TFT Issue 3391!

AC Milan vs Sampdoria 

KO: 11:30 (UK time)

Sampdoria is not a team that Milan tend to struggle to beat, and whilst led by Ranieri, that should remain the same. Pioli is a more modern manager, demanding more from his team in terms of high pressing. Ranieri’s teams are only ever good at sitting and countering. I’m sure they’ll have some chances today whilst playing that way, but seeing how far Pioli’s style has taken Milan this season, I’m struggling to doubt the home team’s chances today.

True, the handicap may be a shade bold of me, although the insurance on the one-goal victory is present. I still think that Milan should have too much for Sampdoria here though. They’re still without Leao, Romagnoli, Calabria, and Mandzukic, none of which I’m especially concerned about as Kjaer and Tomori have been terrific at the back, and Ibrahimovic is back up front. Brahim Diaz’s absence isn’t ideal but Castillejo, Calhanoglu, Rebic, and Kessie should have enough between them to feed Ibrahimovic, especially with Bennacer back to run the midfield. 

I think the international break came at the right time for Milan. They were struggling with fixture congestion, both physically and mentally. Some players of theirs have been on international duty but a lot haven’t so I’m expecting Milan to be in good shape today. Only the top Italian teams have beaten them at home this season; everybody else has had a horrible time in trying to do so. They’ve got a lot of routes to goal, Milan, and they’re playing a style that is really hard to deal with. I can see them doing Sampdoria more damage than Sampdoria do them, that’s for sure.

I feel sorry for the Genoa club. They were progressing well over a number of years, bringing in young talents, raising them, and selling them on for profit. They played good football, scored good goals, and were very entertaining. They’ve still got a good squad now, but cowardice from the nutcase Sampdoria owner led to the appointment of Ranieri to keep them in the division last season, and they’ve kept him ever since. I like Ranieri, don’t get me wrong, but he’s not a progressive manager, and never has been. He’ll do an amazing job for one season – which he did at Sampdoria – and then things will get very boring, very quickly. That’s where Sampdoria are at right now, with their excellent attacking creativity completely stifled by negative tactics.

I’m talking about a team with Jankto, Ramirez, Candreva, Balde, and Quagliarella – and none of them are in double figures for this season. Not just that, but their defence – which is traditionally a cornerstone of any Ranieri team – is actually quite poor. The shape of the whole unit is pretty good, as expected, but the individuals do not like defending one-on-one. That’s how teams hurt Sampdoria, and I am confident that Milan will be the same. On paper, this is a team that can actually fight back and hurt Milan but the tactics they’re being asked to play doesn’t suit them, which is why they’ve been well beaten in the majority of their harder games this season.

What else can I say? Milan should not struggle here.

Verdict: AC Milan to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 89/100.

Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split

KO: 11:55 (UK time)

Could relegation finally be a realistic possibility for Lokomotiva Zagreb? For years they’ve existed rather handsomely in Croatia, funded by big brothers Dinamo Zagreb. With Mamic behind bars though, the swell of support for Lokomotiva is likely to dry up – and that’s all that stops this fan-less club from being relegated, in my book.

The home team have struggled enough this season because Dinamo loaned them less players than usual. Then they’ve had lots of other problems, which has not only led to experienced veterans like Jelavic either getting injured too much or retiring (in his case, both), but has also led to them changing managers three times now. They’re panicking, Lokomotiva, and you know what? They’re absolutely right to because this is not a squad that has the right mentality to avoid relegation.

They’ve no viable route to goal, Lokomotiva, as all of their best forwards are either injured or have left, which means that they seldom score goals without tremendous assistance from opposing teams. They’ve brought Males back to help them control games better but he’s not a miracle man; he needs somebody to play with of a similar calibre, and that simply does not exist in this squad.

At least their defence is intact though, right? Wrong. Defensive midfielder Dira is out today, which creates a problem that they cannot solve as he’s played more minutes this season than anyone else in this squad. Just imagine what’ll happen to them if Greek centre-back Papadopoulos has one of his crazier moments and gets sent off. This is a team that relies enormously on their capacity to frustrate teams so being without both simultaneously would be a killer. Even just without Dira, it’s hard for me to envision a happy conclusion to today’s Prva Liga fixture against a far superior Hajduk Split side; a team that has zero sympathy for their plight because of their support for Dinamo Zagreb over the years, and the natural rivalry that exists between Hajduk and Dinamo.

Defensive midfielder Cokaj is another that is out for the home team, as is centre-back Leskovic and emerging young striker Simic. These problems are too great for new boss Toplak to solve in a highly competitive Prva Liga campaign. The only shining light for this team is that Sibenik have been stupid enough to sack Rendulic because other than that, I would be confident in Lokomotiva going down this season. Unless new Argentinian target man Bonansea turns out to be a secret superstar (which I doubt), Lokomotiva are in real trouble, both in their campaign and in today’s game.

The away team have annoyed me this season, and indeed, over the past few seasons. They keep making the same mistakes; getting into a good rhythm with a good plan, and then suddenly changing literally everything and starting over. I’d like to think that Hajduk would use this period of uncertainty at Dinamo to their advantage to close the gap in a bid to become Croatia’s best team but being twenty-two points behind Osijek (who are second!) pours cold water on that idea, even with two games in hand. 

Still, Hajduk are performing well at the moment, and they still have quality in their squad, as per usual. Some players had to go as their contracts were ending (e.g. Gyursco) but good replacements came in (e.g. Kacaniklic). Fossati has joined too, Caktas is looking back to his best, and this team continues to move the ball swiftly and hurt teams via good attacking play. No, I don’t trust their defending for a single second, and the peripheral nature of emerging defensive midfielder Nejamsic continues to bamboozle me. 

However, their attacking is very good, at least in chance creation. Sometimes there’s a lack of composure in front of goal, which is why Diamantakos was brought in. Typically, the Greek forward has managed to injure himself so he will be amongst those not featuring today. I still think there’s enough in this attack to damage a seriously under-strength Lokomotiva seide that has zero morale, and a very low capacity to control this fixture with their two main holding midfielders out. Hajduk may be a bit wild with their form guide, but they generally do the right things on the pitch, and that alone should be enough for the win today.

