Nurnberg arguably have a better squad than Furth, not that you’d know it from the Bundesliga 2 table! Based on what I’ve seen on the pitch though, backing Furth to handicap Nurnberg at 27/20 today is a bit of a steal, really.

Furth may be performing above their station this season but they’ve earned the right to do so by working hard, both on the pitch and behind the scenes, assembling a good and intelligent squad. Few Bundesliga 2 teams are as tactically astute as they are, and they’ve made themselves very competitive via numerous methods. I’d go as far as to say that they’re the most flexible team in the division. Unbeatable? No, of course not. They give themselves a damn good chance in every game though, and with a Bundesliga 2 promotion place well within reach, they’ve got that bit of extra energy about them at the moment that normally would have faded by now because of the fatigue that sets in after a prolonged period without successful rotation taking place.

Furth are now in a mental place that allows them to cope when the likes of Mavraj are injured, and he’s easily their best defender. Having two Bundesliga strikers on their books certainly aids their cause, but it’s their midfield that has stood out for me this season. Last season, when Sarpei started playing more, I wondered if we’d get to see the best of him or not and I left the season feeling like we hadn’t. This season, though? He’s been amazing in front of that back four, even positively contributing to attacks with his positive, measured passes. Ernst has been phenomenal, Seguin has been excellent, and Green has been his typical unplayable self. I just love that they’ve removed that burden that Green almost exclusively bore last season.

Everything works in this squad, basically. They’re diligent, tenacious, and have just enough quality to get them through tough encounters. At no stage this season have I ever felt that they’ve been outplayed either, which is another feather in the cap of boss Leitl. I can’t advise you of any weaknesses in this squad; that’s the biggest compliment I can give Furth. They’ve overcome their problems, they’ve improved their squad, and they look mentally strong enough for a promotion push. What’s not to like about them?

Nurnberg should be in the same equation, of course, but they’re not – again. They did plenty of work pre-season to improve their squad, and I didn’t find myself disagreeing with any of their acquisitions, but it’s not worked out. They had a few months of being fairly good at the start of the season but in 2021 have returned to their usual dour selves. Every point they pick up seems to be overly fortunate to have been earned, and the over-reliance on veteran striker Schaffler is embarrassing, considering that they only picked him up from Wehen Wiesbaden pre-season, who were relegated last season. Everything positive they do – and that’s very limited! – seems to stem from individuals rather than the collective, which is just embarrassing, really. It’s as if Nurnberg don’t want to get back to the Bundesliga.

I know they brought Daehli in earlier in 2021, which was a good bit of business, but this still feels like a group of individuals instead of a team. Their attack should be one of the best in the division but it’s just not. They can blame Lohkemper (out again now, after just coming back!) and Kopke’s absence, should they wish, and I’ll agree it’s not helped but it doesn’t explain why they look so lifeless and predictable on the pitch. Schaffler looks to be the only one that gives a shit in that attack at the moment, and I say that knowing that classy Hack does too but he’s still injured. I’ve been a touch disappointed in Geis not stepping up to batter those around him into giving a shit, and Dovedan can do better, but it’s still the collective that is the problem here.

Again, Nurnberg have one of the best squads in the division, for my money – but they never, ever show it. The general impression I get when watching them is their players are playing out the football equivalent of a shoulder shrug. Nurnberg simply do not look like they give a shit at any time. I might be proven wrong today; they could beat Furth if they really set their minds to it. I don’t even remember the last time I last watched Nurnberg win and walked away without thinking, “Christ, that was fortunate!”. You know what’s really concerning though? They’re going to get dragged into the relegation battle – and they’re not strong enough mentally to get out of it alive. All of the teams around them in the table look far more steely than they do, and remember how lucky they were to survive the play-offs last season too. This is a really bad time for Nurnberg in general, and an even worse time for them to face Furth away.

I can accept the hosts winning this one by a one-goal margin, hence the insurance of my pick, because they’re good enough to sit on their opponents if they choose to. Nurnberg’s despondent displays will only encourage Furth here though, and they’re good enough to kill the game off on the break if they do sit back, so I am happy to take my chances on backing Furth to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 27/20.

Verdict: Greuther Furth to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 27/20.

TSG Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

Few teams in Germany are better at this stage of the season than Mainz 05, at least not based on the past few years. Admittedly, that’s only because they’re usually embroiled in a battle against relegation and every point counts – and that’s certainly the case today. Nonetheless, it affords Mainz 05 the possibility of performing well above their station, and I expect more of the same from them today.

From their past six games, only Augsburg have beaten Mainz 05, and they really had to sweat for it! They’ve drawn at Bayer 04 Leverkusen, beaten Gladbach away, and have even beaten stubborn teams like Union and Freiburg too. This is now a resilient, focused team that are desperate to stay up. The desire to remain a Bundesliga team has kicked in quite early but there’s no harm in that, really. They all seem desperate for Danish boss Svensson, who took over in January, to keep his job. 

One of the mistakes his predecessor made was to axe Hungarian legend Szalai from the squad. By no means is Szalai a Ferenc Puskas, but he is highly regarded at Mainz 05 for obvious reasons. Pushing someone like out of the squad from the start was a huge error. It’s not a coincidence that this battling, focused Mainz 05 has appeared since the Hungarian beanpole returned to their line-up. He’s not got a good first touch, but he’s a clever player, he’s great in the air, and he gives a shit. Someone like that is invaluable to a team like Mainz 05, who are littered with live wires in attack but not much by way of brawn and consistency, which is why they swooped to sign Glatzel earlier in 2021.

With Quaison back fit – and speculated by the German media to make his first start since returning today – and possibly Onisiwo too, either Glatzel or Szalai will have good support today. Oztunali is back on the wing, and as their most dangerous wide player, that’s a big boost. The addition of Kohr in midfield has given them experience, energy, and consistency, and has made it less important for Boetius to do his defensive duties, which naturally makes him happier and thus better when getting forward. It’s all positive at Mainz 05 right now; even defender St. Juste has got himself called up to The Netherlands national team! Watching them play, you’d never guess they were battling for their lives; they look more like a team pushing for a UEFA Europa League place to me.

