TFT Issue 3396!

Hannover 96 vs Wurzburger Kickers

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

And just like that, Hannover 96 are back where they were before, scoring a lot of goals, and conceding a lot too. Whilst they’re as random as they are, it’s hard to take them seriously as a team that’s supposed to be in the equation for promotion.

On the positive side of things, at least they’re not Nurnberg, who have a similar level of quality but somehow find themselves dragged into the relegation battle each season. Hannover 96 at least have some passion, after all. However, when it comes to efficiency, they’re lacking. I’d like to be positive about their draw with Hamburger SV last time out but all that proves is that they’re just as random as the team that almost always bottles every big occasion nowadays, which is probably more of an insult than anything.

Hannover 96 being better than Wurzburger Kickers is not something to be amazed at. Any follower of the Bundesliga 2 could tell you that – or even anyone just looking at the league table. Whether they can prove it or not is something I’m somewhat undecided on at this point in time. Part of me questions if they have the motivation to do it, given that their campaign is listing close to scuppers – and yet they won’t be dragged into the relegation battle. Are they efficient enough to be trusted to handicap Wurzburger Kickers? I wouldn’t say so. The talent is there but the rest isn’t, really.

Furthermore, you have to appreciate that this game is, like most in 2021, life or death for relegation-threatened Wurzburger Kickers. Truth be told, they’ve probably already goners by now as their mid-season gambles haven’t paid off like they’d hoped they would. I can’t fault them there, really – I thought they’d made good acquisitions but just like Dynamo Dresden last season, luck wasn’t on their side when it came to integrating the newcomers. Also like Dynamo Dresden, they’re probably going to be relegated because of it.

I don’t see any lack of spirit or fight in the Wurzburger Kickers squad. I watched them scaring SV Sandhausen at the weekend, not that it got them anywhere. The home team were panicking at the end but held on for an important three points as Wurzburger Kickers let yet another winnable game slip them by. They’re not getting anywhere near as much wrong as the league table would have you believe that they are, but the things they are getting wrong, they’re being punished for. That’s the harsh reality of playing at this level, I’m afraid, and Wurzburger Kickers just don’t have enough quality nor experience for it.

I believe the visitors will give this game a go, and that Hannover 96 are kamikaze enough to give them a goal or two, but I’d be a bit surprised to see the visitors emerge with three points here. Whatever the case may be, I can only see this game being a high-scoring affair, and thus backing over 3 appeals to me.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 23/20.

AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs AS Roma

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I toyed with backing Ajax here but the odds seemed a bit short. I like this Ajax team more than any of their others for a lot of years now because there’s a nicer balance to it, more resilience, and more importantly, more flexibility too. For example, signing Haller up front may not have set many tongues wagging but he’s a good target man, and it’s indicative that Ajax have learnt that they cannot win every game by playing their infamous style. For me, that denotes intelligence, something that Ajax haven’t demonstrated as a club for some time now, which ultimately culminates in progression.

Still, beating Roma is tough; it’s probably their toughest challenge in the UEFA Europa League this season, actually. This is not the AS Roma of old, after all, who played very controlling, steady football under Capello all of those years ago, relying on their individuals’ brilliance to win them games. No, this is a Fonseca team now, which means they’re fast, confident, clever, creative, and just want to score goals. That’s what they’re good at, and they’ve got a good squad with which to do it. That’s why the odds didn’t do much for me, at least not to begin with.

It may not look like much on paper, but they damaged Shakhtar Donetsk an awful lot in the preceding round, which surprised me. I know that Fonseca knows his old team well but it was too easy for AS Roma in both legs – and that’s a good team that they beat. It was one that attacked a lot, created a lot, and were very hard to stop because of their quick triangle passing and brilliant movement – but Roma handled it brilliantly. I won’t say that they nullified it, but they caused more problems than they received, which is how they outscored Shakhtar as they did. There was no reason to believe that they can’t do the same thing tonight in The Netherlands – until the team news was announced.

With a lot of players out for the visitors (half of their back four, two of their most skilful attackers etc.), it’s easier to understand why the Ajax odds are as skinny as they are – and I actually want to back them now. Roma are not in a position whereby they have enough about them to cope with so many absentees, not in a tough away game, which is why I changed my mind from backing goals to backing the home win. AS Roma still have quality themselves, of course. They’re a bit older and more experienced than their hosts, and are very hard to unsettle. Scoring against them isn’t all that challenging, but doing enough to set them out of their stride is seriously challenging nowadays. Fonseca’s best work with this team hasn’t been introducing this effective attacking style, but moreso instilling a level of mental strength and discipline that has benefited the team hugely. 

The reason Roma struggled so much in the past was their mentalities. It was too easy for them to have men unnecessarily sent off in tough games or when decisions didn’t go their way. That seldom happens nowadays. When they concede goals, it only focuses them more on getting back into games. However, with so many out, I can’t see a happy conclusion to the night’s affair, to be frank. It would have been an amazing game with both teams untainted by injuries, but Roma have been hit hard – and I expect it to cost them.

Verdict: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to win at 19/20.