At 83/100, the away win suits me just fine here.

Verdict: Hajduk Split to win at 83/100.

Heidenheim vs Greuther Furth 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I suspect that this game will become a very typical Bundesliga 2 affair, which is essentially what happened in Greuther Furth vs Nurnberg last time out. Furth are tiring now, and making way too many defensive errors, predominantly so as a team rather than individually. Heidenheim have had to switch formations to accommodate both Kuhlwetter and Kleindienst in the same eleven, which in practice means playing more attacking football. The combination of these two teams really should be like pouring fuel on the fire, assuming someone scores early enough to get things going.

Both teams have eight games remaining, and both have hopes of promotion. Furth are in a better position than Heidenheim, but by no means is their challenge easier. Both teams are striving, and both look very open because of it. That’s not Furth’s preferred style of play but it’s what they’ve been forced into because of fixture congestion and limited rotation options. I watched them host Nurnberg last time out, and just wow – the chances they gave away in the second-half were criminal. For a good ten to fifteen minutes, Nurnberg poured every attack down the right hand side because nobody was helping Raum, meaning that they could overload him very easily, and that’s what led to them taking the lead in the end. They could have scored again too as the game got really stretched, Furth throwing men forward to equalise, which they eventually did. It was a useful point, considering that they were far from at their best, but I saw an openness in that game which traditionally does not feature in this squad. They’ve been like this too often lately, and are dropping too many points because of it. Why should today’s trip to Heidenheim be any different?

I mean, Raum himself has just played three games for Germany U21; he’s going to be knackered. Key centre-back Mavraj is still out. They’re going to be stretched by their hosts today, Furth, and they do not have the legs to cope with it right now. Three months ago, sure, but they look leggy at the moment, and understandably so. They’re also without attackers Kehr and Abiama but I am less concerned by that because Nielsen, Hrgota, Seguin, Ernst, and Green will be playing. Furthermore, Berggreen found himself on the bench a couple of weeks ago after a long time out. He may have been forgotten about, but he is a good forward.

Furth’s attack is still dangerous, but their defence is very open; that’s the lay of the land right now. Can Heidenheim capitalise upon it? They absolutely should. I’ve all but given up on them defensively in the past few weeks as that really doesn’t seem to be an area of focus for them. Yes, they’ve had some hard games, but the goals they’ve conceded and the lack of willingness for players to get back to help out is killing them way too often. That’s why it’s becoming harder to back Heidenheim to win as the season goes on; tired players haven’t got as much energy a fresh players.

Their attack still looks bloody good to me though. Kleindienst has seven in six since his return to Heidenheim, and Kuhlwetter is as lethal as he has been all season long. Thomalla, Theuerkauf, Mohr, and Sessa all contribute sometimes too, although it’s Schnatterer and Kerschbaumer that more were expected of, and yet less has come from. This attack of Heidenheim’s is good enough to get them promoted though, and that’s certainly the intention this season. Last season’s play-offs were enough to whet their appetites. Now, with a better attack and the same mentally strong players, they’re aiming to do it again, albeit with a more fruitful finale. That involves winning today though!

I can’t really split these two teams. Furth are usually better organised but are knackered defensively. Heidenheim are usually more of a flexible mirror team but even they are feeling the fatigue, and are pressing forward a lot more to balance things out. I don’t expect either team to play especially well overall here, but they should both attack enough for the game to go over 2.5 goals.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals  at 4/5.

Hermannstadt vs Arges

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

Is it just me, or are Arges priced a little long here? They’ve got a chance of making the top six if they win their last two matches, both of which are distinctly possible. I mean, Hermannstadt are second from bottom, and Chindia Targoviste (next week’s opponents) might be out of the top six equation by then if they get done over by Voluntari, who have been excellent lately.

Say what you like about Arges; they don’t lose many games. Only one team has beaten them in 2021, and that’s CFR Cluj in a very suspicious game which Arges didn’t appear to even try in. Everybody else – FCSB included – have failed to beat this team. It’s fair to say that boss Ianovschi, who was only appointed as manager back in December, has done a sterling job. This is not a particularly good squad on paper, but it’s being made to look like one by an impressive tactician. That’s enough for me to begin trusting them to win today.

The rest of the trust stems in their capacity to score goals. Swiss forward Malele has been something of a revelation this season, and with Grecu, Serban, and N’Diaye supporting him, Arges have been rather effective. What I like most about this team is that they know when to play on the front foot, and when to sit back and soak it up. Despite not being a star-studded line-up – far from it, actually – they’re remarkably professional, Arges, and I’d like to think that’d be the case again today.

Can the same be said of Hermannstadt? I doubt it – they’ve just changed managers, meaning that Beza will be their third manager of the season. Yes, ex-Romania international centre-back Cibotariu was axed on Sunday. He had only been in charge for two-and-a-half months so I have a lot of questions about this move, namely what did they think he could do in that time, why wait until the middle of the international break to sack him, and why sack him now, two matches before the end of the regular campaign? It’s stupidity on every level.

On top of that, keep in mind that this team does not play in its home stadium in Sibiu. Today’s game, for example, will take place in Medias. It’s not hard to see why this team is struggling, is it? A lack of consistent direction, a lack of home advantage, and suddenly a bad run becomes a rut that they have no way of getting out of. It’s not an especially bad group of players, you understand. Young Spanish midfielder Mayoral has impressed this season, for example. Romario Pires is a very good creator, and you know what you’re getting from a forward like Karanovic, even if goal-scoring isn’t exactly his forte. I certainly couldn’t state that they were inferior to Arges.

As a unit though, Hermannstadt struggle. They don’t defend well enough as one, they don’t win enough 50/50 battles, and sure as hell don’t score enough goals. If they were on a good run, I’d be quite confident in them avoiding the drop, but as things currently stand, I’m really not sure. Mentally, they just don’t look ready for such a battle, especially with so little in their favour. That also translates to me thinking that dealing with a good, consistent, and organised Arges today is beyond them.