Hosts Hoffenheim may be the better team here, but when did they last prove it? They’ve been regressing for a few years now, and I genuinely think they might get relegated next season after they almost inevitably lose Kramaric at the end of the current campaign. They play some nice football at times, but there’s no real belief in this squad, and their effectiveness is weaker than ever. At their pique, Hoffenheim were never infallible; always conceding as well as scoring. However, they used to work hard, give a shit, and do their utmost to outscore opponents. This Hoffenheim does not do that.

When a team makes the decision to be top-heavy (i.e. stronger in attack than defence) it’s with the understanding that they score enough goals to make it work. Kramaric has upheld his side of that particular bargain, if you will, but nobody else has. Skov has flopped, Dabbur is not good enough for this level, I don’t remember the last time Belfodil looked confident in front of goal, and Adamyan is not good enough for this level. The only one to give a shit as much as Kramaric is Bebou, and he’s not a natural goal-scorer. In that eventuality, you need a midfield that will score goals too, which…well, they don’t have.

I’m a big fan of their defensive midfielders, though. Rudy is well-known at this level, and Samassekou is a very underrated player. Other than that, this midfield is seriously lightweight though. Austrian midfielder Baumgartner is the closest they’ve had to a natural attacking midfielder this season (an effective one), but he’s still learning his trade. He’s been listed as a doubt today too; he may not even play. I liked Gacinovic at Frankfurt but at Hoffenheim, he doesn’t look settled, most probably because of a lack of quality alongside him. Again, it’s all about Kramaric in attack, or their overlapping wing-backs. I’m sorry, but that’s just not enough for what’s purported to be a top seven Bundesliga team.

Their defence is as bad as I’ve ever seen it too. After twenty-five Bundesliga games, just two of their defenders have played more than fifteen games. Part of that is down to injuries, but part of it is down to them not being good enough. Nuhu was the start of a bad trend; I never thought he looked all that good in Switzerland. Now Nordtveit can’t get fit, Stafylidis – I don’t even remember when he last played, Kaderabek has had a lot of injuries, Bicakcic has missed most of the campaign, Hubner has been out all season. It’s a disastrous defensive setup with no end in sight. Even Molde put two goals past them at home in the UEFA Europa League lately, and the second goal was pure, unfiltered Hoffenheim at their worst. 

To put it bluntly, nobody should ever trust Hoffenheim nowadays. They can score goals sometimes, it’s true – that’s the risk. They don’t play well, though – ever. They are utterly incapable of keeping teams out, and few players look like they give a shit. Their defence is in tatters, and most experiments they’ve made in the transfer market have failed. Why this team should suddenly beat Robo-Mainz 05, who are seriously focused and confident at the moment, I don’t know. Yes, Hoffenheim should be favourites, but not to this extent. For me, it makes sense to back the visitors to get something today. 

Verdict: Mainz 05 to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 9/10.

AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven

KO: 13:30 (UK time)

It can’t just be me that thinks that PSV Eindhoven have been quite poor over the past month or two, can it? I know their results suggest otherwise but that’s because of their individuals, not the collective.

You see, when Ajax play well, for example, I know it’s because the team is doing their job. It’s very much a team game there. PSV have been all about individuals this season though, and given how many newbies have arrived there, perhaps it’s unfair of me to expect more than that from them – I guess I am just used to watching great PSV teams, as I did when I was younger. The reality is that this isn’t a great PSV team though, no matter how many games they win. It’s a great group of attacking players, and that’s how they’re grinding their way past Eredivisie teams. Their actual play isn’t very good though.

It’s something I picked up on earlier in the season because they really found it hard in the UEFA Europa League. In 2021 though, that’s carried over into the Eredivisie, and teams have picked up on it. Tactics may not be all that popular in the crazy Eredivisie, but teams are still quite sharp, and they certainly don’t play with any fear. For example, they faced Sparta Rotterdam away from home back in January and were outplayed – but won because they scored five (conceding three). They were outplayed by FC Emmen for a good seventy minutes in the same month; how they won that game 2-0 still baffles me to this day. 

Of late, their meagre efforts to control games have been getting picked up on by teams. Relegation-threatened ADO Den Haag held them to a 2-2 draw because the visitors didn’t control the game well enough. They only managed a 1-1 draw at home against a very under-strength Ajax team. They made life hard for themselves against Fortuna Sittard away, only just edging past them, and then dropped points again, drawing 1-1 at home against Feyenoord Rotterdam. It may not look so bad on paper, drawing with Feyenoord, but that was not a good Feyenoord team. It’s a team that this PSV side should beat all day long – and failed again. They may not be losing many, PSV, but they’re looking likely to change that very soon by their complete inability to control a game of football.

If you asked me to pick the better team on paper between AZ and PSV, I would choose PSV. However, if you asked me to pick which team executed a better game plan, I would not hesitate in picking AZ. They have their limitations, the Alkmaar club, but Jansen’s boys play good football, and look to keep teams on the back foot. They press well, they’re comfortable in possession, and they find it easy to create chances. They’ve bagged sixteen goals in five games now, and that’s not a coincidence. Sure, they live life on the edge, almost never defending properly, and that won’t improve today with Hatzdiakos out. 

However, from an attacking perspective, this is a really difficult team to contain. They’ve still got Boadu and Stengs to wreak havoc, and have found a new Idrissi in his fellow countryman Aboukhal, which has to come as something of a relief because the more I watch Gudmundsson, the more convinced I get that he’s not good enough for this level, at least not with his finishing. The last time I said that he bagged twice, mind you, and I wouldn’t complain if he fancied doing that today. He’s still a bit poor though, whatever he does today. Ex-Elfsborg Boras forward Karlsson has done well too. 

