TFT Issue 3403!

Sydney FC vs Adelaide United

KO: 07:05 (UK time)

When these two teams last met, it was tight. A Goodwin penalty decided it, but a draw would arguably have been the fairer outcome. Still, Sydney FC can only blame themselves for not wanting it more than they did, only really attacking meaningfully after they fell behind, which was what – fifteen minutes from time? Gauci had to make a good couple of saves but it was poor from Sydney FC, really – they looked worried about coping with the speed of The Reds, and so they should be.

I expect a similar game today, although The Sky Blues really should have a touch more endeavour about them for obvious reasons. The reason they’ve been more cautious under Corica though, other than that he’s not a very good manager, is because this squad isn’t as good as it used to be. Two or three years ago, they were excellent. The problem is that, as they’ve aged, few of those players have been replaced. I mean, it took them an age just to find Bobo to replace Le Fondre, and he had been available on a free transfer for a long time before they did it. Everything behind the scenes at this club feels very slovenly. I appreciate they’ve brought through King and Wood, both of which I like, and that they signed Warland and Buhagiar with the intention of being the future for them (they got a bit unlucky with serious injuries to both) but all of those things took too long too. Again, they feel sluggish, Sydney FC.

They still have some of the best passers in the division, Sydney FC, so if they’re given time and space, then they can be absolutely deadly. Bobo is a great target man, Barbarouses is a brilliant runner, and the overlapping full-backs provide great width. However, when it comes to stamina, Sydney FC are amongst the worst teams in the division, seldom able to perform adequately after the seventy minute mark. They find it hard to deal with pace in most areas of the pitch, and although they’re generally deadly when they’ve actually taken the lead, actually going in front is something that is very painful for them. They just don’t penetrate enough, Sydney FC, and subsequently don’t score enough. That’s why I doubt them today.

Adelaide United still have absentee issues which, in the past, Sydney FC would have punished them for. I mean, half of their back four out, both Toure and Yengi out up front, and main goalkeeper Delianov are all out. Credit to Adelaide United because they’ve brought through some brilliant kids to replace players that are out. Yengi – before his injury, obviously! – stepped in for Toure and Juric amazingly well, Gauci has been a terrific understudy for Delianov, and Cavallo has filled in really well at left-back too. There are weaknesses in this squad, but what they lack in such areas they make up for in work-rate and belief. 

What bugs me about Adelaide United is that no matter how well they play, they always give at least one golden chance away for no reason – and their opponents seldom fail to take it. That’s what happened when they were dominating Macarthur FC last time out, and I’ve lost count of how many times they’ve done it, really. That’s something to keep in mind because they’re not going to keep many clean sheets like this, the away team, even with Juande patrolling just in front of the centre-backs.

Their attack just gets better and better, though. Juric is back, so they’re winning far more balls in the air. Goodwin is as superb as ever, of course, and Halloran has finally got his season going too, scoring a beautiful flick in the team’s last match. Al Hassan Toure has started to get back to his old self after a while on the sidelines through injury, and Mauk has been busy reminding everybody of how good he can be too, especially with his late runs into the box. Outlasting them, and coping with their speed is really problematic for A-League teams though – and that should be especially true if Sydney FC are as bold today as they’re expected to be in home games.

With the above in mind, I can’t help but find value in laying the home team at 27/25. Keep in mind that Sydney FC’s only ball-winner in midfield – Retre – is out, which may limit their usual possession dominance here.

Verdict: Adelaide United to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 27/25.

Jahn Regensburg vs Heidenheim

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

Couldn’t you just hear the relief at Jahn Regensburg after they secured three points against Osnabruck last time out? The wheels of their campaign had nearly completely fallen off at that point as their DFB Pokal dream was over, and they were far closer to the relegation battle than they’d have liked. They’re still not in the clear now but it can at least be argued that they can play for draws rather than wins as they’re not as badly off as Wurzburger Kickers or Osnabruck, for example.

I don’t want Regensburg to be relegated but I don’t think they could complain if they were. They’ve made their squad quite good this season, and yet have failed to deliver on a regular basis. They’ve lacked a natural goal-getter for some years now, Regensburg, but still don’t appear to be in any great hurry to sort it out. Albers has his moments, but where is their route to goal? Even Erzgebirge Aue score more goals than they do, which is pretty embarrassing because they’re the most average, target men-laden team you can think of. No team is too good to be relegated from this level – just ask Kaiserslautern and 1860 Munich! 

