TFT Issue 3397!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Vitesse Arnhem vs ADO Den Haag 

KO: (UK time)

Teams are simply finding it too easy to beat ADO Den Haag right now. Their heads have gone, they’ve lost some of the players they brought in to save them, and now big Kramer – their only real route to goal – is out too. It’s hard to imagine them recording a positive result in Arnhem tonight with that in mind. Vitesse may be the most boring team in the Eredivisie, but even they should be able to win this game by a couple of goals.

Verdict: Vitesse Arnhem to win at 11/50.

Featured game

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Thun 

KO: (UK time)

The more time elapses, the more I become impressed by Lausanne-Ouchy. I never thought Kodro would do as well as this but he is. I think his team have thrived by being listed as mid-table fodder i.e. nothing is expected of them. Whilst other teams have come and gone, they’ve remained consistently good throughout, and now need to be taken seriously as a promotion candidate.

I mean, Grasshopper Zurich are bottlers, Winterthur have all but ruled themselves out of contention, Aarau are too inconsistent, FC Schaffhausen’s heads have gone, and FC Thun have had too many setbacks in the transfer market, so why shouldn’t Lausanne-Ouchy push for Super League football? They’re an incredibly settled and consistent group, tactically astute, and haven’t lost many players at all. Indeed, those they have lost have been replaced seriously well. This is a very well-oiled machine, in short.

I like how they don’t over-rely on any of their players too. The usual situation for clubs at this level – particularly those that are over-achieving – is that they’ve got someone that is far better than the rest, who will carry the team as and when required. At Lausanne-Ouchy, that’s simply not the case. The goals are shared out, the assists are shared out, and everybody does their duty at both ends. It’s a really harmonious setup, and that certainly helps in making things happen consistently well. I just don’t have a reason to doubt such a resolute and confident team right now.

For those of you that don’t know, FC Thun are the team that I like the most in Switzerland. They play fearless attacking football, always seek to entertain, and sometimes win, sometimes draw, and sometimes lose! They operate on a shoestring budget, selling anybody that is bidded for, and do a terrific job of picking up unknown youngsters and turning them into good players. The likes of Lauper and Spielmann, both at Bernese rivals Young Boys Bern in the Super League, both played for FC Thun, as did Burgy, currently on loan in the Bundesliga 2. 

The philosophy of the club meant that, when relegated, they lost players like Tosetti and Munsy, purely because other clubs were interested. The end result of players moving on was that they needed a striker and wingers. It took a while for them to solve the striker situation, eventually recruiting Kyeremateng from Stoke City, and that’s only partially worked. The wingers situation was easier to solve as they had da Silva and Schwizer on loan in the Challenge League last season, so they simply decided to play them in the FC Thun team when their loan deals expired, and both impressed. They also re-signed a former winger of theirs along the way, Dzonlagic.

Of course, when Grasshopper Zurich’s Portuguese manager saw that FC Thun had a star Portuguese winger in the making, he then went and bought him earlier in 2021. That coincided with injuries to other wingers and ultimately FC Thun were left looking very short of creativity. Nothing has really changed much on that front; the team simply doesn’t do enough collectively to create chances now. It’s not through a lack of effort; FC Thun always graft. They’re just not good enough, and it’s showing. 

The above, fused with the fact that FC Thun have never paid much attention to defending, leads to issues. Tonight’s visitors tend to field midfielders in defence on a regular basis so conceding goals is a rarity for them at any level. Now they’re not scoring enough either, they’re not only sitting ducks, but jeopardising their promotion push. I can’t see an FC Thun side in such a position heading to Lausanne and avoiding defeat here, to be frank, not after the home team just won away from home against SC Kriens in a professional, thorough manner. 

To me, it simply makes sense to back the home win here.

Verdict: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win at 11/10.

Additional games

Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar

KO: (UK time)

For my money, it was in the reversal of this fixture when Macarthur FC finally came to life. They made lots of signings ahead of their maiden campaign, as they had to, and some were very good acquisitions. I had high hopes for them, but despite a good derby win over Western Sydney, they really slumped after that, delivering too many pedestrian displays where they barely troubled the opposing goalkeeper. It was in Brisbane when they finally executed a truly tactical victory, comfortably swatting away Roar’s intensity whilst countering regularly, ultimately winning the match. 

You have to keep in mind that that win came when Roar were flying too. Since then, Roar have predictably dropped off a lot and Macarthur have gone from strength to strength, enough so for me to expect a repeat of the game in Brisbane in Sydney today. I think that the timing of this fixture really helps Macarthur, who have not only done well lately but controlled games and converted chances really well too. Even with veteran full-back Franjic out today – whom they relied almost exclusively on for their first few matches of the season – I’m not concerned for the home team.

