TFT Issue 3408!

Everything about Rizespor screams “inconsistency” right now. That’s not uncommon; they’re typically a team that fails to impress in the first-half of each campaign, but does terrifically in the second-half of each campaign, generally because that’s about the time that relegation fears settle in. This season is a bit different though.

Rather unusually, Rizespor find themselves almost safe from the threat of relegation. It’s not guaranteed, but it’s hard to figure out how all of the teams below them are going to pick up enough points to all overtake them. I think that’s shown in their motivation levels lately too. Sometimes they’ve been crazily up for games, and sometimes they’ve comically attempted to play for clean sheets, simply keen to avoid defeat. That kind of inconsistency I’m not used to seeing from them. I’m just used to seeing them going crazy, attacking teams, and playing out high-scoring affairs. This Rizespor looks…well, unsettled, if I can put it that way.

Since the Sumudica saga ended rather prematurely, Uygun was brought in to lead the team. He’s managed in both Turkey and the Middle East, but seldom for very long. In that sense, I suppose he’s the perfect fit for Rizespor i.e. not very consistent. I guess it shouldn’t be particularly surprising that his team plays…well, inconsistently. The quality in Rizespor’s squad never ceases to amaze me because they’re genuinely capable of being very good. Whilst they are as they are though, confident in their ability to beat the drop, I believe they’re a team to oppose rather than trust.

Let’s not overlook the fact that Rizespor have some serious injury problems ahead of the trip to the capital. That may not be unusual, but it doesn’t make such information irrelevant. Instead of just playmaker Boldrin on the sidelines, his fellow countryman Baiano, their best defensive midfielder, is also out. The only conceivable replacement that could stand in for them is Donsah – and he’s listed as a doubt for this game too! With classy French forward Remy yet another doubt, I’m struggling to imagine this inconsistent, and somewhat demotivated Rizespor side recording a positive result today.

Their task is made harder by the fact that their hosts, Genclerbirligi, are absolutely desperate for points in their battle against the drop. They’ve put in some good shifts lately, the capital club, but just don’t have the nous to see games out defensively. Not many Super Lig teams can defend especially well but they’re particularly poor at it, especially with the individual errors they consistently make. That’s unfortunately a risk with backing them, folks – they will concede sloppy goals, even when it matters more than ever that they don’t.

Still, I’ve been impressed with the balls they’ve shown recently, really standing their ground. They’ve been far more effective in the final third – which unsurprisingly coincides with the return from injury of their best striker Stancu. Yilmaz’s experience has counted a lot on that front, and having a class act like the Romanian ahead of them, it’s unsurprising that Candeias and Piris da Motta have looked more effective recently. I’ve still been disappointed with Yildirim’s output but there’s quality in there – somewhere. 

Even with only one natural finisher, Genclerbirligi are still good goal-scorers. They’ve got solid target man, good dribblers, and lots of players that have been around the block so they’re in a reasonable enough position to beat the drop. It’s just their defence that is the problem. It’ll improve now Angelo is back to lead it, but it’s still a suspect defence. Ironically, that sort of suits my tip today because Genclerbirligi being without half of their back four should be problematic – it would be for most teams. With their defence incredibly vulnerable though, those absentees shouldn’t make a great deal of difference here.

The odds will continue to drift on this pick because of those absentees – plus that of Yilmaz – but they’re not absentees that should greatly matter here. A full throttle, motivated Rizespor might make me think differently, but that’s not what’s on the table right now. Genclerbirligi know they can beat Rizespor, and the brutal reality is that this is their easiest remaining Super Lig fixture. Three points are paramount today if they intend on staying up, and it’s a good time to face Rizespor.

Therefore, despite it going against the grain a tad, backing the home team with draw no bet appeals to me at 51/50 – and again, you might be able to get longer odds than I’ve quoted.