They’ve relied too much on George in previous years but have at least tried to spread out their goals across their midfield this season, which made sense after signing Moritz and giving Vrenezi game time. Nobody in this squad is in double figures this season, and we’re about a month away from completion – isn’t that terrifying? Selimbegovic’s team plays good football from time to time but doesn’t convert well enough, and doesn’t defend well enough for the goals they do score to be killers.

On top of the above problems, Regensburg find themselves without both George and Vrenezi today, not to mention Beste and Nachreiner, who have both played on a semi-regular basis in defence this season. George and Vrenezi are the big ones, though. Stolze and Moritz are good, but it’s the other two that are more direct, and their forwards really need the direct creators to be effective. I just can’t see how this team is going to beat Heidenheim right now, to be frank. 

Heidenheim have issues of their own today in midfield with Theurkauf and Kerschbaumer both out. Kerschbaumer has been something of a peripheral figure this season but I still rate him as one of the more inspiring Heidenheim midfielders – when he wants to be. Theurkauf is a good defensive midfielder who is a regular in this team though, not least because he’s versatile enough to play across the back four if required. Against a better team, I think Heidenheim could struggle without him.

Other than that though, things look rosy for the visitors. It’s a really good time to face Regensburg, for starters. Heidenheim enter this game on the back of two really good wins against a superior Holstein Kiel and a good Hannover 96. I think it’s fair to say that neither of their opponents on the day were all that good, but I also think that Heidenheim forced them into that with their work-rate and conviction. This is a very complicated team to face because of how much they want it, and how potent their attacking threat is. True enough, I seldom trust Heidenheim to keep a clean sheet, even with their tactical proficiency, but I do trust them to score goals.

Kuhlwetter is back to help Kleindienst out in attack now, which is a big boost – they’ve both been terrific this season. Schimmer, Thomalla, and Leipertz do the more unfashionable side of an attacker’s work by pressing and running into space, but those two do the damage. It’s a nice balance, really, and with players like Mohr supporting, Heidenheim are not short of chances. I remember thinking that their promotion push was over a week or two back because of their run of defeats but beating two good teams has catapulted them right back into the action, especially as Hamburger SV are predictably having a meltdown, and rather more surprisingly, so are Holstein Kiel. Even Bochum are dropping off now, and Furth seem to be running out of legs. All of the motivation and belief is there for Heidenheim, and so is the quality. Regensburg shouldn’t concern them here.

For me, the away win with draw no bet cover is a good value pick. 

Verdict: Heidenheim to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

FCI Levadia Tallinn vs Flora Paide 

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

Flora Paide have made great strides in Estonia over the past twelve months but why that suddenly qualifies them to be given a reasonable shot at beating Levadia away from home, I don’t know. 

Levadia has been a huge name in Estonia for a lot of years now because of the football they play, and the resources they have, which constantly ensures that they have a top two squad. When they merged clubs with FCI Tallinn a couple of years back, there was a brief period of integration where they were a shade uneasy, but since then have re-established themselves as one of the top dogs. They’re not going anywhere, Levadia, and no matter what Flora Paide do, they cannot be considered to be on the same level as their hosts today.

In the present campaign, Levadia are already four wins from four. Some wins have been more impressive than others, but in each match there has been something different that has impressed me about this team. I saw resilience against Legion, ruthlessness against Tulevik, and focus against Nomme Kalju, for example. It’s not simply a rich club with a good squad, Levadia – there’s a lot of good here that is very hard for Meistriliiga clubs to deal with. Of course, Estonian football as a whole is at quite a low ebb; I doubt any of their teams will get through more than one round in Europe in the coming months, for example. When it comes to the Meistriliiga though, Levadia are one of the kingpins – it’s that simple.

They made two cracking signings pre-season, Levadia, bringing Georgian creator Beglarishvili back to Estonia after he helped KTP earn promotion to the Veikkausliiga in Finland. Ghana’s Agyiri arrives with tremendous pedigree too, running the show from midfield. Unsurprisingly, those two players have been their best this season too. I’ll freely admit that I’ve seen better Levadia sides than this (on paper) but this squad is still good enough to dominate the Meistriliiga, and they’ve signed two glorious match-winners so I have no reservations about trusting this outfit as much as I generally do.

Flora Paide have excelled in controlling games and defending well this season, which the blueprints were laid out for quite a few years ago now. The additions of Drame, Konda, and Yusif – although young – have really beefed this team up, enabling them to deal with faster threats better by simply being faster than their opponents, or by being stronger. Sanneh did it well last season before he moved to Banik Ostrava in Czechia in January. Indeed, it seems a few clubs for that country have been scouting Flora Paide with Marila Pribram signing their leading goal-scorer of last season in Uganda’s Lubega. 

