TFT Issue 3384!

Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets 

KO: 10:20 (UK time)

Although a win continues to evade Glory, their displays lately have improved. They’ve stopped conceding quite so many stupid goals, for example, and they’ve been breaking teams down better. The thing is that there aren’t many more straightforward games than beating the Jets at home right now, and that’s the opportunity that Glory have today. I don’t think they’ll pass up on it.

Target man D’Agostino is out but that’s it really, excluding long-term absentee Ikonomidis, although I think that both will be back in the next week or so. It’s time for Keogh to step forward and be the target man we all know he can be. His lack of goals this season have affected his finishing but he’s still a dangerous player to deal with, the Irishman, as he’s fast, tall, and industrious. With him alongside the ridiculously classy Fornaroli, who is in scintillating form once more, I’d like to think that Glory would be able to win today.

It naturally helps that Castro is there to make things happen, and they’ve done some work behind the scenes lately to restore their wide threat by signing Jason Geria on a free, who is an attack-minded right-back with tremendous athleticism. His end product was always quite average but they signed him to be a link-up man and a decoy, not to necessarily deliver good crosses, so I think he’ll be a good addition. They’ve lacked in that position since they let Franjic leave. Indeed, you could argue that full-back/wing-backs have been their most problematic areas ever since both Franjic and Davidson moved on. Garcia plays a different formation now but they still need more width – and Geria will help.

With good movement from central midfielders, and outstanding attackers ahead of them, Glory should not struggle today. Against a full-strength Jets side, I might feel differently – but that’s not the case today. No, Glory have the luxury of facing a Jets side that is without key centre-back Boogaard, as well as his fellow defensive regular Koutroumbis, who has suffered one of his typical bad injuries and will sit out most of the next two months. The Jets fans have actually been criticising Boogaard and Topor-Stanley recently, claiming that they need to ‘move on as they’re past it’. I think they’ll get an eye opening experience today as to what their defence looks like without one of them – and not in a good way.

The bigger questions at the Jets don’t really seem to be asked by their fans. I’ve often found their defence to be their most solid area over the past few years, you know? It’s their attack that has always confused me. I mean, over-relying on Dimi Petratos at one stage?! Yeah, good luck with that – he only plays well when it suits him. Vargas was brilliant but always injured. They simply haven’t had a natural creator. Now they’ve got Kosovo’s Krasniqi, who is a very skilful player, but he’s not really had time to settle in so they’re still short. After he does settle, the next battle is to find someone to score goals because O’Donovan is only good as a target man – and he’s rapidly becoming less effective at that as the season progresses.

Yuel is a threat, but teams are aware of it now, and subsequently deal with him better. We’re yet to see the best of Millar since his return to the A-League, although he’s a very capable wide threat, whether deployed as a winger or full-back. Thurgate is a good drifter between lines, and I like Ugarkovic as more of a deep-lying playmaker. The foundation for the Jets’ future team is certainly in place, and they’re in far healthier state than Melbourne Victory, for example. However, this is not the finished article; far from it. They’re starting to look a bit ropey now, as you’d expect from a club with criminal pre-season preparation, and the fact that they technically ceased to exist for a short period until they were bought by someone else didn’t help either. 

To put it bluntly, this is a pretty average Jets team. They’ve had good and bad moments this season, but in general do not have what it takes to be a good A-League team. Missing half of their defence for a long trip west to face one of the best attacking teams in the country is not something that bodes well for them, especially not with so many individual errors leading to goals conceded of late. Therefore, I’m backing Glory to break their malaise with a win at 23/20.

Verdict: Perth Glory to win at 23/20.

Benin vs Nigeria 

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

African Nations Qualifiers don’t tend to be high-scoring, hence the generous odds available in games like this one. What I tend to find is that the pitches are awkward to play on, particularly in the south, and that there’s a distinct lack of composure in the final third. Therefore, in order for a game in a competition like this to be high-scoring – or at least, relatively high-scoring – both teams need to be top-heavy and attack minded, which is the case here.

It goes without saying that Nigeria are better than Benin. I seldom back away wins in such competitions though, and Egypt failing to hold onto their lead in Kenya yesterday perfectly surmises why that is. There isn’t a team on this continent that is too good for the rest, basically. I think you’d do well to find a bigger footballing nation in Africa than Nigeria, nor one with a more prestigious past. Even so, a trip to face plucky Benin is a tough one because, much like Nigeria, Benin have a good attack.