The above is why the odds confuse me here. I’m not saying that Arges should be red-hot favourites, but they should be more fancied than they are. With the proviso that there isn’t any match-fixing I’m unaware of, backing Arges with draw no bet at generous odds of 13/10 is very appealing. 

Verdict: Arges to win with draw no bet at 13/10.

Benevento vs Parma 

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Benevento won at Juventus just before the international break in a coupon-busting smash-and-grab job. They scored because Juventus were fucking around with the ball in their own back four, gave it away (against a team that is known in Serie A for high pressing!), and were not able to convert their dominance into goals. I don’t want to take anything away from Benevento after their historic win in Torino, but let’s just say that they won’t be ‘gifted’ many wins like that, especially not by teams that still have something to play for.

Enter Parma, a team desperate to avoid the depression of Serie B after working so hard to get back to Serie A. They’ve not got much wrong this season but perhaps were a bit too hasty in some things that they did. This is a very competitive Serie A nowadays; mistakes are generally punished regularly. Still, Parma have acted accordingly in 2021, bringing back a familiar face to lead them – D’Aversa – and making some very impressive captures in the transfer market. I still find the signing of Zirkzee a trifle too fanciful for my liking, who never really convinced me at Bayern Munich, but Pelle’s arrival was pure gold for me. He’s a natural finisher, and a good target man. He’s not played as much as I’d have liked, but has left his mark when he has, and he remains a very good option. Romanian wonderkid Man was another inspired signing; he’s such a talent, and he adds an ‘X factor’ to their attack, which the brilliant Gervinho has occasionally not provided this season because of injury problems. 

What I find confusing about this whole scenario is that this is actually a good Parma team. It’s very similar to the Parma team of last season, which competed for a UEFA Europa League place. They’ve not got as much out of Danish target man Cornelius as they’re accustomed to, admittedly, but there’s still a lot of quality in this squad. It’s great to see Karamoh back playing regularly, for example, and with brilliant creators like Kucka, Hernani, Brugman, and Kurtic supporting, Parma have been dangerous in the final third. Putting the ball has evaded them though. I’d like to think that Pelle, Gervinho, Man, and possibly even Zirkzee will be able to turn the tide for Parma but it’s got to happen now.

I mean, Parma are only within touching distance of three other teams, and three of those four will be relegated. A win today wouldn’t just give Parma a good chance of getting away from the mire, but it would also drag Benevento back into the equation. Parma need as many teams in this relegation battle as possible to keep the pressure on because when it comes to mental strength, Parma are really, really good. At the moment, the likes of Spezia are untroubled by the events going on below them – but we’ll see what they’re made of if Cagliari, Parma etc. win a couple of matches. 

Cards on the table; Parma need to win this game. It’s one of their most winnable remaining fixtures, and I say that with the utmost respect for battling Benevento, who never give teams a moment’s rest against them. Parma have quality that Benevento can’t even dream of, basically. For the past month or so, today’s hosts have really started to struggle to cope with the energy required in order to unsettle Serie A teams because of how long they’ve been playing the same way this season without much rotation. I’m sure the Juventus win will give them a new lease of life but this is still a seriously tired side.

With Benevento, the focus has to be in matching their stamina and intensity. If you can do that, beating them simply becomes about converting chances better than they do, which most Serie A clubs can boast. I know they’ve signed CSKA Moscow misfit Gaich to try and change that, and he’s started rather brightly (what else can be expected when training with Filippo Inzaghi?!) but I’m still not convinced he’s what they need. Still, he’s a handy signing, giving them height when few others in their attack do. The rest tend to bring speed and pressing. 

Falque, Ionita, and Hetemaj are very experienced creators at this level; they tend to ensure that the pace of the ball is fast enough for Benevento to always have defenders looking over their shoulders. Keeping them on the back foot limits them though, and that’s what Parma not only can do, but must do because their defence isn’t close to being good enough to sit back and contain Benevento. However, their midfield and attack is good enough to keep things going in their favour, and that’s what they need to try to press home. 

Both Hellas Verona and ACF Fiorentina have beaten Benevento at home recently, the former via the mirror approach, and the latter via using the ball better. Parma can definitely do that as long as they’re composed and clinical. Either way, I’m struggling to accept that they should be underdogs here. For me, this type of game really suits energetic Parma, and with the quality they’ve got, backing the away win with draw no bet cover at 83/100 is something I can’t pass up on.

Verdict: Parma to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Istra 1961 vs NK Osijek

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Osijek are right to be favourites for this match as it’s one that they really should win. They’ve used their money well since being bought out by a Hungarian consortium, which is essentially funded by the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban. Don’t ask me about the political side of it, please!

Purely from a football standpoint, Osijek are thriving because of it. Not only have they been able to get Bjelica in as boss, but have also signed players like Bohar, Erceg, and Mierez, all of which are way too good for this club and this level. Gone are the days of over-relying on troubled winger Bockaj; he now does as he’s told or he doesn’t get in the squad, which is a new experience for him. Even Grezda can barely get a game nowadays, and he used to be a star for Osijek!

Osijek look lethal, basically. Imagine suddenly finding a striker that can score twenty goals a season at Prva Liga level, and actually being able to sign him – crazy shit. They’ve even signed experienced forward Santini lately, either because they anticipate somebody signing Mierez from them in the summer, or just because they wanted to flex their financial muscle that bit more whilst chasing Dinamo for the title. Everywhere you look in this squad now, there’s quality. Alright, you can argue that their defenders pick up cards too easily, and that their old-work rate isn’t as prevalent, but the quality in their squad cannot be doubted. When they want to win games, they do – it’s that simple.

For that reason, I cannot endorse you backing Istra to get something here. However, what I would say is not to underestimate them. Forget the Prva Liga table; they’ve played some marvellous football in 2021 – and I never thought I’d be saying that in a million years! This is a poor team with a poor pitch, after all, but they’ve used some friends in high places to bring in some seriously good players on loan. Quite what the likes of Bande and Levitt are doing at Istra, I honestly couldn’t say, but one thing is for certain – the league table lies about how good they actually are.