It’s not complicated to work out what AZ do, but stopping them is something very different. They used a lot of fast players, both out wide and through the middle, and rely on their dribblers to create chances or win free-kicks/penalties. That approach is a bit too antiquated for Europe, at least without having better players, but it works rather well in a division when you’re better than most teams in it. They’ve got a great deal of energy, stamina, and good passers in midfield too – Koopmeiners has been terrific this season – and they’re on the same page enough to constantly make teams uncomfortable, which I like.

Therefore, although I recognise that AZ have weaknesses, I can see them really irking PSV today. I would be surprised if the visitors won this one, although I recognise it’s far from impossible. For me, the value has to be on AZ at draw no bet odds of 9/10; they simply know how to control games and hurt teams whereas PSV are always fighting the tide in games.

Verdict: AZ Alkmaar to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

Dijon FCO vs Stade de Reims 

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

What I love about Reims is the way they control games. They’re seriously good at it, far better than the Ligue 1 table would have you believe. The only area they let themselves down in is actually converting their opportunities because they create plenty, and they seldom look fazed by anything that their opponents do.

They’re unbeaten in five now, Reims, and they’ve had some tough games along the way, mostly recently Olympique Lyonnais at home. Admittedly, they’ve not won enough of them but Guion has done a terrific job with this group, and not for the first time too. He’s only added more quality to an already impressive squad from last season. I love how they haven’t had to pick between controlling games and constantly having defenders nervous about players turning and running at them because they have both. I’d love to see how far they’d be up the Ligue 1 table with a natural goal-scorer, honestly.

I know Dia has had a breakout season for Reims but it was never going to last, and zero Ligue 1 goals since early January tells you that much. Sierhuis hasn’t bagged any this season, and youngsters Toure and Mbuku have struggled for goals too, although they’re both still learning their trade. If they could get a Tavares, or even Jimmy Briand just for a season, they’d do seriously well because there really isn’t much wrong with this team. 

I would criticise their defence if I thought any team had truly got at it but not many have for a few weeks now; Reims are simply too good at retaining the ball high up the park, pressing constantly. Actually getting at the Reims defence has been incredibly challenging for everybody that’s lined up against them lately. They’ve only done one thing wrong in recent times, Reims, and that’s to see games out properly. They’ve turned six points into two because of last minute goals conceded. If that’s their biggest problem 2/3 of the way through a campaign though, then it should go some distance as to telling you how good they are.

There’s just no containing Cafaro, Berisha, Zeneli etc. and that should be especially true for cellar dwellers Dijon today. I actually quite like Dijon but they’ve had rotten luck this season, and it’s going to cost them their place in Ligue 1. They’re too far behind the rest, have got zero momentum, and their weaknesses are showing far more than their strengths right now. I still think that Balde is one of Ligue 1’s better dribblers, for example, and Celina is an excellent creator; I would not be at all surprised to see him join the Kosovan revolution at Reims next season! Assale’s injury problems have prevented him from showing how good he is, and the same can be said of Benzia, although the latter has been injured for years now, or so it feels.

The icing on the cake was signing Kamara to be the solution to their attacking problems. I appreciate that they don’t have much money but this guy is beyond a wildcard; he’s got a terrible attitude, and that’s not what Dijon are about. Yes, they needed to do something – but not that. Their lack of goal-scoring has made them far easier to play against. Teams know that scoring once will generally be enough now, not that it deters them from trying for more. Teams can also be more adventurous, confident in making their opponents fall apart rather than fearing what they have to offer. Dijon are basically on the back foot, haven’t got any leaders to carry them through, and are not scoring enough goals.

Subsequently, the ball is forever coming back at them, and that’s led to them conceding a lot of goals. In general, I actually think they’ve put together a good defence for this season but under this much duress, they were always going to concede goals. Again, I still think it’s mostly down to bad luck that they’re even in this position but they are in this position, and they’re not getting out of it. Importantly, they don’t look like they believe in their ability to get out of it either. That’s going to make tackling possession-hungry Reims today, even at home, very difficult indeed.

Therefore, I’m left feeling like the away win at 11/10 is a bit of a steal today.

Verdict: Stade de Reims to win at 11/10.

Sepsi vs Gaz Metan Medias

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Although Sepsi have drawn too many games this season, they still find themselves in fourth place in the Liga 1 table, which speaks volumes about the state of the competition in Romania right now. They’re essentially high in the table because they’ve lost less games than other teams, not because they’ve won a lot. 

So why am I backing these draw machines to win today? Well, several reasons, really. Firstly, I think three points here would go some distance as to securing fourth spot for them before the Liga 1 splits. They’re not going to catch any of the teams above them, but they can at least ensure that any dreams of a Botosani revival are quashed before they begin. If they can win today, and win at UTA Arad before almost certainly losing against FCSB, they’ll be in a fine position when the league split comes about. They should be able to do it today too.

Despite their draws, Sepsi are seldom far away from scoring goals. It’s mostly through a loss of focus that they drop points, not through being bad defensively. If the right team applies the right pressure, Sepsi will buckle – but Gaz Metan Medias should not be that team. They have played better than their form guide suggests, it’s true, but it’s not helped them be any more effective. No, as long as Sepsi take one or two of their chances via target man Safranko or hsi new understudy Rapp, they should be just fine here. They’ve got enough flair players in midfield and enough grafters to put Gaz Metan Medias off so I don’t really have a good reason to doubt Sepsi today, especially as I’ve not heard any team news to worry me.

I also think that bad luck will play a part here. Gaz Metan Medias simply don’t have any luck at the moment. They’re creating chances, and can’t score them. All of their individual errors at the back result in goals being conceded. All of their misplaced passes result in yellow cards for poorly timed recovery challenges or chances for opponents. What can you even do about that? The problem is that Gaz Metan Medias recognise the desperate situation that they now find themselves in and one goal is enough to depress them further. Before that, they tend to be ok, but afterward they simply look like it’s game over – and perhaps it is, at least for life in Liga 1. Time will tell.

