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KO: (UK time)
The quality gap is way too big in this Svenska Cupen affair. Hammarby have been immense in the competition thus far, and Trelleborg are rightly in the division below them. I can only see a home win tonight.
Verdict: Hammarby to win at 1/4.
KO: (UK time)
Aha! So the day has come! I vividly recall writing in my preview of the reversal of this fixture that I would be backing Adelaide United to beat Central Coast Mariners at some point this season; just not at that time because things were going to shit. I backed the Mariners to win on the day, and they 100% deserved to do so. However, Adelaide United were awarded three penalties on the day, two of whichever never, ever were, and other was very dicey at best. Still, they scored them, and won 3-2. The great irony was that that result proved to be the catalyst for Adelaide United’s excellent run of form. What is it – six wins in a row now? Very impressive stuff. It started off shakily as both the Mariners and Wanderers really ran them ragged, but they’ve been brilliant since then.
It’s in games like these where I’m reminded as to why I like backing games in the ‘lesser leagues’. The bookies have made the Mariners favourites here purely because of the A-League table, basically. I said when these two teams last met that Adelaide United had the better squad, and were technically the more effective unit – just that they weren’t showing it at the time. I stand by those comments, only today they’re now likely to show it because they’re actually playing well. Furthermore, it’s a good time to face the Mariners. The home team aren’t in a downward spiral or anything, but they are slowing down a bit as teams have now figured out what they’re about.
I watched the Mariners host Victory last time out and barring a relatively good period in the first-half, Victory couldn’t deal with them. Victory only scored after the referee didn’t give the Mariners a free-kick in the middle of the park, instead awarding it the other way, which led to a swift break and a good finish from McManaman. Urena levelled not long after with a good finish from close range. For all of their possession though, the Mariners didn’t do enough to Victory, and that was the case even after Victory lost yet more defenders with Roux, Traore, and Ryan all withdrawn in the second-half. Christ, I even saw forward Kruse limping, and Brimmer hurt his shoulder too. Victory were knackered and wounded by the end, but the Mariners still didn’t do enough to hurt them, rarely testing Acton.
That’s the thing – the Mariners are good at sitting back and countering, and they are quite good at holding leads – but they’re not good when forced to have the ball, or to be on the front foot. If Adelaide United force them to do that today, which they’re more than capable of doing, then the Mariners aren’t going to damage them much. They’re still fast and awkward to deal with; don’t get me wrong. Adelaide look far more assured at the back now though, having got most of their defenders back and settled in, and having now acquired consistent Spanish midfield sitter Juande to do the ugly work.
Another thing I’ve noticed is that the Mariners have started making more mistakes in possession, especially in the first third and midfield. Three of their players in particular are quite good on the ball, and certainly aren’t dumb, but they don’t look quite enough to deal with losing possession, which are Stensness, Bowman, and Tongyik. Tongyik can move if given a few seconds to properly get going, and all three are built like brick shithouses, but being dispossessed really does cause the Mariners issues – and Adelaide are good at making such happen.
I think that The Reds are too professional and too efficient for the Mariners right now, to be frank. I thought they were truly terrific against Sydney FC last time out. They needed a penalty to get the breakthrough but it was deserved; they were the only ones truly trying to win the game with Sydney always looking over their shoulders. Furthermore, you have to bear in mind that Sydney are the reigning champions, and that Adelaide were without a lot of players – that’s how to appreciate the quality of the display and result.
As expected, Goodwin’s return to the squad has been a massive boost because he’s a brilliant match-winner at this level. Juande will have a similar impact in due course, albeit in a very different position. Mauk has stepped up more, Halloran has got going, and despite both Mohamed Toure and Juric being out lately, third choice striker Yengi has been tremendous, really staking his case for a place in the first-team. He never stops running, is very powerful, and is a good finisher. It’ll be interesting to see how that goes today now that Juric is supposedly back in the fold, although I’ll believe it when I see it, knowing the usual way in which the A-League operates!
They’ve become good at everything, Adelaide. Even young goalkeeper Gauci looks amazing as Delianov’s stand-in, making at least one match-winning save against Sydney last time out. Everything feels extremely positive in the Adelaide camp right now basically. They’re controlling games, they’re able to both press hard and high, or sit back and soak up. They’re scoring goals for fun, no matter how few chances they’re granted, and the sheer number of players that they have that can do the unexpected makes this such a tough team to anticipate. Yes, I have to say that Veart has turned this young team around this season, and they look more than capable of beating the league leaders today.
Again, I can’t quite believe that the Mariners are favourites today, even after a very positive start to the season. Being able to back Adelaide with draw no bet at good odds looks a very good bet to me today.
Verdict: Adelaide United to win with draw no bet at 5/4.
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
Australian A-League:
Western United – Pasquali and Risdon are absent. Hamill returns.
Melbourne City – O’Neill is absent. Reis returns.
Central Coast Mariners – No absentees.
Adelaide United – Kitto, Delianov, Mohamed Toure, Lopez, Smith, and Konstandopoulos are absent. Juric returns.
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
Australian A-League:
Western United vs Melbourne City (6) 0-2
Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide United (5) 1-2
Swedish Svenskan Cupen:
Hammarby vs Trelleborg FF (7) 2-0
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