Gestede may be injured, and I’ve no idea about the situation with Sessegnon, who has been without a club for a while now, but Benin still have good attacking options. They cannot adequately replace Sessegnon if he is omitted from this squad, which means that Nigeria should win the game, but their attack should not be underestimated, especially not now they’ve convinced Aguemon and Soukou to represent Benin. They join rapid Mounie and experienced Pote in attack, and that means Benin can score against any team in Africa.

The good news for my pick is that Benin are utterly clueless at the back. A clean sheet simply isn’t a realistic goal for them at any time, no matter whether they’re facing Nigeria, Eswatini, or Sao Tome e Principe. I’ll be amazed if they are able to keep Nigeria out today, basically. I do think that Benin can trouble their more illustrious opponents though, especially with such a capable attack at their disposal.

The fact that the visitors can enter this game without the services of Onuachu, Moses, Onyekuru, Dennis, and Ejuke without any being a real problem tells you just how good they are. I actually think that this is one of the best Nigerian teams I’ve seen since the 90’s. I do think that they’re lacking an Obi Mikel replacement in midfield to keep things ticking along at the right tempo, but the quality they have in the final third is staggering. Besides, Ndidi is warming to the role more with time, which is good.

Nigeria not only have good forwards but also really good wide threats. Iwobi, Simon, Chukwueze, and Kalu are excellent support options for the more orthodox forwards, Etebo is a decent creator, and striker Iheanacho is in superb form right now. It’s interesting to see Osimhen back in the fold after so long on the sidelines at SSC Napoli, and I’m not sure what role Musa really plays nowadays as he’s only ever been fast; there’s no end product. Still, Rohr has options, and this team seldom fails to score goals because of it. 

Nigeria’s defence is alright at best. They won’t lose many one-on-one physical battles but tactical defending is not their forte, and they still don’t really have a solid shot stopper to call upon. I guess that’s the law of averages coming into playing, given how many golden years they had when Enyeama was between the sticks. Nigeria are far from impregnable at the back though, which should give Benin hope today. Nigeria’s attack should be too strong for this game to be anything but an away win though.

For me, it makes sense to back over 2 goals at 19/20, as that’s the minimum amount of goals I expect in this encounter. 

Verdict: Over 2 goals at 9/10.

Hungary U21 vs Romania U21

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

The first thing to keep in mind here is that this is a huge derby. There aren’t many nations in Europe that hate one another quite as much as Hungary and Romania, and the fact that they’re now meeting on a competitive stage makes me think that it’ll be a miracle if this one ends with twenty-two players on the pitch.

As far as quality goes, I think Hungary are out of their depth, even against Romania, who lost Costache pre-tournament because of Covid-19 – and it was him that secured their qualification for this tournament. The fact that they called up Petre as a replacement tells you that Romania have some depth though, the same for which cannot be said of Hungary. 

Hungary are missing some seriously important players for this competition, you see. I know they’re one of the two host countries, but it’s not looking likely that it’ll matter, based on how easily Germany contained them in the opener. The pressure was all on Germany for that match and yet at no stage did they look nervous or out of control. They dictated the tempo, they created almost all of the chances, and they eventually ran out 3-0 winners – and it’s not even that good of a Germany team. 

They’ve known for a while that Szoboszlai was off the cards, Hungary – he’s been injured ever since moving to RB Leipzig. To then lose captain Demjen, for example, or returning hero Dardai, was also horrendous. Then there’s Zsori, Schon, and Szantho too – it’s just too much. Hungary cannot cope with such absentees, not in a tournament. Romania may be easier to face than Germany, and there may be more motivation here, but this is no longer a Hungary team I can take seriously, especially as they’re led by Gera, who was a phenomenal playmaker but is a very inexperienced manager, leading a group of rookies. Aside from Balogh, Bolla, Kiss, and Bukta, it’s hard to see any real problems for Romania to deal with here.

