TFT Issue 3406!

Lyngby vs SonderjyskE 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Although I couldn’t say it was planned out, I have ended up watching Lyngby a few times lately, and it’s reminded me just how good they are at the end of each campaign. That’s usually because they’re battling against relegation, and this season’s Superligaen campaign is no different, but they’re just one of those teams that gains special powers of survival when it comes to beating the drop.

The sole weakness of Lyngby is their inability to change from their default attacking setting. They simply don’t know how to take their foot off the gas. Take their win against AC Horsens last time out, for example. I was blown away by how much better Lyngby were than AC Horsens in that match. It may have ended 3-1, but given that the home team couldn’t get out of their own half for the majority of the game, I think Lyngby could have – and should have – won by more. That in itself is dangerous, though. They played on the front foot too long against Aalborg BK in the game prior, and although they looked really good doing it, and came from behind to put the frighteners on Aalborg BK, they conceded a 95th minute goal to Fossum to draw 2-2 instead of winning from a commanding position when their opponents were on the ropes.

That’s the risk with backing Lyngby in general, and that’s certainly a risk tonight too. SonderjyskE are considerably better than AC Horsens, and now that Okore has left, they’re certainly on a similar plateau to Aalborg BK too. It’s up to you if you want to take that risk or not, but based on how well this team typically performs at the business end of a campaign, I almost feel compelled to trust Lyngby here.

They really are playing some lovely stuff, Lyngby. They’re pressing hard and high, not giving opponents a moment on the ball. They’re finding it very easy to create chances, both via long balls and short passing exchanges. They’re good from set pieces, and nobody is a passenger in their team, which is very important for a team that doesn’t have that much quality. They’ve got an abundance of work-rate and stamina, Lyngby, and given how well they’ve performed since the Superligaen split in two, I think they’re a team worth trusting to win from time to time.

I mean, there’s no denying that SonderjyskE are absolutely gutted to be in this side of the ‘split’. They spent a lot of money pre-season, bringing in the likes of Onazi etc. to try and turn themselves into a top four team, never mind a top six team. It was a good time to do it, too – there are only three good teams in Denmark right now, after all. The rest have their moments but aren’t anything special so in theory, it was a great call. The reality of such is that it’s been a disaster for SonderjyskE. It could yet get worse, too. Their players’ attitudes have been poor since the split, as if they’re saying that it’s not what they signed up for. Unlike Lyngby, they lack the mental strength to deal with a relegation battle, and losing tonight would put them one step closer to it. AC Horsens already have first class tickets to the division below, but the economy class slot is very much open – and both Lyngby and Vejle have made their feelings about avoiding that particular trip very clear indeed.

On paper, SonderjyskE have the better team here; that cannot be in doubt. However, two regulars – Albaek and Schmiedl – are both out, the team is conceding too many goals, and they’re simply not playing with enough fire. It’s as though they’ve already avoided relegation, enabling them to only put genuine effort into their DBU Pokalen campaign. Fair play – they’re in the final, and they’re probably going to win it. Good for them! Will they enjoy being champions if they’re in the division below, though? Food for thought.

Money brings you quality, but a manager brings you the togetherness of a squad. They may have bought well, SonderjyskE, but it has to be questioned as to whether Riddersholm is the right man to lead this venture or not. I like him; I think his teams usually play very good attacking football. However, it’s not the first big job he’s made a mess of despite having a lot in his favour, and this team playing without soul at a crucial time after he’s been in charge for two years now is not a good thing. This is the kind of shit I’d expect to see after three or six months – not two years.

Anyway – SonderjyskE might surprise me here, but I doubt it. Lyngby have only lost once against them in their last six meetings in all competitions because SonderjyskE – especially nowadays – simply don’t want to run as much as Lyngby. I expect to see more of the same here, and that should push Lyngby to another key three points.

Verdict: Lyngby to win at 6/5.

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs St. Pauli 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

What’s that now – five games without a defeat for inconsistent Fortuna? Well, if we opt to ignore their derby defeat against Bochum, anyway! That really is the best a team like this can hope for because it’s what happens when you fuse the quality of a Bochum with the mentality of Nurnberg; utter insanity.

Other than against Darmstadt – and even then they rode their luck – Fortuna haven’t had to do much lately. Sandhausen didn’t show up, Darmstadt were missing key players (Palsson, Kempe for most of the game, Seydel etc.), and Osnabruck were missing a lot of players from a very below average squad to begin with. Wins are wins; they mean the same whether they’re appropriately earned or not, so I’m not levelling any criticism at Fortuna here. Let’s just say that their form guide paints a rosier picture of them than is traditionally accurate, based on their performances in the Bundesliga 2 this season.

As ever, the problem with this team is its mentality, and why it’s a problem, I honestly don’t know. They solved it whilst they were a Bundesliga club; only bad luck on the final day sent them down! Then they played in the Bundesliga 2 with the same manager and largely the same squad, and suddenly they’ve become this quivering mass of fear and general unease. Alright, unlike Nurnberg, they do at least still get some things right in the final third, and that allows them to win games. That’s why they’re still in the equation for promotion. This Fortunate side has not got close to 100% of their potential this season, though, so if they don’t get promoted, they can only blame themselves.

