We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.
Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.
Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.
Banker
England vs San Marino
KO: (UK time)
England will obviously win this game. By how many goals is the real question. I wanted to hit England to win by 6 or more but the odds just aren’t worth the risk. England are more capable of it than they used to be because Southgate has them playing with more energy. I guess I just fear England rotating a lot for this one, having a slow start, and only winning by 6 as opposed to the double digits their starting eleven should be able to propel them to. It’s up to you folks as to how hard you hit this one, but England will win, and they should do so by six or more. If you’re lucky enough to get good odds for such in-play, I would take them.
Verdict: England to win at 1/100.
Banker
Germany vs Iceland
KO: (UK time)
It’s nice to see Lagerback in charge of Iceland again, isn’t it? Well, call it ‘technical director’ or whatever you like; he’s there to steer and shepherd accordingly. They’re so much better as one, Lagerback and Iceland; without each other, they’ve both struggled. I still think that some of Iceland’s problems are even beyond him, but in due course he’ll have Iceland back to their best. I don’t really expect that to result in anything against Germany away, at least not in a World Cup Qualifier, but it may be enough to make the match more interesting than it should be. I expect a home win here, but no handicaps at this stage.
Verdict: Germany to win at 3/25.
Banker
Spain vs Greece
KO: (UK time)
Spain still don’t convince me with their actual penetration, and Greece can be a very frustrating team to break down nowadays. However, Spain have enough fearless, direct youngsters to turn games of this nature in their favour, and once they go in front, I’d expect them to hold it, especially with Greece’s penchant for rash decision-making. It’s a home win for me.
Verdict: Spain to win at 7/50.
Banker
Sweden vs Georgia
KO: (UK time)
I really like the current Georgia setup. They’re fast, as tenacious as ever, and more attack-minded. Against lesser teams, I really do fancy them. However, the better teams they come up against now manage to hold them at arm’s length fairly well as their only viable route to goal is via their target men. Georgia end up committing lots of men forward, which makes it very easy to sit back and counter them. I remember watching Denmark do it effortlessly in Georgia, and Sweden should not be any different tonight. With a number of regulars out, including Qaizashvili, I expect Georgia to lose this one.
Verdict: Sweden to win at 11/50.
Featured game
Israel vs Denmark
KO: (UK time)
I wouldn’t have took this on twelve months ago. Israel were very good back then for arguably their first time in about five years or so. In typical Israeli fashion though, they decided not to renew the manager’s contract when it expired, expecting another Austrian to do the job just as well, presumably based solely upon them having the same nationality, which hasn’t worked at all. Israel now look back to what they were any moons ago; poor at keeping teams out, poor at hurting teams, and incredibly over-reliant on Zahavi.
Don’t get me wrong now; if Zahavi is in the mood, then Denmark will have to be very careful here. He really is a class act on his day, and should have had a better career than he’s had – and would have with a better attitude and work-rate. Other than that though, Israel are lacking in quality nowadays. Their better players have disappeared, or are disappearing. One Tal Ben-Haim should have retired years ago, and the other Tal Ben-Haim is struggling to make ends meet in Tel-Aviv. Kayal is now playing for Bnei Sakhnin, and Hemed for Wellington Phoenix – not exactly ideal for Israel. Rafaelov is never fit, or not interested. Natcho is still brilliant, of course, but is pretty old now. Saba should be the natural shoe-in but it never seems to happen for him. To put it bluntly, their numbers are dwindling so the reliance on Zahavi is colossal. The general hope is that Solomon will be able to carry them for years to come but I don’t know about that. He really has improved since moving to Ukraine but is he as good as those before him? Only time will tell, I guess.
For the game against Denmark, they’re without goalkeeper Harush, defenders Tawatha and Yeini, classy Saba, and even promising youngster Elmkies. They’ve had to name a few youngsters in this squad, one of which is uncapped forward Abada from Maccabi Petah Tikva. I was a bit surprised by that because, although he’s not scored as many as he’d have liked this season, I think that Shua has performed well enough to be in the squad. He’s looked intelligent at least, and you need that against a good, well-organised Danish team. Instead, Weissmann and Abada are ahead of him, neither of which have scored at this level, the former in eleven attempts. No, as per usual, it’ll be down to Zahavi, and a little bit of Bitton – and that’s not enough against Denmark. They lack defence quality and structure, penetration, and composure in the final third other than the PSV Eindhoven man so I smell danger for the hosts here.
Denmark are obviously the better team, and I also think that this is the best Danish team I’ve seen for a while, at least in terms of collective output. They look good all over the pitch, and have even managed to lasso Eriksen into playing for them in this game, which is the cherry on the cake really. They’re at taking the lead, good at holding leads, and very good at being flexible enough to counter opposing threats mid-game. Again, they’re a very complete team right now, Denmark. They may have had better names in the past but as a collective, I like this Danish team the most since the Laudrup days.
