At some stage, I will stop backing teams to beat Melbourne Victory, I’m sure. However, as the tip clearly indicates, today is not that day. Indeed, the only thing that makes me doubt the Kiwis today is that they’ve been on the receiving end of more unfair refereeing calls than any other A-League team this season. I don’t know if there’s anything in that or not, but it’s true, and the inexplicable decision to not award them a penalty against Brisbane Roar last time out was merely the cherry on the cake. I don’t think that they can blame the officials for not winning, not after dominating without scoring more than a solitary goal, but it is beginning to rankle their fans, enough so for them to rant about officials and VAR as if it’s the same thing, seemingly unsure of who to blame.
Phoenix have adapted to life as an eastern Australian team rather well of late. They’ve brought out a new kit, reminiscent of the colours of Wollongong Wolves (a local team to where they’re playing their home games this season), and have been encouraged by the local Israeli and Mexican populace turning up to support Davila and Hemed respectively. More importantly, they’ve had luck of late. Perhaps not with officiating, but now the little things they were trying before that failed are now working out regularly, and Phoenix have actually played consistently well for a few weeks now.
I’m not surprised by that, though – I’m just surprised that it took as long as it did for them to finally get some points on the board because I really can’t think of a bad shift they’ve put in this season. I remember watching their half “B” team, half “A” team combination scare the shit out of a far superior Western Sydney Wanderers and really admiring the spirit that Talay established last season, and has only built upon this season. The togetherness is strong there, the quality is impressive, they’re fast, and not they’re scoring goals too. What’s not to like?
Well, there’s one thing you should dislike, and that’s their defence. Last season, it was cast iron with DeVere and Taylor at the heart of it. Then Taylor left to play in India, which wasn’t the end of the world as Laws joined to replace him. However, Laws is known for having injury issues so there was always this bated breath about whether he’d last more than a couple of weeks, you know? Rather ironically, he’s been ok fitness-wise; it’s DeVere that suffered a bad one, and Phoenix have found themselves barely keeping clean sheets because of it. On the rare occasion that they have, it’s because goalkeepers Marinovic and/or Sail have made it so, not because they prevented the chances early enough in the manoeuvre. Anyway, Phoenix have typically reacted brilliantly, re-signing Taylor, and he’s now breezed through quarantine, and can play today. Integration period required? Not at all. Subsequently, Phoenix should only get better from here onwards, especially now Hemed has made it clear that he does indeed want to be their designated goal-scorer.
Coping with Phoenix’s energy is one thing, and dealing with their tactics is another. They’re fit, fast, and press hard. They defend better than the statistics suggest, and they’re as annoying as hell. A team like Victory should not be able to deal with that right now, to be honest – or ever again, seemingly. Victory haven’t been a good tactical team for ages, and they’re arguably at their lowest ebb now than they have been in ages. Fan protests, boatloads of injuries, the board under pressure to resign, and a squad that simply doesn’t function as a unit. It’s sad to see, really. I remember loving watching them when it was Thompson and Berisha in attack. They were dynamic, exciting, and free-scoring. They played with a real passion. Now? They look afraid to have the ball most of the time, or at least clueless as to what to do with it.
Victory are one of the few Aussie teams that opt to play without a playmaker, for starters. Why that is, I don’t know. Rojas is the closest they’ve got to one, and he’s been injured for a lot of this season. With all due respect to a player that’s been sensational in most years he’s played in the A-League, it’s perhaps not the worst thing that he’s injured right now because he’s not had a good game this season anyway. Still, without him, Victory lack anybody that can thread a pass. That’s a bit of an issue when you consider that their only routes to goal are to either; A. play a fast wide game to get crosses in for big Gestede, or B. give the ball to McManaman – and pray. Without the right balls to wide players, Victory’s wide player don’t hurt teams ‘cause Kambsoba’s decision-making is crap, Kruse spends more time trying to con officials into giving free-kicks, and McManaman – although unquestionably gifted – can seldom last beyond the 65-70 minute mark. He’s usually fed up of his teammates well before then though.
I’m sure you’d all agree that the above is an issue. Now consider that Gestede, the only man they’ve got that can win balls in the air, is out – again. I like Latanzio, and I like Folami, but they’re very similar players i.e. they like to drift into channels and to do the unexpected. That tends to work best with a designated front man, which they don’t have when Gestede is out. Think it’s bad when they don’t feed Gestede well when he is on the pitch? Try watching them when he’s not – ouch! So, yeah – no real goal threats other than long range punts (Brimmer has done quite well on that front this season, especially from free-kicks), and fast breaks (not much opportunity for such against a very lively and savvy Phoenix defence). I’m sure you can see why I doubt Victory here.
Of course, that’s just me disagreeing with the overall setup and general short-sightedness without anything else being covered. In essence, their game-plan is destined to fail more often than it is to succeed. Now consider that they’re still without some really important players. As you may have guessed from the above, Gestede is one of those out – and there’s no replacement for him. At the heart of defence, key defender Shotton is still out, and they look lost without him because Ansell needs to be alongside someone that tells him what to do. With another centre-back – Ryan – still out, it’s been Broxham that has got the nod at centre-back ahead of youngster Anderson, and Broxham is a midfielder – but the dynamic at least works between them, even if the actual defending doesn’t. However, Broxham is now suspended, courtesy of yet another yellow card last time out. Subsequently, this defence is, yet again, in utter disarray. Roux is an attacking full-back; he doesn’t defend well anymore, and truth be told, he’s not even that good at attacking, which is why Victory fans have been going ballistic on social media at Perth Glory picking up ex-Victory right-back Geria on a free.
The cherry on the cake is that Victory still don’t know who their number one is. It was supposed to be Crocombe but the fans have gone so mad at him that Brebner has been forced to field Acton instead. Crocombe is the better goalkeeper but looks jittery, which is understandable with no fixed defence in front of him all season long, and that’s led to him making errors. Acton is no better though, and yet the pressure from Victory fans has led to him being in goal instead. It’s a disastrous situation from front to back at this club, and demoralised is their resting state as a result. You know what the only positive is for Victory right now? It’s that their derby with Sydney FC at weekend was rained off because they’d been crucified in that game – and that’s a big game for Victory!
Phoenix are playing more than well enough to destroy Victory today, and I don’t doubt that they will in terms of performance. I still have reservations about them taking their chances often enough but that’s my only real concern pertaining to this tip. Victory’s depressive state of affairs and absent players should afford Phoenix enough chances to run riot here, and at 6/5, the -1 Asian Handicap appeals to me greatly.
