TFT Issue 3393!

FC Basel vs Vaduz

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

I think this might just be the healthiest FC Basel squad I’ve seen this season, you know. That isn’t going to change much consistency-wise because their problems run far deeper than that, but it’s far easier to win games with better players than without them.

I still don’t really understand the Stocker situation, though. He was told to go on holiday by boss Sforza, then the fans protested in the streets of Basel, and he was reinstated in the squad. He’s not injured anymore, and yet he’s not featured since.Sforza hasn’t been sacked, and Stocker hasn’t been cut loose, so what’s the resolution here? It’s as if they’re desperate to have both but there’s no real way back after an altercation like that. That in itself is a problem. They’re lucky enough to have good central midfielders in general so it’s the one area of their squad they can cope with the odd absentee in. As far as the future goes though, I really don’t know what is going to happen.

From a 1×2 perspective, I would not bother touching this game. Yes, FC Basel are the better team but they’re horribly inconsistent for a variety of reasons. They’ve changed managers, they’ve had injury problems, and the bottom line is that they’re simply not that good anymore. Quite a lot of their starting eleven is but they’re hardly got any depth whatsoever so fatigue is going to play a part in the remainder of the Super League campaign, which is why I can’t trust this team to do as they should. There’s no doubt in my mind that they should beat rock-bottom Vaduz – but you won’t find me betting on it.

I do trust them to score goals though. One of the few things they’ve got right in the transfer market was to turn Cabral’s loan move permanent. He’s not as good as Leeds United seem to think he is, but he’s too good for this level. When you have a forward like that, with the finishing and movement he has, you’re always going to have a chance. Then factor in the incisive passing of Kasami, Frei, Zuffi, Abrashi (when fit), and Stocker (if ever selected again), and you’ve got a lethal combination. If they need to go wider, they’ve got talented Kosovan dribbler Zhegrova to call upon. They’ve even got a new midfielder in Palacios too, and Bunjaku is considered to be something of a wonderkid too, so as long as Cabral is up front, FC Basel will score goals.

Defensively, I’m not big on what they have to offer. I say that both in terms of having a proper defensive midfielder (preferably one that isn’t Xhaka), and also because there’s no consistency in their back four/five. Klose brings experience, but also slowness. Van der Werff and Comert have lots of potential but I almost think they’d be better in a back four because there’s no real cohesion between them and Klose. That, fused with erratic Lindner in net will always lead to conceding goals, and I suspect that even Vaduz can capitalise upon such here.

The visitors may be bottom of the Super League table but there’s really nothing in it. Other than Young Boys Bern being too good for the rest (and even they aren’t as good as the statistics suggest) there’s no real quality gaps in Switzerland anymore, at least not in this division. Vaduz can beat most teams in it on their day; it’s more about circumstances than anything. Vaduz have good days and bad days; that’s just how it goes. The main problem for Liechtenstein’s finest is that their defence belongs at Challenge League level. It didn’t matter back then because they had an attack that’s too strong for that level – but that’s not the case here. Keep in mind that rapid forward Coulibaly was missing for lots of the campaign, and he can’t really be replaced.

With Coulibaly back though, Cicek remembering where the goal is, and youngster di Gusto doing well in 2021, Vaduz have more of a goal threat than the league table would have you believe. They’re a very attacking team because that’s where they excel, and I like their link-up play a lot. They’re a bit more direct than anything, but they are good at playing that way. Mentally, they’re a tough team to deal with; it’s just their defending that makes them suspect.

Vaduz do have problems with absentees here though. Gasser and Obexer – two familiar faces at the back – are both out. Another defender, Hug, is a doubt, and midfield battler Luchinger is out too. Their attack is still in a functional state but their defence really isn’t. If FC Basel actually focus here, they could batter Vaduz. However, I’ve seen them lose focus way too often this season, and Vaduz are fast and fit enough to trouble them on the break so I’ll avoid the 1×2 market, instead choosing to back over 3 goals at 23/20.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 23/20.