Romania have something of a novice manager themselves but the difference is that they’ve not had boatloads of withdrawals pre-tournament, and that makes their squad a lot more experienced. I also think it’s important to note that Romania are a big tournament team; I often find them to be far more effective on a big stage than in qualifying rounds. When they get to a major tournament, they’re used to being underdogs, which leads to them working exceptionally hard both in terms of pressing and in terms of tactical preparation for opposing threats. I remember them turning up against the odds in the last U21 tournament too, producing some simply brilliant displays in a real group of death. Why should that be unattainable now?

True enough, there’s no Hagi or Puscas this time around but there are good players like Pascanu, Boboc, Olaru, Oaida, Matan, and Marin, for example, or even Ciobanu. Petre should be on the list too really. As a unit, Romania are very good; extremely hard to break down. They work harder than most teams, they prepare for teams better than most, and their desire to prove themselves is humongous, especially in derbies. I can see them being really up for today’s game in Budapest.

In terms of individual quality, no, it’s not a great Romanian crop. It’s simply a very effective group, as they amply demonstrated against Netherlands last time out. They refuse to give teams an inch, and each positive result they get only spurs them on. I may not think that any of their current crop will go on to be a great player, but I do respect the power of their group. Besides, if they intend on progressing, winning here is paramount as they – like every team in this group – are likely to lose against Germany. 

With the above in mind, backing Romania to win today is something I can’t really avoid.

Verdict: Romania U21 to win at 4/5.

Slovenia U21 vs Czechia U21

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Slovenia are one of the two hosts of this tournament but I don’t see it being an enjoyable one for them. I know they’ve beaten some reasonable teams in qualifiers but I’ve seldom felt like they’re capable of controlling games, Slovenia, and that’s a problem when the big balls come calling.

Last time out, they were drubbed by Spain. Spain are generally ruthless in this competition, at least over the past decade or so, but this isn’t an especially good Spanish crop. There are some gems in there but it’s mostly quite standard, you know? I’ve seen numerous teams trouble Spain a lot more than they used to be able to, especially when it comes to scoring goals against them. Despite being at home, there were no signs of Slovenia doing the same last time out as Spain commanded the game from start to finish, running out 3-0 winners. 

The brutal reality is that this level is beyond Slovenia. Yes, they’ve got some good goalkeepers coming through and a few experienced heads but there’s just not enough quality here. Other than Rogelj in defence and Petrovic in midfield – both of which play professionally in Austria – I don’t see anything that other teams in this group should worry about. Home advantage or not, Slovenia are out of their depth – and the worst part is that they look it too.

The Czechs won’t be upset with a draw against Italy last time out but they didn’t play particularly well, and that was even true when Italy were reduced to ten men, and even against nine men later on. I never felt that burning sense of adventure from Czechia, like they believed they could win it, and that’s despite Italy doing their level best to invite them into the game. Maybe it was opening day nerves; I don’t know. However, what I do know is that if they intend on progressing from this group then winning today is paramount as they’re likely to lose against Spain, just like everybody else, so I expect renewed focus from Czechia here.

Helpfully, the ‘away’ team have a very experienced squad at this tournament; one of the most experienced in the whole competition actually. They’ve opted to bring players that are competing more regularly rather than those that have greater reputations or greater potentials, for example. Their defence looks solid enough with Chalus, Plechaty, Granecny, and Holik in the equation, especially if Krejci is sat in front of them – although he really needs to stop jumping with his arms flailing or more red cards await him. 

They’ve got a very experienced head in Sassinka in attack, as well as Drchal, who still has a lot of potential. They’ve been smart enough to draft in Sadilek (too good for this level) and Havelka too, the latter of which is at a very underrated Ceske Budejovice; one of the Liga 1’s success stories of this season. They’ve also got wonderkid Karabec from Sparta Prague in the squad, who I’d like to see make a splash, although it’s sad to see that Hlozek isn’t in town. This is a solid enough setup though, and with the proviso that they play with more adventure in this game, I can’t see them failing to win this game. 

For me, a Czechia win looks likely enough.

Verdict: Czechia U21 to win at 4/5.

Czechia vs Belgium

KO: 19:45 (UK time)

I daresay there’ll be plenty of folk taking Czechia seriously after their demolition job in Estonia last time out, but I am not one of them. Despite knowing it was a very below average Estonian team, I expect Czechia to struggle because of the diminishing number of squad players available to them – and they did for far longer than they should have. They enjoyed a good forty-five minutes or so but switched off way too easily in that game, particularly Celustka at the back. Therefore, despite the outcome looking impressive, I think it painted a far rosier picture of the Czechia squad than it should have.

