TFT Issue 3402!

Western United vs Central Coast Mariners

KO: 08:05 (UK time)

One condition here, folks – Diamanti doesn’t play. He didn’t play last time out, and the assessment of him made it sound like he’ll be out for longer than the news from the Western United camp indicates. I don’t think that they’ll want to take unnecessary risks with their star man, and as is often the case, the A-League clubs tend to announce that players are back a week or two before they actually are. I could be wrong, and Diamanti could play, which would make this tip more hazardous. If my suspicions are correct though, I think backing the Mariners to win here should be a good value pick.

Without Diamanti, Western United lack the capacity to control matches. Even the return of Pasquali from a lengthy lay-off won’t change that. When the Italian is on the pitch, he’s the only one with the capacity to suddenly turn defence into attack with one sublime pass, completely changing the dynamic of a match. He’s the one that picks passes to play in fast wide players. He’s the one that can do the unexpected, and he’s the one that lends composure to all of those around him because they know that, if they’re in a tight spot, they can give him the ball and it’ll be as safe as houses.

What I’ve noticed about Western United without him is that it’s far easier to hem them in, and to disrupt their control of matches. This isn’t a shit team; don’t get me wrong. It’s just easier to play against them without Diamanti than it is when he’s on the park. I think that’s especially true as Berisha is finally beginning to look his age too. Despite his outrageous goals tally in Australia over the years, I’ve never really classed him as a good finisher – he’s just an experienced battering ram that works hard. However, this season he’s been timing a lot of his runs incorrectly as he looks to combat age – and it’s not working. Subsequently, Western United are finding it a lot harder to score goals than usual.

They’ll have a bit of a boost when right wing-back Risdon returns, which is reported to only be a few weeks away now, because he’s a more consistent player than Pierias, especially with regard to decision-making. For now though, they’re left with some good players and good attitudes, but not a lot of effectiveness. I mean, even when they’ve won matches lately, it’s come as a result of a ten minute spell or so, not a dominant display. Their control of matches for the past four matches has been really poor, actually. When you fuse that with a team that has defenders like Uskok, who is far happier taking a card or giving away a cheap corner over diligently doing his job, mistakes happen. I think it’s only a matter of time before Western United’s luck runs out basically – and that should be today.

Central Coast Mariners are not better than Western United, contrary to what the league table infers. They’ve had a truly remarkable campaign, recently topped off by the fact that VfB Stuttgart in Germany have agreed to sign wonderkid striker Kuol from them at the end of the season. Stajcic has done a remarkable job with a young, unfancied, and relatively bland group. The attitudes in this squad are phenomenal though, as is their togetherness. That’s what has got them to the top spot in the table. Well, that and simply being better prepared for the season ahead by being fitter than other teams.

As time has gone by though, the Mariners have seen their gap at the top close considerably as the better teams have gotten fitter, and started delivering more convincing displays on a much more regular basis. They’ll drop off in the months to come, I’m sorry to say. They’re simply not that good, and they massively over-achieved throughout this campaign to get where they are in the table. What I would urge you to do is not to underestimate them though. Again, they’ve got brilliant attitudes and organisation in this squad, and any team that doesn’t work as hard as they do will struggle, which is partially what I expect to transpire in Melbourne today.

I’ve noticed that the Mariners have giving away too many goals lately, which cannot be surprising to anyone because despite Tongyik playing as well as he has, this team does not have good centre-backs. However, these goals are coming from individual errors, which aren’t overly frequent but when they come, they tend to be pretty fatal. That’s what has stopped them picking up wins against the likes of Western Sydney, for example, which was a game they looked in control of, and deserved to win. 

By no means are the Mariners perfect, but they’re useful to me because I generally know what I’m going to get from them. Their work-rate is impeccable, they’re fast in wide positions, their central midfielders are very hard to get around, their centre-backs win most one-on-one duels, they’re good at getting crosses into the box for their target men etc. It’s predictable, and yet both fun and entertaining too. A good team should not have any trouble beating them, just as City didn’t a little while back, but any team not prepared to put in the miles and to stay frosty will get hurt by this youthful group of underdogs – and I believe that Western United will fall foul of such here.

The Mariners are faster, and they want it more. Western United are not easy to beat, but with Risdon still out, Berisha out of sorts, and Diamanti likely to be out too, the away win at 13/10 really does appeal.

Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to win at 13/10.

Ujpest vs Mezokovesd-Zsory 

KO: 13:45 (UK time)

In general, Mezo are not considered to be a big team in Hungary, which means that corrupt officials will keep them out of Europe if they can, just as they did last season. However, Mezo have to keep trying, and seeing if they can make it despite that. They’ve earned their spot in Europe via the brilliant football they’ve played over the past two years, and I hope they manage it this season. They’ve got some stiff competition, but why not?

