TFT Issue 3388!

Armenia vs Romania

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

I seem to be in the minority here, but I’m ok with that. You may even get better odds on this selection than quoted because of it.

I watched Armenia host Iceland last time out, and I saw some of their win against Liechtenstein. Neither of their displays surprised me. What you’re always guaranteed with this team is energy. They love to play out from the back, attack with speed, take men on, and score goals. They give a shit, they have an amazing desire to win, and they never give up. I love that about them. They’re not especially good, per se, but they can be effective if an opponent doesn’t prepare to deal with them properly, which was certainly the case in the Iceland game. Every time an Armenian player (e.g. Barseghyan) took on an opponent, Iceland looked surprised and uncomfortable. If you can’t deal with that, you’re going to find life against Armenia very challenging indeed.

However, for those teams that know how to set themselves up tactically, Armenia are a walk in the park to beat. That’s because they have no approach to utilise in the final third other than their conventional speedy dribbling, and their defence is simply incapable of keeping good opponents out at this level. You can point to the experience of Voskanyan, Hambardzumyan, and Haroyan in defence if you want to, but to me it simply highlights the lack of options they’ve had in defence for a long time now. 

Even with Mkhitaryan still out for the home team, they remain a potent threat because of their ease on the ball, and the confidence they have in beating each man in front of them. They generally lack composure in front of goal though, and breaking teams down is usually rather problematic for them if they’re up against a team that knows how to hold a line and track runners. They’ve been lucky enough to face two teams recently that haven’t done that, but today they are facing a team that can do that – and that makes me fear for the home team.

Romania can be a bit dour to watch at times, and the situation in Romanian football in general is pretty bleak. This is quite a solid group they’ve put together though, as they showed in both of their recent fixtures, applying themselves well and giving a good account of themselves by full time as a consequence. They do lack a natural goal-scorer with Keseru’s better days behind him, and Puscas little more than a target man. I also think that they’re missing a modern day version of Radoi or Prodan i.e. someone to hold their back four together. Chiriches does his best but isn’t always fit, and certainly doesn’t have a worthy partner. 

As a collective though, Romania are rather good. Their inexperience at the back is a problem, especially in goal, but their midfield looks very mobile and dangerous at the moment. I mean, people still massively overrate Hagi because of his father but he has come on well, and is precisely what Romania need to make things happen. Maxim is in terrific form this season, Tanase is in terrific form this season too, and the quality of Man, Stanciu, and Bicfalvi is well known, enough so for even Coman’s withdrawal from the squad to not concern me. 

So, yes – I do still have some worries about Romania’s squad in general, but none that bother me about a trip to Armenia. I think this match will be a tremendous battle of wills, but Romana have better balance to their squad, better capacity to control games, and more talent, to put it bluntly. They should be able to score goals against a weak defence, especially from set pieces, and they should be organised enough to contain their hosts. Therefore, I rather fancy the away win here.

Verdict: Romania to win at 9/10.

Switzerland U21 vs Portugal U21

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

So the bookies think that dark horses Portugal are only worth 4/5 to win this game, huh? That’s interesting. They’ve got a really good team in a good place right now, and back-to-back wins means that they can afford to play this game however they wish to.

Now, you have to remember that Portugal entered this tournament as a defensive/cautious team. That’s the style that senior team boss Santos uses, so that’s the way their U21s try to play, at least at big tournaments – and they’re very good at it. They managed to grind out wins against Croatia and England without conceding a goal, and I expect more of the same tonight too – and I say that in the knowledge that they don’t even need to win.

So why back them? Simple, really – Switzerland do need to win. They were brilliant in the qualifiers, and brilliant against England, but really let themselves down against Croatia last time out. They gave away a ridiculous opener thanks to two consecutive goalkeeping errors in the same movement, gave away a stupid penalty, and conceded another sloppy goal – and yet I thought they were the better team during that entire period.  – but it might end up costing them their place in the knockout stage because Croatia can beat a Boothroyd-led England. Therefore, Switzerland need to go for the jugular tonight.