The reality is that Czechia are missing a lot of players right now, and more head to the sidelines each day, the latest of which is Kudela. He joins Kopic, Dockal, Kral, Brabec, Novak, Koubek, and Kalas on the sidelines, which is a lot, both from a defensive perspective and an attacking support perspective. It’s not just injuries and Covid-19 that are affecting the Czechia team right now, but also the brewing racial situation too, following on from Slavia Prague’s altercation with Rangers in the UEFA Europa League. To put it bluntly, I really don’t think that this is a good time for Czechia, and it’ll take more than beating Estonia to convince me otherwise.

For what it’s worth, I actually rate Czechia fairly highly. No, it’s not like the old times when they had Cech or Nedved or Poborsky or Koller or Rosicky etc. However, they have a good squad, at least from the midfield onwards, and a good young nucleus coming through. They’ll be even better when Hlozek enters the equation too, who is finally back for Sparta Prague after a long time out. For now, it’s a case of relying on attacking full-backs like Kaderabek and Coufal, or capable midfielders like Darida, Jankto, and Barak. Their strikers are a bit too predictable for my liking, especially with Schick having gone off the boil, but this is a good, hard-working team. They press well, they move the ball fast, and if you’re not prepared to match them stride for stride, you’ll struggle. 

At international level, I’m not a big fan of Belgium boss Martinez, but does seem to have figured his team out now. They’re finding ways to win games on a regular basis, they’re not fazed by falling behind anymore, and they’re simply deadly in front of goal, particularly with Lukaku having the season he is in Italy with Internazionale. I do fear for them in future because that defence is ageing rapidly and there’s no sign of younger replacements coming through. You could even make the same argument for their midfield, although they do at least have options there. For now though, this is a very experienced and settled Belgian team, which I like.

The only noteworthy absentees from this squad are Witsel and Eden Hazard, both of which are injured. The core of the team is very much intact. They’ve got really solid centre-backs that are good in the air, good attacking right-backs, but are still searching for a solution at left-back that works at both ends of the pitch. Tielemans is in terrific form, de Bruyne is world-class, and now they’ve even called up RSC Anderlecht wonderkid Verschaeren after his long-awaited return from injury, meaning Belgium are not short of creators. .

As far as more direct threats go, there’s Mertens, Chadli, Januzaj, Ferreira-Carrasco, and even youngsters Doku and Club Brugge wonderkid de Ketelaere. Batshuayi and Benteke are not great places mentally right now so the onus is very much on Lukaku to score the goals but he’s only too happy to oblige. I’m pleased to see Trossard in the equation again though; such a clever, creative drifter. All in all, Belgium can bag two goals even if they’re not playing well. Against a seriously under-strength Czechia side, home or away, I expect them to have some fun here.

For me, backing Belgium to beat the -1 Asian Handicap simply makes sense here.  

Verdict: Belgium to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 23/20.

Spain U21 vs Italy U21

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I’m not blown away by this Spanish squad, really. Some of theirs from the past were truly, truly remarkable, completely laden with players that would have walked into the senior team of most other nations. There are few in this squad that could claim the same.

However, in a tournament with lots of teams that are missing players, or have arrived with limited squads, Spain are one of the strongest. It’s not their individuals that do it; it’s their collective style that makes them a nightmare to deal with. I won’t deny that Puig, Cucurella, Barrenetxea, and especially Diaz all have their respective match-winning moments, but it’s very much a team game for Spain. Everything they do reflects the effort they put into training with regard to anticipating one another’s runs and comfort on the ball. As a unit, Spain really are uncomfortable to deal with.

Again, this is not a particularly good Spanish team. I’ve seen teams get at them far more over the past few years than I had in the preceding ten. It’s not as hard to score against them as it once was, basically. However, the way they attack teams, the intricate passing they utilise, the intelligent movement, and the composure in front of goal tends to ensure that the semi-finals are the bare minimum you’ll see them reach – and this squad should not be an exception to the rule. They’re just too effective, and they know how to make their strengths far more prevalent than their weaknesses.