The reality is that, no matter how unlucky Gaz Metan Medias have been, they’ve lost way too many games in a row. They’ve never been good defensively anyway, but to be poor offensively too is killing them. They can’t get their former hero Eric fit since re-signing him, meaning that their attack is still ineffectual. There’s too much brawn and industry in midfield, and not enough quality. It’s far from a lost cause at Gaz Metan Medias but for the present, they’re certainly a team to oppose. 

Therefore, at 4/5, I’m happy to trust the home team today.

Verdict: Sepsi to win at 4/5.

Udinese vs SS Lazio

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Most bettors have gone the other way here, and I get it – Gotti’s boys have rediscovered their home advantage in a big way lately, not even conceding a goal for four games now. Lazio bring a different dynamic to the equation though, and that’s what I expect to be the variant here.

Udinese are capable of sitting on teams, you see. It’s not the defence that is particularly good, per se, but the defensive shape of the team. Gotti’s tactics are very good in that respect, and their midfield is really good in situations like that, partially because their attacking options are now so good that the defensive midfielders’ support isn’t required as much, and partially because they’re also a lot more organised in that respect. They’re certainly not infallible but they’ve been good enough to deal with certain threats this season.

With preparation, Udinese can deal with most Serie A attacks, really – it’s fighting opponents with goal-scoring that bothers Udinese, or being forced into situations they haven’t prepared for. I mean, from their past four home games, the only one that really impressed me was the draw against Internazionale, and I say that in the most respectful way possible as they’re all good results. Internazionale bring a lot more to the table than most at this level, and you really have to adapt in order to handle them, so I thought Udinese did really well to repel them. Sassuolo and Fiorentina, though? I’m less impressed because they broadcast how they’re going to play in every single game so Udinese being ready for them was of no surprise to me.

There are a few teams that you can’t prepare for though, namely Atalanta Bergamo, Juventus, Internazionale, AC Milan, and Lazio. That’s what I expect to be different today because you can’t filter Lazio, or make them uncomfortable. Inzaghi has done a really good job there, and the capital club are now capable of scoring from most scenarios. That’s what Udinese are up against today, and I don’t see that going too well for them. I believe Lazio are going to force them out of their shells, and that’s fine – Udinese have a really good attack, which is something I’ve been able to say rather rarely over the past few years! Even with Deulofeu still a doubt, they’ve got Pereyra and de Paul to cause problems, and it’s a lot easier to service Llorente in the middle because he’s brilliant in the air and on the floor. Udinese should not struggle to score today, basically – as long as they actually try to.

Lazio may have normally been able to keep them at bay but lately have defended seriously badly. I’m not even talking about the Bayern double-headers either, although they were especially woeful in the first leg of that. No, I remember watching them host Crotone and that was real heart-in-mouth stuff. I know they’ve had some hard games lately, Lazio, and Inzaghi doesn’t have the biggest squad to rotate, but this feels like something more than that. Lazio simply haven’t been controlling games at all, and that’s a really dangerous approach to take, not just in Europe but also in a highly competitive Serie A.

I don’t doubt that Lazio have the capability to outscore Udinese today but whether they will or not is a coin toss to me. They gave Bayern as good a shot as they could mid-week in their somewhat redundant second leg, and did a good job for the last twenty minutes or so, nearly equalising. That performance took a lot out of them though, as Bayern are a very athletic team. I’m struggling to accept that Lazio can now go to the Friuli and put in another lung-bursting display against Udinese without any consequences. They’re attacking very well, Lazio, but they’re really not doing enough defensively from a lot of perspectives – and Udinese might just punish them for it.

I do think Lazio will score here though. Like I said above, you can’t neutralise Lazio, really. They can play wide, through the middle, or play for set pieces; they’re very good at all of those. For me, this is a game where Milinkovic-Savic should be in his element because Udinese aren’t going to be able to shackle him. Either way, I believe that Lazio are doing enough at the moment to make this game more interesting than Udinese want it to be, which is why I’m backing both teams to score at 9/10.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 9/10.

Aalborg BK vs OB

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

With Okore now gone from Aalborg, I would not bank on them keeping a clean sheet anytime soon. It took them a lot of years to find a centre-back of that quality to not only play for them but stay there too, and playing without him is going to kick them square in the ball for the rest of the season.

Today’s game is more about OB than it is about Aalborg though, as the away team have been seriously bad lately. I mean, with Okore gone and Andersen still injured, there aren’t many teams I’d back Aalborg to beat in Denmark right now. OB is one of the teams I would back them to beat, though, and it’s not solely about Aalborg needing to win in order to stand a chance of a top six finish, although that extra motivation sure does help!

No, I think Aalborg have done well to sign Hiljemark, who can now play after recovering from injury, which should lessen the importance of Andersen’s absence. The arrival of live wire Herraiz in attack has not directly brought more goals for the team, but indirectly it’s led to teams struggling to cope with Aalborg overloads. They do need to find a regular goal-getter, Aalborg, unless Prica intends on maturing into that role. Fossum won’t have a season like this again, that’s for sure, and Kusk’s better days are behind him whilst Andersen is seldom free of injuries. They’ve at least got options though, and that’s enough today, especially on the back of two good wins.

OB are a joke, though – that has to be the main point here. Did you hear what they’ve done recently? It’s comedy gold, honestly. They’ve not only sacked Michelsen, the only manager from their last ten to guide them to a top six finish, but have appointed ex-Aalborg manager(!) Gaarde to help them find a new manager! What the hell is the thinking there?! Hemmingsen is the interim manager now but he has no role in helping find a replacement. Is anyone else bewildered by this, or is it just me?

