Mongolia vs Japan
KO: (UK time)
The quality gap should be way too big here, especially after Japan’s convincing derby victory over South Korea last time out. Away win.
Verdict: Japan to win at 1/100.
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KO: (UK time)
The quality gap should be way too big here, especially after Japan’s convincing derby victory over South Korea last time out. Away win.
Verdict: Japan to win at 1/100.
KO: (UK time)
Hungary U21 may be at home in this tournament, but they’re simply out of their depth. They were missing too many players at the start of this tournament, have now lost two from two, being outplayed in both, and are now missing an extra man tonight after Szoke was dismissed in their derby against Romania. I may be somewhat unconvinced by the Dutch U21 team but there’s a very clear gulf in quality between these two teams right now, and I would be surprised to see Netherlands fail to take advantage of such.
Verdict: Netherlands U21 to win at 4/25.
KO: (UK time)
A win in Benin means Nigeria have now qualified for the African Nations. It was never in doubt anyway, to be honest, but the win made sure of it. They played well against a tough opponent too, and only good goalkeeping prevented the goal from coming sooner than it did. I can’t see Nigeria struggling against an inept Lesotho team today, even after inevitable rotation.
Verdict: Nigeria to win at 7/50.
KO: (UK time)
This group is basically over, at least as far as these two teams are concerned. Senegal should really want to celebrate their qualification for the African Nations with a win, and hosting one of the weakest teams in their group makes the task that bit easier. I doubt there’ll be that much in it, but I really can’t doubt the home win.
Verdict: Senegal to win at 1/25.
KO: (UK time)
I quite like Palestine’s team nowadays. They play some really good football at times. It goes without saying that they’re not the most efficient of teams, but they do like to keep things entertaining, and I feel like it’s only a matter of time before they end up playing at the Asian Cup. Having said that, taking on Saudi Arabia away from home should be a bridge too far, really. The hosts aren’t patient enough with their managers, and foreign integration in their domestic league hasn’t quite had the desired effect on the national team as of yet. However, Saudi Arabia are fast, good goal-scorers, and very strong at home so I only see one winner here.
Verdict: Saudi Arabia to win at 2/5.
KO: (UK time)
The quality gap is way too big here. This is the worst Belarusian team I’ve seen for a long time, and Belgium are just ruthless in front of goal, whether they play well or not. No handicaps for me as this team is very inconsistent to me, but Belgium should not struggle to win the match by a couple of goals at a minimum.
Verdict: Belgium to win at 1/25.
KO: (UK time)
It was a bit untidy, but ultimately Croatia got the three points that they needed against Cyprus. I’m expecting another gritty display tonight too, as Malta are better at defending than Cyprus, and they offer more threats on the break. I still think it’s quite the poor Maltese team, but it’s one that has a good tactical setup to frustrate opponents. This may not be a great Croatian team, but there’s still enough match-winners in it to decide this match in their favour.
Verdict: Croatia to win at 1/20.
KO: (UK time)
The Dutch are obviously going to win this one, and the manner of the victory will hinge entirely upon when they get their first goal. If it’s early enough, they could win this game by five or six. If not, I can see them under-performing tonight. Don’t get me wrong; they’ll still win either way. I just don’t think it’s a good time for this team, and Gibraltar can be annoying to get that first goal against. For now, I’ll leave handicaps off the table unless I see a lot of drive and energy in-play, but the away win cannot be doubted.
Verdict: Netherlands to win at 1/100.
KO: (UK time)
Back-to-back outstanding displays have seen Turkey beat both Norway and The Netherlands now, and the Turks are beside themselves at how well they’re defending now. Some of them have described their defence as ‘world class’. I don’t agree with that at that point, but I’m happy to admit it’s their best ever defence, and we’re only at the tip of the iceberg so in the future, this could become a world class defence. Their entire squad is good, although I do fear for goals whenever Yilmaz hangs up his boots unless Tosun moves somewhere where he’ll play regularly. In a way, tonight’s game is a bigger test for Turkey than either of their last two games because they’re the favourites, expected to break down a team that has only set out with the intention of defending against them. It’ll be interesting to see if Turkey blitz them or not. This is a pretty terrible Latvian team, all things considered, so anything but a home win would surprise me tonight. I’ve not really made up my mind on the manner of their victory, though.
Verdict: Turkey to win at 7/100.
KO: (UK time)
Burundi need to head to North Africa and win in order to stand a chance of qualifying for the African Nations, and it goes without saying that I don’t fancy their chances. In general, African teams tend to do the same thing against Morocco i.e. sit back, and hurt them with superior acceleration on the break, and Burundi can do that quite well. Morocco possess some truly gifted creators but aren’t always the hardest-working of teams, at least not when it comes to this tournament. In World Cups though, they tend to be seriously good. Morocco may already have qualified for the African Nations, but being attacked at home is going to afford them room that they don’t normally have, and that should only really result in one outcome.
