TFT Issue 3385!

Adelaide United vs Sydney FC

KO: 08:10 (UK time)

Adelaide are big underdogs here, which is an interesting call from the bookies. I get it – Sydney are the experienced side with more match-winners whereas The Reds are something of a ‘new kids on the block’ effect. Sydney have only just got back from the long trip to face a very mobile Perth Glory though, and now they’re taking on arguably the most energetic, fast team in the competition – with the oldest, slowest squad in the competition. If Sydney rattle three in before half-time then that’s not going to matter, but I’m not so sure that they will as they’ve been making too many individual errors this season, whether it’s been the right ball in the final third, or goalkeeper Redmayne giving chances/goals away.

Adelaide are still without some heavy-hitters themselves too, of course – another reason it makes sense to list Sydney as favourites. Goalkeeper Delianov has impressed this season, for example, but he’s out with a hamstring injury. Mohamed Toure has a hamstring injury at the moment, and big Tomi Juric has an injury too, meaning they don’t really have a striker, Adelaide – or so I thought until Yengi came into the squad from nowhere, and delivered two outstanding displays. Suddenly Adelaide have a solution to a problem, and they’re good at that. I daresay they’ve got the best kids in the A-League right now.

I also saw some news earlier this week that interested me as Adelaide have re-signed Spanish midfielder Juande. His role is not a glamorous one, but it’s one that they’ve desperately lacked something in since…well, he left. He sits in front of the back four, lends composure to all of those around him, and seldom gives the ball away. A young Adelaide team needs that kind of player around – and now they have him. The reports from the Adelaide camp suggest that he can and will be used today too, which would make sense. It’s not like he’s new to this level!

With a proper sitting midfielder, a growing-in-stature back four, and a ruthless attack that not only scores goals but also presses hard and high, Adelaide are beginning to look the team I said they would at the start of the campaign. They needed a couple of experienced heads and a bit of luck in order to showcase it, but now they look capable of outscoring any team at this level on their day. I think they can beat Sydney today too, for what’s it worth. Their speed is going to be too much for Sydney if utilised properly, and Adelaide are very confident at the moment because of their run of wins. That run will naturally end at some point, but I’ve no reason to believe it’ll be against the reigning champions today.

Sydney do have some top-drawer players, not to mention the best playmakers in the country – all four of them. Ninkovic just gets better with age, and I don’t think there’s anyone on the pitch that Brattan can’t find at the drop of a hat. Getting Bobo back and in the squad has given them a much needed reference point up front, not to mention a proven goal-scorer, and they welcome back Barbarouses today too, the rapid Kiwi having just celebrated the birth of his second child. There are positives for them here, for sure.

However, I thought they struggled in Perth, which was surprising as it was a good time to face them. The journey is long, and teams at this level generally don’t react well to playing every three days anyway, let alone the only team in the competition that has consistently struggled in every match from the seventy minute mark onward because of a lack of fitness. Bringing in Wood has helped them at least have some kind of outlet, whether via long balls over the top or via his high pressing, but this is still a team that is generally hemmed in by more athletic teams as the game draws to a conclusion.

Bearing in mind that goalkeeper Redmayne keeps making mistakes for Sydney, and that their defence does find it hard to deal with pace, goal-scoring is more important to them than ever – and they’re not doing that enough either. They’re so used to controlling games and holding teams at arm’s length that scoring two or three goals hasn’t really been necessary for them for a while now – and it shows. They’re not getting a tremendous amount wrong, Sydney – don’t get me wrong. They’re just not doing enough right, and as I’ve said for a while now, I just don’t see Corica as being a good enough manager to make them a truly feared A-League champion again. For my money, that job should have gone to Rudan.

The big problem Sydney have right now is creating enough clear-cut opportunities though. They don’t really have proper wingers, and the one they do have – Barbarbouses – is made to play further inside because they use their full-backs as rudimentary wingers. King has warmed to that role really well this season, which is handy as Zullo is injured – again. Grant is a natural at doing it too. Sydney rely on those wide players too much though. Without them, any team that can hold their shape and track runners well enough will generally not concede more than one goal against Sydney. Where that problem escalates is that Grant is suspended for this game, and his replacement – van der Saag – is nowhere near ready for this level. He gets way too many things wrong – and he’s up against Adelaide’s star attacker Goodwin today. Ouch! That’s going to cripple Sydney at both ends, in my opinion, as it’s his overlapping runs that unsettle opposing defences.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Grant got that fifth booking of the season against Glory, either. It came ten minutes from time when Glory were beginning to tire so there was no real reason for it. Of course, Sydney’s next match after this is against Melbourne Victory in the “Big Blue”, and Grant is not going to want to miss that – so he misses the trip to the city of churches instead. Funny how stuff works out sometimes, isn’t it? Anyway – this is a pretty predictable Sydney team, and Grant is one of their more unpredictable elements, so I think they’ll miss him a lot here. Adelaide are far from perfect, especially when defending set pieces, but they’re the exact kind of team that The Sky Blues tend to struggle against, and have done on plenty of occasions over the years, even when Arnold was in charge.

