TFT Issue 3398!

Sydney FC vs Melbourne City 

KO: 08:05 (UK time)

I just can’t warm to Sydney this season, folks – sorry! I watched them against Glory mid-week and it was yet another underwhelming display. They created a few good chances, most of which Reddy saved well. The only reason they scored was because he fluffed a Barbarouses shot though. A significantly under-strength Glory team were not battered or played off the park; they held their own well, restricted their opponents for the most part, and got into some good positions themselves. They just look too vulnerable for me to trust, Sydney FC.

Now, Glory may not have been in a position to capitalise upon such, but City are. We’re talking about a Sydney team that doesn’t score more than one goal per game unless seriously encouraged to do so. On one hand, I think that they’re probably the worst team in the country to fall behind against because of how well they keep the ball, but on the other hand, I think they’re one of the weaker teams in the division when it comes to actually taking the lead. It’s so painful, watching them try and probe their way through teams. They knock the ball around easily enough but when it comes to having individuals that actually do something by themselves, they’re seriously short of options. Buhagiar’s return today is likely to give them that something else, especially on the break, but it’s still not a team I fear as much as I should.

In terms of experience, organisation, and composure, The Sky Blues are typically awesome. This is not a bad team. I guess you could say that my disdain for them stems from the brilliant Sydney teams of the recent past we’ve been spoiled with because this one doesn’t hold a candle to it in terms of efficiency. They’re no more than one or two players away from being the best team in the country again but for now, I really don’t think that they are. Some players need to leave, and some need to come in. As amazing as he was at Western Sydney, Baumjohann’s display against Glory was enough to make me think that he’s one of the fellas that needs to go.

This Sydney team is now up against the new kids on the block, if you will – City. They’ve been laden with talent for years but never really used it because of mental frailty. This season feels different, though. They had to learn a few lessons very quickly earlier in the season – but they’ve done so. Of late, even in the game they lost, they’ve been exceptional. They create chances very easily from all situations, generally defend well, and win a lot more 50/50s than they used to. This has become a solid, consistent, and dangerous team, in short.

Most importantly, City are a lot stronger mentally than they used to be. Going behind doesn’t faze them. Conceding goals in general doesn’t, and that’s rare for them. They’ve matured a lot, and the fact that so many of their players are playing well at this time is a further bonus. The injury to Atkinson is not ideal; he’d been having a good campaign thus far. I still have faith in the effectiveness of their unit though, and the fact that they’re simply more efficient than their hosts are.

With the above in mind, plus the fact that Sydney have played in more games lately (with an old squad), I believe the value lies in backing City.

Verdict: Melbourne City to win at 23/20.

Hatayspor vs Goztepe

KO: 11:30 (UK time)

I like the idea of goals here. Neither team really has anything to fear, but has everything to gain. Both like to play good, open football, and with Hatayspor’s players having been promised a big bonus if they finish fifth in the table, I’m expecting a good game here.

Turkish Super Lig games are generally rather entertaining anyway. Sometimes it’s because of lightning fast attacking, confident dribbling, and overly ambitious strikers of the ball. Sometimes it’s because of the worst diving known to man. Sometimes it’s even just the sheer passion in both teams; seldom have games elsewhere erupted as often as Super Lig games do. It’s seldom boring to watch such games though, and I’d like to think that this one won’t be an exception.

Newly-promoted Hatayspor have impressed all season long. What’s been the most surprising thing is that they’ve even done so lately without their star striker Boupendza, who has had Covid-19. It’s not likely they’ll be able to keep him for next season, given that they’ve already had to decline an offer from an unnamed Russian club for him earlier in 2021, something which temporarily soured relations between the Gabonese forward and the club. Hatayspor function really well as a team though, and they’re absolute naturals at getting into advanced positions and finding the net.

Goztepe are the more experienced Super Lig team, known for always wanting to play good football. It may not always pan out for them, but they tend to do enough to give themselves a chance of such. I do like their scouting system, too – they really know how to find players that effortlessly slot into their squad. They’ve unearthed some real gems over the years, Goztepe, not least Portuguese goalkeeper Beto. This is very much a team that likes to be on the front foot though, and one that has a lot better attacking players than their record suggests.

Again, with everything to gain and nothing to lose, I can’t help but feel that these two similarly styled teams will produce a good, high-scoring game between them. Both have their moments when it comes to controlling games, but neither are all that good at actually defending. I’d side with Hatayspor on that front, but I really don’t believe either team can contain one another. With all of the above in mind, backing over 2.5 goals here makes a lot of sense to me, hence the tip.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 93/100.