That’s the thing – Flora Paide may be good, and what they do is tidy enough, but they’re not in a position to keep good players. They’re still quite hard to break down, Flora Paide, but they don’t have as much efficiency as they had last season because of players that have moved on. I’ve mentioned Lubega and Sanneh leaving already. They’re lucky that moving on isn’t really an option for Mosnikov, Luts, and Mool because of their age, but how long before Owusu or Piht moves? I’m sure they’ll find an amicable solution to their situation in due course but as they’re not a top three team in Estonia, and nobody is going to get close to challenging them for fourth, there’s not much by way of urgency.

Flora Paide are lucky enough to be able to play without the weight of expectation. They’re organised, they’re fit, and they’ll trouble most teams. However, taking on one of the top teams whilst they’re still getting used to life without their two best players is tough. I mean, they only just beat Kuressaare last time out – and that required a penalty from Anier! Even though I tend to find that Flora Paide have more spirit than teams like Levadia, I also tend to find that they make life far harder for themselves in front of goal than the afore-mentioned. 

Therefore, even though I expect the visitors to put up a good fight here, I still expect a Levadia win – and I am astounded that I can back it at evens, given the quality gap.

Verdict: FCI Levadia Tallinn to win at evens.

Dijon FCO vs OGC Nice

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

This is going to sound blindingly obvious, but the important thing for Nice here is to score. Dijon have made it abundantly clear this season that attacking is not something they’re going to do with any real purpose. They got shafted earlier this season by forwards leaving or being injured, and it’s cost them their place in Ligue 1. Even the arrival of lunatic Kamara up front hasn’t really done anything for them. Therefore, I expect Nice’s budding, brilliant centre-back pairing to have a very easy day at the office today. With that in mind, if Nice can nudge ahead in this one, then they really should win it. 

Although their criminally underrated creative threat Balde is back now, Dijon have plenty of complications for this game – and I am not just talking about their almost complete inability to score goals. In midfield, veteran creator Sammaritano misses out, as does holding midfielder Ndong, which basically denies the home team any kind of core here. They’ve still got Celina and Balde to make things happen, but for who? Assale has never settled because of injuries and other external things, Kamara is a maniac, Konate isn’t good enough for this level, and youngster Chouiar – still yet to register his first goal of the season – is absent. It’s football, so I cannot categorically state that Dijon will not score, but let’s just say that it’ll take something very impressive or lucky to make it happen.

Their defence isn’t as bad as you may think but it’s just a bit on the young side, and has been exposed far too often this season because of ineffectual attacking. With no way of the ball sticking up front, teams are forever coming back at Dijon, which means their predominantly youthful defence is under a lot of pressure. It’s seen off Panzo, who hasn’t played as much as he wanted. Boey has done quite well but with only Ecuele Managa to ‘school’ him, given Chafik’s injury problems, there’s always been a weak spot in the Dijon defence for teams to exploit – and repeated exposure will only lead to goals. With that in mind, plus the absence of Ngonda (another defensive regular), it’s yet another nail in the Dijon coffin lid. 

I’m sure you can see why I don’t fancy the hosts’ chances today. I do feel sorry for Dijon because there are some really good players in that squad, and they deserve to be further up the table than they are. Without an attack though, what can be expected but failure? Everything they’ve tried has failed, and the upshot here is that they now have to attack Nice; a team with a deadly counterattack, and a team that now has the recipe to defend perfectly. Even with playmaker Reine-Adelaide or flair player Gouiri on the sidelines here, I still don’t see Nice struggling against Dijon, not with the home team only able to accept wins now to keep their ever-decreasing hopes of staying up alive.

Lopes is back in the equation for Nice, who is a brilliant creator when he wants to be. Dolberg is a good poacher, Maolida is a real handful, and I love rampant full-back Lotomba, who is more of a winger than a full-back at times it seems! I still don’t fully understand why Schneiderlin is in this squad; he contributes nothing. However, the rest of the team get the ball down, move it quickly, and are very keen to run into space for one-twos. They’re an awkward side to deal with right now, Nice, even though they’re far from perfect. They’ve held their own really well lately, today’s visitors, and I expect more of the same here.

Earlier in the season, I opposed Nice more than any other team – and I was right to do so. They looked a joke under Vieira, and not a very funny one at that. Since they brought in Saliba and Todibo as centre-backs though, and appointed a manager that knows what style he wants to play (and sticks to it), Nice look a lot more settled now. Again, not a perfect team, but one that has improved massively from the side they were earlier in the campaign. They look smarter now, more effective, and certainly not capable of losing in Dijon today.