Therefore, I’m going to take a chance on the underdogs today at very generous odds.

Verdict: Adelaide United to win with draw no bet at 137/100.

Armenia vs Iceland 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

The return of Lagerback to the Icelandic setup didn’t help them in a one-sided result in Germany, continuing Iceland’s run of defeats. They’ve had a lot of bad luck over the past few years with players’ injuries etc. and that’s not slowing down.

To put it simply, Iceland are a lot more vulnerable than they used to. I still think that they’re a good team, and that they work bloody hard, but they lack effectiveness at both ends. Their goal-scoring threat has largely dissipated, for example, because both Sigthorsson and Finnbogason suffered bad and/or continuous injuries, and have never come back as the same players. Both are actually fit right now, but only Sigthorsson is in the squad, which tells a story all by itself. They’re also without Sigurdarson and Kjartansson in attack too, meaning it’s all down to overrated Gudmundsson to cause problems in attack. Fridjonsson and Bodvarson are alright but it’s Sigthorsson and Gudmundsson that have to score the goals, and neither of them are especially good at it. Luckily for them, they’re up against one of the worst defences in European international football, so I’m not too worried about them there.

Some of the old guard – Sigurdsson and Hallfredsson – are in the equation right now, as well as highly-rated FC Midtjylland youngster Anderson, and IFK Norrkoping wonderkid Johannesson. With Bjarnason, Sigurjonsson, and Traustason in the setup though, Iceland will create chances – and even Gunnarsson’s long throws will be dangerous! They’ve got a lot of experience in this squad so little rattles them, and they’re a good threat from set pieces too. Their goalkeeping situation is a bit dire, and their defence is lacking in a leader, but it’s a good enough squad to have a legitimate hope of winning in Armenia tonight. I don’t see them managing it without conceding though.

As bad as Armenia’s defending is, their attacking is superb. Mkhitaryan’s absence isn’t ideal but don’t suffer from the illusion that he carries this team; he doesn’t. Yes, he’s their best player, but what makes Armenia hard to deal with is their outstanding link-up play in the final third. The little ‘give and go’ football they unleash on a regular basis makes them really hard to deal with. Most of their final third players are fast and good dribblers so they tend to get into good positions really easily, and create some good chances too.

Admittedly, Armenia do lack a good finisher, and have ever since Movsisyan decided not to be a good striker anymore. Adamyan is the best they’ve got nowadays, and although he’s not particularly clinical, he’ll do for a game against a leaky Icelandic defence. Despite his advanced years, Karapettyan has been finding the net too. Ghazaryan and Barseghyan will provide the most support from midfield but they’ve also got some really talented kids coming through that will play a big part in the years to come. Furthermore, Armenia have been busy calling up half-Armenian players from around the globe to increase their options and have had some success with Briasco in attack and Wbeymar in midfield, although the latter is not in this squad.

Armenia are basically unpredictable on the ball, which makes them hard to deal with, and these new, relatively unknown players coming in makes them even harder to anticipate. I think they can cause Iceland problems tonight, and I’d like to think that’d lead to them scoring. Whether they get anything from the game or not though, I really wouldn’t want to say because their defence is genuinely on a par with San Marino’s at times. Backing both teams to score at 9/10 looks a risk worth taking to me though.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 9/10.

Croatia U21 vs Switzerland U21

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

I figured Switzerland would get something against predictable England last time out, but I was a bit surprised to see them win. They had a great qualifying campaign but this was always going to be a step up for the talented group. I’ll reserve judgement as to how far they can go until they’ve faced a top team, which England simply aren’t under Boothroyd, even if the names in their squad would have you believe otherwise. I think they can beat Croatia tonight though.

The pressure is all on Croatia, who lost a hard-fought game against Portugal last time out. That means Croatia need to not only try and win this match as it’s purported to be the more winnable of their two remaining fixtures, but also because they need the points. Given that Croatia’s squad is only really good at defending nowadays, that’s not ideal for them – and keep in mind how many defenders they lost through injury pre-tournament too. Their midfield is capable but there’s no depth there, and their forwards are not natural goal-scorers so, yeah – not a great Croatian team.