Another element of confusion on the Michelsen front is why sack him now? It was very apparent that they weren’t going to renew his contract at the end of the season anyway, and it’s not like OB are in dire straits right now. It’s an utterly perplexing decision from a consistency standpoint. They may have lost three on the trot now but they’ve faced two of Denmark’s best teams along the way so let’s be realistic; those kind of results are to be expected. It’s not the 2000s anymore, after all, which is the last time OB were actually a top team in Denmark.

Don’t get me wrong now; OB have some good players, they really do. Jebali has shown what he can do this season, thriving after star creator Kadirii moved to Al Fateh in Saudi Arabia. Hilariously, Kadirii has now returned to Denmark with his tail between his legs, and these two creators really don’t seem to be able to play together, which is yet another problem for OB to overcome. What they’ve done to poor Norwegian forward Svendsen, I genuinely have no idea; he looks a shadow of his former self, and that leaves the team without a natural goal-scorer. Drachmann’s injury problems have left the back four more exposed, and this is one of the Superligaen’s weaker defences anyway. I know that Opondo, Okosun etc. have their moments, and again, OB are not a bad team – but they’re sure as hell doing their best to become one, and it’s working.

Therefore, despite Aalborg’s shortcomings, I expect a home win today.

Verdict: Aalborg BK to win at 11/10.

Besiktas JK vs Fenerbahce 

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

There are a number of ways to look at this derby, and whichever one I see, I still come up with the same answer; under 2.5 goals.

Firstly, Besiktas JK want to win the title. They’re at the top of the Super Lig, playing the best football in Turkey, winning the most games, and demonstrating the strongest mentality. Their title contenders are dropping too many points to be taken seriously, which only encourages Besiktas JK to continue. They’ve actually got two games in hand on Galatasaray at the moment, and are two points clear of them. They’re five points clear of Fenerbahce with a game in hand on them too. Therefore, my question here is this; why should Besiktas JK try to win this game? A draw would be just fine here. They know that they can sit and wait for Fenerbahce because, if the visitors are to win the title, and Bulut is to keep his job, Fenerbahce have to win here. It just doesn’t seem worth the risk from Besiktas’ perspective.

Another angle to consider is that Fenerbahce are very defensive under Bulut, often opting to play without the ball. They’re more effective whilst Ozil is out (for once, I wish he was playing!) but this is still a team that relies heavily on its defensive structure. That means that Besiktas can dominate this match without working for it, which means that they can play it at their own pace – and that’s not to throw games wide open, and risk conceding goals. In essence, it should be played as Besiktas want it to be, at least for the majority of the match, and that in itself is an under 2.5 goals approach.

On top of that, you have to appreciate that there aren’t any fans allowed in Turkish stadiums at the moment. That hands the initiative to away teams anyway, hence so many Super Lig away wins this season. However, it also absolutely destroys derbies. The Turks are a very passionate bunch; their derbies are a real sight. The intensity, the pride, the passion – it’s all extremely evident. Take the fans away from the equation, however, and everything goes very flat and nervous. I’ve seen it numerous times over the past twelve months, particularly in Istanbul derbies, and they tend to end as low-scoring encounters due to a lack of chances. Christ there’s usually a lack of cards too, which really does say it all.

Therefore, whichever way I look at this game, I can’t help but envision an under 2.5 goals affair. Besiktas are better than Fenerbahce, and this type of game suits them more. Fenerbahce look far better at beating lesser teams than they used to but their tactics don’t tend to work in big games. I would not read much into their defeat against Genclerbirligi last time out either. I don’t think Fenerbahce played well, per se, but they were robbed in that game with the visitors scoring a blatantly offside winner which VAR somehow decided not to give. And don’t get me started on the Aziz own goal either – there was no fucking danger whatsoever when he headed that into his own goal.

Fenerbahce are still one of Turkey’s best teams, especially when it comes to being defensively organised, and making the most of what possession they have. They play a good pressing game, especially when Ozil is out, and they know how to irk teams. I daresay a flutter on the home win may tempt a few but I’m not one of them. I think Besiktas are more likely, but Fenerbahce are no mugs themselves, and they’ll be hurting after their last defeat. Let’s give them the respect that they deserve here.

2014 was the last time Fenerbahce beat Besiktas away in the Super Lig; that’s the size of the task that awaits them today. I firmly believe that they’ve got to do it if they intend on going for the title though. They’re not going to be able to win this match by gunning for their hosts from the stat, though. They’ve got to see out the first twenty minutes, not do anything stupid with relation to cards or goals, and then see if they can nick a goal along the way. That’s almost certainly the approach that they’ll take here as any other approach will see them lose. Whoever does score (if anyone), I really don’t see them pushing for more either.

With the above in mind, I believe that backing under 2.5 goals at evens simply makes sense here.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.

FC Midtjylland vs Vejle

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

Unsurprisingly, Vejle have found it hard to score goals in 2021. Since they ‘discovered’ Dwamena’s heart problem – and ultimately released him from his contract – they’ve not looked sharp enough in the final third. Sometimes it was the Ghanaian that scored, but often it was his movement and speed that led to chances for others too, directly or indirectly. How many goals did Sousa score from the spot earlier this season because of something Dwamena instigated? They miss him, basically, and I am not surprised by that because he was far too good for the Superligaen when he joined the newly-promoted club. 

It doesn’t help that the Vejle pitch is a mess either, mind you. A lot of Danish teams don’t have an issue with playing more directly but it’s not Vejle’s cup of tea at all. They like to get the ball down, play a fast game, and hurt teams with their movement and skill. The industry is still at Vejle, but let’s just say that when it comes to the final third, they’ve been ‘found out’ by other Superligaen clubs. Considering that Vejle’s sole approach to football matches is to outscore teams, fully accepting that they’ll concede at some stage, their predictability in the final third is causing problems.