Therefore, I’m on the away win at 4/5 in what I classify as something of a mismatch here.

Verdict: OGC Nice to win at 4/5.

Stade Brestois vs Racing Club Lens

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

There are only two viable betting avenues to take when approaching this fixture; trusting Brest to get the job done, or backing goals – and I choose the latter. I’ve seen Brest concede far too many dodgy goals this season to trust them to beat a good Lens team.

Well, I suppose you could back Lens if you wanted to. I won’t deny that they have a greater squad balance than their hosts, and they’ve been bloody awesome this season. Their pre-season preparations were 100% perfect, and their signings have all excelled. The problem is that folks tend to forget that it’s those signings that transformed them into a team pushing for the UEFA Europa League. It’s not the players who were with them in Ligue 2, you know? They’ve played their respective roles, don’t get me wrong, but they can’t get Lens to beat good teams on a regular basis. That’s why they brought in Medina, Kakuta, Ganago etc.

The stickler for the visitors today is that they’re without a lot of their better players. Medina is one of them; the young Argentinian has carried their defence this season. Without him, there is no defence. That’s going to be especially apparent as another key player that arrived in summer, namely defensive midfielder Fofana, is also out. Then factor in that big bruiser Sotoca is out, and rapid attacker Ganago is out, and you have the beginning of a big problem. Then, when you realise that Balde, Gradit, and Traore (two regulars, one backup) join Medina on the sidelines, which completely obliterates their defence, it becomes a major problem. With tricky attacking midfielder Mauricio also out…well, I don’t know what the next appropriate term would be here. Shall we simply surmise the Lens situation today as a ‘disaster’ and leave it as that?

They’re not shit without those players, Lens – their team spirit/togetherness will see to that. Furthermore, they’ve still got some real live wires up front in Muinga and Jean, the latter of which can decide Ligue 1 games on his day. Furthermore, star creator Kakuta is available, and as their absolute best match-winner, he can keep them in this game. Banza is available too, so yeah – the Lens attack is relatively intact. They can live without Ganago, Mauricio, and Sotoca – for now. Their defence is in a horrendous situation here though. If they leave north-west France without conceding at least twice, it’ll be bordering upon being a miracle.

Brest have not really enjoyed 2021. Fellow Ligue 1 teams have figured them and their beautiful football out. Over the past couple of months, they’ve only beaten part-timers Rodez in the Coupe de France, and rock-bottom Dijon FCO, who are all but relegated. That’s why Brest suddenly find that they’re in a relegation battle, and that’s despite being marvellous at the start of the season. Imagine how poorly off they’d be had they not performed above and beyond at the start of the campaign, huh?

Rightly, the club have stuck with talented boss Dall’oglio, accepting that he took this team to levels that they couldn’t realistically reach without him. I know they’ve managed to lure players to the club that are too good to be here (e.g. Pierre-Gabriel, Cardona, Mounie) but the core of this team is still of a very low level. They don’t have any billionaires bankrolling them, you know? What you see is what you get with this team; sweat, blood, and tears. They play excellent football – when permitted – but have struggled to do that through fatigue in this calendar year. Facing an almost unrecognisable Lens defence without any pressure on themselves to achieve, though? That’s got to inspire Brest.

Much like their opponents though, they do have some issues with absentees, albeit not as many. Defensive midfielder Lasne and deep-lying playmaker Belkebla are the big absentees because it means they’re not going to be able to control this game properly, nor shackle Kakuta, which is asking for trouble. Defender Bain has missed the entire campaign through injury so his absence here is not surprising in the slightest, but his veteran fellow defender Herelle being out is more of a problem. They don’t keep many clean sheets anyway, Brest, but with that trio out, I’d rate their chances of doing so – even against an injury-struck Lens team – is very, very low.

Their attack is really good, though. They’re lacking in confidence a bit at the moment, it’s true, but Cardona’s quick feet, Mounie’s speed, Philippoteaux’s intelligent runs, Honorat’s knack of being in the right place at the right time, and towering Charbonnier are all substantial threats to opposing teams. I know this sounds a very obvious statement, but if Charbonnier could actually convert his chances, I’m convinced he’d be one of the better Ligue 1 strikers out there because everything else he does is very good. Finishing is not his strong suit, though, I’m afraid. Between them though, Brest have a dangerous attack, and that should be very apparent against a makeshift Lens defence today.

The above makes me want to back goals rather than the home team to capitalise upon Lens’ situation, and at 4/5, I’m interested.  

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.