TFT Issue 3398!

Diosgyori VTK vs Paksi SE

KO: 13:30 (UK time)

I watched Paksi SE’s last game against MTK Budapest, and they were very good. They’ve been very good all season long, to be honest. The fact that they’ve been playing well even without their experienced manager lately tells you how strong they are as a group.

Paksi SE doing well because of their work-rate and Hungarian player bias is nothing unorthodox. They’ve always had the capacity to surprise teams. However, they’ve done it remarkably well this season, and the fact that they’ve not had to heavily lean on class acts like Bode speaks volumes about where this team is at. I mean, Hahn – sixteen goals to date? He’s never even hit double figures before until now! Everybody gives a shit or else you simply don’t get into this team; Bognar – or “Casino George” – does the rest. 

At the present time, Paksi SE are doing what they do best – bringing chaos into games. They can’t defend; don’t expect them to. They’ll never keep a clean sheet other than by accident. However, that attack of theirs is deadly. Consider that only reigning champions Ferencvaros have scored more goals than they have this season, and then you’ll begin to understand, especially if you’re aware of what Ferencvaros have had to do in order to score that many goals. Everybody at Paksi SE believes in the project and works hard to make it a reality. They’re tremendously fun, high-scoring, and a barrel of laughs to boot.

This is the kind of team that can be Diosgyori VTK today, which would pretty much be the final nail in the coffin lid for them. They’ve been dicing with death for too many years now, Diosgyori VTK, and this season it looks like they may finally join their bitter rivals Debreceni VSC in being relegated from the top flight of Hungarian football. Ironically, it’s looking likely that, were that to transpire, it’d be Debreceni VSC that replaced them in this division, which I imagine the team from the division below would find most agreeable!

A mid-season takeover did not go well for the club, bringing in a hatful of Croatian players that are yet to prove that they’re any better than the players they’ve replaced. As ever, the only one worth his salt at that club is Romanian forward Grozav – and even he looks like he’s had enough of this circus now. Boss Zekic has had enough; he’s been ranting about all sorts in 2021, ranging from the refereeing standards to his own players’ quality (or lack of). There’s no togetherness at this club, and they’re not simply being unlucky either. They don’t do enough as a unit, and that’s absolutely fatal for a team in their position.

Only wins count for the home team now, and yet the attacking approach that would be required to make that happen is precisely what Paksi SE love to play against. Therefore, I can only see one outcome here. 

Verdict: Paksi SE to win at 6/5.

Ankaragucu vs Genclerbirligi

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

It’s derby day in the Turkish capital, but unlike a lot of Super Lig derbies, this one doesn’t tend to be violent. These two clubs – along with most Ankara clubs, it seems – actually get on rather well, and their fans can often be found supporting other clubs from the city at different periods. That’s an especially confusing concept for me, particularly in a die-hard football nation like Turkey, but it’s also quite refreshing too.

As far as the game itself goals, I expect entertainment. I don’t think either team will set out to take this game lightly, per se, but neither look capable of doing a professional job right now. As much as I admire the run of Genclerbirligi lately, they simply can’t be trusted to keep a clean sheet, even if Diego Angelo does return to their back four today after sitting out the mid-week draw against BB Erzurumspor. Ankaragucu issued a statement of intent earlier in 2021 by playing good football and yet still sacking their manager, feeling the need for fresh impetus, which they’ve partially gotten. Like Genclerbirligi though, I’m always surprised if this team actually keeps a clean sheet.

Both of these two teams are in the relegation mire, which would normally make me think that a professional job would be on the cards – but neither of them look capable of it, honestly. Genclerbirligi have looked really good lately, and will look even better when Angelo and Stancu are permanent fixtures in the starting eleven again, but they’re still not capable of stopping teams from scoring against them, no matter how hard they work. There’s always an error in one of those players, and their opponents are seldom charitable in such situations.