Fortuna being unable to keep clean sheets doesn’t help, but it’s a general lack of consistent focus that bothers me the most. I could pick holes in their attack too, given how ridiculously good it is for this level and yet how none of them are in double figures yet, but they do at least still score goals overall, Fortuna. That will only improve now that Appelkamp is back in midfield, and Karaman is very close to a return from covid-19, possibly even playing tonight. Their defending, both individually and as a collective unit, is poor though, which means that in tough games like this, their attack is going to have to bail them out. With none of them scoring regularly, Karaman still a doubt, and winger Pledl now out, it’s hard for me to envision a happy conclusion to this game for Fortuna. They seldom go on good runs for long periods nowadays because of mental weakness, as I said above, and it would be rather typical of them if they stumbled against St. Pauli tonight.

The Hamburg outfit are precisely what Fortuna didn’t want to see right now, too. They’ve been the best team in the division in 2021, ripping most opponents apart after carving out a Bundesliga attack by acquiring Marmoush on loan, and getting Burgstaller back from injury. That, fused with St. Pauli’s typically infectious work-rate, has led to them blitzing most Bundesliga 2 teams in this calendar year, so much so that they’ve rather bizarrely entered the promotion race themselves. I find that particularly puzzling as relegation looked more likely for them earlier in the season but then again, that’s the beauty of German Bundesliga 2 football; a lot can change from very little!

Given that St. Pauli are delighted to have not been relegated, everything else is a mere bonus. I don’t believe any of their fans truly believe in getting promoted but they look mentally stronger than most other teams at the moment, so why not? If nothing else, they could at least piss off bitter rivals Hamburger SV, who are expected to go up – again! St. Pauli find themselves in the decidedly powerful position of having no weight of expectation, nothing to fear, and everything to gain. They’ve got momentum, confidence, and are scoring goals for fun. Why they’d suddenly fall apart against a disjointed, inconsistent Fortuna side, I don’t know.

If you require proof of St. Pauli’s mental fortitude, take a look at the teams they’ve obliterated lately – Wurzburger Kickers, Eintracht Braunschweig, Erzgebirge Aue, and VfL Osnabruck. Those four teams are all battling against relegation, and every point counts for each of them. That means them the kind of teams you want to avoid at the business end of a season for a variety of reasons, but St. Pauli lunged wildly into those contests, looking much fresher, and blew each opponent away. I would argue that those teams are, for the most part, tougher than Fortuna when it comes to mental strength. Therefore, I don’t see a reason for St. Pauli to baulk at the prospect of winning in Dusseldorf tonight.

For me, the value has to be with the underdogs here, who are scoring goals more easily, and look far more mentally ready for such challenges. 

Verdict: St. Pauli to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Crotone vs Sampdoria 

KO: 19:45 (UK time)

I’m sorry to say it, but Crotone are goners. Every single man has given everything he’s got for this club over the past month or so but they’re simply not good enough defensively to survive. I mean, Cosmi should be knighted for the football he’s had them playing but they’re out of their depth, and it shows. 

I watched them host Udinese last time out, and the visitors just toyed with them, really. They scored, sat back, and pawed at them like a cat with its prey. Crotone were trying hard but not getting very far until an unnecessary handball afforded the home team a penalty. Nwankwo, as he’s amazingly done all season long, coolly converted, and that then sprang Udinese into life. From then on, Udinese dominated Crotone until they re-took the lead, and then sat on it again, confident that they had too much for Crotone. If Udinese can do that to them as they see fit, then there really is no hope for them in staying up.

I can’t deny that Crotone’s work-rate, desire to send men forward, and movement will keep them a complicated opponent to best for the remainder of this campaign, even with atrocious defending, so I would not start opposing them without good reason. There’s still a great deal of passion and togetherness in this squad, if only to prove that they’ve got what it takes to play for the southerners in Serie B next season. Their attack is quite clearly strong; it’s their defence that is weak. This is the kind of team that could actually beat Sampdoria tonight – but probably won’t.

The season is over for Sampdoria now, with Ranieri having prevented them from falling into the relegation battle once again. What a hero! Except that Sampdoria were a far more progressive team before his arrival (barring the season where he literally had to stop them from being relegated). The idea at this club is to sign talented young players, blood them, and sell them for profit – except that’s not happening under Ranieri because he’s a very cagey manager. He likes his teams to be cautious, and to play on the break. Sampdoria can do it, but it’s certainly not getting the best out of the players.

I saw signs of ease against Hellas Verona last time out though, as if the players had shaken off any fears or worries. They played with more freedom, which is more like the Sampdoria that we should see, and if they do that tonight then we should be in for a cracking game. I mean, Quagliarella, Ramirez, Jankto, and especially Candreva are all at their brilliant best when playing on the front foot. This team has the potential to blitz Serie A teams if they’re ever encouraged to do so by Ranieri, which is rare enough. I’d like to think that tonight’s game would be an exception though.

I’m not going near the 1×2 market here because I have too many questions, and not enough answers. Backing over 3 goals appeals to me though, so that’s what I intend to do.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 107/100.