It’s a shame things have gone as they have, though. Just as they sorted out their centre-back pairing by replacing Milosevic with Kolinger, then their attack falls apart. I mean, you just can’t make this stuff up, can you? Their Balkan creators need to reinvent themselves in 2021 in order for Vejle to be more effective, and that’s simply not happened. Apart from emerging talent Faghir up front, Vejle simply look too predictable, and if it were not for Iran’s Ezatolahi running the show from in front of the back four, they’d have lost far more games than they have lately. Again, the industry is there, the possession is there, and the desire is there – but the effectiveness is nowhere to be seen at either end.

With the above in mind, taking on title hopefuls FC Midtjylland away from home looks problematic for them. They have made an impression when taking on Brondby and FC Copenhagen away from home in 2021 but have still gone on to lose. I’ve not really got anything but defeat in mind for them today either. True enough, I’m not exactly sold on the reigning champions at the moment either; for once the form guide tells the truth there. They’re not playing badly, per se, but their control of games lately has been seriously poor – and I don’t know why it’s changed so much from earlier in the season.

I appreciate that they’ve got some absentees but they’ve never had as much depth as they do now, FC Midtjylland, so I’m struggling to accept that’s the reason now. Cajuste has been one of their best players this season, sat in front of the back four, but there isn’t as much composure around him as there normally would be, which is really strange. FC Midtjylland end up giving too many opportunities away by playing in such a manner, to be frank. I suspect they’ll do the same again today too. Luckily for them, Vejle aren’t good at converting them right now.

The beautiful side of FC Midtjylland is that they’re laden with individual match-winners. Sisto, Evander, Dreyer, Mabil – not many midfields in Denmark can press like they can, nor constantly have opponents on the back foot like they can. Their quality is so good that even an average target man like Kaba has thrived this season, as will his new understudy Abubakar. They’re a very complex side to deal with, FC Midtjylland, because of their flexibility. They can hurt teams from any situation, and they’re never easy to play against. It’s only a lack of control of matches that has hurt them in this calendar year; other than that, they’re in a great place right now.

FC Midtjylland need to win this game in order to keep Brondby in their sights ahead of the Superligaen league split, which takes place after this round of fixtures. Vejle have found themselves closer to the drop zone than they’d like to be, given how much they invested in new players pre-season, so I think they need to have a go here. After all, Lyngby are very experienced at beating the drop, and have really turned it on in 2021. I think we’re set for an interesting game on the Danish mainland today, but it’s one that I expect FC Midtjylland to win by a couple of goals, whether they play as well as they’re capable of or not.

Verdict: FC Midtjylland to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.

Randers vs FC Copenhagen

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

Although utterly shambolic at the back, FC Copenhagen remain one of Denmark’s better teams more by default than anything else. Their defence looks old, slow, and simply incapable of performing to a good standard at Superligaen level any longer – but their attack is the best it’s been for a while, even without Wilczek today.

Even players that aren’t all that good – like Falk – are contributing a lot. Falk is a good example because he’s committed, he’s fast, and never seems to run out of legs. As far as finishing goes, look elsewhere, but this is the kind of player you need in a title-challenging squad, and he’s done well this season despite his limitations. Wonderkid Daramy has naturally contributed on occasions, and chances are never going to be hard to come by with Zeca and Biel on the pitch, nor Lerager, for that matter, who has just joined. 

The stars of the show at the capital club are Fischer and Wind though, the latter of which is rumoured to be on his way to the Bundesliga for next season, which would not be at all surprising. Fischer has already had his opportunities abroad but injuries have pretty much ended such from occurring again. In Denmark, those two are amongst the best attackers, and with good players a-plenty around them, scoring goals really isn’t very difficult for Thorup’s boys, whether they play well or not. Defending, though – they’re so bad at it that I bet Solbakken is still cringing somewhere, even though he’s no longer at the helm!

Luckily for the Zealand club, they’re only facing Randers today. As ever, Randers are not short of industry, but what they are short of is quality, which is more unusual. They usually manage to lasso a couple of good, forgotten players into helping them performing above their best but that’s really not happened this season. Bearing them is naturally still very annoying to do, but the right firepower should be able to manage such – and FC Copenhagen have that in abundance.

Helpfully, Randers find themselves without ex-Manchester United academy graduate Kehinde in the middle of the park, and left-back Lauridsen, all of which are regulars. It goes without saying that Randers do not have much by way of depth so those absentees are incredibly problematic for the home team. Essentially, unless Hammershoy-Mistrati does it all by himself today, the chances of Randers scoring are slender, even against this joke of an FC Copenhagen defence. Well, that’s assuming Kamara doesn’t play. Kamara is a doubt for this game, although the noises from the Randers camp makes them appear optimistic that he’ll feature in this game, and that’d at least give them a chance here.

Sambou up front simply hasn’t cut the mustard this season, Mileusnic is not fit enough or consistent enough for this level, and although Egho is a decent target man, he needs support, of which there is little at Randers – well, quality support, at least. What I tend to find with this team is that too many passes are overhit or under-hit, and that lack of precision really undermines their entire approach because they sweat blood and tears to see the ball more often, and then generally squander it. It’s got to be very frustrating for their fans.

I’m not really in any doubt over Randers working harder than FC Copenhagen today; I think that’s a given, and has been for a few seasons now. However, FC Copenhagen look too good for them in front of goal, and that would especially be true if Kamara was to sit this one out for the hosts. Either way, I can’t see how they’ll retaliate when this almost certainly becomes an open game. Therefore, I’m on the away win. 

Verdict: FC Copenhagen to win at 19/20.

SC Freiburg vs Augsburg 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Much like Mainz 05, Augsburg have entered ‘survival mode’ a lot earlier than usual this season. It’s unlikely they’ll be suckered into the relegation battle in this campaign but past experience has taught them to be certain. When they focus, Augsburg are a remarkably professional and flexible team, both capable of attacking fluidly and defending as one. Without having any real stars, they’re a remarkably effective unit – and they should be today too.