I can’t honestly state that Ankaragucu are playing better football since somewhat unnecessarily changing managers, but they do look quite fresh and hungry, so there’s nothing been lost by the change. Their defence is old and slow though, which means faster attacks can do them some serious damage, which tends to happen quite a lot. It’s nice to see their attack back scoring goals though. Norway’s Borven has been finding the net quite regularly, and Paintsil is finally taking this opportunity to remind everybody of the emerging wonderkid he was when playing in Hungary. Those two – along with Georgia’s Lobzhanidze – makes Ankaragucu hard to contain. They look mentally strong under Hkmet Karaman too. They should give their neighbours a good game today.

I really can’t split these two teams right now. Both need the win, and both are capable of getting it right now. At 4/5, I’m on over 2.5 goals

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Chaves vs Sporting Covilha

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Sporting Covilha tend to travel rather badly in Portugal’s Liga 2, which is one of the ‘perks’ of having such a unique home advantage. This season has not been an exception with just three wins from thirteen away from home. They’re the joint lowest goal-scorers away from home in the entire division too.

That won’t bother Covilha though. Their purpose is to stay in the division, and they do because they pick up more than enough points in home games to make it happen. Away games are generally write-offs for them, and that was their attitude even in the season a few years back when they surprisingly took a shot at being promoted, which would have been hilarious had it happened. Can you imagine FC Porto or SL Benfica rocking up to play in Covilha? Jesus. I’d pay to see it, but only in a sadistic kind of way.

Anyway, Covilha are in a healthy enough position when it comes to achieving their goal this season. They’re by no means out of the relegation discussion, but let’s just say it would take a very unusual sequence of events to make it happen. This team knows how to grind out points, especially at home. They also know not to try anything stupidly adventurous on the road too. They’ll sit back and wait to see if any chances come their way or not, preferring to give themselves a good shot at getting a point rather than a long shot at getting all three. That’s what they’ll do against a far superior Chaves today too.

Chaves are playing well though. They’ve broken down UD Oliveirense away from home, Vilafranquense away from home, Penafiel at home, and Varzim away over the past couple of months, all of which are hard teams to actually break down in those situations. Chaves are finally showing how good they are, and it might just see them get promoted. Don’t forget the extra bonus they’ll have at home if fans are allowed back in mainland Portugal before the season ends – they’re got far better support than most at this level.

A big club tends to attract big players too, relative to the competition they’re in. In the case of Chaves, there’s Roberto, Teixeira, Rocha, and the class of Coelho, who spent many years playing in the division above. This affords them a lot of experience and consistency, which is quite rare for a club playing at this level. You still need to have the corresponding work-rate, which it took Chaves a while to remember, but the rest they already have in abundance. They’ve managed to recruit plenty of Brazilian attackers to give them the edge against tough defences too, opting to take the Portimonense and Arouca approach there. 

I don’t know what else there is to say, really. Chaves are the much better team here, they’re playing well, and they’ve been beating plenty of teams like Covilha of late. At 4/5, I’m happy to take the home win here.

Verdict: Chaves to win at 4/5.

Halmstad vs BK Hacken Goteborg

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Even with the likes of Irandust out, I still think Hacken have enough about them to win against newly-promoted Halmstad today. 

Yes, I was impressed with them in the Svenska Cupen, but it’s more than that. Their recruitment pre-season has been very good, and I only see one weakness in their entire squad now, which is their ability to convert chances. They’ve got plenty of goal-scoring midfielders but not a single striker that can be trusted to get ten or more goals per season, not unless young Ivorian Traore happens to become the next Drogba. Never say never, but I doubt it. They need a Soderlund or something. Anyway, for now, what they have got is enough for me.

Why? Well, they’ve managed to bring in some brilliant match-winners. Norwegian playmaker Heintz is one that should prove to be too good for the Allsvenskan. They also brought ex-Malmo FF attacker Jeremejeff back from his stint in Germany, who is a very tricky customer indeed, even if not a natural finisher. Lahne is seen as one of the potential wonderkids of the future, although his move to Amiens SC in France has yet to bear any fruit. In fact, I think he’s spent more time on loan in Sweden since that move than he has in France, although don’t quote me on it!