I think today’s fixture suits the visitors. They get to play without any real pressure against a heavyweight of Hungarian football so the pressure is naturally all on Ujpest. Ujpest have nothing left in the league to play for this season anyway, and that’s generally their perspective at any stage of the season too, rather oddly. Honestly, this team really doesn’t care about the league. Even when they almost got relegated, they still only had one focus – the Cup. That’s what their bread and butter is, and that’s what they’re going for again this season. They have special powers of survival in the Cup – a bit like Arsenal in England, or Athletic Club in Spain.

Mid-week, Ujpest beat Varda SE in the Cup to book a place in the final against Fehervar. Fehervar are better than them, but I would not oppose Ujpest in the Cup – it’s just madness to do so. So, yeah – good for them! They played well! Today’s game against Mezo will be their third in seven days though, which they absolutely do not have the squad for – and nor do they give a shit. There may be some good players in their squad (when they choose to show it) but are they really going to show up in this redundant fixture? I would be surprised to see it, especially after their disjointed display against Budapest Honved, and their humbling against Fehervar.

So, yeah – I think that Mezo have Ujpest right where they want them today. Mezo are fitter, fresher, and hungrier. They’ve got more upstairs too, which is handy because losing two games on the trot can do some serious damage to teams if not. They almost beat Ujpest in Budapest in the Cup back in March, actually – they played well enough to manage it but conceded a late goal to Perosevic, and ultimately crashed out on penalties – and that was when Ujpest actually gave a shit. Mezo don’t often lose this fixture nowadays, and they play more consistently than their more illustrious hosts. As long as they take their chances today, I have to consider that there’s value to be found in backing the visitors with draw no bet cover.

Verdict: Mezokovesd-Zsory to win with draw no bet at 9/10.

Crotone vs Udinese

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Crotone may be staring Serie B directly in the face once more, but you wouldn’t know it from their outstanding football of late. They may have lost four on the bounce but they’ve genuinely been better in those games than they have at any other time this season. They’ve given absolutely everything since Cosmi was appointed as manager last month, and only luck has cost them points against top teams like SSC Napoli and SS Lazio, not to mention Spezia and Bologna.

Don’t get me wrong now – I know that Crotone can’t defend. They look far too slow at the back to play as adventurously as they do, but what choice do the southerners really have? They’re going to get relegated unless they win the majority – if not entirety – of their remaining matches, so they’re having to approach games solely with wins in mind. Gone are any notions of tactics when it comes to defending. They literally send everybody forward, really do hurt teams with slick passing, and try to score goals – which they’re deceptively good at.

I mean, quite how big Nwankwo up front has bagged as many as he has this season, I’ve no idea – but he’s been amazing. Junior Messias, Reca, and even Ounas have all contributed in creating chances for him. Mostly it’s about understanding and movement though. They remind me a little of Benevento under de Zerbi, Crotone – full of pluck and belief, great attacking quality, and a shocking defence that will place everything positive that they do in jeopardy. Still, they’re giving the battle against relegation everything, and their luck has to change sooner or later – perhaps it’ll be today.

Udinese still aren’t all that willing to participate in high-scoring games, at least not if they can help it. That in itself is a shame as they’ve now got enough attacking talent to actually contribute positively to such encounters. I know that Jajalo, Pussetto, and Deulofeu have had more than their fair share of injury problems but Llorente, de Paul, Pereyra, and Nestorovski have enough between them to cause teams problems. Udinese still seem too hesitant for my liking, and that’s especially puzzling considering that they swapped the rapid counterattacking threat that Lasagna brought for big Llorente, which surely means they had intentions of using the ball better in order to give him chances to score. They’re a funny bunch sometimes, Udinese.

Anyway, they’ve been shipping some sloppy goals lately, which isn’t like them. Playing that way is incredibly problematic for a team that doesn’t score enough to counteract such. That may be negated by Crotone’s complete inability to defend here, but in general it’s an issue that Udinese are yet to overcome. They just never seem to strike the right balance, Udinese, and it’s a shame. 

Again though, against Crotone, it shouldn’t matter. Udinese don’t need to win this game, but they do need to avoid defeat whereas Crotone need to win so there’s always something to play for in this match, no matter what the score is. I’m sure Udinese will try to shut Crotone down but with Crotone’s potency and Udinese’s mistakes at the back, I can’t help but feel that the visitors will be dragged into an open, high-scoring game here, whether they like it or not. Therefore, backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5 suits me just fine.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

So how are we all feeling after Bayern Munich’s failure in France mid-week, huh? Part of me thinks they can only blame themselves for not taking their chances better, but part of me also thinks that they were really unlucky. They were comfortably the better team in both legs but PSG were more clinical in the first leg – and that’s what decided it. I know PSG had their chances to kill it off in the second leg but rather more typically of them, they squandered such. I don’t think Bayern disgraced themselves though, not that the German media would agree.