They were comfortable enough in dealing with Glory’s attack lately, and they have one of the more dangerous A-League attacks on their books. Macarthur simply put them on the back foot with good pressing, used the ball better, took their chances, and then sat on it properly. Tactically, it was a masterful display, and even though Glory haven’t been at their best of late, I still think it was yet another sign of Macarthur’s growing maturity. This is still a new team so it’s close to impossible to gauge how long they can keep playing at such a high level but for now, they look like a top five team. Time will tell if it lasts.

Roar are one of the weaker A-League teams on paper. What they lack in quality though, they make up for in tactics, intensity, and mental strength. No team has an easy ride against them, as a somewhat cavalier Western Sydney found out last time around, drawing 1-1 in a game that they had very comfortable spells in but also gave some gilt-edged chances away too. After a tremendous start, I thought Western Sydney sat back way too early, misplaced too many passes, and invited pressure upon themselves. Roar duly equalised after missing some sitters, but couldn’t find a way to get a winner as only then did Western Sydney up the ante.

Roar can make life uncomfortable for teams by pressing and being hard to break down, but they lack a genuine goal threat. To be fair to them, they’ve now got McDonald back from injury, who is their best finisher – but even he’s just the best of a bad bunch. Wenzel-Halls is a brilliant engine but is not a natural finisher in the slightest. Mebrahtu had one good season in Czechia when it came to goals but other than that, has generally struggled with finishing his entire life. Champness is still yet to score for Roar, although he was easily their best player against Western Sydney. They’re just not natural goal-scorers, Roar – it’s that simple, really, and that’s despite the number of chances they tend to create.

The team news is good for Roar, as both Aldred and Gillesphey also return, not just McDonald. Only Hingert is out now, assuming the afore-mentioned play. Gillesphey was only suspended so he should play. Aldred had a ‘secret’ injury so whether he actually plays or not here remains to be seen. My concern with Roar last time out was that when Western Sydney did actually go at them, Roar had no answers. They didn’t have the conviction to deploy their high press properly; often it was only Danzaki and Champness doing it, which naturally didn’t work. Roar were allowed back into the game; they didn’t earn it, if that makes sense. It’s most unlike them to play that way too, so I can only assume that there’s some fatigue creeping in, and perhaps a touch of a demoralisation, given the amount of time that has elapsed since their last win.

Either way, I think this is a great time to face Roar, and it’s a great time to back Macarthur.

Verdict: Macarthur FC to win at 21/20.

Hamburger SV vs Darmstadt 98

KO: (UK time)

You know, on the back of two seriously impressive wins against top very good teams, namely Bochum and Heidenheim, I actually wondered if Hamburger were back in business. When they went 3-0 up in Hannover last time out, I really began to wonder if this would be this year after consistently bottling it for ages. Silly me! They naturally crumbled, gave three second-half goals away, and drew 3-3 to remind everybody as to what they’re actually really about.

So now we’re back to Square One when it comes to trying to assess which Hamburger will show up tonight. Will it be the one that is actually the best team in the division? Or the one that looks like it’s barely good enough to stay in it? Your guess is as good as mine, really. I can’t even imagine how much this club has frustrated its fans over the years because they’ve ticked every box when it’s come to being promotion material yet here they still are, floundering in the battle to go up – again.

In the club’s defence, I actually think they’ve been really inventive in trying different approaches to get the club back where it belongs – the Bundesliga. They’ve tried playing with a squad of Bundesliga level players; didn’t work. Then it was the turn of recruiting players that had dominated at this level before whilst being managed by a Bundesliga level manager; that failed too. Now the attempt is trying to roll with a manager that has a proven track record of building team spirit at clubs rather than managing top players, and that’s got a similar success rate to those before him at the moment.

I can’t really explain why Hamburger are the way they are; it’s just the reality. They’ve got the best squad in the division and the least consistency of any team in it. I see match-winners throughout their squad, particularly in the final third, but you can only get promoted from this level if you play as one – and Hamburger don’t do that enough. When they’re good, they’re unplayable, but when they’re not at the races, any team at this level can beat them. That’s why I am loath to say that they’ll beat Darmstadt 98 tonight; I simply don’t know which Hamburger will show up.

I mean, Darmstadt 98 have had a surprisingly poor campaign themselves. Instead of being dark horses for promotion, they’ve found themselves sucked into a relegation dogfight – well, until they recently realised that, and started winning games! I rate this team really highly though, at least when it comes to scoring goals. Dursun up front has proven for two seasons now just how good he is in front of goal; he almost left pre-season, and almost certainly will at the end of this season. Seydel has been good, although is rather predictably injured again. They’ve got the potential to offer a lot when getting forward but haven’t shown it enough until recently.

Now they’re in a more secure place, they can head to Hamburg and play more cautiously. I think that makes sense, given that Palsson is back to sit in front of the back four, and given how good they can be on the break. The problem with that approach is that their defence cannot contain their hosts but they are good enough at the other end to make this game interesting. Despite their defensive deficiencies, Darmstadt 98 are actually rather annoying to beat in situations like these. This is a team that has perfected the art of tenacity over the years, even if they seem to have forgotten some of it this season. I would not bank on Hamburger beating them tonight, to put it bluntly, much as though they absolutely should.