During the qualifiers, although they scored some lovely goals, I always felt more comfortable when they were containing and counter attacking, which simply isn’t a possibility tonight. They’ve got to try and play on the front foot against a team that’s remarkably comfortable on the ball, and a team that is not easily rattled. It’s not a good team for Switzerland to have to beat, basically. They do have some wildcards in their ranks, Switzerland, but not enough to beat Portugal, in my opinion.

Portugal absolutely love being attacked. They’re good enough to hold teams at arm’s length whilst punishing them at the other end via smart play and clinical finishing. I’d be less convinced about this pick if Portugal had to win because breaking teams down isn’t something they do particularly well whilst trying to keep as many men back as possible. The setup here really suits them though, because they get to play in a manner that suits them – and that’s almost always going to end well for a team with as much quality as this.

Therefore, I see a lot of problems on the horizon for Switzerland. My gut instinct says that Croatia will come second behind Portugal because they at least get a draw from their game against England; Switzerland can only upset the apple cart if they get something here. It’ll be a tense, tight affair between two very committed teams, but it’s one that Portugal really should be able to win. 

Verdict: Portugal U21 to win at 4/5.

England vs Poland

KO: 19:45 (UK time)

As always, I feel rather underwhelmed whilst watching England play, and I expect more of the same tonight. However, they do score more goals, and I still think that this is the best England I’ve seen for a long time because it’s effective, and there’s some life in the team under Southgate. It’s far from perfect; don’t get me wrong. I just have some very scarred memories of what England looked like before that, and this England is a marked improvement.

What I like about Southgate’s team is that there are less cowards than England usually have. In the past, we’ve had way too many that want to play safe sideways passes instead of being bold and trying to make things happen. I thought that was evident in the second-half of the match against San Marino after Trippier came on at right-back, and played as cautiously as if he were lining up against peak career Giggs or somebody! Other than him and Dier though, this squad is full of doers – and I like that. I don’t like that Rashford, Sancho, and Grealish’s creative input has been replaced by Lingard and Mount though. I do like Lingard and Mount, for clarity, but Lingard simply isn’t good enough, and Mount is fighting the Alamo. And yes, I am omitting Bellingham because he doesn’t look ready for this level.

Still, with Kane and Calvert-Lewin as strikers, and an outstanding creator in Foden supporting them, a great dribbler in Sterling, not to mention brilliant support from left-backs Shaw and Chilwell, and James at right-back, England do create chances. They tend to force more mistakes than they used to, and they tend to be more clinical with them. Subsequently, I trust England at home more than I used to.

On paper, Poland should give England a good game. In reality, I just don’t see it happening. For about two years now, Poland have threatened to be a good team but have never actually delivered. Individually, it’s one of the most talented Polish groups I’ve ever seen but collectively, they’re simply not effective. They don’t do anything to hurt opponents on a consistent basis, for example, and are far too cautious on the ball. This team should do a lot more than they traditionally do, basically.

In arguably their hardest group stage game, Poland find themselves without their world-class striker Lewandowski. The absence of Linetty and Kapustka, two others that can make things happen, is also not ideal. It’s left Poland with a rather young or inexperienced midfield, and they’re supporting strikers that are good, but seldom consistent. Zielinski and Krychowiak are obviously brilliant (although the latter tested positive for Covid-19 yesterday so presumably won’t play), and Grosicki has his moments too. There’s not enough in the Polish squad for me to worry about this pick, though – they just don’t function well as a unit.

Their defensive setup is rather good with experienced Glik alongside impressive Bednarek, and a very safe pair of gloves between the sticks, whether it’s Fabianski or Sczcesny. I think it’ll be quite annoying to break them down for that reason, plus countering is all but out of the question against an overly cautious team. England are clinical enough to make it happen though, and Poland are lacking too many things for me to take this underrated team seriously.

Therefore, I’m on the -1.5 Asian Handicap here.

Verdict: England to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 101/100.