It’s hard to explain why Denmark are as good as they are though because on paper they’re decent but not special. The way I would surmise it is to say that they have a number of players that are performing to a very high standard right now, both at club and country level. Kjaer, Hojbjerg, Wind, Wass, Schone, Poulsen, Schmeichel, and Maehle come to mind but there’s more. They look very convincing, Denmark, and are mentally assured too. I just don’t see why they’d struggle to dissect a labouring Israeli team, home or away.
For me, the -1 Asian Handicap is a risk worth taking at 27/20.
Verdict: Denmark to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 27/20.
Additional games
Kenya vs Egypt
KO: (UK time)
Out of all the North African teams, Egypt tend to struggle the least when dealing with more athletic opposition. I’ve lost count of how many times Morocco, Libya, Algeria, and Tunisia have struggled to deal with faster teams, despite having some seriously technically gifted footballers, particularly Algeria. The reality is that a lot of them don’t want to run a lot, and don’t want to be chasing shadows. Egypt seldom lack that work-rate though.
True enough, I’ve been disappointed with their World Cup contributions over the years because for such a savvy, streetwise, and industrious team, they’ve been remarkably naive – and it’s cost them. Egypt seldom struggles to produce good players so quality is rarely an issue; it’s all about tactics. Tactically speaking, they’re very good – but only in Africa, it seems. Smarter teams cause them no end of issues. Luckily for them, Kenya – along with many African teams – are not capable of outsmarting them.
In terms of where Egypt are at quality-wise, they’ve unearthed a new talent in striker Mohamed, now on Galatasaray’s books. You all know Elneny, Salah, Hegazi, and Trezeguet by now, and I’d like to think that you remember Sobhi (although he disappointingly fled back to Egypt despite a promising career in England looming for him) and Kouka too. They’re certainly not short of match-winners, The Pharaohs, and I’d like to think that they’d prove it today. Kenya are a team that they can control, and should really manage to outscore.
I seldom back away wins in Africa nowadays because it’s really hard to call them. There are lots of home advantages on this continent that are seriously hard to prepare for, whether it’s travel time, pitch condition, diplomatic tensions etc. It generally takes a lot of composure or a lot of luck to win away from home on this continent – but Egypt have that composure. Whether they have the luck or not remains to be seen, but I think they’re good enough to do what’s necessary in typically efficient fashion today, hence the tip. Kenya won’t make it easy for them but generally struggle to actually use the ball properly nowadays so this tip’s success hinges squarely upon how much Egypt want it and prepare for it, really, particularly with star midfielder Wanyama not in the squad.
Verdict: Egypt to win at 91/100.
France U21 vs Denmark U21
KO: (UK time)
On paper, I understand the odds drift here. In Football Manager terms, this game would result in a comprehensive French win – I get it. Some of these players are far, far too good for this level, especially Konate, Lafont, Kamara, and Ikone.
However, every single time I watch France U21 play, I’m not convinced. Mentally, they’re arguably the weakest team in this competition. As individuals, they’re very impressive but as a collective, they’ve not impressed me once in the qualifiers. Even when they do win, it always feels more than fortunate that they’ve managed it. I never thought that Switzerland looked uncomfortable against them, for example, and that’s despite a whole host of Ligue 1 regulars appearing in the France U21 squad.
I don’t even know what the solution is because this is not an uncommon situation for France at any level. The talent is always there. Again, on paper, I don’t think any European nation can hold a candle to them for strength in depth at any level. Actually making them work hard for one another though, and anticipate one another’s play – it almost never happens. If it does, then they can win this tournament; no questions asked. It never does though; someone always loses focus, and then suddenly the rest aren’t interested either. I don’t expect anything different from this squad either.
They’re up against a good, organised Danish team tonight. Experienced Nelsson will be at the heart of defence with Alves, Roerslev, and Poulsen as options too. Nartey has had a good campaign in midfield, and having experienced heads like Hjulmand and Lindstrom are big boosts for the Danes. Their attack looks really dangerous too. I know Bruun Larsen hasn’t been himself for a while but this level is beneath him so he should shine. Dreyer has been superb this season, as has Daramy, and both Isaksen and Faghir have good potential.
Most of all, I like the healthy dynamic in the Danish squad. They work hard for one another, they know how to attack and defend as one, and they’ve got some very good players to boot. I can’t deny that the bookies are right to make France favourites to win this match, and they really should – but I just don’t see it happening with such mental frailty in their squad, at least not against such a resolute and capable Danish team. The Scandinavians are tough cookies to overcome nowadays, and France seem to struggle with most challenges nowadays.