Erzgebirge Aue vs St. Pauli 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I’m not sure which St. Pauli I like the most; the one that was blitzing teams earlier in 2021, playing in stupidly high-scoring affairs, or the one that is there now, which is less entertaining but far more efficient. 

Still, there’s no denying that the Hamburg club are in a good place right now. They’re controlling games, they’re composed, and they’re scoring goals at will. It’s not cheating, having two Bundesliga strikers on their books, but it sure as shit does give them an advantage at this level. Marmoush and Burgstaller have been way too hot to handle in 2021, and that’s what is causing St. Pauli to choke teams. I just don’t see why today’s game in Aue would be any different really, even though the trip isn’t ever easy because the home team knows the value of a home win, given their traditional war with relegation.

St. Pauli are fast, tenacious, and now lethal too. The confidence borne from wins has helped a lot when it comes to energy etc. Initially, they were just drive by the desire to avoid relegation but now I reckon they’re still fancying their chances of making the play-offs, which is a ludicrous concept but their form guide and focus sure are impressive. That sprinkling of quality where it matters in conjunction with the above is what makes St. Pauli so annoying to deal with right now – and today’s game should not be an exception.

I am a bit wary of opposing Aue at this stage of the season because this is when it matters the most; that’s when they come into their own. They’re not a very good team, Aue, but they are experienced, and they score a strangely impressive amount of goals for a team with no real natural talent in the final third. They know how to feed their many target men basically, and they’ll probably score today too. Aue don’t show fear against any Bundesliga 2 team really, never mind high-flying St. Pauli.

However, I just feel like Aue are not going to have a response for what St. Pauli bring to the table right now. They’re too good in front of goal, and too good at making life awkward for their opponents. They may not be all that good at the back, St. Pauli, but they’ve become better at keeping teams away from it. If they can do that here, Aue won’t have anywhere to go as they literally only have target men up front; there are no alternatives. If St. Pauli randomly become lazy today then they’re in trouble but given that they’ve not gone that once in 2021, I think we’re safe to trust the visitors to edge this one.

Verdict: St. Pauli to win at 13/10.

Holstein Kiel vs Jahn Regensburg 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

This is a great fixture for Kiel right now, and a really bad time for Regensburg to make the long trip north. Kiel need a positive result to bounce back from their mid-week disappointment, and hosting a knackered Regensburg whose season effectively ended mid-week looks the perfect tonic.

I watched some of the Bremen vs Regensburg game in the DFB Pokal and honestly, Regensburg were really disappointing. They’ve performed below their best too often this season but I figured they’d show up against Bremen, a team with great tradition in the Bundesliga but one that almost got relegated last season, and might this season. Before any of you mention the quality gap between the two divisions, keep in mind that Paderborn took Dortmund to extra-time, and Kiel knocked Bayern out, so Regensburg not being able to hurt Bremen for ninety minutes was unforgivable really.

It’s not that Regensburg are lazy or anything; it’s just that they’re not in sync enough in the final third to be effective. For example, if someone does get in behind the defence and cuts the ball back, it almost always goes to someone that isn’t there, or to where someone had been going but is no longer going because the ball never went there. There’s a real lack of cohesion in that respect, and their lack of a natural predator doesn’t help. Whatever the case may be, despite Regensburg’s obvious quality in midfield, they’re just not good enough in the final third, which is why they don’t hurt teams.

Regensburg don’t defend especially well, which doesn’t help, and with nothing left to achieve this season, I’m struggling to accept that a positive result awaits them in northern Germany today. The Bundesliga 2 can be a bit hard to call sometimes but as it generally requires a great deal of stamina and industry to contain Kiel, I feel safe in stating that Regensburg should, at the bare minimum, lose this match. The handicap is risky, of course, hence the insurance, but there’s no reason to believe that Regensburg will turn up for their third game in a week when they’re almost certainly too tired to do so.

Admittedly, Kiel themselves were in action mid-week, going down 1-0 to hard-working Heidenheim. Unlike Regensburg though, they’ve got more depth and more stamina, which has been evident throughout their campaign. Furthermore, the mental strength that exists in this squad is unrivalled at this level. They may not have the best of squads, Kiel, but they achieve their maximum potential more often than most playing at this level through their utter faith in their own abilities.

Whether they win or not, Kiel always ensure that their opponents know they’ve been in a game against them. Doing that today should really be enough to see them win by a goal or two. Regensburg have too many issues and not enough motivation right now, whereas Kiel have the allure of the Bundesliga in their sights. To me, Kiel just seem far more likely to get something positive from this encounter, hence the tip.

