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Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners

KO: (UK time)

Perhaps it’s time that the Mariners were finally brought back down to earth, huh? They did alright against Perth Glory but always playing on the back foot is starting to take its toll. Teams are breaking them down better than before, making it harder for the Mariners to effectively contribute to fixtures. I think it’s about time they reinvented themselves because they’ve had to perform above and beyond so far this season in order to be at the top of the ladder, but that level is impossible to maintain for an average team.

Don’t get me wrong – I really do think that the Mariners have been a beautiful success story in Australia this season. Stajcic has really connected his squad up well, getting the best out of everybody as a result, whether it’s the emerging talents, the veterans, or the forgotten stars of the past that have gone back to Gosford to rekindle their respective careers. Everybody is suddenly on the same page at the Mariners, something which has not been seen for many moons there, and it’s a delight to see.

They’ve had some luck this season, it’s true, but they’ve also earned that luck by wanting it more than most. They work hard for one another, take their chances, and do everything possible to stop teams scoring against them. They’re a very flexible and industrious team with tremendous physical attributes, and one that should not be taken lightly. I’d go as far as to say that, at the present time, any opponent not prepared to work hard against them will lose.

In the past, that team would have definitely been Melbourne City. They’re usually a rather cavalier, shoulder-shrugging kind of team. I wouldn’t necessarily state that that’s how they started this season, but let’s say that they started it nervously, making too many errors (e.g. goalkeeper flapping at crosses, defenders being caught in possession, midfielders not turning on the ball). However, credit must be given where it’s due – they’ve come on leaps and bounds recently, delivering some really intelligent, well-prepared displays.

City having good players is nothing new; that’s only to be expected with the backing that they have. However, City actually playing like they have good players on some kind of consistent basis is remarkably rare, so Kisnorbo deserves a lot of credit for that. I’ll reserve judgement on their title challenge until I see them doing it at the business end of the season but for now, they’re probably the best team in the competition, and I am expecting that to show today.

City have won four consecutive games ahead of this one, winning some really tough games along the way. Sydney walked into all of their traps, and Victory were both awful and missing lots of players, so I was actually more impressed by their wins against Western Sydney Wanderers and Macarthur FC, both of which were seriously professionally done. They restricted their opponents marvellously in those games, and took their chances well whilst also executing excellent game control. The law of averages denotes that this run of theirs cannot last forever but at the moment, there’s really no reason to doubt this team.

City get Luna back today, which is yet another boost for them. They’re not missing any important players now, and everybody is playing well for them, especially MacLaren and Metcalfe. Unlike the Mariners, City are actually good enough on paper to be a title contender too, so when they start playing well, it’s time to take them seriously. They played pretty well against the Mariners earlier in the season too, but gave away a cheap goal before half-time, meaning that City’s lead was just 2-1. After the break, they were nervous, gave a penalty away, had a kid (Stokes) sent off, and fell apart. City still had the Mariners on toast for that first thirty to forty minutes though, and they’re a lot better prepared to deal with mishaps now than they were before.

I just think that City are going to be too good for the Mariners today. I know Simon and Urena have struck up a brilliant partnership for the visitors, and their speed in wide positions is really dangerous, but City look capable of dealing with it. Mariners playing without the ball against a City team that are better with it should really mean that there’s a touch of inevitability about this fixture at this moment in time. The Mariners won’t make it easy for them, I’m sure, but I just don’t have a good reason to doubt City winning this game in a somewhat comfortable fashion.

Verdict: Melbourne City to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/4.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Melbourne City – Luna returns.
Central Coast Mariners – Stensness is absent. 

German Bundesliga 2:

Fortuna Dusseldorf Klaus and Morales return. Iyoha, Siebert, Ofori, and Appelkamp are absent.
VfL Bochum – No news.

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Hapoel Hadera – Gozlan is absent. Levi is a doubt. Lababidi returns.
Hapoel Haifa –  Zamir, Ghanem, Maman, Sardal, and Sirostein are absent. Agada returns.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Australian A-League:

Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 2-0

German Bundesliga 2:

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs VfL Bochum (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game

Israeli Ligat Ha’al:

Hapoel Hadera vs Hapoel Haifa (5) 2-1

Portuguese Liga 2:

Penafiel vs Casa Pia (6) 2-0
Feirense vs Academico Viseu (6) 2-1

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