Tactically, Croatia are quite good, but that’s where it ends. If you break them down, you should be able to them – and Switzerland can do that. Gvardiol, Sosa, and Sutalo all being out is just too much for this team, especially when it comes to right-back. They’ve got tidy central midfielders and decent target men but not much more than that, and as I said above, playing on the front foot is not their favourite thing to do. Unless they scrape an early goal from somewhere, this game is going to be very, very complicated for the Balkan team.

I’m not so big a fan of the overrated Okafor, although I recognise his uses at an U21 tournament. However, I’m a huge fun of wing-back Lotomba, who is far too good for this level, and midfielder Toma, who is amazing vision and weight of pass. N’Doye is proving to be a good goal-scorer, and he’s got fierce competition from Zeqiri and Stojikovic, the latter of which has had a breakout season at Aarau. Zeqiri’s move to England was a bold one; I don’t think he’s Premier League material. Perhaps a Championship or Bundesliga 2 player in years to come, but he’s still a fine weapon for this level.

They’ve got some quality, Switzerland, and a good level of organisation. Zesiger, van der Werff, and Bamert are really solid centre-backs for this level, and the balance of this squad is very impressive because of it. Much like Denmark, I think Switzerland could be dark horses in this tournament, largely because the top teams have mostly named under-strength squads. Of course, it’s hard to say for certain, given that the next round won’t be played for months, but they’re a team to respect, that’s for sure.

I think that this one will be a tight, dogged affair, but it’s one that the pressure is on Croatia to win. They’re going to have to push out more than they’d like to, and that should give the Swiss enough chances on the break to take the lead. As long as they play this one as intelligently as usual, Switzerland should win it.

Verdict: Switzerland U21 to win at 13/10. 

San Marino vs Hungary

KO: 19:45 (UK time)

Unlike England, I doubt Hungary will take their foot off the pedal tonight. They’ve only got Andorra coming up in a few days’ time so there’s really no need to rest players, and this game represents and opportunity to build up their goal difference – with all due respect to San Marino.

In the first-half of their game against England, San Marino were ripped apart, and were it not for woeful finishing from Calvert Lewin and especially Lingard, England would have been in double figures by half-time. After the break, substitutions were made ahead of the trip to Albania, and England barely fashioned more than a couple of chances in the rest of the game with embarrassing sideways passing, and not one single player having had the balls to take on their opponents. I was really left scratching my head as to how Trippier got into that squad ahead of Wan-Bissaka and Alexander-Arnold, that’s for sure. San Marino’s goalkeeper Benedettini made a few really good saves but it was backs to the wall for them, as is always the case when a team actually gets at them. San Marino can cope with teams that don’t try to dribble their players – but I doubt they’ll have that luxury here.

Aside from a bunch of part-timers now being asked to play in their second match in four days, they’ve now got to deal with a more resolute, attack-minded Hungarian team. Hungary may not have as big names as England, and I know that they’re without Szoboszlai here, but this is still a very good attacking team, as was amply demonstrated in their goal-scoring bonanza against Poland earlier this week. No, I don’t trust their defending too much, but against San Marino, I’d be surprised if that actually became a factor.

Instead, what I’m focusing on is the return of big striker Szalai to the squad, who will score more often than not when representing his country – with the right service. In Sallai, Holender, and the two Vargas, Hungary have enough players to cause San Marino nightmares by committing them, and making things happen. Hungary look well-equipped to threaten from set pieces, and they’ve got a more orthodox poacher in Nikolic if required too. In short, I’d be surprised if Hungary didn’t win this game convincingly; everything suggests that they’re both confident and good enough to do so right now, and San Marino looked really tired after their game against England.

Therefore, I’m on Hungary to beat the -3.5 Asian Handicap at 26/25.

Verdict: Hungary to beat the -3.5 Asian Handicap at 26/25.

Portugal U21 vs England U21

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

How the hell are England slight favourites to win this game? Seriously? Just like France, England never show up at U21 level, which is largely because they’ve got a dinosaur in charge by the name of Boothroyd, who should have been removed from his role at least two years ago by my count. He must have some friends in very high places, that’s all I can say!

I’m English, and I’d love to see this group of youngsters properly unleashed because on paper, they’re excellent. Seriously. It’s just this horrendous sideways, walking pace style that Boothroyd has them playing makes them horribly susceptible to every good team on the continent because they don’t have enough playmakers to make something happen from nowhere, largely because Foden is playing for the senior team, and because they’re not good enough defensively to consistently contain teams. 