Verdict: Holstein Kiel to win at 4/5.

Paderborn 07 vs VfL Bochum 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

If Bochum intend on being promoted this season, wins are paramount – and facing Paderborn 07 is a good idea right now. 

The home team have just messed up against Nurnberg, which is pretty embarrassing, all things considered. Nurnberg may have a very good squad but how many good displays have they actually delivered this season – two? Three? No more than that, for sure. When defeats like that come, you know that teams are winding down for the season because they’ve nothing left to play for. I saw it in Switzerland with Winterthur recently, with Borussia Moenchengladbach in the Bundesliga (unprepared to work hard because boss Rose is leaving at the end of the season), and now Paderborn 07 too. They won’t be the last team, either.

The home team are quite good,as it goes – they just don’t seem to be particularly fussed about showing it. I know they had the Mamba situation to overcome earlier this season, and playing without him/his replacement for a long time was problematic, but it’d be lazy and inaccurate to blame all of Paderborn 07’s problems on that. They’ve simply not wanted it as much as normal, and that’s really rather unusual for them. Remember that this team was promoted twice in two years through sheer willpower, and it almost kept them up too. To then return to the Bundesliga 2 and be all but out of the promotion race at this stage is unacceptable, given the quality in their squad – and they can only blame themselves.

By contrast, Bochum are in the title race, and I would not bet against them going up. They’ve had blips here and there, but have generally performed very well this season, and certainly more consistently than anyone else. They work very hard to mask their weaknesses, and also to keep opponents on the back foot at all times. Bochum are not only consistent, but they’re organised, flexible, and extremely motivated. They’re mentally strong enough to go up this season – but like I said above, that means winning matches like this one, which isn’t easy.

Still, the togetherness and collective quality of Bochum has been very impressive this season. They’ve relied on the unit rather than individuals, and have overcome serious obstacles along the way, which is something that people tend to forget about. I mean, Ganvoula’s goal tally this season, factoring in how good he was before, has been horrendous. It’s not derailed them though. Nothing has. Like I said above, they’ve encountered substantial problems and overcome them through being collectively good and industrious in equal measure. I just can’t doubt a team like that, especially not at a pivotal stage of the campaign as they look very mature and composed.

Again, it will be a bit of a trial, especially with Zulj joining Blum on the sidelines for the visitors, but the odds vs probability makes the away win appealing to me with Paderborn’s lack of motivation, and the fact that half of their defence are out today.

Verdict: VfL Bochum to win at 137/100.

KuPS vs FC Honka Espoo

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

I think the performances of KuPS in the Suomen Cup this season have proven to be decidedly ominous for the rest of Finland. They’ve played most of those matches without two of their best attackers but it’s not shown at all with some teams conceding five against them, even a very strong SJK team.

KuPS look fit, hungry, and extremely well-drilled at the moment. Quite what the future holds for them, I don’t know. I need to see whether they’re getting their Nigerian attackers back yet or if they’ve simply been granted more time off than the other players. Either way, KuPS look seriously strong at the moment .They’ve recruited really intelligently, as per usual, and there’s no integration period required as most of them have played in Finland before.

KuPS have got match-winners in every area of the pitch, brilliant dribblers, and arguably the best defensive midfielder in Finland in Boateng. They’re literally good at everything, KuPS, irrespective of whether Sale etc. are back. I don’t have a bad word to say about this team at this stage of the season. A lot can change before the Veikkausliiga begins, I suppose, but for now KuPS look the complete team, as competitive and clinical as any in the country. They may just be dark horses for the title this season.

I’d like to think that Honka would be one of the teams that challenged them to the title but based on what they showed against PK-35 last time out, I’m not convinced they’re up for it. It’s very early days, I suppose, but they just looked too rusty for my liking, both in terms of sharpness at containing counters, and clinical finishing. It’s still not a team I’d want to be caught underestimating because of how settled and consistent they generally are, but let’s just say that the present time is a good one to face them.

Mostly, Honka are struggling to deal with Martin’s departure. I think it was inevitable, and that they’ve signed good replacements, but integrating newbies at Honka is harder than at most teams in Finland. That’s basically because of how meticulously they tend to execute their game-plans. It’s not simply a case of lumping balls in behind and hoping for the best, or tossing crosses randomly into the area. No, it’s about anticipating the movement and awareness of everybody, and it’s fair to say that Honka’s new forwards – quite understandably – are not on the same page as their new teammates yet.

With that in mind, I can’t help but expect a home win here.

Verdict: KuPS to win at 4/5.