Mind you, they’ve all been ranting on about managerial changes this week, haven’t they? Flick is supposed to be replacing Low as Germany boss in the summertime, which means Bayern are on the prowl for a new manager. Given that Rose is going to Dortmund, now Hutter is going to Gladbach, and it’s rumoured that Glasner is going to Frankfurt, I can only see the replacement for Flick being Nagelsmann or Klopp – and I don’t think Nagelsmann would leave RB Leipzig right now. Bayern have made it clear that they need a German manager too, given how many times their players have revolted under foreign management. It’ll be interesting to see what transpires.

For today’s game, I fancy the reigning champions to win. I think they’ll be tired, I know they’re missing some big players etc. but the business end of a campaign brings out the best in them, hence their recent win in Leipzig with a depleted squad. They’re experienced, they’ve got plenty of match-winners, and most teams are not able to contain them, especially not in the Bundesliga. Love them or hate them, Bayern are natural winners – and there’s a title to play for here. Furthermore, it’s the only silverware left for them to win this season. Can you imagine what would happen if they went a year without any?

They’ve still got Leverkusen, Gladbach, and a couple of relegation scrappers to come, Bayern, so in a weird way, facing a massively over-achieving Wolfsburg team should be easier for them. Wolfsburg could lose this game 10-0, and would have still had a phenomenal campaign with a limited squad, you know? There’s no pressure on them to get something here, much as though they’d be delighted to do so. I think Bayern will enjoy that more than a team that strains every conceivable sinew to stop them from doing what they do best.

The main driving force behind my pick stems from Wolfsburg themselves though. I’m going to overlook the Glasner exit rumours because there’s nothing concrete right now, although that can’t be easy for this camp to suddenly hear – that the talented Austrian may be off to Frankfurt. It’s not that they’ve played badly, either. Quite the contrary – they’ve been excellent lately, Wolfsburg, and were unlucky to lose a frenzied seven goal thriller in Frankfurt. This is a hard-working, confident, and capable team that should be respected, especially whilst they’re still somehow managing to make Dutch forward Weghorst talked about as if he were a top striker!! 

No, the problem for Wolfsburg today is absentees. See, Bayern have replacements for those that they’re without; it’s not a big deal. Wolfsburg have operated with a strong starting eleven this season, and a brilliant manager – but that’s it. They’re not suddenly amazing, or have a whole host of wonderkids coming through. It’s taken a lot of planning to make this happen – but it cannot happen if its core players aren’t there, and Wolfsburg are without three of them today. For me, if you have Brooks at the back, Weghorst leading the line, Steffen pulling the strings, and engines Arnold/Schlager in midfield, then every area of this Wolfsburg team is covered, consistent, and strong. 

However, a few weeks ago, they lost their Swiss international playmaker to injury – that was hard to deal with, but they managed well. For today’s game, they’re not only without him, but also Arnold and Guilavogui too. It may not have worked out for Guilavogui in Germany because of injuries, but he can last for half of a season – and he does a good job. He’d be a natural replacement if one of the box-to-box midfielders – Schlager/Arnold – were out. With captain Arnold out, and a potential understudy, not to mention Steffen, I just don’t see enough of a midfield left to contain Bayern. Midfield is where Wolfsburg excel the most too; that’s where they choke teams! Without it, I can see Goretzka controlling this game too easily, and if that happens, it’s only a matter of time until Bayern win.

Therefore, I’m left feeling like no matter how well Wolfsburg play, they’re going to lose this match. At 9/10, I can’t overlook the away win here. A big game requires big mental strength – and Bayern have lots of it. 

Verdict: Bayern Munich to win at 9/10.

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Santa Clara

KO: 15:30 (UK time)

It amazes me that Guimaraes have been as bad as they have lately, at least at the back. Attacking has always been their forte anyway, but to completely abandon any semblance of control has been both terrifying and counterproductive. Truth be told, it’s probably going to cost them their customary UEFA Europa League place for next season.

They’ve only got themselves to blame, though. Guimaraes haven’t had a side as strong as this in years and yet they’re still making a mess of things. Quaresma, Edwards, Andre Andre, Rochinha – these type of players won’t often come along for a club like this. Despite their woeful defending, Guimaraes always have an attacking threat because of the above players, and because of the natural style of the team. Quaresma may be out today, but they’ve got more than enough about them to score in this game without him.

Guimaraes haven’t failed to score at home in nine games now despite hosting FC Porto along the way, against whom they scored twice. They’d be the first to admit that they’ve not won enough games but they do leave their mark on matches, especially at home. They don’t fear the islanders today, and nor should they – Guimaraes are the better team. With mentalities that seem weaker than ever though, and zero capacity to defend, I can’t back Guimaraes to win here – just to score.