Therefore, I’m boldly backing the underdogs to avoid defeat tonight with a smidge of insurance, just in case France do happen to show up!
Verdict: Denmark U21 to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 19/20.
Portugal U21 vs Croatia U21
KO: (UK time)
Although both of these countries are better known for producing attacking players than defensive (although they’ve both their fair share of quality players in every position in the past), I’m expecting both of them to be rather defensive and cautious in this tournament because that’s where they both excel nowadays.
The trouble with that approach is that Croatia have been hit by a number of late withdrawals from their squad because of injury. It was initially hoped that they’d be able to contain most U21 teams but then they lost Sutalo from Atalanta Bergamo. Hope returned when Sosa and Bradaric were demoted to play at U21 level, who are both too good for this level – but then folk remembered that Sosa actually carries a two match ban into this competition. Then it was realised that wonderkid Gvardiol was going to miss the first match or two because of injury, which recently resulted in him not being in the squad at all.
Of late, they’ve now lost Sucic, Babec, and now Sosa on a more permanent basis too. Their defence may be alright with Krizmanic, Vuskovic, Erlic etc. but it’s by no means optimal – and this is a tough group, and a tough game to have such complications. Keeping in mind Croatia’s lack of a natural finisher, it’s going to be a tough tournament for Croatia to impress in. Kulenovic leads a line well enough but he’s not clinical, and the rest of their options are more drifters and false nines than goal-scorers. I like their midfield; it’s creative enough, although lacking in depth. Many players in this squad outside of defence simply haven’t played enough though, so it’s hard to be optimistic about the team’s chances.
When it comes to Portugal though, we have a big team in the making. Portugal have developed into a big tournament team over the years anyway, no matter what level – they simply have a winning mentality. I’d argue that they’ve had better U21 crops than this, but I still expect discipline, organisation, and efficiency. Most of this squad, rather unusually, has been playing first-team football in Portugal, which is excellent. The sole exception would perhaps be Fabio Vieira at FC Porto, who has been playing for the “B” team instead, but that’s normal under Conceicao.
Goncalves has had a great season at Sporting, Braganca is a terrific talent, and Tomas has impressed this season too. The only problematic area for Portugal U21 is left-back, where they lack a natural option, so it’s expected that they’ll mirror the low line utilised by Santos, boss of the senior team. I just see too many players in this squad that should be playing at a higher level though – that’s the reality here. Fernandes, Luis, Mota, for example, and then you’ve got Trincao, Leao, and Vitinha too? It’s too much for most teams at this level.
Again, I’ve seen better Portugal U21 teams than this but it’s still very good, and facing a team that has serious issues. I doubt it’ll be easy, and i doubt it’ll be entertaining, but a Portugal win at 4/5 looks likely to me.
Verdict: Portugal U21 to win at 4/5.
Team news
Note
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
World Cup Qualifiers:
Italy – Cristante, Bastoni, Sensi, Barella, and Kean are absent.
Remaining thoughts
Note
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
World Cup Qualifiers – Asia: Tajikistan vs Mongolia (6) 2-0
World Cup Qualifiers – Europe: Bulgaria vs Switzerland (6) 0-1 Israel vs Denmark (6) 0-2 Spain vs Greece (7) 1-0 Sweden vs Georgia (7) over 2.5 goals Italy vs Northern Ireland (5) 0-0 Moldova vs Faroe Islands (5) 1-2 Scotland vs Austria (6) 0-1 Andorra vs Albania (5) 0-0 England vs San Marino (10) over 4.5 goals Hungary vs Poland (5) 1-0 Germany vs Iceland (7) 2-0 Liechtenstein vs Armenia (6) 0-2 Romania vs North Macedonia (5) 1-0
African Nations Qualifiers: Comoros vs Togo (4) 0-0 South Africa vs Ghana (4) 0-1 Kenya vs Egypt (5) 0-1 Gabon vs Congo DR (5) 2-2 Gambia vs Angola (5) 1-0 Botswana vs Zimbabwe (6) 0-0 Zambia vs Algeria (5) 2-1 Libya vs Tunisia (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game Equatorial Guinea vs Tanzania (6) 2-1
International Friendlies: Japan vs South Korea (5) 1-1 India vs Oman (6) 0-0 USA vs Jamaica (4) 1-1 Saudi Arabia vs Kuwait (6) 2-1
European U21 Championship Finals: England vs Switzerland (5) 1-1 Russia vs Iceland (6) over 2.5 goals France vs Denmark (4) 1-2 Portugal vs Croatia (6) 1-0