They’re unbeaten in four matches now, Istra, and enter each game with real confidence, almost in a manner that is certain about their chances of beating the drop. This is far from a perfect team, of course, and they still concede goals. However, they find the net and create chances far more easily than normal, and they’re so much easier to watch now they’ve invested in players that don’t just wallop the ball downfield when under pressure. They actually try to play out from the back sometimes now, Istra, and they’re so much better at hurting teams because of it. No promises, but I suspect they’re going to trouble Osijek today.

Osijek have a shocking record in Istra, although I’d argue that they’ve not rocked up with as good a squad as they have now in many moons. Having said that, I’d also argue that Istra haven’t played as well as they are playing right now for a long time either. Therefore, the 1×2 market does nothing for me, even if the quality advantage should ensure that this match ends in an away win. For me, backing both teams to score at evens makes more sense, especially with both teams really needing a win more than anything else, hence the tip.

Verdict: Both teams to score at evens.

Mainz 05 vs Arminia Bielefeld

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

God, I love Mainz at this time of the year! It must be incredibly frustrating for their fans to watch shit for the first-half of the campaign only to suddenly channel their inner Bayern Munich for the second-half of it in a bid to stave off the threat of relegation, and yet that’s precisely what happens! Never a dull moment though, eh?

Ironically, it was against Bayern where I first saw Mainz begin to crawl out of their cocoon earlier in 2021, absolutely obliterating Bayern Munich away from home for 50 minutes only to turn a 2-0 win into a 5-2 loss. Danish boss Svensson really has done a lot of good since taking over in January, although I feel like the proof in the pudding will be seen next season because Mainz always play well at this time of year, like I said above. Maybe it’s simply the case that their natural work-rate shows more at times like these when most teams ease off the gas through fatigue or a lack of motivation; I don’t know. Whatever the case may be though, I trust Mainz a lot right now.

They’re obviously not perfect, Mainz, but they’ve done a lot of good things in 2021, both on and off the pitch. On the pitch, they’ve given more of a shit, got St. Juste and Niakhate to stay fit and play together, giving them a defence that operate well in a high line. They’ve also acquired experienced attack-minded full-back da Costa as well as experienced central midfielder Kohr to keep things calm and collected. The emergence of Luxembourgian wonderkid Barreiro, drifting between the lines, and the return of winger Oztunali from injury has done Mainz the power of good too. 

The most important thing for me has been the restoration of club legend Szalai as target man up front. The writing was on the wall for Svensson’s predecessor when he opted to drop the big man from the squad. It’s really not a coincidence that Mainz have been more effective in the final third since he started playing again. He looked sharp for Hungary against San Marino mid-week too. They’ve got Glatzel as an alternative, and rapid support options from Onisiwo and Quaison too. Maturing midfielder Boetius bridges the gap between midfield and attack better than ever too, although I do wish he’d cut out the diving. Everything is really positive about this team right now though; that’s the point I am laboriously making. They’re consistent, hard-working, clinical, organised, and exceptionally focused right now. This is not the kind of team that should pass up on the opportunity to pick up three points at home against Arminia Bielefeld, basically.

Although they’ve had their moments in 2021, it’s plain to see that Arminia Bielefeld just can’t hack life in the Bundesliga. I feared it would be this way after seeing their lack of reinforcements, and so it has proved to be. By no means have they shamed themselves this season though, producing very well-organised displays. Who knows what would have happened had their main striker Voglsammer been available for most of the campaign too? Perhaps he and Doan could have kept them up together. They might still stay up, to be honest, but I don’t see it. The desire and structure is there, but the goals simply aren’t.

Doan has dropped off a bit over the past month or so, and understandably so – he’s been carrying the Arminia Bielefeld attack this season. Even the return of Voglsammer today does not make me think that this team has a realistic chance of stopping in-form Mainz at the moment though. I think Cordova and Schipplock have let the team down with their output this season, although I will tip my cap to Schipplock because he’s had serious injury problems, and the fact that he can still even play at this level is a massive testament to his tenacity and belief.

The bottom line is that Arminia Bielefeld simply don’t have the quality required to be a Bundesliga outfit though. They can hold their own quite well in most games but you know that they’ll concede at some stage, and when they do, it’s generally game over for them. Other than in their historic 2-1 win against a massively out of sorts Bayer 04 leverkusen (who were playing so badly that they’ve now sacked Bosz, who was in charge of them at that time), Arminia Bielefeld have not scored a goal since their incredibly bizarre 3-3 draw in Munich back in February. Good teams have torn them apart or simply grinded their way past them, and no matter how they try, they just can’t hack it, Arminia Bielefeld.

For what they’ve given, I hope they avoid the drop, the visitors. They don’t deserve to be in the same position as Koln or Hertha Berlin, who have both been far too lazy in too many different areas this season, or even Schalke 04, who have been shocking in every area this season. Still, football isn’t decided on merit; it’s decided on goals, and today’s visitors just don’t score enough, largely because they don’t create enough chances. The cherry on the cake for the visitors today is that key defender Pieper is out, and that’s probably a blessing in disguise, given how many games he played for Germany U21 over the past two weeks. They’ll miss him though, especially as defending is all that they’re really any good at, Arminia Bielefeld.

With the above in mind, I cannot possibly overlook the bookies’ generosity of providing 83/100 on the home win/

Verdict: Mainz 05 to win at 83/100.

Aarau vs FC Schaffhausen 

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

Aarau look to be priced way too short to me here. I know Schaffhausen are not in a great place right now but they’re still the better team, and writing them off – as the bookies appear to have done by pricing the Aarau win as they have – is a very bold and dangerous move in equal measure.

I mean, it’s not like Aarau are any better off here, you know? They’ve lost two out of their last three games, conceding way too many goals (as per usual), and just don’t have any consistency. True enough, getting star attacker Gashi back is a big plus but that doesn’t magically make them better at everything they’re bad at like defending, for example. They’ve had lots of injury problems at the back for a while now, and Schindelholz has been out for a hell of a long time. Even with a fully fit back four though, Aarau simply do not look capable of keeping teams out.