You’ve got all of that quality in conjunction with Irandust (still no idea why he’s not moved abroad yet), Friberg, Walemark (another precocious talent), and Bengtsson (no idea why he’s not moved either). There’s so much attacking quality there that I can’t help but trust Hacken to hurt teams like Halmstad. Top Swedish teams may be beyond them without a recognised frontman, but on the other hand, playing a more fluid system with just midfielders might help them be a wildcard this season. Time will tell. For me though, they’ve got enough to beat Halmstad today, even without Irandust.

Don’t get the wrong idea with Halmstad, please. This is a pretty big club with a sizable fanbase; it’s not like when Varberg or Sirius were promoted. They are no strangers to the Allsvenskan, and they arrive back in this division with a reasonable pedigree. Where they’re going to struggle this season is in coping without the players that they’ve lost, namely some of their best players that got them promoted from the Superettan. For example, towering target man Wiedesheim-Paul was their leading goal-scorer last season, but he’s now moved to Norway to represent Rosenborg BK instead. EvenKamara, who was only sparingly used by Halmstad last season, will be missed for what he brought to games.

One thing I will credit Halmstad with is that they’ve managed to lasso a couple of good players to play for them. They’re players like Kroon and Allansson who everybody in Sweden knows can do a good job in the Allsvenskan but different factors mean that other teams won’t take chances on them. With Kroon, it’s his inability to avoid injuries; he must miss at least three months of each season at a high level with injuries. With Allansson, it’s both injuries and consistency, which naturally walk hand in hand. They might turn it on for Halmstad, and be the top players they always threatened to become – or they may become flops; time will tell.

Presently, I’m concerned that Halmstad may not have a route to goal. Karim is not a natural finisher, and Boman belongs in the division below, not the Allsvenskan. They’ve at least managed to retain their energy in midfield, which will help them contain teams, and have even persuaded experienced heads like Baffo and Johansson to stay on, the latter of which is now thirty-nine. Looking at this squad, I think it’s fair to say that Halmstad will be one of the more defence-orientated teams in Sweden for now, and they should be fairly good at it. Scoring goals will be problematic though.

As far as today goes, I really think that Hacken should have too much for Halmstad. I don’t see it being easy, nor pretty, but an away win at 9/10 appeals to me.

Verdict: BK Hacken Goteborg to win at 9/10.

Mjallby Solvesborg vs Varberg

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Both of these two teams have made very fun signings pre-season, and I am extremely keen to see what the season ahead holds for them both. They both played some marvellous football at times last season with limited squads, and both pulled off more than their fair share of shocks. I certainly don’t see either fearing the other today, and if I’m brutally honest, I think they both know that they’re likely to be in a relegation fight so I expect this game to be taken very seriously indeed.

By that, I mean that I think they’ll both want it a lot, and work hard to get it. I don’t really think either is in a position to contain the other at the moment because of the pre-season changes at both clubs. They’ve both lost good players, and done rather well in sourcing replacements, but it takes time to integrate newbies and during that period weird stuff can happen. 

For Mjallby, Nigerian striker Ogbu inevitably departed for China. I think that was good business on Mjallby’s part. He had a great campaign but had proven in the past that finishing was not really his forte. Homesick playmaker Batanero finally got his dream move back to Spain a mere two years after publicly stating he wanted to go back. His performances since then didn’t do much to convince so it’s only Ibiza that signed him. He was a very good player during his time in Sweden, especially at GIF Sundsvall, but his lack of game time (and thus consistency) means it was a good deal to let him go.

The more problematic departures from Mjallby were their central defender and full-back, Lofgren and Agardius, who moved to Djurgarden and Brann Bergen respectively. Mjallby were not good at defending before then anyway; they’ll be a lot worse off without them. Their new defenders only arrived over the past two months, namely Kricak and Filipovic, neither of which have played in Sweden before. To say that they were desperate signings would be an understatement. They also brought in defensive midfielder Adu from AIK Solna, which is a signing that I like a lot. However, the acquisition of Dutchman Klinkenberg too makes me think he’ll be pushed back into defence because he can’t start in midfield ahead of superior Adu. Klinkenberg was very good in defence – when he played in Finland. Since he left Finland, he’s always been a part of a poor defence, hence being pushed into midfield. I’m not sure he’s the man for Mjallby; let me put it that way.