Verdict: Morocco to win at 37/100.
KO: (UK time)
I watched Montenegro defeat Gibraltar last time out. They attacked as well as I thought they would overall, although it wasn’t without some issues along the way. I mean, they started brightly enough, but after conceding against the minnows, they lost their way a bit, and looked frustrated in the final third. That was enough for star attacker Jovetic to be roused from the bench at half-time, and that naturally led to a comfortable Montenegro win, running out 4-1 victors.
Despite the options up front though, Montenegro remain suspect at the back. They conceded in their win at Latvia, and conceded against Gibraltar too, which was a comedy of errors in itself. A free-kick was floated into the box, and one of the Gibraltar players was fouled. The comedy ensued when the ball actually ended up in the net as a perfectly legitimate Gibraltar goal – and the referee cancelled the goal, pulling it back for a penalty to Gibraltar instead. As it happened, they scored it anyway, but utterly calamitous officiating will always amuse me.
Montenegro with Jovetic are so much better than without him. It’s not just a case of him being their best player, either. He’s their captain, their leader, and the one that gets the best out of those around him. They have other good attackers, Montenegro, but it’s as clear as day to see how much Jovovic and Haksabanovic look up to him. He managed to sit out 45 minutes against Gibraltar, meaning that he should start tonight, and him playing all but guarantees that the team will score goals.
This defence does little for me though. Defenders are too quick to foul instead of working harder to prevent situations from arising, set pieces are poorly handled, and intelligent movement kills them. They can handle some attacks in Europe, but not very many – and I would be surprised if they could contain Norway here, not with the lethal firepower that the Scandinavians now have, whether Montenegro manage to win or not.
Norway have their best squad since the late 90’s right now. Sometimes I feel like they’re lacking a bit of experience at this level, not knowing when to slow play down, or when to apply some patience in getting forward. They’ve got some brilliant individuals in the final third but actually linking them up properly seems to continue to evade them. They weren’t as brilliant against Gibraltar as they should have been, for example, and Turkey simply swatted them away like a tiny fly last time out. Norway have some distance to go before I trust them in big games, basically, which was actually evident when they hosted an injury-ravaged Austria last year and yet still lost.
Having said all that, Norway do have goals in their ranks, and Montenegro do not look capable of stopping them. Haaland needs no introduction, and nor does Odegaard. There’s also Sorloth as a target man, talented Elyounoussi out wide, and some excellent overlapping full-backs. In-form Fossum is in the squad, King is a consistent threat, and emerging talents like Hauge are there too. This is a very attack-minded team, and one that should really score more than they do. I don’t see them failing to score against Montenegro tonight.
Much like their hosts though, Norway struggle in defence. They lack good centre-backs, especially with Reginiussen no longer in the equation. They lack leaders there, lack a top-drawer sitting midfielder, and with their full-backs usually rampaging forwards, Norway tend to be not just open at the back, but suspect from most situations. Against Jovetic, Jovovic, and Haksabanovic, that should result in Montenegro scoring at least once here.
Therefore, I’m left feeling like backing both teams to score at 9/10 is a good value pick.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 19/20.
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
World Cup Qualifiers – Asia:
Mongolia vs Japan (9) 0-2
Saudi Arabia vs Palestine (7) over 2.5 goals
World Cup Qualifiers – Europe:
Azerbaijan vs Serbia (6) 0-2
Cyprus vs Slovenia (6) 0-2
Luxembourg vs Portugal (6) 0-1
Belgium vs Belarus (7) 2-0
Wales vs Czechia (6) 1-2
Gibraltar vs Netherlands (10) over 2.5 goals
Montenegro vs Norway (5) 1-2
Turkey vs Latvia (8) 2-0
Croatia vs Malta (7) 1-0
Slovakia vs Russia (6) 0-2
African Nations Qualifiers:
Central African Republic vs Mauritania (6) 1-1
Ivory Coast vs Ethiopia (6) 2-0
Madagascar vs Niger (6) 1-0
Senegal vs Eswatini (7) 1-0
Guinea-Bissau vs Congo (5) 2-2
Nigeria vs Lesotho (8) 2-0
Sierra Leone vs Benin (6) 1-1
Morocco vs Burundi (7) 2-1
Cameroon vs Rwanda (6) 1-0
Mozambique vs Cape Verde Islands (6) 0-0
International Friendlies:
Republic of Ireland vs Qatar (5) 0-0
Jordan vs Bahrain (5) 2-1
Costa Rica vs Mexico (5) 1-1
European U21 Championship Finals:
Netherlands vs Hungary (7) 2-0
Germany vs Romania (6) 2-1
Italy vs Slovenia (6) 1-0
Spain vs Czechia (7) 2-0
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