That said, I have to give boss Keller credit for making this team less reliant on its strikers, which has been a big problem of theirs for a while now. I know young Stojilkovic has emerged in due course but in general, Aarau have played with mostly mobile midfielders to confuse opponents, which has worked well. Rrudhani, Balaj, Spadanuda, Jackle, and Aratore have all done really well on that front, although I have to admit that I did expect even more from the latter.

Gashi has thrived the most, though. By no means is he what I’d call a striker, but he operates between the lines and causes problems for teams. He’s their best player in general, and that’s especially the case in this kind of fluid setup, so his return is most favourable for Aarau. They’ve got so many good finishers and good creators that scoring goals is second nature for Aarau now. Winning games – not so much. They’re good enough to outscore any Challenge League team on their day but they’re also capable of losing against any of them, circumstances permitting. The above does not describe a team that should be odds-on to beat Yakin’s Schaffhausen.

Do I think that Aarau should be favourites? At this time, yes. It’s not the results of Schaffhausen lately that bothers me so much, but moreso the way they’ve played, and the ease with which they’ve conceded. Key defender Mujcic is listed as a doubt for the trip to Aarau today too – imagine how much they’ll struggle at the back if he doesn’t make it! Risking him doesn’t seem worth it either, given his injury problems in the past. I certainly don’t envision Schaffhausen leaving this game with a clean sheet, not unless Aarau are reduced to seven men or something – and even then it’d be dicey!

Keep in mind that Yakin has brought in/used a lot of South Americans and Balkan folks since taking over though. There’s a reason he’s done that, and it’s because players from those regions are, generally speaking, highly competitive. That means they work harder, they want it more, and they’re good in tough situations. Aarau should be favourites, but I’m not about to write off a team with Pollero, Prtajin etc. in it! For the majority of this season, they’ve been playing like winners and true promotion candidates, Schaffhausen. I refuse to believe that that has simply dissipated this month.

Promotion is not off the table for the away team but if they keep losing it will be. Most teams in this battle aren’t mentally strong enough to pull away from them, and Grasshopper are the biggest bottlers in the division, so Schaffhausen should still believe. They need to string wins together at the business end of the season though, and they absolutely can win today. They’ve got to be focused, energetic, and clinical today though. Again, they’re the better team here so I’m not about to write the visitors off. They’ve got to go for the win here though, and if they do, we should see an entertaining game, which is generally what transpires when these two attack-minded teams lock horns anyway.

Therefore, rather than entering the 1×2 minefield, I’m on over 3 goals. 

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 11/10.

Inter Turku vs SJK

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

This pick is a bit riskier than the other two Suomen Cup affairs in Finland today because it features two very good teams. The risk from it stems mostly from the fact that Inter Turku already look very fit and steely-eyed whereas SJK have mostly played well but still aren’t quite playing as well as they showed under Honkavaara last season. 

I still find the odds on Inter winning this game to be far too short though. I agree that they’re more likely to manage it, especially with battering ram Furuholm in the form he’s in. The quality gap is narrowing though, especially with Inter’s defensive players having been plundered by other clubs pre-season, and SJK’s slow learning curve of not sacking a manager every six months having produced far more consistent displays. Who’d have thought it, eh?

Inter have been really professional in the Suomen Cup in 2021 though, I must say. They look a couple of weeks ahead of most Finnish teams right now. Consider that that has happened despite Muniz’s replacement Kako Sanz having barely played too, which is even more impressive. Boss Riveiro has done some really good things at Inter since he joined, although he’s also done some very bizarre things. I mean, in the Veikkausliiga last season they looked so much better in an orthodox formation with two sitting midfielders, namely Muniz and Annan. At some stage, the Spaniard went all “Football Manager 2021” on his team though, re-signing Slovenian attacker Valencic as well as their former wonderkid Kallman whilst already having Furuholm. The end result was that he changed the formation, trying to squeeze Valencic in behind Furuholm, sacrificing a holding midfielder to make it happen, and those were the games they struggled in the most.

With Valencic now back at HJK though, Inter have gone back to their favoured formation, and they look better for it. New Argentinian attacker Pastoriza has done well in spells, and Kagayama just seems to get better the longer he’s in Turku. Everything feels very healthy and positive in this squad, and the fact that they’re getting by with such a young, inexperienced defence is really impressive. I do think that tough times await them because of their lack of experience at the back, and I am relying on SJK to provide an example of such today. I understand why Inter are favourites though.

I’m really curious to see this game because I don’t know quite where SJK are at right now. Because Ilves made so many radical changes pre-season, AC Oulu lost key players after promotion, and because they faced their own youth team in the last round, the only real test SJK have had in the Suomen Cup this season came against KuPS. Despite missing two key players, KuPS ran out 5-2 winners despite a positive start for the Seinajoki outfit. I’m not going to read too much into that because we’re talking about a seriously good KuPS team, and it was one of their first competitive matches of 2021. I do want to see how they fare in Turku after a decent warm-up though.

Because they’ve let Honkavaara do his thing since joining, there’s a real sense of stability and consistency about SJK now. They may not always win, but they generally play well, generally create chances, and generally score goals. They even look good at the back, largely thanks to wonderkid Vainionpaa. Well, perhaps it’s unfair to label him as a ‘wonderkid’; let’s just say that he’s precisely what SJK needed to help them get out of their malaise of the past few years because he’s not afraid to get physical on the pitch, and he gives a shit. He’s imperative to them, but perhaps doesn’t have enough quality to really play at a higher level.

SJK have added good midfielders like Akpan and Backaliden (formerly of IFK Mariehamn) to their squad pre-season to give them more options and more control, meaning less reliance on ageing Hetemaj. Jervis has stayed, affording them a good portion of height from late runs into the box. Ledesma’s arrival last season gave them a great option in the box because of his movement, although he appears to be playing in more of a wide position thanks to young forward Lepisto’s emergence this season. With the classy Ngueukam and rapid Atakiyi in the equation, SJK suddenly find themselves with lots of very good options getting forward, and I would be a bit surprised to see Inter’s young defence contain such here.