I don’t like opposing Freiburg at home but they’ve gone off the boil lately, only scoring in one out of their last five matches, which was against the most out of sorts Bayer 04 Leverkusen you’re ever likely to see. On their day, Streich’s men are more than capable of beating most Bundesliga teams at home but they look resigned to accepting a season of mediocrity. They’re not going to get relegated, after all, but they have bizarrely seemed to give up on a UEFA Europa League place. If only they’d taken those chances they created in abundance at the start of the season, huh? They had enough of them but simply didn’t convert. Now they’re in a position where they’re not scoring again too. It’s just not been their year really, and that’s despite playing some very good football.

I actually think that this is the best Freiburg squad I’ve seen for quite some years now. Yes, Petersen hasn’t been at his best up front, and Demirovic hasn’t settled yet, but they’ve got some real quality in this team, particularly in midfield. Grifo has been a phenomenon this season, playing more like Candreva than anybody else right now. I’d be seriously surprised if nobody signed him in the summer, and not just because he’s added goals to his game either, but because he’s become a brilliant playmaker. I know they tend to play him on the left wing but for me, he’s best off behind the forwards.

With him, Sallai, Schmid, and Woo-yeong, even Til’s relative absence has slipped by unnoticed, especially as the midfield is now balanced out better with Santamaria parked in front of the back four. It’s a really solid setup, even if a bit lightweight in defence. They’re comfortable on the ball, work hard, and have enough runners to always keep opponents on the back foot. A lack of clinical finishing this season has hurt them too much though, and now they look less interested than usual. They’re still a hard team to beat, Freiburg, but it’s a good time to play them.

Augsburg are one of the Bundesliga’s anomalies as they don’t seem to mind their strikers not scoring goals. Finnbogason’s injuries have ruined his career; he contributes nothing anymore. Niederlechner contributes a great deal up front but goals aren’t one of them. The general concept at Augsburg is that a good midfield will negate the requirement for strikers to score goals, and it’s worked quite well for them actually, especially now they’ve got Hahn drifting between the lines. Considering that this team has missed the ‘Finnish Messi’ (Jensen) a lot this season, they’ve still been very effective at hurting teams. Again, Hahn has played a big role in that but the eternally classy Caligiuri has been magnificent too, and Vargas has added yet more hype to his reputation with some divine early season displays.

You just can’t beat Richter though, not in my book. I love this guy! It doesn’t matter where you play him (although they tend to play him as an inside forward on the right); he just loves to be on the pitch. He works hard for ninety minutes, never tires, and is remarkably adept at beating players with either speed or quick thinking, and he’s quite fast too. I suppose you could loosely call him a poor man’s Thomas Muller. He’s such an important player to this squad, though – there’s nobody like him in it. Now they’ve added Benes too, and sat either lunatic Gruezo or Khedira in front of the defence, Augsburg look very good at using their midfielders in the final third – that’s where their goals from.

Despite not being a good defensive team, Augsburg are good at shutting up shop and frustrating teams because everybody fights in Herrlich’s squad. They all want to win at all times, and I love to see it. I may be able to fault their individual defending or their lack of goals from forwards but this team is a remarkably impressive unit, and especially so at this stage of the season. They’re really hard to beat, Augsburg, and they never seem to tire. This is not the kind of team that Freiburg want to face right now. They’re right to be favourites, but this is a really hard fixture at the moment.

For me, it makes sense to back Augsburg to get something from the encounter. 

Verdict: Augsburg to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 91/100.

Olympique Lyonnais vs Paris Saint-Germain

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I watched the reversal of this fixture as Lyon completely bossed PSG from start to finish, and I don’t believe we’ll see anything different tonight. I was disappointed to see that Neymar is missing out though, because PSG are so much lazier and easier to anticipate when he plays. Without him, they actually have the capacity to put out a lively front three that are prepared to make runs in behind and try some link-up play rather than showboating. Christ, they even have counterattacks from time to time – how about that?!

I feel sorry for Pochettino, you know? A good young manager like that, after doing such a sterling job at Tottenham Hotspur, should have taken over at a progressive club, not these overpaid mercenaries that generally don’t give a shit. Honestly, PSG is a graveyard for footballers nowadays. Once upon a time, Neymar, Verratti etc. were some of the most exciting talents around. When I watch them nowadays, they’re just embarrassing with the way they dive and the way they mouth off constantly. The saddest part is that it’s beginning to rub off on Mbappe, and probably Kean too in due course. They’ve actually got a phenomenal academy too, PSG – and they ruin those players too. Why do you think that Nkunku, Ikone, Diaby, Kouassi, Weah etc. have been so keen to leave this club? It’s honestly rotten to the core, and they know they’ll stagnate and become lazier if they stay.

I won’t deny that PSG play some bloody lovely stuff sometimes, but to do that 10% of the time with a squad like this is embarrassing. What can Pochettino bring to this team that Ancelotti, Emery, Blanc etc. didn’t? Nothing. Everybody that takes this job is doomed to fail unless the manager is put in charge of transfers, given three years to implement changes, and bad influences are shipped out of the club. Until then, they’ll forever be a disappointing team, PSG, even if they win 10-0 tonight. They’re killing players, PSG, and stifling French football in the process, which is why I’m rooting for anyone but them in the Ligue 1 title race this season. The sooner this project ceases, the better.

PSG simply do not play football with any life. They look far more interested at home than away anyway, but the amount of sideways passing, gutless attacking, pointless link-up play, complaining, and unnecessary showboating is a joke. I genuinely don’t believe that they have the bottle for this game anymore. The talent is there, and they are better than Lyon; the bookies are not wrong to price PSG as favourites from that perspective. I don’t even remember the last time PSG actually played well away from home though, and I would be surprised if that changed tonight.

I still maintain that this is the best Lyon team I’ve seen in a decade, thanks to the joint efforts of Juninho and Garcia behind the scenes, bringing in players with good attitudes, and pushing problematic individuals out of the door – barring Aouar, who will presumably leave soon enough anyway. I mean, Paqueta has shown him up this season with his pressing and link-up play, and even youngster Caqueret has too. The occasional flash of genius isn’t enough, I’m afraid. That’s why Fekir was shoved out of the door, and the sooner Aouar follows him, the better.