FC Copenhagen vs Randers 

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

Things are not the same without Solbakken at FC Copenhagen. The Zealand club has truly embraced the idea of playing without any intention of keeping a clean sheet. They have terrific defenders on paper, but all of them have seen better days. They look slow in the conventional sense, and slow at reacting to situations, so keep in mind before backing this team that they’re very likely to concede in just about every game they play in right now.

The above is why their form guide fluctuates as much as it does. They actually lost away from home against Randers prior to the Superligaen split but it means nothing to me, really. This is not a team that will consistently win or lose games because they’re one of Denmark’s best teams with the most suspect defence they’ve had in a long time. However, the fact that they’re still doing as well as they are is testament to how strong this attack is, at least for the present. There are many that are convinced that Wind will be playing in the German Bundesliga next season, and I can believe it – he’s very good. 

Wind is one part of this superb attack, though. Wilczek is still a class act; his reading of the game is fantastic. Daramy is fast, and happy to run the channels with intelligence and decent decision-making. Fischer is naturally a brilliant winger, even with his typical injury problems in mind, and Falk is fast too, not that he’s especially good; just experienced. Now they’ve got Lerager back to help Biel and Zeca in making things happen, and that makes containing the capital club a complete nightmare. This is a team that can outscore any Superligaen side, in essence.

Opponents Randers are not an exception to the rule. They’ve done really well to finish in the top six, although it could be argued that it’s mostly borne out of the fact that Denmark only has three good teams nowadays. There are a couple of ‘maybe’ clubs like AGF and Aalborg BK that usually claim one of the places, but the rest is pretty random really, and Okore’s departure has ensured that Aalborg are a bit too poor to make the grade this time around. Randers have profited from it, and fair play to them because it’s one of the weaker Randers teams I’ve seen over the years.

Randers being fighters is not something new. They’re very annoying to play against for that reason. This isn’t a particularly good team though. I know Kamara has had a good season, and that both Greve and Hammershoy-Mistrati have contributed significantly too. This is still a bang average team with a few favourable physical attributes though. They’re irksome but not particularly good, in short. 

It’s at this stage of the season where things begin to get ‘real’ for the top teams. Winning the title may be beyond FC Copenhagen but they’re not going to want to finish ten points behind their bitter rivals, Brondby. Therefore, I expect renewed focus from this team today whereas Randers – well, with all due respect to them, they’re here to enjoy the ride, and see where it takes them. I’m actually inclined to believe that they’ll rest players ahead of their DBU Pokalen game three days from now as a Cup run this season would be harmless, and more attainable than finishing higher in the table. 

Either way, I expect FC Copenhagen to take this game more seriously, and with the quality at their disposal, I can’t overlook odds of 21/20 on the home win.

Verdict: FC Copenhagen to win at 21/20.

FC Midtjylland vs Brondby

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Brondby have started to look a little tired of late. They’re still working well enough as a unit to pick up points, exploiting FC Copenhagen’s poor defending and OB’s poor…well, everything. Against any team with a degree of organisation though, they’ve really struggled, which actually resulted in defeat at this very stadium back in February. I think they’re in for a similarly tough game tonight.

They have an excellent starting eleven, the table-toppers, but do lack in depth. I admire how much Frederiksen has gotten out of this group this season but nothing lasts forever, and a lack of rotation has left Brondby a shade predictable. Factor in how many games Lindstrom played for Denmark U21 recently, and that he’s been one of their best players this season, and suddenly the reasons to doubt Brondby become more numerous. They’ve still got hard-working, physical forwards that will trouble defenders, and their confident dribblers in midfield are not easy to handle either. Is there enough about them to score goals against the reigning champions tonight though? I don’t see it.

Keep in mind that midfield all-rounder Vigen is already ruled out, and whilst Riveros remains in the physio’s room, their defence is a bit more suspect than the statistics would have you believe. They’re physically strong enough to contain teams, but aren’t so good at adjusting to deal with unpredictable threats mid-game. This is still a really good Brondby team with excellent team spirit and a good approach to playing football, but they’re not really what I’d call a title contender, not without more depth.