However, with SJK yet to fully integrate their new defenders, and a Furuholm-led Inter coming at them, I really do understand why Inter should win this one. SJK look more geared up to attack than defend nowadays, especially with attacking full-backs (both former wingers too) like Murilo and Markkula in the back four. SJK should not fear Inter though. They’re mentally stronger than they used to be, and if they can keep their heads today, I think that they’ll give Inter a good game, irrespective of the eventual outcome.

Therefore, backing both teams to score is my call today.

Verdict: Both teams to score at evens.

SC Kriens vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

KO: 17:15 (UK time)

Is there such a thing as a stone cold under 2.5 goals game? If so, this is it. And yes, I’m aware that I’ve probably now cursed the pick so it’ll be 2-0 inside ten minutes!

In reality though, this really should be a low-scoring affair. Kriens have to keep games that way because open games – particularly now that Abubakar has left – equates to suicide for them. They aren’t good enough in the final third to outscore teams in such situations, and that’s still my opinion even after they brought Sessolo back to Switzerland and loaned Luan from Sion. Both lend Kriens attacking quality, certainly moreso than they had before, but this is a team that needs to control games in order to stand a chance of getting something out of them.

With the ball, they can let Yesilcayir loose, whom they need more than ever as Djorkaeff is still a bit too inconsistent for my liking. Yesilcayir is the only one they’ve got that is currently capable of playing good through balls for Luan, Sessolo, and Marleku. That’s worked quite well in 2021, actually. I’ve backed Kriens on a few occasions because an attack was all that they were lacking from their setup – and now they have one. Today does not represent a day which I’ll be doing so though!

Why? Well, aside from the fact that they’re facing Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, a team playing surprisingly well at the moment, they’re also going to have to do the job without Luan and Yesilcayir. I’ve already mentioned what the latter brings to the equation. Luan may not be a particularly good finisher, and his time in Sion sure as hell has destroyed his confidence, but he’s fast, he runs the channels well, and he’s awkward to play against. Without him, Kriens are easier to anticipate and defend against. Barring a bit of Sessolo magic, I just can’t see how Kriens can break through the visitors’ lines.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy should be licking their lips ahead of this one, though. This is not a team that should be capable of pushing for promotion but, largely thanks to the lack of consistency from the promotion hopefuls, they are. More than that, they’re the only bloody team in the Challenge League that are actually playing well right now. They always seem to score enough goals to win games, nothing seems to rattle them, and they know how to control games. How they do that after losing Parapar and their manager, I don’t know – but they are.

They’ve picked a fine time to face Kriens, all things considered. Even with Spanish defender Albizua out – again – they look in good nick. They don’t lose many physical battles at the back, they’ve got a sprinkling of Super League quality in their midfield to make the difference where required, and they’ve got some bloody good maintainers too, ensuring that they don’t waste possession. Furthermore, they’ve got an attack that functions without being over-reliant on anybody. Lahiouel and Amdouni have been excellent this season, but it’s new Congolese striker Kamboleke that is making the headlines at the moment with four goals in six appearances since signing from Antwerp in Belgium.

Without having any real stars, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy operate like a star-studded team that are merely generously gracing this division with their presence as a team that should be in the Super League. That’s not the truth, but that’s how it looks at the moment. They look very composed in every area of the pitch, and I would be surprised if they failed to pick up at least a draw today. Full credit to Kodro for what he’s done with this group. I really doubted his appointment but he’s done seriously well thus far, and his team never ceases to amaze me. I think they’ll control this game, and get from it whatever they wish to; that’s how good they are right now.

Unlike most teams at this level, both of these teams know how to sit on a lead. Therefore, whichever one of them ends up scoring (if either), I don’t see either of them taking unnecessary risks. Therefore, this is a big under 2.5 goals game in my world. 

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Sint-Truiden vs KV Mechelen 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

Sint-Truiden are suffering from a bout of Covid-19 at the moment. Some of their affected players are not going to be majorly missed – but some are. Star Japanese striker Suzuki is one of them, for example, as is half of their back four in centre-back Teixeira and wonderkid full-back Cacace. I’d say that around half of their starting eleven are missing today, mostly through Covid-19 but also through general injuries. That’s why the odds on the away win are dropping as they are.

Without a win in their last six matches in all competitions, and with relegation from the Eerste Klasse looking far more possible than they’d like, it’s fair to say that these are bad times for Sint-Truiden. Boss Maes was appointed in December in a bid to stop the rot but there haven’t been enough signs of such, and the above misfortune is the latest to throw a spanner in the works. It was supposed to be a good campaign for them, hence the continued presence of Colidio, the signing of Suzuki, and the arrival of Cacace – but no. Instead, things look very ordinary at this club.

In addition to the players I’ve already reported as being out, they’re also without defensive midfield regular Durkin, his fellow midfielders Sakthon and Konate, and another defender – Caufriez. I’m not sayin it’d be impossible for them to get a positive result today, but what I am saying is that it looks increasingly likely that they won’t be able to. I know Mboyo still has moments of magic, and Colidio is still hard to deal with, but this team is seriously short on confidence right now. They’re not scoring goals, they’re conceding too easily, and thus they’re losing games. Against a motivated Mechelen, it’s hard to envision things getting better for the home team.

Mechelen are still very much in the hunt for a top eight finish, fancying their chances of playing in Europe next season. Who can blame them? Away from home, they’ve been one of the best teams in Belgium this season with only table-toppers Club Brugge having lost less matches than them. They’ve outsmarted plenty of superior teams on the road, and have executed brilliant counters along the way. If they were a bit better at the back, they’d be pushing for a top four spot, based on how well they’ve prepared for each game.

I can’t say that they’ve done anything outlandish this season, Mechelen, and nor have they found the next Ronaldo, although Vranckx has a lot of potential. It’s simply a case of things falling into place when chances were taken. I mean, who’d have thought they’d be able to keep [playmaker Defour in their squad as much as they have in 2021, given his notorious injury issues? He’s obviously far too good for both this club and this level but without being able to stay fit, he’s not able to go elsewhere and perform, which is a huge boost for Mechelen. They’re starting to get the best out of him by rotating him better, which has naturally made the team more effective. Then you’ve got de Camargo rolling back the years, Mrabti showing up more often than he has since his Djurgarden days, and Hairemans producing the best displays of his career. That’s how Mechelen have been so annoying to face this season.