When I speak about players with the right attitudes, I speak about players like Cornet. He was brought through as a French winger, and he was good at it. However, that wasn’t working, so instead of sulking, he adjusted. He decided to play for Ivory Coast instead of France to prove himself, and he has now successfully reinvented himself as a wing-back – and a bloody good one too. That’s what Lyon have been missing all these years, and now that they’ve got it – plus a manager that recognises and rewards it – Lyon look tonnes better for it. When they won in Paris earlier in the season, it was no smash-and-grab job. No, they had the ball for a lot of the time, never looked rattled, and always held PSG at arm’s length in that game. They were so comfortable it was unbelievable. Why not again tonight?

I have doubts about Lyon when they’re missing first-team players because they’re still in transition, meaning they need more depth containing the right players before I can trust them implicitly. Fortunately for us, they’re not missing anybody tonight. They’ve still got their live wires in attack, including Depay, who is only getting better with age, especially now those around him look mature and determined. They’ve got two brilliant sitting midfielders in Mendes and Guimaraes, leaving everybody else free to do what they’re supposed to, and have a really good defensive setup too. I’ve genuinely not trusted Lyon as much for ten years as I do now because everything they’re doing, on and off the pitch, is 100% correct. A team like this should not struggle to outsmart and outscore PSG tonight.

At 11/10, I’m happy to back Lyon with draw no bet here.

Verdict: Olympique Lyonnais to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Sporting Braga vs SL Benfica 

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I think it’s reasonable to state that there’s always a threat of goals in a game like this. Braga and Benfica are two very good attacking teams in Portugal, after all. Benfica are obviously the better team but the gap between the two teams is less now than it’s ever been. I still regard the visitors as the better outfit, for what it’s worth, but times in Portugal are now different than they used to be.

I mean, how Sporting are top of the table this season, I just don’t know. I still maintain it’s not a very good side but they got momentum early in the season, worked hard on their mental strength, and it’s gone from there. Now I see the UK press linking clubs to Pedro Goncalves and Nuno Mendes as if they’re the next biggest things in Portuguese football, and it makes me laugh. They might go on to do well, don’t get me wrong, but I think you have to appreciate that this really has been a fluke season for Sporting. I’m sure they won’t care as they’ve not won the league in twenty years or something but this is no a team that will be fighting for the title next season, I promise you – and I doubt that they’ll have unearthed any wonderkids along the way.

If anything, I think FC Porto and SL Benfica need to take a long, hard look at themselves as to why they’ve not been able to mount a better title challenge than they have. Both have dropped far too many silly points this season, particularly the latter, who now find themselves in fourth place behind Sporting Braga, the team that fourth spot is usually reserved for. It’s bad enough for Benfica to finish behind their crosstown rivals, a team who have diminished so much that Benfica fans now consider their only real rivalry as being with FC Porto, but to finish behind Braga and Porto would be beyond embarrassing for the Lisbon heavyweights.

I think that possible reality has set in though, because Benfica have been really good recently. They did well in Europe, booked their spot in the Taca de Portugal final, and have comfortably dispatched Rio Ave, Belenenses, and Boavista lately. However, I would add that Benfica seem far more comfortable in playing against teams that are afraid to attack them, and that was certainly the case for both Boavista and Belenenses. With Rio Ave, it was simply a lack of final third quality that made the Benfica win comprehensive. Tonight Benfica have to beat a team that is not only comfortable on the ball, but a team that creates chances and score goals very easily. It’s a big test for Jorge Jesus and co.

As ever, Benfica still don’t convince at the back. Only Benfica would opt to play a high defensive line with two slow centre-backs! Still, at least they’ve got two players that won’t lose many aerial duels. Their full-backs are only good at attacking, and their midfielders are largely the same too. They always create chances, Benfica, but scoring them depends on the individuals. The fact that Seferovic is their leading goal-scorer tells you why they’re having such a strange season. I love the guy’s energy, belief, and strength, but he is not a good finisher. Still, he loves it at Benfica, and the fans love him, so the Swiss international tends to do a good job for them – but by no means is it a pragmatic, long-term solution. It’s enough to do some damage against defensively poor Braga though.

I remember watching Braga face Sporting away from home earlier this season, and they sure as hell caused them problems in that game. I thought that the eventual scoreline was very harsh on them, all things considered. They played boldly, created chances, and on another day would have scored a couple of goals. Despite losing striker Paulinho to Sporting earlier in 2021, Braga have remained a dangerous attacking team though. Everything about them in the final third is strong, at least from a collective perspective. They’ve got a good manager in Carvajal, who gets the most out of these players, and they play some lovely, easy on the eye football. With or without a designated poacher, they still find the net, although it must be remarked that Slovenian striker Sporar has settled well since being loaned from Sporting, and he’d love to immortalise himself with his parent club’s fans by rubbing salt in the Benfica wounds tonight!

The crowning achievement for Carvajal has to be that he’s managed to remind Medeiros and Piazon how to be good attackers, although he’s not quite wizard-esque enough to keep Medeiros fit. Piazon has been really good lately, and with Horta, Galeno, Fransergio, Castro, and Novais making things happen, it’s not hard to see why Braga score goals easily enough. Even Gaitan is kept out of this squad because of how good it is without him! It would be most like the Argentinian to turn up against his old club tonight though, wouldn’t it? Braga only know how to attack, though – that’s the point here. Their defending is comical a lot of the time, and Benfica should be able to exploit it. 

I can’t pick a winner here, folks. It’s the business end of the season; Benfica have some very obvious weaknesses but need to win, and Braga can’t defend and also could do with winning. A draw doesn’t do much for either of them, especially not with Pacos de Ferreira rapidly catching up, so I expect an open game here. Therefore, backing over 3 goals at 127/100 makes sense to me.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 127/100.