Two months ago, I’d have feared Brondby more than I currently do. I think FC Midtjylland were looking decidedly rusty earlier in 2021, and Brondby performing as a unit are generally quite good. However, as time has gone by, fatigue has begun to hit the Zealand heavyweights whereas the same cannot be said of their hosts. FC Midtjylland have depth, and thus are able to rotate, and that’s what I anticipate being the key difference between these two title hopefuls.

I can’t say that FC Midtjylland have had too many tough challenges lately. They were able to hammer a shocking OB side in the DBU Pokalen, and later destroyed Vejle 5-0 too. I thought they should have taken their chances better against FC Copenhagen away, but a 0-0 draw in that fixture can never be considered as a bad result for the away team. For me, it’s nice to see two things; one is the confidence returning to the team, and the other is the more convincing attacking play.

Like I said above – earlier in 2021, this team wasn’t playing well. I remember watching them host AC Horsens and I still don’t know how they won. It was limp, they were timid, and the chances they gave away through not tracking runners was really poor. However, they still managed to beat Brondby during that period, even despite their various issues. Since then, they’ve improved a lot, and they look more dangerous because of it. This is still a tough game for them, of course, but it’s one that they really should be able to win, all things considered.

I see more depth and more match-winners in the squad of the reigning champions than I do in that of Brondby’s squad. Their injury problems are lessening with only Evander from their regulars now definitely out – even Iceland’s Anderson may return. 

Verdict: FC Midtjylland to win at 9/10.

St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig

KO: 19:30 (UK time)

This will be a bit of a unique test for St. Pauli in 2021. They’ve blitzed a lot of teams, simply outscoring them, but they’re yet to have to properly break a team down, which is what they’ll get from Braunschweig tonight.

I daresay folk will class the visitors as ripe for the plucking just because they’re near the foot of the table, but I actually think they’ve done really well in 2021. It’s taken good teams to beat them this calendar year, which is a far cry from the naive way in which they began their campaign. Two signings later, Braunschweig now look a very solid team indeed, and one that is very hard to score against. Behrendt has shored up their back four, and Ji has given them an attacking presence that I doubt they’ve had for a lot of years; probably since they were last in the Bundesliga. He’s helped to make Proschwitz etc. better, and even Kobylanski is benefitting from such.

Those signings have re-energised this team, and with plenty of positive results under their belts, there’s no fear in this squad. They can see light at the end of the relegation tunnel, and have given themselves a far better chance of avoiding the drop than I’d have given them some months ago, when losing was simply guaranteed on most weekends. Now they look assured, organised, consistent, and no longer desperate for wins. Draws are back to being useful outcomes for them as opposed to needing to go for the jugular. That makes them very hard to deal with. I would not take them lightly; that’s my point.

Having said all that though, St. Pauli look really good in 2021, albeit for different reasons. They’ve loaned Egyptian forward Marmoush from the division above, and have got Bundesliga level attacker Burgstaller back from injury too. That combination has afforded St. Pauli an attack that should be playing at a higher level. I mean, on their own, Kyereh and Makienok are nothing to write home about. They’re handfuls (for different reasons) but not clinical, and nor were they effective earlier in the season.

However, now someone with the brilliant movement of Burgstaller and Marmoush is in the squad, especially the former, who contributes heavily to goal creation, nor just scoring, St. Pauli are able to utilise Kyereh and Makienok better. They’ve been a lot more effective because of it. Dittgen and Zalazar have naturally thrived with such good movement ahead of them too. It’s a completely different team to the one that was seen battling relegation earlier in the season, as many managers have said in press conferences in 2021. They play with more confidence, more tenacity, and score goals far more easily.

That’s why I believe that, even with Japanese creator Miyaichi still injured, St. Pauli can break their resolute opponents down tonight. I really do think it’ll be one hell of a slog for them (unless they bag early in the game), but St. Pauli are ruthless in front of goal, they’re confident, and they’re pressing teams hard to make them uncomfortable. That should be enough to see them win this game, even if their defence still gives too many chances away. At the end of the day, St. Pauli are simply the more clinical outfit.

Therefore, the home win at 4/5 suits me just fine here – but no handicaps. 

Verdict: St. Pauli to win at 4/5.