Mjallby at least managed to bring midfielder Blomqvist home after years in the wilderness. He’s only ever been good at this club, and his return should see him step it up. Bluntly put, I think that Mjallby will still be a threat going forward, especially with a natural replacement for Ogbu found in Manzambi, and lots of creativity in midfield to boot. I have some serious questions that their defence need to answer before I trust them to win matches, but when it comes to hosting Varberg, that’s not as prevalent an issue as almost certainly will be in other games this season.

Varberg have had some fun in the market too. Their incredibly mature displays in their maiden Allsvenskan campaign naturally attracted the attention of other clubs, which ultimately led to midfielder Norlin joining the IFK Goteborg revolution, wonderkid Nanasi moving to Malmo FF, and another midfielder – Barny – moving to Cyprus to play for Enosis Neon Paralimni. Kosovan youngster Sadiku moved to Genoa, and the club also allowed Book to return to Orebro after his loan spell ended, and he’s now signed for Jonkopings Sodra, which is bizarre in itself but that’s another story for another day. On top of that, star striker Selmani moved to title hopefuls Hammarby, So, yeah – some big losses there, although it could have been worse. I’m surprised nobody moved for Fofana, for example. He was very good at left-back and on the left wing last season, and always impacted games positively when he played. 

Varberg have been very busy with new arrivals though, and I am extremely excited to see what that looks like on the pitch. I know they have plenty of contacts in South Africa, for example, but picking up Ryan Moon was a really interesting move. It’s been speculated for a while now as to whether he’s got what it takes to play in Europe; interest has always been there because of his dribbling and speed. However, his strength and decision-making are not there so it’s very much a wild signing that could be amazing or could be horrendous. I didn’t think anyone would take a punt on Moon though, so it’s fun that Varberg have.

By far their biggest signing was that of striker Simovic though. I remember him tearing up the Allsvenskan for Helsingborg many years ago. He’s a typical target man; big, built like a brick shit house, and dangerous. Not the most natural of finishers with his feet, but very good in the air. He and Moon should have some fun together, in theory, especially with the ever-increasing amount of speed out wide at Varberg. They’ve already got fast players like Fofana to call upon, so acquiring Brazilian Jean from Hammarby will only help them out more.

Their defence has not changed much but it wasn’t great to begin with. They’ve got a lot of attack-minded full-backs now, and it’s the club’s second season in the Allsvenskan so teams have figured them out now. In short, I expect them to concede more goals than before. However, I also think the potential is there for them to score more, and Mjallby is a good team to test that theory out on.

With the above in mind, backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 is something I almost feel compelled to do today.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

OGC Nice vs Stade de Reims

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

With Saliba and Todibo reunited at the heart of Nice’s defence now, it’s logical enough to expect the good times to continue to roll. A solid defensive core is all they’ve lacked for a while – and now they have it, albeit only temporarily. 

It’s not just that Saliba and Todibo are good defenders, but also that they’ve forged a very good understanding already. It helps massively that they’re both incredibly mobile too, especially in games like this where their opponents rely heavily on fast players running the channels, and good dribblers trying to make things happen. Because of that central defensive pairing, Nice look a lot more secure at the back. Not perfect, obviously, but good enough to be trusted.

It helps that their injury list has substantially lessened in recent times too. Other than playmaker Reine-Adelaide, there’s nobody out that Nice really miss at the moment. Dante would have been an exception, but as mentioned above, Saliba and Todibo have solved that problem. What you have is a Nice attack that now trusts the defenders behind them, which allows them that bit more freedom and confidence. It’s not a coincidence that we’ve seen the best of more attack-minded players like Lotomba, Maolida, Lopes, Dolberg, and Gouiri since this transpired.

