Paris Saint-Germain vs Bayern Munich
KO: (UK time)
After an exciting first leg, this one’s not going to be a 0-0 encounter – is it? Part of me thinks that PSG cannot possibly hope to contain Bayern here, but another part of me thinks that two of Europe’s top teams should not hit double figures over two meetings in the world’s most prestigious club competition.
All logic points to a high-scoring game here though. Bayern need to head to Paris to win – which they’ve done before – and need to really look to do so by two goals or more, considering the position they’re currently in. PSG need to not lose – or if they do, it can only be 1-0 or 2-1. Therefore, the home team have to stay in this game, and I refuse to believe that they can contain Bayern here. That’s not even because of Marquinhos’ absence either, who is easily their best defender. No, it’s because the team doesn’t have anywhere near enough collective intent defensively.
Let’s be painfully honest here – PSG won the first leg by luck more than anything. True enough, it was one of those nights where they gave more of a shit than they usually do, and that helped. However, Bayern wasted far too many chances on the night with Sane particularly culpable in and around the box. On another day though, they’d have bagged five or six. At the other end, I don’t remember PSG having more than three or four chances in the entire game, one of which Neuer should have saved, and the other of which was more by fluke than anything else. I won’t excuse Bayern’s defending, which wasn’t good enough at times, but they were comfortably the better team in that match – and they should be able to win tonight too.
What stops me from backing the away win, however, is that few teams actually manage to retain a UEFA Champions League title; in fact, only Real Madrid have done it. It’s incredibly tough, and something usually derails a team en route. I can’t pretend to believe that PSG are good enough – as a unit – to put Bayern out tonight. It simply makes no sense; PSG are lazy, sideways passers with not enough energy at either end, whereas Bayern always work hard, usually play excellent football, and are one of the most convincing teams on the planet.
However, I cannot deny that Mbappe and co. can be exceptional when they want to be, and that they’re certainly proving to be ruthless if not else, PSG. Therefore, I’ve decided to overlook the away win here, tempted though I was. I really don’t think PSG will even counter that much here, although the opportunities for them to do so should be great – and you won’t find me crying if they score four goals on the break as my tip would win then! Again, PSG tend to be too lazy to counter very often. They had far more opportunities to counter last week than they actually took thanks to lazy passing and a lack of cohesion.
Tonight’s game promises to be a good one though. Bayern are going to create a lot, and they’re going to give chances away too. I still think Bayern should do enough to go through, but the best call for this game is over 3.5 goals in my opinion.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 47/50.