Mostly, it’s about chemistry and work-rate though, and Mechelen have both in abundance. Having a few veterans around that still want to be considered as top players, and having a few promising youngsters keen to make an impression, has afforded Mechelen the right to upset the apple cart more often than not. Nothing seems to faze them, they create chances very easily, and they give a shit. What more can you really ask from a mid-table team than what boss Vrancken has already gotten from them this season?

Mechelen beat Sint-Truiden 2-0 at home earlier this season, and beat them 3-0 away from home last season. I’d argue that they’re more likely to win today than they were to win either of those matches, and with their 2021 displays remarkably consistent (ignore the form guide), I have no logical reason to do anything but back the away win at 7/5 today. It’s a fine time to face Sint-Truiden!

Verdict: KV Mechelen to win at 7/5.

Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva 

KO: 18:30 (UK time)

This is a derby of sorts, even with Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s relative sabbatical from the Ligat Ha’al title race over the past few years. There’s usually some bad blood in such games, and with the referees always favouring Maccabi, there are usually plenty of fireworks to be found. 

They’ve had some positive news over the past month or two, Hapoel. They’ve got their old owner back, who is more readily prepared to dip into her wallet. Subsequently, they’ve re-signed Elhamid to strengthen a pretty awful defence, which is another good move. The most recent good news was that star Portuguese playmaker, who has been crying about wanting to leave all season long, lately rumoured to be joining his former mentor Abukasis at Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv, has signed a new contract. That’s terrific news for Hapoel, really – I don’t mean to downplay it. Josue is easily one of the most gifted players I’ve seen at this club.

They’ve even got players back from injury now, Hapoel – Salalich, for example. They’ve not lost in four out of their last five games, and boss Levy helped them get one over on former manager Abukasis, which resulted in a top six finish ahead of the Ligat Ha’al split, so the Hapoel fans are pretty fucking chuffed right now. So they should be, too – it’s been a weird campaign for them, but one that deserved a positive end, and now they have one. A top two finish is completely out of the equation for them but third place is not. Fourth place might be enough for Europe, to be fair – I have to assume that the State Cup final will ultimately be played out between Maccabi Haifa and Maccabi Tel-Aviv!

Ok, that’s the good news done with; now for the bad news. Today they’re facing Maccabi Tel-Aviv, who are simply too good for them. They’ve already won twice in Be’er Sheva this season, one of which knocked them out of the State Cup. Hapoel have not won in Tel-Aviv in their last six attempts, which is a far cry from the Barda days in which they made a habit of winning in Tel-Aviv. Now they’re hoping to do so without their best player, Josue, who basically allows them to reach a level that they couldn’t even dream of without him. With defensive midfielder/makeshift centre-back Bareiro, and midfielder Keltins both out too, an almighty hole has appeared in the middle of the pitch for Hapoel, which is a colossal problem. That defence can’t keep a cow out, even with Elhamid back, so they need midfield to be able to endure – and they barely have one today. I think they’re in trouble, to put it bluntly.

Maccabi have problems of their own but they have a lot of resources and a big squad so absentees seldom hit them as hard as it does other Israeli clubs. I mean, how long have they been without leading goal-scorer Cohen for? Most of 2021, surely? It’s not changed anything, though – they still keep winning. Golasa and Pesic are also out but I’m simply not concerned. As long as the balance of the squad is intact, Maccabi will function. They tend to rely more on the collective than the singular, basically. That’s why they win as many titles as they do.

For me, it’s far more important to note that Portuguese full-back Geraldes is back today than anything else because he restores balance to the side. He was brought back to Israel in order to be the right-sided version of Saborit i.e. a full-back that has no problem doubling-up as a winger. Maccabi do not have orthodox width, you see. They’re better at overloading teams, and using their superior creators to pick the right passes to play players in. Having full-backs as the wingers ticks a lot of boxes for them, and it’s not a coincidence that Maccabi suddenly started doing a lot better after he returned. With those two either side, Hernandez organising the back four, Biton/Peretz/Rikan running the show in midfield, and Ben-Haim drifting, I really couldn’t care less as to who plays instead of Pesic/Cohen because the afore-mentioned will make their job easy, whoever it is. 

Therefore, I’m inclined to believe that Maccabi will be comfortable in this derby, especially with Hapoel likely to go down to ten men at some stage. They should control proceedings, take one or two of their chances, and ultimately win the game. At 22/25, backing them to beat the -1 Asian Handicap just makes sense to me here, really.

Verdict: Maccabi Tel-Aviv to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 22/25.

Racing Club Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

Losing against PSG is not an uncommon thing for a French team to experience nowadays, but the manner of Lyon’s defeat against the reigning Ligue 1 champions prior to the international break was utterly depressing. To think that they’ve done so much good this season only to begin to crumble as the season unwinds is very sad. I can only hope that they’re well-rested after the break because the lack of possible rotation in this squad means that more fractured displays are to be expected from Lyon.

They’re just dropping off a bit too much, Lyon. I should feel confident to back them today, especially with Medina out for the hosts, but I don’t. I just think that they’re tiring, really. It’s what happens when a big club makes progressive strides in a bid to return to the top level in their country but don’t really have the depth to keep it up. That’s precisely what is happening at Manchester United and AC Milan right now too, so Lyon certainly have some company in that respect! They should view this campaign rather positively, Lyon’s fans, as they’ve shifted some deadwood, and established some serious consistency and a healthy squad balance along the way. I doubt they’ll be patient enough to see things that way, knowing their fans, but they absolutely should; this is the best they’ve been in ten years.

It’s hard for me to be confident about Lyon’s chances tonight though, because I know that fatigue is going to lead them conceding goals. Algerian centre-back Benlamri was brought back from his Middle East adventure in order to help Marcelo (age) and Denayer (injuries) out with their respective periods of absence, but now Benlamri is out. It’s not the end of the world for Lyon, but it just makes it that bit harder to keep them fresh, and that makes it easier to score against them. They’re lucky enough to have two terrific midfielders in front of them for protection in Mendes and Guimaraes though.