Instead, I expect this type of match to yield goals. I refuse to believe that either team can sit on any lead that they garner, and it’s not as if the home team can afford to do anything but win the encounter. Darmstadt 98 might settle for a point if it’s still on the table at the end of the game but Bundesliga 2 football is not played with any real fear anyway, so I expect them to have a go too. Ultimately, I can’t help but be seduced by the odds available on goals tonight. 

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 109/100.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Australian A-League:

Macarthur FC – Franjic is absent.
Brisbane Roar – Aldred and Gillesphey return. Hingert is absent.

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

AS Eupen – Bushiri, Cools, and Magnee are absent.
Standard de Liege – Vanheusden is absent. Oulare is a doubt.

Czechia Liga 1:

Pardubice – Bohac, Cadu, and Petran are absent.
Bohemians 1905 – Hulka, Novak, Pokorny, Pulkrab, Ugwu, and Vales are absent. Vacek is a doubt.

Danish Superligaen:

OB – Fenger is absent.
Vejle – Faghir, Gundelund, and Ojala are absent. Briggs is a doubt.

English Premier League:

Fulham – Cairney is absent.
Wolverhampton Wanderers – Jimenez, Marcal, amd Jonny are absent. Moutinho is a doubt.

French Ligue 1:

Metz – Cabit, Niane, Nugette, Pajot, and Tchinbembe are absent.
Lille OSC – Celik, David, Djalo, Pied, and Yazici are absent.

German Bundesliga:

Arminia Bielefeld – Rehnen is absent.
SC Freiburg – Demirovic, Grifo, Holer, and Thiede are absent. Jeong is a doubt.

German Bundesliga 2:

Hamburger SV – David, Kwarteng, Mickel, Leistner, and Onana are absent.
Darmstadt 98 – Seydel, Stanilewicz, and Stritzel are absent. 

Dutch Eredivisie:

Vitesse Arnhem – No absentees.
ADO Den Haag – Janmaat, Kramer, Zuiverloon, Bijen, and del Fabro are absent.

Portuguese Liga 1:

Portimonense – Lucas is absent.
Vitoria Guimaraes – Amoah is absent.

Romanian Liga 1:

Voluntari – No news.
Botosani – No news.
Dinamo Bucharest Serban, Bejan, Rauta, and Anton are absent. Esanu, Achim, Radu, and Filip are doubts.
Academica Clinceni – No absentees.
Arges – No news.
Chindia – No news.
Astra Giurgiu – No news.
UTA Arad – Isac, Peteleu, Benga, and Roger are absent. Tescan is a doubt.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Huesca Ontiveros, Silva, and Valera are absent.
Elche – No absentees.

Swiss Challenge League:

Chiasso Affolter, Dixon, Pavlovic, and Strechie are absent.
SC Kriens – Yesilcayir is absent.
FC Schaffhausen – Bislimi, Kastrati, Paulinho, and Sarr are absent. Pollero and Lika are doubts.
Grasshopper Zurich – Nadjack, Mesonero, D. Schmid, and Morandi are absent. Buur is a doubt.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Ndongo, Abdullah, Dalvand, Perrier, and da Silva are absent.
FC Thun – Castroman, Dzonlagic, and Hasler are absent. Kablan is a doubt.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Australian A-League:

Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar (6) 2-0

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

AS Eupen vs Standard de Liege (6) 1-1

Bulgarian A PFG:

Slavia Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia (5) 1-2

Czechia Liga 1:

Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 (4) 0-1

Danish Superligaen:

OB vs Vejle (5) 1-0

English Premier League:

Fulham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (5) 2-1

French Ligue 1:

Metz vs Lille OSC (6) 0-1

German Bundesliga:

Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg (5) 1-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Hamburger SV vs Darmstadt 98 (6) over 2.5 goals

Hungarian Liga 1:

Mezokovesd-Zsory vs Varda SE (5) 2-1

Italian Serie B:

Reggiana vs Empoli (6) 1-1

Dutch Eredivisie:

Vitesse Arnhem vs ADO Den Haag (7) 2-0

Portuguese Liga 1:

Portimonense vs Vitoria Guimaraes (5) 2-1

Romanian Liga 1:

Voluntari vs Botosani (5) 0-1
Dinamo Bucharest vs Academica Clinceni (5) 0-1
Arges vs Chindia (4) 1-1
Astra Giurgiu vs UTA Arad (5) 2-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Huesca vs Elche (5) 1-1

Swiss Challenge League:

Chiasso vs SC Kriens (6) 0-0
FC Schaffhausen vs Grasshopper Zurich (5) 0-1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Thun (6) 2-1

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