MTK Budapest vs Budafoki MTE 

KO: 13:45 (UK time)

I caught the 3-1 defeat for MTK in Paks last time out, and it was a terrific game. I’m not sure how it wasn’t 5-5 by half-time but that’s how it goes sometimes! It was a typically open, attacking display from the capital club on that occasion but things didn’t go their way on the day. A similar display in today’s match should see them comfortably beat their opponents, who have now lost four league games on the spin, and are staring relegation in the face.

MTK don’t change their style – ever. They have a brilliant academy, which provides them with a lot of talented youngsters on an alarmingly consistent basis, and the reason they can slot into the squad as easily as they do is because every MTK team plays the same way, which is to move the ball fast, overlap, and try to score goals. MTK are very good at playing that way, no matter what the actual quality level of their squad is at any given time. I like to think that the dressing room atmosphere is as good as it is there because everybody is on the same page, and that in turn helps veterans that turn up for a swansong to give 110% too.

This season, it’s Varga that has excelled for the capital club, scoring so many goals that he’s already beaten his last three campaigns in close to half a campaign. He, Prosser, and Miovski do the damage in attack, and teams generally find it very hard to cope with such. Another to impress is winger Schon, who opted for MTK (remember their attacking style is well-known!) on his return to the country after failing to impress at AFC Ajax Amsterdam in The Netherlands. He’s done so well since his return that he’s already signed for FC Dallas in the USA, joining them at the end of this campaign. They may not have the best balance to their squad, MTK, but they sure do have an attack that can damage most Hungarian teams – and Budafoki MTE are no exception.

The real question here is this – what can Budafoki do about it? There’s no shortage of spirit in their camp, which in itself is impressive enough, considering their situation. However, the brutal reality is that they’re conceding too many goals, and they’re not scoring enough. That kind of form is only going to produce one outcome for a team battling relegation, I’m sorry to say. Even now, this team doesn’t look panicked – and that’s kind of worrying. I guess you could say that they’re more relaxed than a team in their position should be, as if they’re just in this division to enjoy the ride. They need to be more streetwise if they’re to avoid the drop – and they’re simply not.

The philosophy of the club since promotion appears to have been to blood youngsters, and coax other clubs into paying big bucks for them. Players like Zsori and Csonka (on loan from Ferencvaros) are particularly impressive players, and the fact that the latter was loaned to them tells you how well they’ve done with kids. It’s nice to see a team at the top level in Hungary that is financially balanced, and gives kids a chance, but it’s not really a sustainable approach to avoiding the drop. This team was always punching above its weight with a squad like theirs; they’re a lower league team playing in a high division. Ultimately, the lack of spending from the club has led to a lack of depth, which has naturally led to fatigue, and now this over-achieving team is really feeling it. It’s hard to imagine a team like that dealing with the energy and offensive quality of MTK Budapest away from home.

Therefore, I’ll take a shot at the more adventurous -1 Asian Handicap, which is priced rather generously, all things considered. 

Verdict: MTK Budapest to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 131/100.

HJK vs Inter Turku

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

I toyed with backing HJK to win this Suomen Cup derby but at the odds quoted, there’s just no point. HJK may well be the best team in Finland – on paper – but they’ve got to prove it consistently on the pitch before I even consider handicapping them against a good Inter Turku team.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m concerned about Inter Turku’s defence this season. They’ve made more changes than I’m comfortable that they can handle, basically. At least they’ve kept Riviero there, who has discovered that fielding two deep-lying midfielders is indeed still his team’s best formation. I have no issues with their attack; I think it looks very strong and potent, not to mention fit. As far as the Suomen Cup goes, they look fresher and fitter than most at the moment so they’re not an opponent i want to underestimate, especially not with Furuholm and Kallman up front.

This Inter Turku team isn’t as settled as the Inter Turku of last season though, and I am wary of such. Having said that, with the way Inter Turku have played in this competition thus far, I can’t justify opposing them at such short odds. They’ve shown more vigour, more effectiveness, and are a more settled team than most in Finland at the moment. They’re not better than HJK, but they’re certainly not a bad team. In short, I think it’s a very kamikaze move to oppose Inter Turku today, even if HJK are the better team.

Again, HJK have to start proving how good they are on the pitch. I’m sick of watching the best team in the country – and probably the best team this country has seen in a lot of years – scrape wins, or not win at all. Some of the time, it just looks like they can’t be arsed – Finland PSG indeed! When they play well though, they’re simply unplayable. No other team has players like HJK have in the Riski brothers, Tanaka etc. etc. Take your pick; this team is as close to the Harlem Globetrotters as it gets in Finnish football.