Santa Clara have performed really well in 2021, enough so to give themselves a crack at a UEFA Europa League place. As a bit of a geography freak myself, that idea excites me because they’d be the most westernmost team to ever play in European competition. Aside from that geeky touch though, they’ve played well enough to deserve such an opportunity. To think that they bounced back from losing some of their best attackers to produce a team like this, though – really impressive stuff from Santa Clara.

They’ve had a bit of an edge in matches in 2021, today’s visitors, because they’re based in The Azores. Essentially, what that means is that they’ve been allowed fans in home matches, which isn’t the same for mainland Portugal teams for obvious reasons. Away from home, that advantage is obviously gone, but it has aided Santa Clara – make no mistake about it. With Carlos in lethal form, Cryzan and Patric supporting their fellow countryman, and new signing Rui Costa in superb form, Santa Clara have not struggled for goals this calendar year – and I doubt they will today, not with the confidence they’ve now got. 

Santa Clara seldom keep clean sheets though. They’re not as bad at the back as Guimaraes are, but they still tend to concede token goals, and even against Quaresma-less Guimaraes that should still be the same. Santa Clara are going to make this game awkward for their hosts though, and I am curious to see what transpires from a 1×2 perspective. From a value perspective, however, backing both teams to score simply makes sense here. 

Verdict: Both teams to score at 19/20.

Paksi SE vs Zalaegerszegi TE

KO: 18:30 (UK time)

Ah, I love it when Paksi are back to their best! How do you even begin preparing for a team like this? I mean, they’re likely to finish this season having scored more goals than Ferencvaros, who are going to be crowned as champions again any day now, and chances are equally as good that they’ll end up conceding more than the teams that get relegated. They’re phenomenal entertainers, Paksi, completely unafraid of every challenge, and only focused on scoring goals.

This team wants to be playing in Europe, and I wouldn’t bet against such with the way they’re playing. I last watched them against MTK, and they were outstanding. Beating MTK may not be much to raise an eyebrow at, but to outplay them is something completely different. MTK are known in Hungary for playing excellent football, and promoting talented youngsters to do the exact same thing. You don’t just outplay MTK; you outplay the brilliance they’ve been for a lot of years now, and Paksi have done that. Even Ferencvaros don’t dare play as boldly as that against MTK because they’ll get burnt! Paksi are just splendid, honestly – you should all perk your respective Saturdays up by watching them today if you can!

Sure, sometimes it won’t work out for zany Bognar but his team always give it their best shot, and they seldom have regrets because of it. Their customary approach of only having Hungarian players always attracts a certain amount of sympathy, and fan support from neutrals. I think it plays a big part in their collective output, though. Having everybody from the same place, pulling in the same direction, with everything to prove and nothing to lose. It’s hard to see a negative for that situation, really. Considering that they’ve done all that they have this season without star attacker Bode being anywhere near his best is even more impressive too. Just imagine how good they’ll be if he turns it on for the last few games of the season!

You can call them “The Crazy Gang”, if you’d like; they certainly do remind me of the old Wimbledon in a lot of ways. With everything going for them though, you’re a braver man than I am if you oppose them in any of their remaining games. Other than Puskas FC away from home (who will actually have lost the title race by then anyway) they don’t have any games left that they should be worried about. No, this is very much Paksi’s time to shine – and they are owning it right now!

I don’t envy the task ahead of Zalaegerszegi TE, that’s for sure. I mean, is there a team in Hungary that’s less likely to be able to contain Paksi SE than them? They have zero control of matches, solely contributing with goals where allowed – a little bit like a lesser version of Paksi SE. They do have a good, experienced poacher in Konyves, but the leading lights of this team are generally considered to be their wonderkids like Szantho, for example, who almost certainly won’t be at this club next season. Everything about this team centres around scoring goals though. Unlike their hosts, however, they’ve not scored enough to make relegation all but impossible.

Part of me thinks that Diosgyori VTK did them a favour by winning away from home against Budafoki MTE last night because the former were never going to win enough games to catch them; it was spirited Budafoki MTE that needed a kick in the balls, which they’ve now had. However, part of me thinks it won’t matter because Zalaegerszegi TE are too bad at defending to be trusted to pick up points in this relegation dogfight. I love their bravery, and their capacity to find the net, but this is not a complete and efficient team – and they’ve got some really hard games on the horizon, including a relegation six-pointer against Budafoki MTE themselves in the middle of next week. Still, it’ll be exciting to see what happens – Zalaegerszegi TE are not boring, if nothing else.

I think we’re in for a lot of goals here, folks. They’re going to go at one another with reckless abandon, these two, and I’d be surprised if we didn’t get at least four goals. For me though, the home win at evens is the better call here – they don’t look like they can be controlled at the moment.

Verdict: Paksi SE to win at evens.