Italy don’t seem to know how to do that though. Again, I’m not blown away by Italy either, which is sad because they had the best U21 crop I’d seen from them a few years ago so I assumed (wrongly) that more would follow too. This is a very plain team, in all honesty. Barring the superb playmaker Tonali and striker Cutrone, I don’t see any standout players for the Italians this time around. The bad news for them today is that they are without Tonali, who is suspended for his red card against Czechia, as is Marchizza. Spain is not a team to face without your best player either.

In my opinion, a team that arrives in this tournament needs to either be brilliant individually, brilliant tactically, or brilliant collectively – and Italy are none of them. They’re not as bad as France U21; don’t get me wrong there! It’s just not a team that worries me, or should worry any opponents at this level. Against Czechia, they had more of the ball, even when playing with less men on the pitch, but still offered little by way of penetration, and looked more likely to do something stupid to cost them despite controlling things. 

Therefore, I’m struggling to accept that Italy can really do anything to stop Spain here. It’s not a great Spanish team, as I said above, but they look far more settled and effective than Italy do. Italy were always able to trouble Spain in the past, even if they lost games, but this group does little for me, particularly without Tonali. Therefore, I’m on the Spanish win.

Verdict: Spain U21 to win at 22/25.

Wales vs Mexico

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I understand that English people are supposed to have something of a rivalry with the Welsh but it’s not something I’ve really experienced, to be honest. Maybe if I were more into Rugby it’d be different – but I’m not. I am English, of course, but I’m always pleased to see any of the home nations do well – even the Republic of Ireland, although they’re not a home nation! That’s why I have no problem in admitting that I am genuinely excited by the emerging talent that Wales have right now.

The big names for Wales over the past decade or so were always Bale, Allen, Ramsey, Ledley, and even Ashley Williams for a little while! Williams has since retired, Ledley isn’t really in the equation now, Allen isn’t as good as he was, and both Ramsey and Bale are notorious for injury problems, which makes them inconsistent despite their obvious talent, although Bale does tend to turn it on for his country more often than not. Instead of simply fading into nothingness though, Wales have focused heavily on youngster integration – and it’s going to pay huge dividends for them in the years to come.

At one point, they’re going to have the following players mature; Brooks, James, Woodburn, Wilson, Matondo, Levitt, Ampadu, and Nico Williams. How can you not be excited by that? Wales will have natural dribblers on both sides, good set piece takers, excellent controllers, good organisation, and good finishers. There’ll be more experienced heads to help out too, of course, but what a nucleus that has the potential to be! 

The problem for the present is that it is just potential, and some of them are struggling to find a level they’re comfortable playing at. Subsequently, Wales’ form has been patchy at best, and their displays are seldom convincing. With the ongoing saga surrounding boss Giggs keeping him out of the equation, and injuries meaning that Ramsey, Davies, Brooks, and Woodburn cannot feature in this friendly, I’m struggling to understand why the bookies think they’ve got a genuine chance against Mexico. I mean, Robson-Kanu? An utterly bereft of confidence Matondo? An unfit, erratic Hennessey? This is not going to concern Mexico. It’ll be a great learning curve for the youngsters that are in this squad but I’m struggling to accept that Wales might win this one.

I mean, Mexico are almost at full-strength here. Alright, they might rotate a little ahead of the Costa Rica game but this is a seriously experienced, confident, and capable squad that Wales are up against. Mexico keep the ball extremely well nowadays, they tend to use it very well, and even breaking them down has gotten harder since Herrera was in charge. They have issues of their own with Guardado struggling for fitness nowadays and Moreno still without a club. They also find themselves without Layun, Antuna, and Jimenez, the latter of which leaves them without a designated goal-getter now Hernandez has rightly fallen out of favour. 

I still think that this is a side that is far stronger than Wales though. I mean, with Pizarro, Herrera, dos Santos etc. pulling the strings, and options like Lainez and Guardado out wide, not to mention classy Corona, Pulido should not find it hard to lead the line here. They’re experienced in every area of the pitch, Mexico, and are also a very consistent team nowadays. Friendly or not, I really do expect them to teach Wales a lesson here, and at 9/10, it’s worth the risk.

Verdict: Mexico to win at 9/10.