For me, this is a Nice team that can be trusted. They’ve mostly performed well over the past couple of months, often deserving something from a match whether they’ve got it or not. They’re good at frustrating teams, and very good at tearing teams open because of their speed and confident dribblers. I think that this is the kind of team that can beat Reims at home, and I don’t say that lightly because the visitors really do play some lovely football. If they put the ball in the net more often, they’d be a real force to be reckoned with. Alas, they squander too many opportunities, which is why they’re not entirely free of the relegation battle – although it would be very surprising if they did go down, not to mention a tragedy.

The football Guion has his team playing is spellbinding at times. He’s not only forged an excellent squad with a terrific understanding, but he’s made them very entertaining too. He continues to strengthen this squad, season on season, and honestly doesn’t get enough credit for the job he’s done. Not many in Ligue 1 move the ball like Reims do, and even if the end product isn’t there, I appreciate them. There’s a lot to like about Reims.

The problem for them, as I said above, is goal-scoring. Dia has performed above and beyond this season but is a one trick pony. There needs to be a designated, consistent goal-getter if this team is to reach the next level because the rest is honestly there. They’re so fast, both physically and mentally, that this is a very complicated opponent to face. There’s no easy way to beat Reims, hence only having lost one Ligue 1 match in the past three months. 

However, with midfield engine Cassama out, and a seriously problematic defence in front of them, I believe they’ll be consigned to defeat today. I doubt it’ll be easy, and I am certainly not interested in any handicaps, but backing Nice to win at 23/20 does hold a certain appeal for me today.

Verdict: OGC Nice to win at 23/20.

Brondby vs FC Copenhagen 

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

Somewhat ironically, the continued absence of centre-back Bjelland is probably seen as a positive for the away team in this derby, given his slowness at the back. This is not a team that can keep clean sheets either way though. It’s not just a physical lack of speed at the back that does it either, but also mental slowness. They may not lose many physical battles, the FC Copenhagen defenders, but they lose way too many others, which is why I basically assume that FC Copenhagen will concede in every game for the rest of the Superligaen campaign – and possibly beyond.

I think they’re in a better place than their bitter rivals right now though. What they lack at the back, they more than make up for going forward. He may not have bagged many goals, the ex-Brondby man, but Wilczek adds such intelligence and class to their attack – and FC Copenhagen need that maturity sometimes. With him and lethal Wind in attack, and support from classy Fischer, Zeca, Daramy, Biel, and Falk, FC Copenhagen are seldom short of goals. They’re too good at hurting teams to be written off too easily by how many goals they concede. They’re a bit of a wildcard, the title hopefuls, but they’re an entertaining one.

Brondby are the better organised unit of the two big Zealand clubs but they’re running out of steam at the moment. They’ve been xcellent for the majority of their campaign but have really started to look stretched of late, conceding goals more easily than usual, and not converting as many as normal. It’s still not a team I’d write off, especially not in a big derby that means the world to them, but it’s not an outfit I feel I can trust to win games right now, especially not after their draw against AGF.

Brondby will find extra energy for this derby though, I’m sure. It shouldn’t take more than that for the home team to score goals here, not with the continued brilliance of Lindstrom, and the power of both Uhre and Hedlund up front. There’s a lot of energy and stamina in this Brondby squad so they get about well, and that makes them harder to deal with. Ironically, I’ve seen better Brondby teams than this in recent years – but only on paper. In terms of what’s actually produced on the pitch, this is a very good Brondby team – and one I refuse to write off here.

I believe backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 makes sense though; neither team really looks like they can stop the other right now. 

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Hapoel Hadera 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

I don’t envision these odds being around for too long. I think you’ve all struck lucky in the sense that most folk don’t have Israeli team news, but we do, thanks to our Israeli expert! 

Football is football, and that can sometimes be a weird beast, but if there’s any logic in this match, Hapoel Hadera should get something from this game. They’re not much better than their hosts; they’ve simply been a bit more fortunate this season in one way or another. However, when it comes to today’s meeting, anything but a positive result for the visitors would be a big surprise to me. A home defeat against Hapoel Tel-Aviv last time out has not encouraged me to back this team, but the spirit they’ve shown in their relegation battle over the past month or so, not to mention the organisation new boss Koretski has brought to this team, has made me trust them a bit more than normal.