Still, Lens are a tough team to contain, and Lyon are going to feel it today. You can look at the return of Cameroonian live wire Ganago to the Lens setup as one example, who excels in counterattacking setups, or the simple fact that Kakuta is on the pitch and he’s in ‘unplayable’ mode this season. Lens have good aerial threats, good dribblers, and a bundle of energy; containing them is not at all easy to do. Two months ago, I might have considered backing Lyon to do so but not tonight. 

I do think that Lyon will win it though. Lens have been amazing since promotion from Ligue 2, having prepared for the season ahead meticulously. They invested their money shrewdly, and all of their signings have paid huge dividends, few moreso than Argentinian centre-back Medina, who is already attracting a lot of attention around Europe, and rightly so too. The youngster has organised the Lens defence brilliantly, adapting to French football very easily, and it speaks volumes for his quality that Lens tend to concede a lot of goals when he’s out! Don’t forget that they’re still a Ligue 2 team at the core of things, and that shows the most when Medina is not on the pitch.

If Lens are to get something from this match, then they’re going to need to score lots of goals. That won’t faze Lens; they set out to do that anyway, at least in 2021. The attacking setup that Haise has assembled is really very impressive, and not just because Kakuta is running the show. No, it’s because they’ve got players for every situation. Sotoca and Banza, for example, are nightmares to deal with in the air whereas Muinga and Ganago are horrendous to deal with on counters. I mean, Jean hasn’t had a great season but is still a really tricky customer because of his quick feet, vision, and movement. This is a squad that is laden with attacking options, basically – and they’re not bad from set pieces either!

The problem Lens have in 2021 is the same problem as their opponents tonight, though – fatigue. For different reasons, they also cannot really afford to rotate because the quality gap between different players in the same positions in their squad is simply too large. They’re still able to outscore teams at the moment but it’s taking a gargantuan effort in order to do so as their defence has been flayed open too many times, and will basically be Christians to the lions today without Medina. They’ve got a real winning mentality at Lens though, so I would not be too quick to write them off.

Essentially, I don’t believe that either team is in any kind of position to walk into this game and expect an easy win. They’re both going to have to sweat for it because they’re both making too many errors at the back, and both teams need to go for the win. At some stage, I expect this game to become very open, and when it does, we really should see a lot of goals. Lyon are rightly favourites, and they really should win it, but I prefer over 3 goals at 11/10 as opposed to 5/6 on the away win.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 11/10.

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad

KO: 20:30 (UK time)

Over the past few years, I’ve often worried for Athletic in derbies. They’ve not been mentally strong enough to do well in them, and they’ve not been good goal-scorers for quite some time now. Subsequently, the likes of Real Sociedad have really had an edge on them because they’ve been mentally stronger in such duels.

For this Copa del Rey final though, the tide has turned. Real Sociedad’s European campaign has not only tired them out but also led to lots of niggling injuries in their squad. They look easier to score against, especially for fast teams that press hard (like Athletic), and they’re not scoring as many goals. By contrast, Athletic look awesome under Marcelino, somehow scoring goals on a regular basis without any good strikers. They’ve handled bigger tests better than they’ve handled little tests, Athletic, and have generally found ways to win. This is an incredibly resilient and confident team under the streetwise manager, and that makes me think that they’ve got what it takes to win this final.

Of course, it’s comedy gold that this final is even being played right now, a fortnight or so ahead of the Copa del Rey final for this season. Tonight’s match against Real Sociedad is actually the Copa del Rey final for last season. The Spanish FA tend to struggle to work out where finals will be played because unless certain teams are in it, they’re not so willing to host the event. This final will be played in Andalusia, which is the opposite end of the country for the Basques, which is pretty ludicrous really. Pamplona, Zaragoza, Vigo, Coruna, and Barcelona would have all made far more sense but what do I know? 

It’s bizarre that these two teams should meet in the final though. Athletic have always taken this tournament seriously, which is something I’ve generally inferred as them wanting to show the rest of Spain what the Basques are capable of, but Real Sociedad have never shared that love of this competition, often making an early exit. Credit must go to boss Alguacil for making it happen, really. He’s brought good players into the club, and really gotten the best out of those that are there, despite losing some good players along the way.

This is not a good time for Real Sociedad to be playing in a final though. I thought they looked drained against Manchester United in the UEFA Europa League, which was then followed by an erratic defeat against Granada, before utter humiliation at Anoeta as overrated Barcelona ran out 6-1 winners. The international break might have done them some good, but that’s not going to magically make them all better ahead of the Vasco derby. They need someone to stand up and lead this team on the pitch, like a Xabi Prieto or Inigo Martinez (now at Athletic) from the past. The only one that can do that is Illarramendi, and he can barely get into the team nowadays.

Subsequently, unless Athletic encourage them to play well, I can’t see Real Sociedad enjoying this final at all. They don’t strike me as a team that has the right mentality for the big occasions, and nor are they a team that has the capacity to change their playing style. Athletic should be able to not just anticipate them, but both stop and hurt them simultaneously. Athletic look sharp, confident, and unbelievably resolute, not to mention clinical. How Marcelino has made them clinical is utterly beyond me, to be honest. Like I said before, they have no striker that knows where the goal is; just some hard-working target men like Villalibre. 

Still, Berenguer, Williams, Muniain, and Lopez have stepped up to the plate, and Athletic look far better for it. They’ve even started to defend more intelligently, control games better, and thus have been extremely hard to beat. In short, it takes something special to beat Los Leones nowadays and Real Sociedad just don’t have that right now. Oyarzabal, Isak, Januzaj, and Silva all can do it but honestly look a little too fatigued for my liking right now, at least when it comes to their mindsets. 

Finals are generally decided by which teams are stronger mentally. At this moment in time, there’s no doubt in my mind that that’s Athletic. They look fitter, fresher, and hungrier, so at 83/100, I’m backing Athletic to win with draw no bet.

Verdict: Athletic Club to win with draw no bet at 83/100.