Because the capital club is naturally rather casual nowadays though, I find it hard to trust them to do anything but win against weak teams. I appreciate that games against HIFK are derbies, for example, but the quality gap is huge at the moment – and yet HJK don’t seem willing to prove it. I just don’t know which HJK will show up today; that’s about the crux of the matter. They’re good enough to win this game, and the bookies are right to make them favorites, but you’re a far braver man than I am if you back it at these odds.

One other thing – this game might get a bit angry, and it might not. There’s history between these two teams, back when they used to compete for the Veikkausliiga crown. This division is traditionally rather placid rather than aggressive but this is one fixture that can be an exception. However, in recent years, relations between the two clubs seem better than ever with transfers/loans between the two becoming very frequent indeed. 

For now, I think the best approach is to back both teams to score, which should come in whether HJK show up or not. 

Verdict: Both teams to score at 83/100.

Orebro vs IFK Goteborg 

KO: 16:30 (UK time)

IFK Goteborg have astounded the Allsvenskan this season by bringing in some high profile names, buying from their bitter rivals, and by generally pretending to be a club as big as their reputation. 

As is often the case in such situations though, I can’t help but feel that they’re promising a lot more than they can deliver. For example, they’ve signed Slovakian legend Hamsik to play in midfield, and everybody knows how good this fella is. How is he going to adjust to playing with ‘lesser’ players, though? It’s not something he’s generally had to do anywhere other than in China, and that didn’t go swimmingly. He’s a clever player, Hamsik, but I suspect he won’t look as clever if trying to be on the same wavelength as players that simply aren’t. With that in mind, I’m more excited that they’ve signed Thern in midfield, who is very good at this level. Besides, Hamsik is out today anyway! 

Thern wasn’t the only one to join as a player of an old rival though, with Icelandic striker Sigthorsson making the dangerous move from AIK Solna to IFK Goteborg. He hardly set the Allsvenskan alight in the capital; I’m not convinced he’ll be the one to revitalise IFK Goteborg either, despite him having previously been a very good forward before his years of injury. Mind you, he’s probably just there as a short-term measure, really – Marcus Berg is coming home a few months from now, and he’ll be their main striker for a vast array of reasons. 

There are lots of rumours flying around about them signing other players too, IFK Goteborg, like Oscar Wendt for example. Although I’m curious to see what transpires, I’m also a bit sad about this sort of thing. Years of embarrassment forced IFK Goteborg to rely on academy products, and they have unleashed some excellent talents on the world because of it. Benjamin Nygren, for example, has the potential to be Sweden’s next big thing. Then you’ve got Erlingmark and Alexandersson, the sons of two Swedish greats, and boatloads of others. I fervently hope that they don’t get shunned because of the new financial power that has come in.

That won’t be a factor today, though! As well as Hamsik, they’re without busy forward Karlsson Lagemyr, clever creator Aiesh, arguably their best defensive player Jakub Johansson, and new defender Carl Johansson. I’m pretty sure that playmaker Farnerud has retired too. It’s not an ideal way to start the season, that’s for sure! On top of that, all of these moves are very exciting etc. but it all feels a bit Football Manager-esque to me. I’m really not convinced it’ll work. This is an unbelievably competitive division nowadays; even the lesser teams look smarter and smarter each season. Teams cannot afford to let their vision become clouded by things like this. Last season, AIK Solna were one of the best four teams in the division on paper. Instead, they found themselves battling relegation because they took their eyes off the ball – and that squad was a lot stronger than this IFK Goteborg squad is. 

With the above in mind, I’m not at all surprised to see folk taking punts on Orebro pulling off a ‘shock’ today. The odds are worth the risk. Orebro aren’t particularly good themselves but they play on a plastic pitch, they’re extremely experienced at this level, and they’ve got a very settled squad. Even with Almeback somehow still drawing breath at the heart of their back four, Orebro still don’t convince me defensively. However, where they do convince me is in their energy levels.

Essentially, in order to keep teams away from their defence, they press them hard, and break with speed. It’s simple, but effective. Against a largely unfamiliar, under-pressure IFK Goteborg, I can envision that approach working like a charm here, especially as mental strength is something IFK Goteborg generally haven’t had for a long time now. Other than in the Svenska Cupen final last season, IFK Goteborg generally bottled most occasions, hence their disappointing campaign. To put it bluntly, I think that the furore surrounding today’s visitors is more impressive than the team will be, at least in the beginning – I’ll sit on the fence as to how they’ll be as the season unwinds.

For now, backing streetwise Orebro to upset the apple cart today looks a risk worth taking.

Verdict: Orebro to win with draw no bet at 67/50.