Having Nigerian forward Marshal up front has helped, of course. He’s not a brilliant finisher but his movement and speed makes him annoying to play against, and that’s certainly been to the benefit of Gozlan this season. Plakuschenko and Gustavo Marmentini have done really well in midfield in 2021 too, and Beitar Jerusalem loanee Rotman has been in inspired form too. So, yeah – I like where Hapoel Hadera are at. They’re playing consistently, they look solid, and they don’t give much away.

A lot of my confidence here stems from the state of despair that Hapoel Kfar Saba find themselves in. Being bottom of the Ligat Ha’al alone isn’t enough to make me oppose a team; anybody can be bottom, circumstances depending. However, what we’ve got here is a team that has not only lost its last six games, but a team that has shown no desire to win said games – and that is unforgivable. The appointment of Shum as manager in March has changed absolutely nothing, which is ironically what their new signings have done too. I mean, I know Hasani and especially Hopcutt of old, and neither are playing to their potential at the moment.

The problem today is absentees, though. Zimbabwean midfielder Kizito has been the heartbeat of this team this season, and thus his absence is not merely problematic, but rather impossible to solve. Between him and Fadida – who is also out – there have been twelve goals scored for Hapoel Kfar Saba this season, which is almost 50% of their total. Then consider that defensive regular Makhlof is out, as is regular shot stopper Israeli, and it becomes too much for a demoralised and ineffectual team to deal with. Desperate times call for desperate measures, but there’s no sign of desperation at this team. They look like they’ve accepted their fate, and with the above absentees in mind, I can’t see them suddenly giving a shit today.

Therefore, I’m on Hapoel Hadera with draw no bet at generous odds. 

Verdict: Hapoel Hadera to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

Slavia Prague vs Sparta Prague 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

Although a recipient of a dominant win last time out, I still have very real concerns over the Sparta Prague attack. The injury to both Julis and Kozak has left them without a recognisable front man, which is a real problem for a team that generally lacks penetration, which is something they’ve shown more than the statistics suggest since Vrba joined.

I appreciate Hlozek is back from injury now, and looking every inch the wonderkid that he really is. However, he’s up against a defence that is seriously hard to breach here. Keep in mind that, despite missing most centre-backs against Arsenal away from home recently, emerging youngster Holes has deputised brilliantly, nullifying Vardy twice, and doing a sterling job against Arsenal last time out too. This is a team with a lot of organisation and the capacity to control games. It’s going to take more than two good wins against weak Teplice and cavalier Baumit Jablonec before I am convinced that Sparta Prague can now damage the reigning champions in this derby.

What does play into Sparta Prague’s hands is the fact that Slavia Prague have to face Arsenal again next week, and thus might rotate. Slavia have two squads of players that can do well at this level so it’s by no means the end of the world. However, it makes them a little bit more human than robotic, which does give Sparta at least a chance here. There’s no escaping the fact that Slavia are by far the better team though, and Sparta are still getting used to life under their new manager, which has caused some division in their ranks as some people believe that Vrba is overrated. Time will tell if it’s a good move for them or not, but for now it’s integration time – and that’s not going as swimmingly as recent results would have you believe.

Essentially, even with rotation, I still expect Slavia to dictate the tempo here. Ironically, the points matter more to Sparta than to Slavia, allowing the home team to play a more patient game, should they wish. They’re capable of scoring at will, but the last thing they want is yet another poor result after their draw against Zbrojovka Brno. The title race may be all but over, but it’s not going to help them in Europe if they don’t enter games with a winning mentality. Therefore, I think they need to deliver a better display in this derby today, and try to win it.

Europe is obviously the priority right now but they’ve got enough depth to hold their own today too. Sparta may be confident, but they’re up against a superior team, and they’ve got to find a way to goal without a recognisable striker on the pitch, which is hard. I think Slavia’s organisation and pressing can really upset Sparta here, and whether that results in a positive result for the home team or not, my belief is that we’ll see a low-scoring game.

Therefore, I’m on under 2.5 goals at 19/20.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 19/20.