To me, it would make far more sense for England to play with energy and forward passes. They’d concede more, but can you imagine the sheer terror they’d instill in opposing defences via Hudson-Odoi, Greenwood, Smith Rowe, Eze, Nketiah, and McNeil? I should really include Aarons and Ryan Sessegnon in that, who both love to cannon forward. Despite all of this athletic superiority though, and a tremendous amount of stamina, Boothroyd insists on making this team play as if they were Italy in the 90’s, which they’re nowhere near capable of doing. It stifles them, making it seriously easy for opponents to stop them, and England will usually concede at least once against good teams – and that’s what they’re up against today too.

Following their defeat against Switzerland, it’s fair to say that England now need to win. The problem they’re going to have with that – other than the above – is that Portugal like to defend, and they’re very good at it. Furthermore, Portugal already have three points on the board; a win is not paramount for them here. Indeed, you could make a persuasive argument to say that Portugal would like a draw here because they’d fancy their chances of beating Switzerland in the final group stage game, which would then seal their progress to the knockout stage. 

Me, though? I think Portugal will go for it here – well, as much as a defence-orientated team can. There’s no reason to fear England. A simple press, crisp passing, and clinical finishing is all it takes to beat them, and Portugal have all of those things in abundance. They’ve got some brilliant wide players, great midfield controllers, and a seriously impressive Leao up front, who is finally beginning to show at AC Milan what he showed at Lille OSC two years ago. They’re so tidy and efficient, Portugal, that I can’t see how England are going to break them down, let alone beat them.

I actually think Portugal will win this competition. They don’t play attractive football, but they’re a big tournament team nowadays, meaning they’re mentally strong. Tactically, they’re outstanding, and their patience/composure tends to mean that they’ve got enough about them to hurt teams at the right times. They never seem to feel pressure, and they always play games their own way. Just like Germany, I don’t trust them in the build-up to big tournaments – but I do trust them to turn it on when they get there, and that’s where we’re at right now.

For my money, Portugal should be far too smart for England today, and at 83/100, backing the Portugal win with draw no bet is a no-brainer. 

Verdict: Portugal U21 to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Russia U21 vs France U21

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I see folk backing France again today, and I honestly just don’t get it. Football is football, and France might win it, but they’ve been crap at major U21 tournaments for a lot of years now, consistently under-performing due to a lack of effort. What’s different now?

On paper, I think France have the best squad in the tournament – and comfortably so. The reality is that they almost never show it though. They didn’t just lose against an apparently inferior Denmark last time out, but they were easily beaten. Denmark didn’t batter them because they didn’t have to. They sat off France until they reached a certain point in Denmark’s half, and then they were pressed – hard. As a result, despite France’s Hollywood-esque squad, they barely did the Danes any damage whatsoever. Why should this team suddenly turn up against yet another underrated U21 team?

France, just like England, are bottlers at this level. They do not have enough industry, togetherness, and effectiveness as a unit. The only thing going for France is that they’ve got some brilliant individuals, and that’s the risk you take when opposing them. Why the hell anyone actually wants to back France to win this game is beyond me, though. I genuinely don’t remember the last time I watched and was impressed by them. They just don’t want it enough, France, and I don’t see them hurting Russia tonight with that in mind.

Russia humped Iceland last time out but I’ll sit on the fence a bit longer before deciding how far this squad can go because Iceland aren’t very good, and Russia’s players have generally not performed well at club level this season. Chalov is a fine example of such. He looked a lethal predator when first coming through at CSKA Moscow, and now he struggles to even get into double figures, which ultimately led to CSKA Moscow signing not one, but two strikers (the first – Gaich – didn’t work out). The talent is there, though. I still maintain that this is a golden generation of youngsters for Russia, but they have to prove it more regularly.

I don’t believe Russia can defend as well as Denmark did last time out, but then again, I don’t really see France doing enough collectively to ask the right questions of them anyway. Instead, I can see Oblyakov, Chalov, Diveyev, Lesovoy, Mostovoy, and especially Suleymanov all showing their quality here. They’ve got more ball-carriers than they’ve had in years, Russia, and a really good fusion of fearlessness and tenacity. I doubt their defence at times, but I don’t doubt their attack – and they’re facing a mentally weak French team here, so I’m sure you can see why I fancy Russia.

With the pressure on the French team, and Russia already with three points, I hand the advantage to Russia. With all of the above taken into account, backing Russia to not lose this game at 22/25 is seriously appealing to me. 

Verdict: Russia U21 to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 22/25.